Sector splits - Investment patterns

[wherebee]

Building on a post in the main credit thread by @Castlevania, I thought it would be interesting on seeing the rough sector splits people are in.

I was 40% oilies, 20% cigs, 30% miners, and 10% randoms in 2022

Now 30% oilies, 30% cigs, 30% miners, and 10% randoms/EMs in May 23

Waiting for the gold melt up, small trading in and out in the meantime (profits from GDXJ and Newcrest at the top went into BAT at the bottom, for example).

[Sasquatch]

Currently:

28%   PM miners

26%   Oil

10%   EMs

7%     Other mining (copper, uranium, lithium etc)

7%     Telecoms

7%     Chemicals/fertiliser etc

5%     Tobacco

4%     Defence/insurance/other

6%    Cash **

 

**  still to top up isas and sipps for 23/24 so will have a great deal more in cash soon. Will probably allocate mainly to EMs and some cigs.

If PMs run, I intend to partly cash out and look for better dividend earning stocks.

Based on current business fee earnings, we can continue to max out isas and sipps for another 2 years and then we will want to slow things down and semi retire. Mortgage will be paid off but we wont need any income from investments at that point as we can still live comfortably (but modestly) from earnings from work. We are hoping to help our two children buy their first houses at some point so effectively some early inheritance for them. 

 

 

 

 

 

[WICAO]

31% International Equity trackers (44% US, 36% Europe, 19% Japan)

23% Aus Equity trackers (my new home country)

13% UK Equity trackers (FTSE100, FTSE250) + HSBC, Shell and BP

12% Bond trackers (UK linkers and Global Corporates ex Banking)

7% Cash and still spending down on house build so this will decrease in the coming months

6% UK REIT's and Europe commercial/industrial property

5% EM Equity trackers

3% Gold (not enough...)

[wherebee]

5 minutes ago, WICAO said:

31% International Equity trackers (44% US, 36% Europe, 19% Japan)

23% Aus Equity trackers (my new home country)

13% UK Equity trackers (FTSE100, FTSE250) + HSBC, Shell and BP

12% Bond trackers (UK linkers and Global Corporates ex Banking)

7% Cash and still spending down on house build so this will decrease in the coming months

6% UK REIT's and Europe commercial/industrial property

5% EM Equity trackers

3% Gold (not enough...)

That's a really interesting spread, @WICAO - can you explain your thinking?  For example, I'd have cold sweats holding any commercial property investments right now - either the recession crushes them or the vaccine damage impacts do as companies fold?  What have I missed?

[WICAO]

1 minute ago, wherebee said:

That's a really interesting spread, @WICAO - can you explain your thinking?  For example, I'd have cold sweats holding any commercial property investments right now - either the recession crushes them or the vaccine damage impacts do as companies fold?  What have I missed?

I'm just trying to buy a global market multiple asset classes portfolio for life, no trading, accepting that through the different cycles that I'll live through some will win and some will lose depending on the cycle at the time.  New money generally buys the worst performing asset class and drawdown, when I eventually get there, will be achieved by divi's plus if needed selling down the best performers.

Since the end of 2007 the strategy generally has achieved a nominal annualised return of 5.7%.  Not a lot compared to what the experts on here are achieving I'm sure, but enough for the lifestyle we desire.

[Axeman123]

Its nice to see other people with large allocations to PM miners, makes my 75% look less of an outlier.

1 hour ago, Sasquatch said:

If PMs run, I intend to partly cash out and look for better dividend earning stocks.

Similarly I am hoping for a run and to get out, at least for now. EM govt bonds were discussed on the main thread as a likely next step a while back. After that TLT, and wait to buy dividends for the cycle ahead near the bottom.

[sancho panza]

24 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Its nice to see other people with large allocations to PM miners, makes my 75% look less of an outlier.

Similarly I am hoping for a run and to get out, at least for now. EM govt bonds were discussed on the main thread as a likely next step a while back. After that TLT, and wait to buy dividends for the cycle ahead near the bottom.

Yeah I noticed that in @Castlevania post in main thread.I thought I'd be an outlier

Booked cost                

 25% oilies,                    

25% goldies,                 

15% EMs,                      

15% comms,              

15% Baccy,                   

5% cash-book cost      

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

If PMs run, I intend to partly cash out and look for better dividend earning stocks.

Absolutely.we've traded out of goldies partially both in Aug/sept 20 and also early 22.Ulitmataely the plan is to sell themand buy some necessity type stocks that yield.

The big omissions form our set up is potash which we sold but I'd defo like back.

I alos see us buying mroe EM's going forward.

[reformed nice guy]

32% oil & gas

16% telecoms

13% PM miners

11% miners and (mainly American) chemical firms

10% specific funds (BRLA, Henderson Far East, Ishares high divi etc)

6% fags

rest is a smattering of smaller holdings like N91 etc

 

[afly]

Quite surprised how low many of your EM allocations are. Think I need to calm down
EMs 42%
Oil 22%
Goldies 17%
Potash 7%
Telcos 5%
Tobacco 5%
Cash looking for a home 2%
 

[Calcutta]

10% pm miners

10% EM

5% fags

75% cash @3.45% waiting for either a shock to the oil market or the main crash.

The way I see it there's something big coming, if they manage to spin the plates till the presidential election in 2024 then I lose out on a few quid in divs (half covered by the interest rate on savings) but if all hell breaks lose this autumn or next and I can get back into oil and commods at recession prices then that's another lottery win.

It's all gambling at the end of the day. 

[Axeman123]

2 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

I can get back into oil and commods at recession prices then that's another lottery win

I think that is the big prize here. Anything before that is just trying to build a bank roll for it.

[F150]

LOST $800 on telecom shares

best performer is my lifecycle fund and CASH USD

im just going to plough into the lifecycle fund and increase the weightings of the international proportion of the stocks by buying the Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares as well

and maybe 5% gold miners so i can be a bodder and go on about the COLLAPSE

[Calcutta]

3 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I think that is the big prize here. Anything before that is just trying to build a bank roll for it.

I'd love to have just held onto my Shell and BP from the covid, ride them around for a decade whilst letting the divs pile up.

But recessions and crashes don't come along all that often, and I need the capital growth.

[MithrilVest]

Mostly in Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice futures.

 

 

[Castlevania]

On 24/05/2023 at 23:47, sancho panza said:

 Thnaks for answering CV.Appreciate you posting up having followed your work on here for a few years.

I'm intrigued.ASide from some differences in weightings its similarly narrowly invested as ours.there's only the finacials and IBTL that we dont have(although we hold EM banks via variosu EM ETFs)

Respect for the size of that PM holdings.Can I aks whetehr you've trded them over the years or juut bought and held?

[Castlevania]

I tried to extract the above from the main thread but failed.

Anyhow @sancho panza to answer your question I forced myself to reduce my PM miner holdings in the Summer/Autumn of 2020 as I had too much.

Bought a lot more over the next year or so as prices slid.

Spring last year I didn’t do anything. My potash shares had gone berserk and I liquidated all that, whilst being a bit too greedy with prices to sell my miners.

I bought heavily in late June/July last year. 

Bought some more in September/October.

Sold a lot since the start of the year.

[Harley]

What about asset allocations or is everyone in equity or cash?  And what are the investment objectives for each stated allocation (e.g. capital preservation v growth).  Could add age as well but that'll be prying too much!

Edited May 27, 2023 by Harley

[WICAO]

15 hours ago, Harley said:

What about asset allocations or is everyone in equity or cash?  And what are the investment objectives for each stated allocation (e.g. capital preservation v growth).  Could add age as well but that'll be prying too much!

I shared my asset allocations up thread.  As for my investment objective - I want my wealth to outlive my family and I while being sufficient for us to live our best lives.

[Harley]

4 hours ago, WICAO said:

I shared my asset allocations up thread.  As for my investment objective - I want my wealth to outlive my family and I while being sufficient for us to live our best lives.

Yes you did.  Context is everything so more of a general request as I think this is of greater importance than a sector split, although that is too, just secondary.  I have a similar objective which determines my appropriate approach.

Do you have asset allocation "rules" or is that just how it fell?

I'm reworking something similar with ETFs for a less intensive investing life.  Still using trend following techniques but within holding limits and based on a pre-selected universe of ETFs.

Reworking as I've done it before.  There seems more of a choice now, although still rubbish compared to the old days.  Looking into the details has exposed some dangers (e.g. huge variability between the performance of the various global dividend ETFs, some more akin to just returning capital!).

I'm looking for best of class ETFs for regional equities, sector equities, bonds, and hards.  The exciting part will be to backtest and re-learn the reality of things.  I'll maintain a stock specific income portfolio as well but will now have a core benchmark it'll need to beat. 

A lot of work but I'll hopefully post back some results soon.

Edited May 28, 2023 by Harley

[Cold Cold Ground]

25% Insurance and asset managers

12.5% Oilies

12.5% Baccy

25% Telecoms

12.5% Miners

12.5% Future trend guesses and opportunistic

I don’t really want to move into cash as I don’t think I can time the market. I am more interested in moving between growth and dividend stocks based on what seems toppy or what seems like a bargain.

[Pip321]

On 28/05/2023 at 09:47, Harley said:

Yes you did.  Context is everything so more of a general request as I think this is of greater importance than a sector split, although that is too, just secondary.  I have a similar objective which determines my appropriate approach.

Do you have asset allocation "rules" or is that just how it fell?

I'm reworking something similar with ETFs for a less intensive investing life.  Still using trend following techniques but within holding limits and based on a pre-selected universe of ETFs.

Reworking as I've done it before.  There seems more of a choice now, although still rubbish compared to the old days.  Looking into the details has exposed some dangers (e.g. huge variability between the performance of the various global dividend ETFs, some more akin to just returning capital!).

I'm looking for best of class ETFs for regional equities, sector equities, bonds, and hards.  The exciting part will be to backtest and re-learn the reality of things.  I'll maintain a stock specific income portfolio as well but will now have a core benchmark it'll need to beat. 

A lot of work but I'll hopefully post back some results soon.

You adopt everything (quite rightly) in a very considered and conscious manner whereas over the past 35 years I have acquired wealth almost 'accidentally' or perhaps instinctively. Basically I see something undervalued and I have bought it....the most visible examples of that would be property because it was on my doorstep and something I knew well. However, when I analyse what I have done it has been much more considered than I might like to think

Property and even some leverage along the way have been a good way to acquire wealth but I have felt for at least the past 5 years that it isn't the best way to store it. 

All I knew was I did not want to be working 40 hours a week after 50.....that was my driver at 18. 

Now I am past that finishing post (I left work at 50 and am now 55).....and my focus is changing as I realise I have much more than I planned. So now its about providing for the kids and trying to spend harder than comes natural for me....sounds like a brag but it isn't......I am scruffy, drive a scruffy car, we haven't travelled much since Covid...so my priority is improving fitness, travelling more, enjoying treats eg meals out and buying stuff I should really have eg bit better car, newer clothes, gadgets I might find fun etc.

I have a massive chunk of cash I use to offset mortgage interest. So my asset allocation is forming but pending a property sale (or even 2)...it will begin to shift more aggressively into direct shares ie miners, baccy, telecoms, em's and some gold. 

At the moment property and cash just swamps the % I am massively under invested and am moving from the Pru Fund but first I want to sell the house to re-adjust how I manage risk.

So of the small % amount currently directly invested (ie excluding cash, property and the PruFund) its mostly in

PM miners 60%

Miners ie Rio 18%,

Baccy 13%,

Telecoms 9%