Jump to content
DOSBODS

  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

ToS in the media

With a crooked smile

By With a crooked smile
in Property Prices & Economy

 Share

Recommended Posts

spunko

spunko

Posted
Posted

Not to be 'that guy' but anyone can submit an article on CapX for free. So it's not really any different to reading someone's post on here.

 

Anyway, this part is interesting:

Quote

I ultimately bought a home in 2016, when remote working by laptop meant I could leave London. Luckily I’m from Teesside, where houses are cheap by national standards, so I could buy one outright for what would be a deposit on a flat in one of the seedier parts of the capital.

So he bought, finally, in one of the cheaper parts of the UK... for cash. Sounds pretty atypical, from where I'm from.

  • Agree 3
  • Informative 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
spygirl

spygirl

Posted
Posted

Ibe not read the article.

It starts wit hthe same mistake - 

 George Osborne showed that politicians would stop at nothing to prop up the housing market

 

That may or not be true.

 

However markets are define by two variables- price and volume.

The POTB may have prevented a crash in prices ... althogh this remains to be seen.

Howverr theyve got - and still got a crash in volumes - 

UK mortgage appovals - 

united-kingdom-mortgage-approvals.png?s=

 

Mortgages - which drive ~80%+ of jouse sales - have been on multi decade  arses since 2007.

Wiht out mortgage volumes then theres no hope of prices holdign up.

Locally to me, prices have been stuck at 2004 prices.

They moer than dobleled from ~2000 -> 2004

Late 80s nominal prices were only returned in 2000.

Id expect the normalisation of IR to knock them back to 2000.

Non prime London has been fallign for ~7y+.

Not that they talk about it.

The onyl thing that drives HP in a sustainable way is wage increases.

UK wages have been static since early 2000s, asa combination of high in work bennies remove ~40% of workign age people with kids, and high immigraiton destroys earnings.

Oh, and China imports.

UK HP has been propped up by BTL sales, low IR, massive imports of migrants and high UKGOV spending

Remove one and it all collapses.

Remove 2+ and ...

 

 

 

 

 

  • Agree 1
  • Informative 1
  • Cheers 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
With a crooked smile

With a crooked smile

Posted
  • Author
Posted
5 minutes ago, Stuey said:

Yeah hands up, you might get invited to the north east piss up :D

There's a link to the blokes twitter and bio - he portrays himself as a journalist, whether that's his full time job not sure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
belfastchild

belfastchild

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

There's a link to the blokes twitter and bio - he portrays himself as a journalist, whether that's his full time job not sure.

debut article.

Looks to be a freelance writer who at least took the NCTJ prelim course (30 years ago).

More a copywriter than a journalist.

Website strikes me as someone trying to hard, probably trying to do it full time but theres not a lot of work out there and not a lot of money in it, so fair play to him.

  • Informative 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
CVG

CVG

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, spygirl said:

Ibe not read the article.

It starts wit hthe same mistake - 

 George Osborne showed that politicians would stop at nothing to prop up the housing market

 

That may or not be true.

 

However markets are define by two variables- price and volume.

The POTB may have prevented a crash in prices ... althogh this remains to be seen.

Howverr theyve got - and still got a crash in volumes - 

UK mortgage appovals - 

united-kingdom-mortgage-approvals.png?s=

 

Mortgages - which drive ~80%+ of jouse sales - have been on multi decade  arses since 2007.

Wiht out mortgage volumes then theres no hope of prices holdign up.

Locally to me, prices have been stuck at 2004 prices.

They moer than dobleled from ~2000 -> 2004

Late 80s nominal prices were only returned in 2000.

Id expect the normalisation of IR to knock them back to 2000.

Non prime London has been fallign for ~7y+.

Not that they talk about it.

The onyl thing that drives HP in a sustainable way is wage increases.

UK wages have been static since early 2000s, asa combination of high in work bennies remove ~40% of workign age people with kids, and high immigraiton destroys earnings.

Oh, and China imports.

UK HP has been propped up by BTL sales, low IR, massive imports of migrants and high UKGOV spending

Remove one and it all collapses.

Remove 2+ and ...

 

 

 

 

 

Local expert. What's this all about?

image.png.76952bdd92de42d21be54675fe48e7e4.png

  • Informative 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
spygirl

spygirl

Posted
Posted

Latest house prices matching: '5 westbourne grove scarborough'

15 sales found

Date Price Address
21/04/2023 £120,000 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
08/09/2016 £95,000 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
24/06/2016 £99,000 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
15/12/2014 £61,500 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
09/07/2014 £121,000 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
04/05/2012 £60,000 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
10/11/2011 £115,000 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
22/10/2009 £91,200 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
02/11/2004 £135,000 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
16/02/2004 £90,000 Flat 1, 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
05/12/2003 £79,950 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
30/11/2001 £28,500 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
23/11/2001 £34,950 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
24/09/1999 £14,500 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ
16/04/1999 £42,000 5 Westbourne Grove, Scarborough, YO11 2DJ

Id guess its bit house, converted to flats.

For some reasons the y are not listing the individual  flats.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
With a crooked smile

With a crooked smile

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Won't be popular on hear but you can see the direction the government is already thinking about going in. Relaxing lending requirements https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fpersonal-banking%2Fmortgages%2Fministers-look-to-dutch-style-mortgages-to-fix-first-time%2F

  • Informative 1
  • Vomit 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
With a crooked smile

With a crooked smile

Posted
  • Author
Posted
2 hours ago, CVG said:

Local expert. What's this all about?

image.png.76952bdd92de42d21be54675fe48e7e4.png

All very weird. If I just pull off the most recent sold prices for detached houses in Scarborough with no cherry picking you can see the general direction is up.

Screenshot_20230726_163023_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20230726_163041_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20230726_163052_Chrome.jpg

  • Cheers 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stuey

Stuey

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

All very weird. If I just pull off the most recent sold prices for detached houses in Scarborough with no cherry picking you can see the general direction is up.

Screenshot_20230726_163023_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20230726_163041_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20230726_163052_Chrome.jpg

Like the vast majority of the north.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Option5

Option5

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

Local expert. What's this all about?

5 Westbourne Grove is a big old house (Molesey House) converted into flats. I suspect the varying prices are for different flats of different sizes.

  • Informative 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
With a crooked smile

With a crooked smile

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Stuey said:

Like the vast majority of the north.

Yep, people love a bit of cherry picking and misdirection on here. Rather than pull out a whopper of a riser to support my argument I've just put the most recent sold detached house from rightmove.co.uk in Scarborough. 

Anything else is cherry picking bullshit.

Edited by With a crooked smile
  • Informative 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stuey

Stuey

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

Yep, people love a bit of cherry picking and misdirection on here. Rather than pull out a whopper of a riser to support my argument I've just put the most recent sold detached house from rightmove.co.uk in Scarborough. 

Anything else is cherry picking bullshit.

I'm just seeing a stand-off to be honest. People can tread water for a while. 

  • Agree 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
With a crooked smile

With a crooked smile

Posted
  • Author
Posted
Just now, Stuey said:

I'm just seeing a stand-off to be honest. People can tread water for a while. 

Yeah I was talking about the whole prices have never risen bullshit that you sometimes see here. Next thing will be trying to value houses in gold bars, bitcoin or something else to prove a collapse. 

  • Lol 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bobthebuilder

Bobthebuilder

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, With a crooked smile said:

Yeah I was talking about the whole prices have never risen bullshit that you sometimes see here. Next thing will be trying to value houses in gold bars, bitcoin or something else to prove a collapse. 

Every area is different, in Dorset prices are weakening, starting to see 2 bed terraces asking around £200k, that would have been £260k a year ago. You can buy a terrace in the London streets around me for £100k less than a few years ago, still more than double what they were 10 years ago mind.

  • Agree 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Loki

Loki

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, With a crooked smile said:

Yeah I was talking about the whole prices have never risen bullshit that you sometimes see here. Next thing will be trying to value houses in gold bars, bitcoin or something else to prove a collapse. 

Are they printing gold bars and bitcoin now as well?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
sancho panza

sancho panza

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 26/07/2023 at 16:58, With a crooked smile said:

Yep, people love a bit of cherry picking and misdirection on here. Rather than pull out a whopper of a riser to support my argument I've just put the most recent sold detached house from rightmove.co.uk in Scarborough. 

Anything else is cherry picking bullshit.

The data is the data,the 2005 peak -£150k was pretty much held until the start of teh coof.fascianting.

2000-2005-Wow......£50k to £150k

image.png.d64ea15e37013b4a70c1ab0a00cf3f98.png

Edited by sancho panza
  • Informative 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
With a crooked smile

With a crooked smile

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

The data is the data

image.png.d64ea15e37013b4a70c1ab0a00cf3f98.png

Nicely collated @sancho panza. So we can clearly see Scarborough prices certainly aren't at early 2000 levels.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

  • Latest threads

×
×
  • Create New...