Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

ALL joking aside...DON'T let the date of this book put YOU off - because the trading psychology in this book is EVERGREEN...human nature NEVER changes! AS WE ARE ABOUT TO SEE with the housing market!

 

Back over a decade ago when i was into the spread betting I had ALL (hard copy) of any books on Livermore, bought them all up of flebay! Still have 'em to this day.

 

Jesse Livermore was a legendary stock trader, he was famed for making and losing several multimillion-dollar fortunes and short selling during the stock market crashes in 1907 and 1929. Sadly Livermore suffered from depression, and committed suicide in 1940.

Great YouTube video on Jesse Livermore:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVGr68RzkY0

[Majorpain]

Ill tell you something which isnt going deflationary, takeaway prices.

Indian at 22 quid for 2 people is taking the mick, i spend 25 on a weeks petrol!

[Wight Flight]

7 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Ill tell you something which isnt going deflationary, takeaway prices.

Indian at 22 quid for 2 people is taking the mick, i spend 25 on a weeks petrol!

We have a thread on this

 

[No Duff (troll)]

On 07/06/2018 at 17:59, Admiral Pepe said:

Gold bought in the UK has no VAT and no CGT

To clarify.  CGT is payable if over your annual allowance, except for certain coins.

[Castlevania]

The two biggest silver miners (Fresnillo and Hochschild) on the LSE got absolutely smashed today. Not sure why? Physical silver went nowhere. A bit confused. Thoughts?

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, No Duff said:

To clarify.  CGT is payable if over your annual allowance, except for certain coins.

Britannias and sovereigns. Everything else is subject to CGT.

[man o' the year]

On 05/06/2018 at 17:20, DurhamBorn said:

The debt deflation could happen slowly,or,as we think with severe financial dislocation and panic.The reason mainly is liquidity and the calls on it.The scale of the debt worldwide means that a fall in liquidity make it certain people start to default.We also see massive risks in second line derivatives.Nothing is ever certain,but the risks now are severe.Rates from 20% to 0.5% with asset prices following have taken this cycle to extreme lengths.The reaction you see from governments is exactly what we think is coming.A reflation,but we dont think they can get there until the debt is deflated through defaults.We will just have to see how it plays out.

I am happy to see you here DB and sorry that I have only just seen this thread. I have followed your thread on TOS closely. I must say though that being new to investing (started March 2017) I have not so far followed your advice. Your foreboding does however remain as a fear in my mind of course. In the meantime my investments are at 15% pa. I am not sufficiently informed to be able to do much else than I have but would hope to be able to move into safer investments if events take the course you predict. I must say that you are fortunate to have made the connection that you have and we are equally fortunate that you are prepared to take the time to share your views with us.

You are brave to take such a stand point and be prepared for criticism. I admire that and you clearly do have some success. I do hope that in some sense I am able to ride your coat tails to avoid any catastrophic downturn that may come.

Could I ask what you did on TOS which led to your moderation. I am still moderated there.

[Castlevania]

@Yellow_Reduced_Sticker Both Reminisces of a Stock Operator and Wall Street Stories by Ediwn Leferve (Jesse Livermore’s pen mame) are excellent primers as to what not to do.

[Talking Monkey]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The miners are very volatile as a problem at a mine etc can cause big falls.For myself i tend to focus on 5 to 7 companies and know their assets/balance sheets,price history inside out.Then add them over time in several buys.I think a bull is coming so say one is at $2 (and its been $20) id buy at $2,$1.85,$1.70,$1.55 and then hold.

I also have no fear of them being down.They can sit red for as long as needed.People who cant stomach looking at big losses though shouldnt really be in the space.They should also be part of a portfolio,not an all in gamble.I am around 16% PM miners at the moment in my portfolio and thats likely as high as it will go.I have also taken profits on several over the last year (and sitting on losses on a couple).Sibanye i have owned three times,selling twice for good profits and now back in again (likely a longer hold now).

Thank you DB

[DurhamBorn]

18 minutes ago, man o' the year said:

I am happy to see you here DB and sorry that I have only just seen this thread. I have followed your thread on TOS closely. I must say though that being new to investing (started March 2017) I have not so far followed your advice. Your foreboding does however remain as a fear in my mind of course. In the meantime my investments are at 15% pa. I am not sufficiently informed to be able to do much else than I have but would hope to be able to move into safer investments if events take the course you predict. I must say that you are fortunate to have made the connection that you have and we are equally fortunate that you are prepared to take the time to share your views with us.

You are brave to take such a stand point and be prepared for criticism. I admire that and you clearly do have some success. I do hope that in some sense I am able to ride your coat tails to avoid any catastrophic downturn that may come.

Could I ask what you did on TOS which led to your moderation. I am still moderated there.

Good to see you.I dont know why i was moderated,i didnt ask,but im not now.I just didnt like the fact people would think i was ignoring them.I hate being rude.

The thread over there,and now by the look of it over here has been very lucky in everyone who has contributed and enjoyed it has kept things very civil and if i say it adult.I would always hope everyone can add their thoughts without fear of being wrong,or suffering any personal attacks.Different views mean we can always re-consider things and thats always healthy.Everyone has a right to ignore people or not.I like to lay out my work exactly as i see it because if im blunt i trust my work.Things always change of course,and not all calls come off,but most do go in the right direction.Where we are now reminds me of when people were selling the likes of BAT tobacco at £5 and Whitbread the same as tech mania took hold.The macro picture then put us into those shares at those prices and we sold them at their highs (within 10%).We see the same thing now in inflation assets and even better if the debt deflation event we expect hits.

 

[Castlevania]

2 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Ill tell you something which isnt going deflationary, takeaway prices.

Indian at 22 quid for 2 people is taking the mick, i spend 25 on a weeks petrol!

What annoys me is the size of the rice. I rarely get takeaway. I bought a Chinese takeaway the other week. The egg fried rice only came in one size, which was far bigger than the proper food I ordered. I’d have been happy with a third of the size. £4. 

[DurhamBorn]

44 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

The two biggest silver miners (Fresnillo and Hochschild) on the LSE got absolutely smashed today. Not sure why? Physical silver went nowhere. A bit confused. Thoughts?

Likely political.Mexico might be about to elect a communist.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

The two biggest silver miners (Fresnillo and Hochschild) on the LSE got absolutely smashed today. Not sure why? Physical silver went nowhere. A bit confused. Thoughts?

All the miners sold off today.I have to say-I'm not much of an expert on the UK Silvies-but they do seem disproportionately more overbought than a lot of their US cousins.

At the mo,I'm struggling to see great value in the silver miners unlike the big blue chip goldies.Some of which look just plain cheap.

Worth noting-as per frequent discussion on here-the PM miners dived hard into the bottom in 09.I think the general view on here is to keep some powder dry if that happens.

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Oh i agree 100% on that.Some of the bigger miners are fantastic value.Some of the bigger ones are valued as if they had never turned a profit.I have no doubt if gold runs there are 10 baggers even among the bigger companies.

Yes it was a shame mining feeds stopped updating the prices,it was great for looking across the complex during trading hours.

Worth considering Barrick was kicking out 70 cents in divi's back in 2011/12

I'm struggling to purchase some of the silver miners at the mo.I look at the fundamentals/charts of Barrick/Goldcorp/Anglogold Ashanti/Gold fields/Kinross/Yamana and I feel reasonably comfortable with where we are.

The silver miners as prospective purchaes,much less so.I may jsut weigh in with a few small purchases first.

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes solar is one of the reasons im bullish on silver.Its going to be massive just as investment demand is increasing as well.I think there is going to be a .com style bubble in the miners.Barrick is a great buy for anyone who wants a real blue chip gold miner.

Solar is going to also need a lot of battery storage and also companies who can control/measure who produces what ,store it and then sell it with a block chain type ledger in real time.Centrica own the best company in the world at this (not many people know that).Another possible bubble area in the next cycle is energy companies with this sort of technology.Big oil might start to buy up the space though before the big profits can come through.

Strangely,I read Moneyweek tonight and First Solar was getting pushed in there.The survivors might do well but there's been some serious cash burned on solar

I agree on big oil buying up a lot of it.Companies like Exxon are very switched onto this.

Even Shell with it's purchase of First utility fits right in with your thesis

[Bricks & Mortar]

Those packets of microwave rice aren't bad.  Can be had for 50p on special offer sometimes.  Regular price Aldi not much more.

And, while I'm relaying shopping tales... I ran out of salt this week.  I like to keep table salt, and some big crystal sea salt.  The table salt ran out a while ago, so I used up the sea salt until it was gone, since the packaging looked a bit tired.  I did the same 2 years ago before I bought the last lot.
So, off to my local co-op, where I last time, I remember grabbing the table salt, and choosing between Malden or Hebridean sea salt.  Only this time, they don't have sea salt any more.  Table salt, cooking salt, or rock salt crystals.  That's yer lot.  They must be struggling to sell those sort of things.

[sancho panza]

7 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Those packets of microwave rice aren't bad.  Can be had for 50p on special offer sometimes.  Regular price Aldi not much more.

And, while I'm relaying shopping tales... I ran out of salt this week.  I like to keep table salt, and some big crystal sea salt.  The table salt ran out a while ago, so I used up the sea salt until it was gone, since the packaging looked a bit tired.  I did the same 2 years ago before I bought the last lot.
So, off to my local co-op, where I last time, I remember grabbing the table salt, and choosing between Malden or Hebridean sea salt.  Only this time, they don't have sea salt any more.  Table salt, cooking salt, or rock salt crystals.  That's yer lot.  They must be struggling to sell those sort of things.

Nice to see you here Bricks.

 

On a separate note,had a quick look at Director selling and guess what..

Berkeley directors offloaded £100mn + of stock.Barratts have shifted £8mn........

https://uk.webfg.com/index/FTSE_100/director-deal

[DurhamBorn]

@sancho panza i like Yamana as a silver play.They should be up to 13 million oz in a couple of years.They are a gold miner of course,but with very strong silver growth.Pushing up reserves at their new Cerro Moro mine would help.They do have high debt,but they should of seen the back of big capital spending.

[Talking Monkey]

2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Nice to see you here Bricks.

 

On a separate note,had a quick look at Director selling and guess what..

Berkeley directors offloaded £100mn + of stock.Barratts have shifted £8mn........

https://uk.webfg.com/index/FTSE_100/director-deal

100mn jeez, someone was saying they could be worth shorting though risky

[Castlevania]

25 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Likely political.Mexico might be about to elect a communist.

Ah! The fun and games of political risk. It’s ridiculous in the PM space. Take a look at Acacia (formerly Barrick Africa) share price over the past couple of years.

[Castlevania]

6 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Nice to see you here Bricks.

 

On a separate note,had a quick look at Director selling and guess what..

Berkeley directors offloaded £100mn + of stock.Barratts have shifted £8mn........

https://uk.webfg.com/index/FTSE_100/director-deal

Tony Pidgley’s been dumping. More than offset by share buybacks though. 

I made a lot of money shorting Berkely in 2016. Lost it all last year. It’s an intriguing one. They forward sell years in advance. Their financial staments tell you nothing. I want to short, but the lack of information is putting me off.

[sancho panza]

7 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

100mn jeez, someone was saying they could be worth shorting though risky

Yeah,I placed a couple of small shoprts on two UK Builders the other week.It's going to be a long campaign,but my thinking is that the builders dropped before Northern Rock in 07 and we're in another hosue price bubble.

Berkeley aren't near the turn yet imho

Only one of those two acutally has a chart that has drawn me in,the other is more like it's headed that way and I couldn't resist trying to time the turn despite all my advice never to do it.

I won't be reading @Yellow_Reduced_Sticker copy of Livermore as it'll jsut depress me

Dyor natch

[Bricks & Mortar]

Taylor Wimpey £6m, and Persimmon £9.5m too.

I worked for a national housebuilder back in 2008.  They had our office pull profits from everywhere and book them in 2007.  Then it was bonuses (and trebles), all round.  2008 was spent closing down sites, off-hiring equipment - (it turned out they owned nothing, even the office computers were rented).  By the end of the year, we were all down the labour exchange.  Point is, they saw the thing coming that 'nobody saw coming'.

 

[sancho panza]

4 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Tony Pidgley’s been dumping. More than offset by share buybacks though. 

I made a lot of money shorting Berkely in 2016. Lost it all last year. It’s an intriguing one. They forward sell years in advance. Their financial staments tell you nothing. I want to short, but the lack of information is putting me off.

Their chart is firmly in an upternd imho.

 

Just now, Bricks & Mortar said:

Taylor Wimpey £6m, and Persimmon £9.5m too.

I worked for a national housebuilder back in 2008.  They had our office pull profits from everywhere and book them in 2007.  Then it was bonuses (and trebles), all round.  2008 was spent closing down sites, off-hiring equipment - (it turned out they owned nothing, even the office computers were rented).  By the end of the year, we were all down the labour exchange.  Point is, they saw the thing coming that 'nobody saw coming'.

 

Do you know much about Ashstead bricks?

They hire out construction kit.Is that mainly to housebuilders or CRE-any idea,to save me researching it?

[Castlevania]

7 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Their chart is firmly in an upternd imho

Yep. Agreed. 

Fundamental wise. I don’t think you can get away with making on average £300k+ on every flat you sell.

[macca]

According to a report on Keiser Report:

How much electricity costs to produce.

Onshore wind $40 per MWH
Solar $50 per MWH
Offshore wind $60 per MWH
Gas $60 per MWH
Coal $102 per MWH
Nuclear $148 per MWH

So why have the CONservatives given contracts for a new Nuclear plant and rights to drill to Fracking companies? When it’s cheaper and cleaner to make electricity using natural resources. 

Are they corrupt, stupid or both?

 

[ashestoashes]

2 minutes ago, macca said:

According to a report on Keiser Report:

How much electricity costs to produce.

Onshore wind $40 per MWH
Solar $50 per MWH
Offshore wind $60 per MWH
Gas $60 per MWH
Coal $102 per MWH
Nuclear $148 per MWH

So why have the CONservatives given contracts for a new Nuclear plant and rights to drill to Fracking companies? When it’s cheaper and cleaner to make electricity using natural resources. 

Are they corrupt, stupid or both?

 

guess it's something called backup supply for when the wind is blowing the other way at night.