Housing in 20 year's time

[Wight Flight]

I think possibly an interesting subject as most of us will be reaching the point in our lives where we need to consider where we want to live to see out our days.

But if we have imported another 15m people, but only built 1.5 million houses things might be very different to now.

The boomer streets of 4 bed houses could become hmo central.

Three bed terraces will house three families.

Flats will be full of scum.

Any street with decent gardens will see huge infill.

Roads of bungalows with gardens will be knocked down for higher density housing.

What should we be thinking about living in if we want a peaceful later life?

[JoeDavola]

11 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Flats will be full of scum.

I wouldn't be so sure of that; unless you count half the population as scum.

I could see most people living in flats in 20 years if house prices continue to rise beyond wages, as it'll be the only thing they can build in large enough numbers to house people.

[Wight Flight]

1 minute ago, JoeDavola said:

I wouldn't be so sure of that; unless you count half the population as scum.

I could see most people living in flats in 20 years if house prices continue to rise beyond wages, as it'll be the only thing they can build in large enough numbers to house people.

Ok. The average block of flats will be full of scum.

I think the position to be in is somewhere with a very high price per square metre, as that will be the metric that will be most important to people farmers.

[JoeDavola]

1 minute ago, Wight Flight said:

I think the position to be in is somewhere with a very high price per square metre

Ah so to live a good life in later life you'll need to be wealthy.

Shocked I tell ya, shocked.

[Wight Flight]

Just now, JoeDavola said:

Ah so to live a good life in later life you'll need to be wealthy.

Shocked I tell ya, shocked.

No.

You need to think about the space you need. A high quality two bedder that costs the same as a lower quality three bedder might be a wise choice. The reason for the higher price per square metre is important.

[JoeDavola]

5 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

No.

You need to think about the space you need. A high quality two bedder that costs the same as a lower quality three bedder might be a wise choice. The reason for the higher price per square metre is important.

I think this is already happening.

Though it sounds like your sacrificing space to be near a better class of people; I’d sacrifice space to be nearer sonething I enjoyed being near E.g a beach or coastal path.

[Wight Flight]

1 minute ago, JoeDavola said:

I think this is already happening.

Though it sounds like your sacrificing space to be near a better class of people; I’d sacrifice space to be nearer sonething I enjoyed being near E.g a beach or coastal path.

Same thing.

I am sacrificing space for view and peace and quiet. And being 200 yards from the beach and coastal path 

 

 

[Harley]

11 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

I think possibly an interesting subject as most of us will be reaching the point in our lives where we need to consider where we want to live to see out our days.

But if we have imported another 15m people, but only built 1.5 million houses things might be very different to now.

The boomer streets of 4 bed houses could become hmo central.

Three bed terraces will house three families.

Flats will be full of scum.

Any street with decent gardens will see huge infill.

Roads of bungalows with gardens will be knocked down for higher density housing.

What should we be thinking about living in if we want a peaceful later life?

Already happened to my mil.  Hmo next door.

[Wight Flight]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

Already happened to my mil.  Hmo next door.

It can be little things. My MIL bought her current place when she was mid twenties. Nice three bed semi and the whole street was similar people, couple of kids popped out and maybe one car.

Amazingly most stayed for many years, but as they have started to die off they have been bought by multi generational families so three and often four cars per house.

Parking is now a total nightmare, and it is no longer a nice quiet street.

[Harley]

Germany seems to have more flats than us.  Some blocks are quite old, spacious, communal heating, etc.  IME works well but they are used to living closer together, respecting others, housekeeper, rent control, decent legal framework, rules, etc so would need some adjustment from your average Brit.

[Frank Hovis]

15 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

What should we be thinking about living in if we want a peaceful later life?

 

Funnily enough I was talking about this yesterday.

The below is an area of Wheal Rose near Scorrier.  Anyone who knows Cornwall will be singulalry unimpressed in hearing Scorrier.

However..  through the yard of Brian Etherington's Meats on Westway (a reasonably busy road) runs a very non-obvious farm track, which Google Maps is showing as a road.  Nobody driving past would think that there was even a farm track there.

This branches off left to two substantial houses and carries on to another two where "Honeysuckle Cottage" is marked.

Each house has land where they keep horses and I always saw dogs there as well.  Country pursuits in your own little part of the country.

They aren't isolated as each is very near a similar house and it isn't much distance to the other two houses.

They are though totally quiet and you have your own world there which you are only sharing with your neighbours.  They are in a sheltered valley with mature trees.

I can't ever see these changing with new development or character, and 99% of the people living within a few miles would not know that they are there.

The reason I know is that back when you were required to return your electoral form, even with no changes, they often didn't because they so rarely left their house and land so I would visit.  The postcode just takes you to the main road above these houses so it required Google Maps to actually find them.

I could happily live there, and they are only maybe ten or fifteen minute's drive from the major centre (for Cornwall) of Camborne / Redruth.

I am sure that there will be places like this in every county, though by their very nature you are unlikely to have heard of them and will need to wait until they come up on RM or similar in order to find them.

 

Edited January 23 by Frank Hovis

[King Penda]

Just buy this your plot won’t get compulsory purchased for flats however your bedroom might vanish down pit.https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/141062606?utm_campaign=property-details&utm_content=buying&utm_medium=sharing&utm_source=copytoclipboard#/&channel=RES_BUY

[onlyme]

6 hours ago, Harley said:

Germany seems to have more flats than us.  Some blocks are quite old, spacious, communal heating, etc.  IME works well but they are used to living closer together, respecting others, housekeeper, rent control, decent legal framework, rules, etc so would need some adjustment from your average Brit.

There are some interesting question aound which is more sustainable in the long term - large blocks or small individual dwellings.

Large maintenance / structural / any other signficant works are a total PITA with large communal blocks - total disruption or move out the whole occupancy and do the works. The result is that I suspect most are run on a make do and mend basis pretty  much and in nearly all cases be pulled down over a rather shorter timescale than individual homes and small blocks. Individual homes can and have been through history be piecemeal updated over many hundreds of years. Some modern new build estates with 50 year design life might be an exception of course.

What happens if some of the mass building projects of the 60's  suffer concrete cancer type issues over a period of a few decades?

[onlyme]

6 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

It can be little things. My MIL bought her current place when she was mid twenties. Nice three bed semi and the whole street was similar people, couple of kids popped out and maybe one car.

Amazingly most stayed for many years, but as they have started to die off they have been bought by multi generational families so three and often four cars per house.

Parking is now a total nightmare, and it is no longer a nice quiet street.

First house was in an area like that, where a whole generation seemed to have bought and stayed, moved out as they all started to die out quite rapidly and the area went BTL.

[TNS]

The future...

[Joncrete Cungle]

[Boon]

It kind of makes sense in cities, vast blocks of Japanese style micro apartments. 
Disued Debenhams store could cram in 1000s, have central services on the ground floor. 

The BTR strategy is pretty much the same on all operators - target affluent young people, charge top market rents, low usage factors for their buildings - better to get 50% at £2k than 100% at, say £1.2k

A Ryanair-type disruptor isn't gonna happen now, too many vested interests against it, but who knows in future, the ability to create 1000s of units quickly might outweigh the downsides. It could even work like the plane tickets, very low headline rate but pay for virtually everything else at high rates. Ie. £10 a night, 50p/unit electirictiy, 1p a liter of water, £1 to dump a black rubbish bag in the bin room.

The ESG lovers would be wetting their pants at how it would then cause people to consider their behaviour.

Of course most Brits and the bennies aren't gonna adapt well to living in such places and lack the manners the Japs have to make it work. CBDCs might offer enough power to get people to behave.

[Loki]

33 minutes ago, Boon said:

It kind of makes sense in cities, vast blocks of Japanese style micro apartments. 
Disued Debenhams store could cram in 1000s, have central services on the ground floor. 

The BTR strategy is pretty much the same on all operators - target affluent young people, charge top market rents, low usage factors for their buildings - better to get 50% at £2k than 100% at, say £1.2k

A Ryanair-type disruptor isn't gonna happen now, too many vested interests against it, but who knows in future, the ability to create 1000s of units quickly might outweigh the downsides. It could even work like the plane tickets, very low headline rate but pay for virtually everything else at high rates. Ie. £10 a night, 50p/unit electirictiy, 1p a liter of water, £1 to dump a black rubbish bag in the bin room.

The ESG lovers would be wetting their pants at how it would then cause people to consider their behaviour.

Of course most Brits and the bennies aren't gonna adapt well to living in such places and lack the manners the Japs have to make it work. CBDCs might offer enough power to get people to behave.

If it's a shared suicide pod I'm not interested 

[Wight Flight]

2 hours ago, King Penda said:

Just buy this your plot won’t get compulsory purchased for flats however your bedroom might vanish down pit.https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/141062606?utm_campaign=property-details&utm_content=buying&utm_medium=sharing&utm_source=copytoclipboard#/&channel=RES_BUY

Well yes, that is a consideration.

You need to ask not only is your house going to fall off the cliff, but also is the house above you going to land on you.

Once you are clear on that you need to know if there will be any roads out of town left in 20 year's time.

[Ash4781b]

On 22/01/2024 at 20:11, Wight Flight said:

I think possibly an interesting subject as most of us will be reaching the point in our lives where we need to consider where we want to live to see out our days.

But if we have imported another 15m people, but only built 1.5 million houses things might be very different to now.

The boomer streets of 4 bed houses could become hmo central.

Three bed terraces will house three families.

Flats will be full of scum.

Any street with decent gardens will see huge infill.

Roads of bungalows with gardens will be knocked down for higher density housing.

What should we be thinking about living in if we want a peaceful later life?

It will be interesting what they do to the infrastructure as this population will require servicing including massive food imports, schools, hospitals . Just thinking roads alot more will need to be built for the increase in cars and or need to ration car use else total gridlock. Which in my experience is here now after decades of under investment. I think what they wanted to do was get everyone over onto electric and that way they can ration car use. won’t be able to get petrol.
 

Back on topic I guess. It’s trying to spot where the new HMO ghetto towns will develop. Likely in South east surrounding London I think. Kent  not looking good tbh due in part to arrival likely start destinations. Suffolk , Norfolk might be the good bet as will be last to hold out I think. Slower pace of life but will be expensive as people move out. London I can’t tell because they might funnel more and more investment there will be excellent areas and then the no go areas (so no change)

Edited January 24 by Ash4781b

[Bear Hug]

18 hours ago, TNS said:

The future...

Is this red light district in Amsterdam? 

[nirvana]

Irrelevant......most of the population will be dead due to the pole shift......

Go long Arcs and yachts

[TNS]

4 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

Is this red light district in Amsterdam? 

Chinese airport.

Edited January 24 by TNS

[Frank Hovis]

2 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

Just thinking roads alot more will need to be built for the increase in cars and or need to ration car use else total gridlock. Which in my experience is here now after decades of under investment. I think what they wanted to do was get everyone over onto electric and that way they can ration car use. won’t be able to get petrol.

 

Hence the anti-motorist agenda.

If you can stop the population moving about so much then you can add more without a problem.

The lockdowns gave us a taste, where it was illegal to drive to the next town, and a previous Cornwall Councillor for Transport, an eco-loon who doesn't drive, clearly stated that the goal was to have everyone working in the same town in which they lived, the fifteen minute cities.

EVs was another attempt to do this by pricing a lot of people out car ownership, as you can run an ICE car for several years even if it only cost £2k, but a £2k EV is only that price because it needs a new battery costing anything from £6k - £18k.

My major bugbear with tourists is the gridlock that they cause, but if they are priced out of cars and instead ferried by charabanc and decanted into holiday camps then there they will remain for their two weeks and I won't even notice them.

And when the dust settles the remaining ?10% who can still afford a car will be able to breeze around the country on the empty motorways.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

9 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Hence the anti-motorist agenda.

If you can stop the population moving about so much then you can add more without a problem.

The lockdowns gave us a taste, where it was illegal to drive to the next town, and a previous Cornwall Councillor for Transport, an eco-loon who doesn't drive, clearly stated that the goal was to have everyone working in the same town in which they lived, the fifteen minute cities.

EVs was another attempt to do this by pricing a lot of people out car ownership, as you can run an ICE car for several years even if it only cost £2k, but a £2k EV is only that price because it needs a new battery costing anything from £6k - £18k.

My major bugbear with tourists is the gridlock that they cause, but if they are priced out of cars and instead ferried by charabanc and decanted into holiday camps then there they will remain for their two weeks and I won't even notice them.

And when the dust settles the remaining ?10% who can still afford a car will be able to breeze around the country on the empty motorways.

You missed out insurance costs.

They want more worker bees but all confined to their hives.

I expect that small houses will become higher status. Obviously the very rich will still have big detached houses but affording a small house as opposed to a flat will be the preserve of the middle class. Small terraces that cannot be turned into HMOs or even two flats will remain single homes. In deprived areas they can be bought wholesale, knocked down and replaced. Not easily done in more affluent areas.