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ToS in the media


With a crooked smile

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Not to be 'that guy' but anyone can submit an article on CapX for free. So it's not really any different to reading someone's post on here.

 

Anyway, this part is interesting:

Quote

I ultimately bought a home in 2016, when remote working by laptop meant I could leave London. Luckily I’m from Teesside, where houses are cheap by national standards, so I could buy one outright for what would be a deposit on a flat in one of the seedier parts of the capital.

So he bought, finally, in one of the cheaper parts of the UK... for cash. Sounds pretty atypical, from where I'm from.

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Ibe not read the article.

It starts wit hthe same mistake - 

 George Osborne showed that politicians would stop at nothing to prop up the housing market

 

That may or not be true.

 

However markets are define by two variables- price and volume.

The POTB may have prevented a crash in prices ... althogh this remains to be seen.

Howverr theyve got - and still got a crash in volumes - 

UK mortgage appovals - 

united-kingdom-mortgage-approvals.png?s=

 

Mortgages - which drive ~80%+ of jouse sales - have been on multi decade  arses since 2007.

Wiht out mortgage volumes then theres no hope of prices holdign up.

Locally to me, prices have been stuck at 2004 prices.

They moer than dobleled from ~2000 -> 2004

Late 80s nominal prices were only returned in 2000.

Id expect the normalisation of IR to knock them back to 2000.

Non prime London has been fallign for ~7y+.

Not that they talk about it.

The onyl thing that drives HP in a sustainable way is wage increases.

UK wages have been static since early 2000s, asa combination of high in work bennies remove ~40% of workign age people with kids, and high immigraiton destroys earnings.

Oh, and China imports.

UK HP has been propped up by BTL sales, low IR, massive imports of migrants and high UKGOV spending

Remove one and it all collapses.

Remove 2+ and ...

 

 

 

 

 

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With a crooked smile
5 minutes ago, Stuey said:

Yeah hands up, you might get invited to the north east piss up :D

There's a link to the blokes twitter and bio - he portrays himself as a journalist, whether that's his full time job not sure.

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belfastchild
30 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

There's a link to the blokes twitter and bio - he portrays himself as a journalist, whether that's his full time job not sure.

debut article.

Looks to be a freelance writer who at least took the NCTJ prelim course (30 years ago).

More a copywriter than a journalist.

Website strikes me as someone trying to hard, probably trying to do it full time but theres not a lot of work out there and not a lot of money in it, so fair play to him.

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2 hours ago, spygirl said:

Ibe not read the article.

It starts wit hthe same mistake - 

 George Osborne showed that politicians would stop at nothing to prop up the housing market

 

That may or not be true.

 

However markets are define by two variables- price and volume.

The POTB may have prevented a crash in prices ... althogh this remains to be seen.

Howverr theyve got - and still got a crash in volumes - 

UK mortgage appovals - 

united-kingdom-mortgage-approvals.png?s=

 

Mortgages - which drive ~80%+ of jouse sales - have been on multi decade  arses since 2007.

Wiht out mortgage volumes then theres no hope of prices holdign up.

Locally to me, prices have been stuck at 2004 prices.

They moer than dobleled from ~2000 -> 2004

Late 80s nominal prices were only returned in 2000.

Id expect the normalisation of IR to knock them back to 2000.

Non prime London has been fallign for ~7y+.

Not that they talk about it.

The onyl thing that drives HP in a sustainable way is wage increases.

UK wages have been static since early 2000s, asa combination of high in work bennies remove ~40% of workign age people with kids, and high immigraiton destroys earnings.

Oh, and China imports.

UK HP has been propped up by BTL sales, low IR, massive imports of migrants and high UKGOV spending

Remove one and it all collapses.

Remove 2+ and ...

 

 

 

 

 

Local expert. What's this all about?

image.png.76952bdd92de42d21be54675fe48e7e4.png

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Latest house prices matching: '5 westbourne grove scarborough'

15 sales found

Date Price Address
21/04/2023 £120,000 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
08/09/2016 £95,000 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
24/06/2016 £99,000 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
15/12/2014 £61,500 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
09/07/2014 £121,000 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
04/05/2012 £60,000 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
10/11/2011 £115,000 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
22/10/2009 £91,200 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
02/11/2004 £135,000 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
16/02/2004 £90,000 Flat 1, 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
05/12/2003 £79,950 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
30/11/2001 £28,500 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
23/11/2001 £34,950 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
24/09/1999 £14,500 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
16/04/1999 £42,000 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ

Id guess its bit house, converted to flats.

For some reasons the y are not listing the individual  flats.

 

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With a crooked smile
2 hours ago, CVG said:

Local expert. What's this all about?

image.png.76952bdd92de42d21be54675fe48e7e4.png

All very weird. If I just pull off the most recent sold prices for detached houses in Scarborough with no cherry picking you can see the general direction is up.

Screenshot_20230726_163023_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20230726_163041_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20230726_163052_Chrome.jpg

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11 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

All very weird. If I just pull off the most recent sold prices for detached houses in Scarborough with no cherry picking you can see the general direction is up.

Screenshot_20230726_163023_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20230726_163041_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20230726_163052_Chrome.jpg

Like the vast majority of the north.

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21 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

Local expert. What's this all about?

5 Westbourne Grove is a big old house (Molesey House) converted into flats. I suspect the varying prices are for different flats of different sizes.

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With a crooked smile
13 minutes ago, Stuey said:

Like the vast majority of the north.

Yep, people love a bit of cherry picking and misdirection on here. Rather than pull out a whopper of a riser to support my argument I've just put the most recent sold detached house from rightmove.co.uk in Scarborough. 

Anything else is cherry picking bullshit.

Edited by With a crooked smile
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25 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

Yep, people love a bit of cherry picking and misdirection on here. Rather than pull out a whopper of a riser to support my argument I've just put the most recent sold detached house from rightmove.co.uk in Scarborough. 

Anything else is cherry picking bullshit.

I'm just seeing a stand-off to be honest. People can tread water for a while. 

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With a crooked smile
Just now, Stuey said:

I'm just seeing a stand-off to be honest. People can tread water for a while. 

Yeah I was talking about the whole prices have never risen bullshit that you sometimes see here. Next thing will be trying to value houses in gold bars, bitcoin or something else to prove a collapse. 

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Bobthebuilder
1 hour ago, With a crooked smile said:

Yeah I was talking about the whole prices have never risen bullshit that you sometimes see here. Next thing will be trying to value houses in gold bars, bitcoin or something else to prove a collapse. 

Every area is different, in Dorset prices are weakening, starting to see 2 bed terraces asking around £200k, that would have been £260k a year ago. You can buy a terrace in the London streets around me for £100k less than a few years ago, still more than double what they were 10 years ago mind.

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Shits McGee
1 hour ago, With a crooked smile said:

Yeah I was talking about the whole prices have never risen bullshit that you sometimes see here. Next thing will be trying to value houses in gold bars, bitcoin or something else to prove a collapse. 

Are they printing gold bars and bitcoin now as well?

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sancho panza
On 26/07/2023 at 16:58, With a crooked smile said:

Yep, people love a bit of cherry picking and misdirection on here. Rather than pull out a whopper of a riser to support my argument I've just put the most recent sold detached house from rightmove.co.uk in Scarborough. 

Anything else is cherry picking bullshit.

The data is the data,the 2005 peak -£150k was pretty much held until the start of teh coof.fascianting.

2000-2005-Wow......£50k to £150k

image.png.d64ea15e37013b4a70c1ab0a00cf3f98.png

Edited by sancho panza
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