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DurhamBorn

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

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21 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

+18.5% since i bought it Bob.I like it for the next cycle ,but it might get hit down again before this one ends.As always i have ladders in place on it,got two out of 5 bought.Good enough.I bought some more Stagecoach this morning as they hit a ladder at £1.22.Very happy to see them not over bid and lose the trains.Their bus business should be able to get free cash flow to around £200+ million in the next cycle so i see £4+ a share maybe.Their bus business is whats interests me.Management did right not to sign up to those pension liabilities.

 

 

@DurhamBorn Been watching Stagecoach to come down, i used to own these years ago...done OK in the pass...

anyway I got me limit order on to buy SGC @ 120.00 ...JUST so i can get THEM 2p cheaper than YOU! xDas ya know i'm the CHEAPEST tight wad here!xD

been watching SLA... I see Director David Fleming, has sold (Sell award related) 337,720.00 shares @ £2.80 (£946,966.88)

now thats quite a bit of coin, the shares the next day went down intra-day low  2.08! NOW back up to 2.60

do ya read anything into this? CHEERS!:Beer:

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13 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Goodness me! the So-Called BBC are letting a cat out of a bag:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-47853444

Still don't blame it on government and central bank policy, though. Just joining the socialist call to blame it on the rich.

'You can avoid reality but you can't ignore the consequences of avoiding reality', Ayn Rand

(… a peculiar personality perhaps, but interesting because both she - and her ideas - are modern-day heresy to today's so called progressives)  

 

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37 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

@DurhamBorn Been watching Stagecoach to come down, i used to own these years ago...done OK in the pass...

anyway I got me limit order on to buy SGC @ 120.00 ...JUST so i can get THEM 2p cheaper than YOU! xDas ya know i'm the CHEAPEST tight wad here!xD

been watching SLA... I see Director David Fleming, has sold (Sell award related) 337,720.00 shares @ £2.80 (£946,966.88)

now thats quite a bit of coin, the shares the next day went down intra-day low  2.08! NOW back up to 2.60

do ya read anything into this? CHEERS!:Beer:

Never can tell,he might know they in trouble,or he might have a pendant for women of the night.When i was at Glaxo i always sold my share options as they came off and re-invested,didnt like the idea of being invested in the company i worked for.Bank workers who had their life savings in share saves and kept them found that out the hard way.Im more interested in SLA in the next cycle,i didnt expect them to rally as they did (ex-divi today of 14p) and they could re-test lows at some point.Stagecoach need to forget the railways and concentrate on the bus business.I reckon they could pull £110 million in free cash flow going forward then increase it 7%/10% a year.They should use the divi as a base and give out specials each year based on free cash.The railways are too much of a political football and the unions get all the money.

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

A lot of the problem is welfare spending forcing up tax.Council tax a prime example.Massive amounts go on newcomers as well and everyone knows it.The anger in the country against the political parties could explode at any time.CBs have caused massive problems as well.Keeping zombie companies going means profits are now falling across the board and crushing investments.Its utter lunacy to work longer than needed in the UK.More and more people know that now and they are angry,very angry.This political cycles is nothing new,and its one of the direct reasons why the next cycle will be a reflation.Governments will do it,or they will be removed and replaced with ones that will.

Revolutionary ideas and revolutionaries have traditionally come from the middle class, from Marx/Lenin to Cambodia's Pol Pot. However in recent times the left have not caught the masses imagination. Perhaps the left can only operate through force? Since the 1990's the faux middle class lefty - resorting even to clumsily dropping their H's - has tried to ingratiate themselves with the general voter. However having failed to garner support for their ideas they resorted to closing down debate and to creating false divisions between groups. Today it seems to be so called 'populists' of the right who are chiming with the public. To be clear I am not talking party politics here - for me the left/right divide is a superficial construct - instead something more fundamental is occurring, a perfect political/economic storm after too many lies told and promises broken, but where tragically no real leadership from politics or business is stepping forward with ideas to help solve things... hmmm… 'ideas' and 'solutions'... have I just inadvertently taken us back to Pol Pot?            

 

Edited by JMD

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On 10/04/2019 at 12:25, DurhamBorn said:

I bought some more Stagecoach this morning as they hit a ladder at £1.22.Very happy to see them not over bid and lose the trains.Their bus business should be able to get free cash flow to around £200+ million in the next cycle so i see £4+ a share maybe.Their bus business is whats interests me.Management did right not to sign up to those pension liabilities.

 

 

Ah.............This is where I need a change of mindset.  I saw Stagecoach had gone down quite sharply and didn't know why but my thought was "oh dear my Stagecoach shares have gone down and I'm losing  money"  whereas I should have been thinking "oh good Stagecoach are down significantly, time to buy some more".:D

I suppose it all stems on whether the company is sound or not and the reason for the drop (cf Debenhams).  This tells me I need to study the individual companies more than I am doing currently.  Also to remember it's the long term that I should be looking at.

They weren't down that far for very long so were you looking at the share price all day to see when to buy or do you have some other method?  Sorry to ask such basic things but this is all new to me and hopefully my "silly" questions mayalso help other newbies.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, janch said:

Ah.............This is where I need a change of mindset.  I saw Stagecoach had gone down quite sharply and didn't know why but my thought was "oh dear my Stagecoach shares have gone down and I'm losing  money"  whereas I should have been thinking "oh good Stagecoach are down significantly, time to buy some more".:D

I suppose it all stems on whether the company is sound or not and the reason for the drop (cf Debenhams).  This tells me I need to study the individual companies more than I am doing currently.  Also to remember it's the long term that I should be looking at.

They weren't down that far for very long so were you looking at the share price all day to see when to buy or do you have some other method?  Sorry to ask such basic things but this is all new to me and hopefully my "silly" questions mayalso help other newbies.

It definitely wise to DYOR, but its also important to find out what investing style you are successful at, its ultimately about making a return on your money and if you don't do that its a waste of time! 

I'm probably in the long term fundamentals camp, its not been a particularly good strategy in current emotional QE driven markets but I haven't been wiped out yet, and it doesn't mean I wont be successful in the future.  Whilst i could probably currently make more money investing in a Dow/Sandp500 tracker could I get out in time before it crashes or get out at all if it does?  Get your timing wrong and its a long way down from these highs....

Edited by Majorpain

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10 hours ago, janch said:

Ah.............This is where I need a change of mindset.  I saw Stagecoach had gone down quite sharply and didn't know why but my thought was "oh dear my Stagecoach shares have gone down and I'm losing  money"  whereas I should have been thinking "oh good Stagecoach are down significantly, time to buy some more".:D

I suppose it all stems on whether the company is sound or not and the reason for the drop (cf Debenhams).  This tells me I need to study the individual companies more than I am doing currently.  Also to remember it's the long term that I should be looking at.

They weren't down that far for very long so were you looking at the share price all day to see when to buy or do you have some other method?  Sorry to ask such basic things but this is all new to me and hopefully my "silly" questions mayalso help other newbies.

I set up my ladder buys from the moment i buy my first ones.So it could be £2.00,£1.80,£1.60,£1.40,£1.20.Then its mechanical,i buy when the ladders hit,the only thing that would stop my buying would be a share crash on internal fraud or something,everything else i ignore and buy on the prices.I always use a road map and consider where i think a company will be in say 8 years,or towards the back end of the next cycle.How it gets there doesnt concern me.I do sometimes sell a bottom ladder if it goes up 20%,but not always.I check share prices every hour when at home and every two if at work.Once im fully invested again il probably check once a day for a few seconds,simply for reference.

The stocks iv been adding have been volatile as id expect when most are down between 40% and 80% from highs.

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7 minutes ago, spunko said:

I don't usually do schadenfreude, but this one's a goldie.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-6858477/Ed-Sheeran-spends-42-million-investing-property-market.html

Talk about timing the market. Twat. 

 

He wrote a song called What do I know? Excerpt from the lyrics below:

"I'm just a boy with a one-man show No university, no degree, but lord knows Everybody's talking 'bout exponential growth And the stock market crashing in their portfolios While I'll be sitting here with a song that I wrote"

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1 hour ago, Option5 said:

 

He wrote a song called What do I know? Excerpt from the lyrics below:

"I'm just a boy with a one-man show No university, no degree, but lord knows Everybody's talking 'bout exponential growth And the stock market crashing in their portfolios While I'll be sitting here with a song that I wrote and a portfolio of property I don't really need but I gotta put my cash somewhere and treat it like confetti, cos I'm worth it others aren't they should be paying to me to live as well as come to gigs cos I don't do this for free"

 

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Posted (edited)

Unfortunately my theory on Grainger (LON: GRI) didn't pan out. Now up 25% since xmas.

image.thumb.png.194793cf27630b6e489535fc9e277b8b.png

 

On 23/03/2019 at 16:39, subutai80 said:

I like to follow Grainger Trust (LON: GRI). Even showed my wife the chart around Christmas time suggesting house prices might follow. Been climbing ever since but now the gap has closed I'm hoping it will start going south again. 

LCG_Trader.png

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by subutai80

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15 minutes ago, subutai80 said:

Unfortunately my theory on Grainger (LON: GRI) didn't pan out. Now up 25% since xmas.

image.thumb.png.194793cf27630b6e489535fc9e277b8b.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bet your wife thinks you're a twat now? Left you for Ed Sheeran :Jumping:

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4 minutes ago, harp said:

Bet your wife thinks you're a twat now? Left you for Ed Sheeran :Jumping:

Unless you’re using leverage Grainger (as much as I despise them for the flat I once viewed that they owned) is surely an easier choice?

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, janch said:

Where's Sancho gone?  I miss his/her posts on this thread.

Hes with me undergoing INTENSE comprehensive day-to-day training on picking up Yellow Reduced Sticker BARGAINS! xD

BTW, BOUGHT  Stagecoach @1.19  ...DON'T buy folks ...cos anything i buy INSTANLY goes down even MORE!:o:Old:

...SO hang in and get 'em at a BETTER cheaper price!:Jumping:

Edited by Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
...

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Thread gone very QUITE at the mo...
 
Anyway just saw this video and thought I'd post it as the beginning is HILARIOUS...has a dude hiding GOLD & Silver bars under the floorboards!:ph34r:
 
Made me think of some of the guys on this thread, MAYBE its @DurhamBorn... hiding GOLD & Silver bars under his floorboards!...ONLY kidding mate!xD
 

"Economic Collapse News - Housing Prices Drop Like It's 2008 Continued!"

 

 

 

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ISA and SIPP getting battered at the moment with more red lights that the reeperbahn.

 

I dont really know what to make of this market or how to properly read in to it, certainly not for the faint hearted.

 

My ISA allocation is staying in cash until further clarity and direction can be seen 

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