Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, sancho panza said:

I'd take the last two.

Ref oil,it's going to be interesing to see how low the current sell off can take stocks.But I am very tempted to start my ladders on Statoil/Repsol/ENI/Gazprom very soon

Reality is that faith in fiat currency is about to be tested big time in the medium term and hence why I'm all about finding sterling neutral ways of maintaining spending power.Oil/gold/rare earths/potash/gas.Not interested in any fiancials but HSBC/Standard possibly at the bottom.

I agree and ladders make the difference.I really like what i see in Repsol/Equinor but need a couple more.I have no problems buying early if that happens.My first Harmony buy was at $2.23 and i was down £6k on that for nearly two years.Road map was correct though,timing was simply sentiment.

Tariffs are smashing potash companies down even harder and onto a ladder in Mosaic so buying them this week.

Iv got a few other targets in the food space like Archer Daniels Midland,but too expensive at the moment.

Id be starting ladders in the ETF SEA as i have before but i cant buy it now due to those crazy EU KIDD rules,really annoying,guess its buy the stocks and start going through them,

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/sea?ltr=1

6 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

The canary in the coal mine to me has an uneducated oaf is the builders forget charts if your new to the stock market watch the builders they are often

tje first into a crash and the first out that’s my simple way of looking at a very complicated problem

in an uncomplicated way 

Lumber prices in the US were one of the biggest forward indicators in my gold call.They are superb at signalling when the FED is ahead or behind the curve.

[sancho panza]

21 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

The canary in the coal mine to me has an uneducated oaf is the builders forget charts if your new to the stock market watch the builders they are often

tje first into a crash and the first out that’s my simple way of looking at a very complicated problem

in an uncomplicated way 

I am short the builders stokie so proabably the worng person to confirm that in an even handed way.Agreed the builders peaked on the whole last year with a decent rally this year but they're falling over.A winter of low transactions and it'll be game on for most working people trying to oput a roof over their head.

[sancho panza]

20 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I agree and ladders make the difference.I really like what i see in Repsol/Equinor but need a couple more.I have no problems buying early if that happens.My first Harmony buy was at $2.23 and i was down £6k on that for nearly two years.Road map was correct though,timing was simply sentiment.

Tariffs are smashing potash companies down even harder and onto a ladder in Mosaic so buying them this week.

Iv got a few other targets in the food space like Archer Daniels Midland,but too expensive at the moment.

Id be starting ladders in the ETF SEA as i have before but i cant buy it now due to those crazy EU KIDD rules,really annoying,guess its buy the stocks and start going through them,

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/sea?ltr=1

Lumber prices in the US were one of the biggest forward indicators in my gold call.They are superb at signalling when the FED is ahead or behind the curve.

Ref SEA

I have run through them for us.Fwiw the Sancho Coma Scale scores for those 17 n over

https://etfdb.com/etf/SEA/

Mearks 19

Euronav 18

SFL 18

TGP 17

SSW 19

GOGL 18

DHT 17

KNOP 18

CMRE 18

really need to sleep.Baby panza likely up in 6 hours.........................

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Ref SEA

I have run through them for us.Fwiw the Sancho Coma Scale scores for those 17 n over

https://etfdb.com/etf/SEA/

Mearks 19

Euronav 18

SFL 18

TGP 17

SSW 19

GOGL 18

DHT 17

KNOP 18

CMRE 18

really need to sleep.Baby panza likely up in 6 hours.........................

Thats great, a nice sector for spray and pray i think and split the amount between say 7.Another sector that i havent started buying but will start very soon.

 

[Bobthebuilder]

2 hours ago, stokiescum said:

Yes but wages around here are shit and your car could well be worth more than my house lol

Mine £114 a month London.

[MrXxxx]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

used to have a few friends in the city and I remember them laughing at me selling tech stocks in the late 90's and then selling banks post Northern Crock in 07.You'd be genuinely amazed how bad they are investors in their own right.Which is one of the reasons my Grandad never trusted banks/brokers and he imbued that in me back in the early 90's

I think the issue is that people believe ( & trust) an expert knows what he/she is doing as `They are an expert`, much in the same way as `Doctor knows best`...what they don't realise is that many of these experts are taught dogma that they don't question.

[Talking Monkey]

12 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes gilts and treasuries as expected next best after the PM miners.Its the perfect time to cash in a DB pension if the trustees prices off the long bond as a lot do.We could see negative rates for a very short period,but we are right towards the end of the road map on rates now considering 7%+ maybe even mid double digit rates might arrive in the next cycle.

Iv actually been thinking about this today in regards to insurers who do annuities.Im trying to work out if increasing rates will mean massive released cash for them,or a disaster.L+G have done a lot of bulk annuity deals.Im presuming rising rates would mean big profits,but not sure.

Iv also been looking at my "the market hurts as many people as possible" mantra.Given wealth is going to be taken back im trying to road map how that is likely to happen.In the US you would have to think a collapse in the FANG stocks.In the UK house prices.The other is final salary government and council pensions.(and some private).What would claw that back?.Inflation above pay increases and rising rates would seem the likely outcome.If inflation runs before wages will the public stomach 10% council tax increases?

Rates at 7% will also finish off equity release outside of the top 20% price bracket.House is my pension will evaporate.

 

 The FAANG stocks will be brutal as I guess a lot of people will buy the dips having looked at the all time highs, only to see them drop lower then buy more to get the average down only to see them drift lower still. How many average folk would understand the concept of diversification in terms of stocks, sectors, geography. There will be a lot that pile in a huge chunk into just a few stocks

[Cosmic]

11 hours ago, stokiescum said:

I could Handel a 10% increase in my council tax that's £6.70 but I would not Handel a labour government that's likely to remove the 25% discount for single ocupanency 

Single occupancy with a lodger? Naughty

8 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Mine £114 a month London.

Mine similar on a Band B place in WY. Can't remember exactly as I paid it in a lump.

My small 2 bed semi place will be in the same Band as a large 4-5 bed terrace nearer the centre with a VERY large family living in it. Poll tax always read like a bloody good idea to me.

[King Penda]

9 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Single occupancy with a lodger? Naughty

Mine similar on a Band B place in WY. Can't remember exactly as I paid it in a lump.

My small 2 bed semi place will be in the same Band as a large 4-5 bed terrace nearer the centre with a VERY large family living in it. Poll tax always read like a bloody good idea to me.

You have to take your victory’s where you can I’ve offered to put him on the council tax but he doesn’t want his board increasing to 240 a month which would still be fucking cheap

[King Penda]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

I think the issue is that people believe ( & trust) an expert knows what he/she is doing as `They are an expert`, much in the same way as `Doctor knows best`...what they don't realise is that many of these experts are taught dogma that they don't question.

How many economists saw 2008 not many out of tens of thousands even I saw it

[Agent ZigZag]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thats great, a nice sector for spray and pray i think and split the amount between say 7.Another sector that i havent started buying but will start very soon.

 

Shipping is a sector to tread carefully. The leverage is huge with many of the carriers running on a tiny margin. A global correction or rate rises will send many under. In addition the major shipping alliances are consolidating routes, mergers and  carriers from a logistics point of view that will also have a significant effect on the industry. For me this sector is patience and wait and see when all the dust has settled.

[King Penda]

5 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Shipping is a sector to tread carefully. The leverage is huge with many of the carriers running on a tiny margin. A global correction or rate rises will send many under. In addition the major shipping alliances are consolidating routes, mergers and  carriers from a logistics point of view that will also have a significant effect on the industry. For me this sector is patience and wait and see when all the dust has settled.

Is it the dry Baltic that’s a good indication

[spygirl]

51 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Shipping is a sector to tread carefully. The leverage is huge with many of the carriers running on a tiny margin. A global correction or rate rises will send many under. In addition the major shipping alliances are consolidating routes, mergers and  carriers from a logistics point of view that will also have a significant effect on the industry. For me this sector is patience and wait and see when all the dust has settled.

Global shipping is a small number of people and nation states dick waving.

[Don Coglione]

21 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Global shipping is a small number of people and nation states dick waving.

Care to elaborate?

[spygirl]

1 minute ago, Ponty Mython said:

Care to elaborate?

Tiny number of people, leveraging up and entering complex contracts noone understands.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Shipping is a sector to tread carefully. The leverage is huge with many of the carriers running on a tiny margin. A global correction or rate rises will send many under. In addition the major shipping alliances are consolidating routes, mergers and  carriers from a logistics point of view that will also have a significant effect on the industry. For me this sector is patience and wait and see when all the dust has settled.

Very true,but also big upside.An example is the South African miners,everyone was saying they would go under due to high costs and gold being too low for them to survive.Of course what really happened is they exploded higher.

Sibanye for instance had lots of flack thrown at it because of debt etc,when in reality what really happened was the chief exec bought up most of the industry when prices had collapsed.

There will be some go under of course in the industry so its tricky to know when the worst is past.

Its an area i really wish i could still buy the SEA ETF.Id be looking at perhaps 4% of my portfolio spread across 7 holdings,

 

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

I think the issue is that people believe ( & trust) an expert knows what he/she is doing as `They are an expert`, much in the same way as `Doctor knows best`...what they don't realise is that many of these experts are taught dogma that they don't question.

I was looking at a pension transfer and phoned a local "IFA" and acted dumb.The advice was shocking,and in no way independent.He was going to manage the money within Standard Life,so big fees ongoing split with him.Once i came out of acting dumb and saying i wanted a transfer to my SIPP he start mumbling about in that case hed want a much bigger fee and it wasnt a big pot really,really arrogant.

I know lots of people who have done transfers with him though,but i keep my mouth shut.Trying to explain to them about losing 1.5% fees a year compounded in shit funds etc is a waste of time.No doubt he will flog them an annuity as well,or some expensive draw down plan.

[King Penda]

29 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I was looking at a pension transfer and phoned a local "IFA" and acted dumb.The advice was shocking,and in no way independent.He was going to manage the money within Standard Life,so big fees ongoing split with him.Once i came out of acting dumb and saying i wanted a transfer to my SIPP he start mumbling about in that case hed want a much bigger fee and it wasnt a big pot really,really arrogant.

I know lots of people who have done transfers with him though,but i keep my mouth shut.Trying to explain to them about losing 1.5% fees a year compounded in shit funds etc is a waste of time.No doubt he will flog them an annuity as well,or some expensive draw down plan.

I can get at a small pension next year maybe 22k after tax would you leave it there or get it out whilst I still can I suspect they will make it impossible in the future

[SpectrumFX]

17 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

I can get at a small pension next year maybe 22k after tax would you leave it there or get it out whilst I still can I suspect they will make it impossible in the future

Are you thinking of just taking a cash lump sum, or taking an income?

Personally I'm going to take my pensions as soon as I can, mostly to get them into drawdown as there's less scope for them to fuck with the terms once they're paying out.

But once your pensions are in payment there are consequences to your potential for future contributions to money purchase schemes. The Money Purchase Annual Allowance kicks in, and restricts the future contributions that you can make.

HL have some blurb on it 

https://www.hl.co.uk/retirement/drawdown/faqs

Pension contributions are normally restricted to a £40,000 annual allowance. This applies to any benefits you’re building up in defined benefit (e.g. final salary) or money purchase (e.g. personal, self-invested) pensions.

Once you take your first taxable income payment from drawdown, the amount you can pay into money purchase (e.g. personal, self-invested) pensions will be limited to £4,000 each tax year. This is called the Money Purchase Annual Allowance. Taking tax-free cash alone won’t have an effect. If you’re already in capped drawdown you won’t be affected either, unless you flexibly access pension benefits later on or elsewhere.

 

[janch]

17 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

Iv actually been thinking about this today in regards to insurers who do annuities.Im trying to work out if increasing rates will mean massive released cash for them,or a disaster.L+G have done a lot of bulk annuity deals.Im presuming rising rates would mean big profits,but not sure.

Iv also been looking at my "the market hurts as many people as possible" mantra.Given wealth is going to be taken back im trying to road map how that is likely to happen.In the US you would have to think a collapse in the FANG stocks.In the UK house prices.The other is final salary government and council pensions.(and some private).What would claw that back?.Inflation above pay increases and rising rates would seem the likely outcome.If inflation runs before wages will the public stomach 10% council tax increases?

Rates at 7% will also finish off equity release outside of the top 20% price bracket.House is my pension will evaporate.

 

This is how it was in the 70s with price inflation in everything hitting hard and mortgage rates going sky-high.  My daughter has recently applied for a mortgage and I did ask her if she'd looked at the figures for interest rates going above say 7% and she said the broker had run them at 10% which is just as well!  It's not a good time to be buying a house in the south but sometimes needs must.

If insurance companies providing annuities have much of their funds invested in gilts (which they have to do by law??)then surely they will lose money as the prices of gilts fall and yields rise.  Also the pensions they provide will be worth a lot less to people in real terms than they were expecting because of the inflation which will occur before the pension pays out.

It should be good for savers though.  If rates go up again we can move all our money to the safety of a building society but then where will we get our kicks?

[King Penda]

22 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

Are you thinking of just taking a cash lump sum, or taking an income?

Personally I'm going to take my pensions as soon as I can, mostly to get them into drawdown as there's less scope for them to fuck with the terms once they're paying out.

But once your pensions are in payment there are consequences to your potential for future contributions to money purchase schemes. The Money Purchase Annual Allowance kicks in, and restricts the future contributions that you can make.

HL have some blurb on it 

https://www.hl.co.uk/retirement/drawdown/faqs

Pension contributions are normally restricted to a £40,000 annual allowance. This applies to any benefits you’re building up in defined benefit (e.g. final salary) or money purchase (e.g. personal, self-invested) pensions.

Once you take your first taxable income payment from drawdown, the amount you can pay into money purchase (e.g. personal, self-invested) pensions will be limited to £4,000 each tax year. This is called the Money Purchase Annual Allowance. Taking tax-free cash alone won’t have an effect. If you’re already in capped drawdown you won’t be affected either, unless you flexibly access pension benefits later on or elsewhere.

 

Just removing the cash to be honest it's only 22k after tax however that's why I might get a bigger house i.e. Spend it imidently then they can't stop me accessing benefits I don't need a bigger house but I suspect I will need a place to charge an electric car up in the not to distant future so a drive /garage will be a must have feature they I suspect will raise my pension age again at the moment it's 67 I'd not be surprised if I get another 2 years on top to 69 I'm 54

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, stokiescum said:

I can get at a small pension next year maybe 22k after tax would you leave it there or get it out whilst I still can I suspect they will make it impossible in the future

Put it into drawdown,take out 25% tax free sum then take the rest when its best to do so for tax reasons.Il be drawing mine down from 55 (just before the increase to 57 hopefully) at £12.5k a year then £12.5k a year minus state pension from 67.There will be zero income tax coming off my pensions.

Once in drawdown they wont mess with that,it will be the ages they mess with.I see getting them into draw down as critical.They might change the years from 10 before state pensions to 5 or something.They are desperate to keep the people who work working,and pensions are a way for people to escape that early.

[King Penda]

56 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Put it into drawdown,take out 25% tax free sum then take the rest when its best to do so for tax reasons.Il be drawing mine down from 55 (just before the increase to 57 hopefully) at £12.5k a year then £12.5k a year minus state pension from 67.There will be zero income tax coming off my pensions.

Once in drawdown they wont mess with that,it will be the ages they mess with.I see getting them into draw down as critical.They might change the years from 10 before state pensions to 5 or something.They are desperate to keep the people who work working,and pensions are a way for people to escape that early.

I see your point however that then means paying more interest to the bank  has I won't be able to put that cash on top of my houses when I sell it i.e. Towards my next one .

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

I see your point however that then means paying more interest to the bank  has I won't be able to put that cash on top of my houses when I sell it i.e. Towards my next one .

True,i have no housing costs or debt so never factor in outgoings like that.

[King Penda]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

True,i have no housing costs or debt so never factor in outgoings like that.

I could go for the curved ball and use the system against itself by renting mine out to housing benefit and buying another terrace i could pay my mortgage off outright Thursday then stay here till next august take the 22k from the pension and probable 10k saved by then and put 30k down on a 50k house then take a lodger there has well that would enable to to slaughter the mortgage true I'd pay tax but I'd be giving the government some of its own money back with luck that would take a max of two years to buy the second one then sell both and buy a semi morally this would be wrong but it would be funny