Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Harley]

4 hours ago, Mandalorian said:

Starmer and his goons will be taking that too.  Or the tax free status at any rate - so then they take the rest by CGT or dividend tax.

How the feck do you manage to get up in the morning!   All is possible, react accordingly, having first set the bug out routes.  But feck no, I ain't just sitting there to accept certain defeat.  I get up in the morning, make me bed, and then look for another challenge! .   Pip pip old boy!

Edited February 5 by Harley

[JoeDavola]

9 hours ago, SpectrumFX said:

The state pensions pretty much guaranteed to keep going up at this point.

They can keep raising it all they want; but who the fuck is going to employ all these 65-71 year olds?

Take the decline in health of the average brit, the continual creep of automation/AI in office based jobs in coming decades...most of this demographic wont be able to do physical jobs.

There'll be no jobs for them full stop. So they can deny them a state pension but they'll have to pay them some kind of state benefit instead because nobody else will want to employ many of them.

Most people I've known are pretty much winding down by 55 and lost all enthusiasm for working at that point - no way will most people be any use at 65. Not a chance. You will get people hanging on to cushy jobs and doing fuck all biding their time, but not everyone has the luxury of being in a cushy number.

People in tech are proper fucked if working until 70 is the norm due to it being ageist and ever-changing; a load of them are going to age out of the industry and end up in min wage jobs or unemployed.

Edited February 5 by JoeDavola

[Snake Plissken]

3 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

They can keep raising it all they want; but who the fuck is going to employ all these 65-71 year olds?

Take the decline in health of the average brit, the continual creep of automation/AI in office based jobs in coming decades...most of this demographic wont be able to do physical jobs.

There'll be no jobs for them full stop. So they can deny them a state pension but they'll have to pay them some kind of state benefit instead because nobody else will want to employ many of them.

Most people I've known are pretty much winding down by 55 and lost all enthusiasm for working at that point - no way will most people be any use at 65. Not a chance. You will get people hanging on to cushy jobs and doing fuck all biding their time, but not everyone has the luxury of being in a cushy number.

People in tech are proper fucked if working until 70 is the norm due to it being ageist and ever-changing; a load of them are going to age out of the industry and end up in min wage jobs or unemployed.

they don't care how you survive between last decent job and collecting your pension, they just don't want you collecting your pension

[Harley]

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

Just bought some more GDXJ.  It's been a solid capital gainer for me over the past 4 years - in and out on a regular basis.  This time I am buying back at 33 exactly the same amount I sold at 41.  After trading costs, that's 1500 bucks profit over a 11month period on an investment amount of 7.5k, or a simple return of 14%+.  Dividends are small (couple of hundred bucks only in 23).

If/when GDXJ hits the 40-45 range, I'll sell the same amount again, unless I really think it's the start of the gold run.

I've now got 40k in GDXJ and I am pretty sure back in 2020 I started with around 20kish.  No, I don't always hit the highpoints or the lowpoints (for example back in 22 I sold out in the low 40's and it went on to touch near 50 before coming back down) but as a steady way of accumulating capital it's been a solid.  It's a very sentiment driven retail stock, especially the sentiment of US retail investors, and I like that.

I post this not to say how smart I am (boy you should see the sea of red on my small aussie miners) but people have asked about experiences of trading in and out and how to take the emotion out of it - for GDXJ, this is my style.

Credit to you.  That one's a widow maker for me!

PS:  Interesting question, can you Aussie residents buy US ETFs?  Please be gentle, I can already feel the tears welling up!

Edited February 5 by Harley

[JoeDavola]

1 minute ago, Snake Plissken said:

they don't care how you survive between last decent job and collecting your pension, they just don't want you collecting your pension

I think what they're really doing is working a subset of the few conscientious types in stressful jobs into an even earlier grave so that as you say they never see a penny of the pension.

But I don't think that's the majority. I think the majority are too fucking useless. They will literally be of no fucking use to anyone by 65. And the minimum wage jobs in places like supermarkets and the like; well there's only so many of them to go around.

So most folk in that age range if they lose a job will never find another one. Heck that's probably true for most over 60.

[DurhamBorn]

8 minutes ago, Snake Plissken said:

they don't care how you survive between last decent job and collecting your pension, they just don't want you collecting your pension

Yep,they know 50% will go on bennies,but they know 50% wont and will have to run their savings down.They could move it to 63,you just need to scrap working age welfare.Thats where the problem is,but easier to make the half working do another few years than get fat Shaz off her arse or machine gun Abdul in the channel.

[wherebee]

18 minutes ago, Harley said:

Credit to you.  That one's a widow maker for me!

PS:  Interesting question, can you Aussie residents buy US ETFs?  Please be gentle, I can already feel the tears welling up!

yup.  This is through a broker; I do know that some of the superfunds which allow people to chose individuals stocks to invest their pensions in don't allow stuff such as ETFs overseas tho.

[wherebee]

12 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yep,they know 50% will go on bennies,but they know 50% wont and will have to run their savings down.They could move it to 63,you just need to scrap working age welfare.Thats where the problem is,but easier to make the half working do another few years than get fat Shaz off her arse or machine gun Abdul in the channel.

offer accepted.

[Harley]

10 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

 

Mr Davola is absolutely right.  At my age I'm more likely to be putting the dents in than taking 'em out!

[JoeDavola]

23 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

 get fat Shaz off her arse or machine gun Abdul in the channel.

Change the 'or' to an 'and' - I think we have a solution!

 

...ah man I love ChatGPT....

Edited February 5 by JoeDavola

[Bobthebuilder]

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

Mr Davola is absolutely right.  At my age I'm more likely to be putting the dents in than taking 'em out!

couldn't resist...............

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, JoeDavola said:

I think what they're really doing is working a subset of the few conscientious types in stressful jobs into an even earlier grave so that as you say they never see a penny of the pension.

But I don't think that's the majority. I think the majority are too fucking useless. They will literally be of no fucking use to anyone by 65. And the minimum wage jobs in places like supermarkets and the like; well there's only so many of them to go around.

So most folk in that age range if they lose a job will never find another one. Heck that's probably true for most over 60.

And now you've gone too far!  I'm one of the In-Betweeners, waiting for pension day, not that I'm keen.   Bet I could still whip you on a good few things though Sonny!  And I'm plenty busy, not fecking useless.  Best to walk in someone's shoes before mouthing off!  Let this age, boomer, blah, blah, shite go, it's rubbish and fecking ya.  But yep, plenty choose to be useless but at all ages.

PS:  Thinking about it, everyone around me, indeed pretty much everyone I know who's over 55, even 60+, are working hard from farming to tree surgery to running £m multi enterprises.  Some part time, some full on.  A huge variety but all gainfully employed, just not for the corporates (unless senior, but most of those have moved on and set themselves up).

Edited February 6 by Harley

[Harley]

10 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Change the 'or' to an 'and' - I think we have a solution!

 

...ah man I love ChatGPT....

Ok, very good, I can't do that! 

[JoeDavola]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

Best to walk in someone's shoes before mouthing off!

You wanna see the shoes I have to walk in, boomer!

[Harley]

24 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

You wanna see the shoes I have to walk in, boomer!

All I know is if I met me dad right now I'd spend the first 10 minutes apologising for being such an as*hole!  

I'd give a lot to have that moment.  I owe it to him.  Funny how the apparent age difference does tend to shrink as you get older.  We were miles apart when I was in my twenties, only yards in my thirties, and just feet in my forties.

All a bit embarrassing tbh, even when ignoring the fact he aced me at every life milestone.

Edited February 5 by Harley

[leonardratso]

an

[JoeDavola]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

All I know is if I met me dad right now I'd spend the first 10 minutes apologising for being such a as*hole!

Yes I owe some people similar apologies from when I was younger.

[Harley]

3 minutes ago, Cawn said:

Hargreaves and Lansdown 

I've got 10k shares in Polymetal in my ISA. Currently valued at the Moscow price. Can't sell. They are charging me management fees. Anyway I'm out of cash in the account so next month there's no money for them to be paid. Can't put any in. Only Polymetal shares in there. How will they get there cash based on their below statement.

Odd situation and I am not paying in any other way due to the stock being stuffed because of Moscow and now Hargreaves and Lansdown have the cheek to use the Moscow price to extract fees.

Is this even legal. 

 

Same here with another stock at another broker.  I took everything else out of my account and closed a few others when they started to feck around.  Their response was they spoke to the other brokers and that's what they were all doing.  FFS, excuse me, what BS did you just say!  Slightly different background such that I think I have a case against them.  On my todo list.

[Bobthebuilder]

4 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Yes I owe some people similar apologies from when I was younger.

My old man died 6 years ago, I am now just starting to realise how similar we were. The same mannerisms, food, gardening, I even find new things that I enjoy now, only to suss out he was into exactly the same thing, but we never talked about it. Breaks my heart.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yep,they know 50% will go on bennies,but they know 50% wont and will have to run their savings down.They could move it to 63,you just need to scrap working age welfare.Thats where the problem is,but easier to make the half working do another few years than get fat Shaz off her arse or machine gun Abdul in the channel.

It's alsmost as if the Graf have been reading your work DB

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/05/depth-worklessness-crisis-number-of-job-dropouts-revised-up/

Depth of worklessness crisis revealed as ONS finds 400,000 more dropouts

New estimates show 9.25 million Britons are neither in work nor looking for work

Britain’s jobless crisis is worse than previously thought as new estimates show more than 400,000 extra people have dropped out of the labour market amid record long-term sickness.

There are now 9.25 million people aged between 16 and 64 who are not working nor looking for work, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), meaning they are officially classed as “economically inactive”.

Officials have revised the figures upwards because the adult population is almost 750,000 bigger than previously expected, fuelled by greater levels of immigration. 

There are 172,000 more people in work than previously realised, as well as 30,000 more unemployed. There are also an additional 414,000 who are inactive, amid a growing trend of long-term sickness.

A total of 2.8m people have dropped out of the jobs market because of their health, a record high. This is around 200,000 higher than previously estimated. In part this is thought to be due to a rise in the number of older workers, who are disproportionately likely to be unwell.

Britain’s jobless crisis is worse than previously thought

Edited February 5 by sancho panza

[Bobthebuilder]

1 minute ago, Cawn said:

My old man kicked me out at 18. Never seen him again. Or my mum. Used to wonder about him, why have me.

I struggled in life, felt rejected.

In my 50’s I realised who my old man was because I was the mirror of him. He was never diagnosed but he had issues.

I'm lucky I have been diagnosed which makes life easier for my family.

I find myself doing things and thinking that's my dad. He's gone but you know what if he weren't I say old man. I know how you suffered and I get you and forgive you because it must have been hard being you.

Not everyone wakes up wanting to be alive and just getting on with it.

 

I think I know now, how lucky I was.

[JMD]

9 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Interesting video, showing what most see everywhere the towns that used to be thriving now endless empty shops, that tower block in Harlow is ridiculous the amount of land the carpark was taking up

 

 

Pretty much at the point that everyone is giving up

You comment that 'everyone is giving up' - Well perhaps rather aptly the building is called Terminus House!

Anyway @DurhamBorn  is convinced it's the future, what with shared facilities, etc...

https://www.caridonproperty.co.uk/our-properties/terminus-house/

 

 

Edited February 6 by JMD

[JMD]

8 hours ago, janch said:

I agree this is a good explanation and I particularly liked the bit with Dominic Frisby.

However I'm still sceptical about eg nurses needing foodbanks.  Until I see none of the whole aisles of fizzy sugar water in supermarkets will I believe people are genuinely on their uppers.  There is a real crisis of people not knowing what to eat and drink to keep them healthy all driven by big food companies.  All processed foods are expensive and full of chemicals etc.  No wonder we have so much diabetes and other poor health and that's even before big pharma have got involved with their miracle vax.

Only yesterday were the MSM having a thing about children having all their teeth extracted as they were rotten.  Please stop giving them expensive sugar water. 

 

Yep, when I first learned that Canada had food banks long before their introduction here in the UK I knew there was something else going on, ie maybe merely misplaced middle-class meddling, or perhaps more capriciously it represented the ever expanding charity blob!!

Btw first Canadian one was back in 1981...

https://www.edmontonsfoodbank.com/about/history/#:~:text=On January 16%2C 1981%2C the,first food bank was born.

 

[wherebee]

20 minutes ago, JMD said:

Yep, when I first learned that Canada had food banks long before their introduction here in the UK I knew there was something else going on, ie maybe merely misplaced middle-class meddling, or perhaps more capriciously it represented the ever expanding charity blob!!

Btw first Canadian one was back in 1981...

https://www.edmontonsfoodbank.com/about/history/#:~:text=On January 16%2C 1981%2C the,first food bank was born.

 

I think food banks are, at heart, a well designed Marxist measure to undermine western society.  It's another great case of 'the more you fuck your life up, the more free shit I will give you citizen as long as you obey'.

Other cultures have food kitchens/soup kitchens.  It's what the west used to have in depressions and economic crisis - the community would cook and the poor would come and sit in good order, whilst sermons and lectures were read to them.

Food kitchens destroy societies, soup kitchens unify them.

[AWW]

48 minutes ago, JMD said:

You comment that 'everyone is giving up' - Well perhaps rather aptly the building is called Terminus House!

The local council are on it when it comes to urban regeneration. A 15 minute walk from Terminus House, you'll find: