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The Masked Tulip

Interbank Lending falls way lower than 2008/09

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2 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

Cheap money is still readily available from personal and corporate depositors.  It could be just that they don't need to borrow rather than any risk concern.

I'd go along with that. I don't believe the banks are any more solvent today than they were back in 2008/9, I just think they're more confident in their ability to pay each other back. For now.

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Capital ratios are way higher than they were back in 2008 so most banks will have lots more cash sitting around in their own accounts. I think that was one of the aims of some of the reforms in fact - reduce the likelihood of a problem in the wholesale lending markets blowing up and otherwise solvent bank.

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35 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

I believe M&S Bank are offering car loans via money-supermarket at 2.6%.

Now that tells you how cheap money is, what could possible go wrong.....

 

I'm guessing but that's the US model with the loan secured upon the asset.  Hence "Repo Man".

Why's that a particular problem?  Most cash depositors would be delighted to get 2.6%.

I absolutely agree with the thrust of your argument in that I dislike the proliferation of easy credit, payday loans, Sunny, Wonga etc. but this looks like a very minor offender in comparison.

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The London Crash has been underway for some time but it looks like it's gathering pace now.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/mar/12/london-property-prices-plunge-as-brexit-effect-deepens

Figures from Your Move, one of the UK’s biggest estate agency chains, reveal that the average home in Wandsworth – which includes much of Clapham, Balham and Putney – fell by more than £100,000 in value over the last 12 months.(-15%)

 

The London-based Guardian is rolling out the well-used "cos of Brexit innit" argument but most of their readership consider falls a good thing. Frankly one of the reasons I voted for Brexit was to lower house prices.

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Interesting comment on that article btw, someone like @TheCountOfNowhere might appreciate anyway:

Quote

 

I cover the most expensive post codes in the UK, Hamstead, St John's Wood and Mayfair. Not estate agency, before anyone asks.

In the last week, I have seen a property with an asking price of 3.4m sell for 2.2m, one asking for 2.3m sold for 1.8m and another with an asking price of 2.2m sell for 1.7m. I also had to deal with one where the owner wanted 1.8m but had to down value to 1.3m.

 

 

(these are about -35% drops)

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1 hour ago, spunko2010 said:

Interesting comment on that article btw, someone like @TheCountOfNowhere might appreciate anyway:

 

(these are about -35% drops)

Thanks Spunko2010, i think most in the know have seen the london bubble peaking around 2015 and slow but surely seeing the slow realization from people that we have a BIG problem.

 

This sort of anecdote is always good to hear.

 

But those are just -35% drops in asking price which probably constituent 300% rises in selling prices.

 

That's the madness of the london pwopatee (mega) bubble.

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7 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

 

 

That's the madness of the london pwopatee (mega) bubble.

Not just london. When you do the sums on a loan of 400k, then calculate what the new rate will be at 1.5% 2% and 4%, its pretty shocking. Even looking to borrow a modest amount say 250k, any rises in rates and you are fucked unless youre a top earner. Its not really any wonder that the only people transacting are those over 50 who own outright and are swapping houses among themselves. What does 250k get you south of watford? A 1 bed flat. A family home requires a 500k sum. Totally unsustainable. Lets hope brexit does indeed crash the entire bullshit house of cards ponzi.

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9 hours ago, spunko2010 said:

The London-based Guardian is rolling out the well-used "cos of Brexit innit" argument but most of their readership consider falls a good thing. Frankly one of the reasons I voted for Brexit was to lower house prices.

Brexit will be used as a scapegoat to blame all the northern thickos. The real reason is it has been the biggest ponzi get rich quick scheme ever devised by the banksters in the UK. Joe public has been fully rinsed in a process that has lasted 40 years since 1978.

1978 expansion of credit card takeup
1983 deregulation of the mortgage market
1988 right to buy
1993 wide spread privatisations - 'tell sid'
1998 interest rates start to fall
2003 dot com rinsing, endowmnets collapse
2008 super-low interest rates
2013 help-to-buy
2018?

Its like fucking Soviet 5 year plans.

Now what will 2018 bring as surely the  working population has been tapped dry....

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1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

PPI chasing solicitor types will be gearing up for 'have you been mis-sold a house or flat', after all their business model is nearly spent.

You know v enger has gone AWOL ,you did not post that on TOS by any chance

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1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

Brexit will be used as a scapegoat to blame all the northern thickos. The real reason is it has been the biggest ponzi get rich quick scheme ever devised by the banksters in the UK. Joe public has been fully rinsed in a process that has lasted 40 years since 1978.

1978 expansion of credit card takeup
1983 deregulation of the mortgage market
1988 right to buy
1993 wide spread privatisations - 'tell sid'
1998 interest rates start to fall
2003 dot com rinsing, endowmnets collapse
2008 super-low interest rates
2013 help-to-buy
2018?

Its like fucking Soviet 5 year plans.

Now what will 2018 bring as surely the  working population has been tapped dry....

Excellent post. I’ve argued that this all started with thatcher and that Blair merely continued her work. You have laid it all out there very succinctly. The majority getting completely rinsed. 

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10 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Brexit will be used as a scapegoat to blame all the northern thickos. The real reason is it has been the biggest ponzi get rich quick scheme ever devised by the banksters in the UK. Joe public has been fully rinsed in a process that has lasted 40 years since 1978.

1978 expansion of credit card takeup
1983 deregulation of the mortgage market
1988 right to buy
1993 wide spread privatisations - 'tell sid'
1998 interest rates start to fall
2003 dot com rinsing, endowmnets collapse
2008 super-low interest rates
2013 help-to-buy
2018?

Its like fucking Soviet 5 year plans.

Now what will 2018 bring as surely the  working population has been tapped dry....

The rich will have cashed out....then start again.

Is always the same.

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13 hours ago, Green Devil said:

Not just london. When you do the sums on a loan of 400k, then calculate what the new rate will be at 1.5% 2% and 4%, its pretty shocking. Even looking to borrow a modest amount say 250k, any rises in rates and you are fucked unless youre a top earner. Its not really any wonder that the only people transacting are those over 50 who own outright and are swapping houses among themselves. What does 250k get you south of watford? A 1 bed flat. A family home requires a 500k sum. Totally unsustainable. Lets hope brexit does indeed crash the entire bullshit house of cards ponzi.

I think most of us would think a three bed semi would be at the Lowe level of aspiration for a family home.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-71791037.html

So £500k is what you need.

Forget interest, the capital cost alone is £20k per year, every year, for most of your working life.

I can guarantee you that if I had actually saved up £500k from my own work, I would not be willing to hand it over in exchange for that.

Many people no longer seem to have any clue how hard money is to actually earn.

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3 minutes ago, Cunning Plan said:

I think most of us would think a three bed semi would be at the Lowe level of aspiration for a family home.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-71791037.html

So £500k is what you need.

Forget interest, the capital cost alone is £20k per year, every year, for most of your working life.

I can guarantee you that if I had actually saved up £500k from my own work, I would not be willing to hand it over in exchange for that.

Many people no longer seem to have any clue how hard money is to actually earn.

Probably because most people have the majority of their money provided by government ‘s magic money tree 

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1 minute ago, One percent said:

Probably because most people have the majority of their money provided by government ‘s magic money tree 

Actually round my way, most get it from property speculation or inheritance.

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27 minutes ago, Cunning Plan said:

Actually round my way, most get it from property speculation or inheritance.

Still unearned income. If you have not had to work for it, it will not seem that hard to come by 

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8 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

The rich will have cashed out....then start again.

Is always the same.

Not always... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scot_Young

PS: This is how Russians knock off people they don't like. Treason "Doormat" May must know this.

 

Quote

... and alleged that UK police shut down the investigation without conducting forensics tests or investigating Young's alleged business ties with enemies of Russian President Vladimir definitely-not-gay definitely-not-gay Putin

Contrast to Salisbury, what a load of old shite.

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15 hours ago, spunko2010 said:

Not always... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scot_Young

PS: This is how Russians knock off people they don't like. Treason "Doormat" May must know this.

 

Contrast to Salisbury, what a load of old shite.

I know about the Scot Young thing.  It runs much deeper is seems, yet the MSM seem quiet on this 

'Ring of death' – the Scot Young associates who have all died in the last few years

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11289504/Ring-of-death-the-Scot-Young-associates-who-have-all-died-in-the-last-few-years.html

 

Rule no 1.  Dont **** with the ruskis.

I think I'm going to quit drying to get house prices to collapse O.o

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Posted (edited)
22 hours ago, Cunning Plan said:

Many people no longer seem to have any clue how hard money is to actually earn.

Was discussing incomes with my sister the other day. Between us we know a wide range of people in a variety of jobs and reckon that the real average income in our part of northamptonshire from actual work is something like £20k. I think prices for a 3 bed semi somewhere not too stabby in the area is around £250k. The figures don't add up for a working couple and much less so for a single person. Aside from working in London (20hours/week on the train and not as good pay as people generally assume), inheritance, lucky boomers and barely paying the interest on the mortgage seem to be the main forces behind house purchases in the area. All that borrowed money and assets not worth any where near what was paid against the value of wages from actual productive work, what could possibly go wrong among the general population?

Edited by Caravan Monster

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45 minutes ago, Caravan Monster said:

Was discussing incomes with my sister the other day. Between us we know a wide range of people in a variety of jobs and reckon that the real average income in our part of northamptonshire from actual work is something like £20k. I think prices for a 3 bed semi somewhere not too stabby in the area is around £250k. The figures don't add up for a working couple and much less so for a single person. Aside from working in London (20hours/week on the train and not as good pay as people generally assume), inheritance, lucky boomers and barely paying the interest on the mortgage seem to be the main forces behind house purchases in the area. All that borrowed money and assets not worth any where near what was paid against the value of wages from actual productive work, what could possibly go wrong among the general population?

Add my mate XXXXX to that....he earned £16k as a XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

His old house sold for £160K around 2014/2015 when he got divorced ( after years of trying, to sell I mean ) which was 10x income at that point and prices were "low."..it's now "worth" £240K, if you believe the bankers, MPs and EAs. so 15x income.  His house that be bought to get into the pyramid originally was 2x income, £30k ( now £200K, x12.5 )

 

The loons moving out of London and paying 15x local income for a sh*t hole are going to be hit hard when a) london collapses and b) have to sell.

Anyone thinking this is sustainable is mental.

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