Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[DurhamBorn]

37 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

where are they trading? equinor ADR on nyse (depsitory receipts) and repsol on spanish xtr?

just shove them on the kalamazoo witchita kansas watchemroo list of many great things.

Repsol has ADRs and on Spanish market,and Equinor ADR and Norway.Not sure on the advantages if any of the different markets for UK buyers.

[sancho panza]

13 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im not buying them yet,i expect oil to go below $20,but il start buying once it goes below $40 probably,maybe $35 in ladders as usual.I might actually ladder the buys in the companies based on the oil price,not their price.Im just starting to look at the sector at the moment and get the target companies and then set buy points.Its not one im too bothered about,but want some exposure for the cycle as i see oil going to around $200.Natural gas is more in my focus,so companies that are both oil and gas are better for me.Im not interested in the service companies,but i am interested in the companies in the chemical supply area for drilling etc.

Im pretty much set up now in UK stocks,focus now is more telcos,potash sector,chemical sector,oil and gas,industrial (supply of contruction equipment etc).Many are a long way through their downturns i think,some a lot more to go.Firms like Cargotec im going to buy wont be bought unless they get smashed down a lot more.

Ref the Telco's,I've been having a butchers tonight as I havent looked at them in ages.

Previosuly I was focused on mobile comms but having had a look through,theres some serious leverage in the mobile companies.

Worth ntoing Telenor/Singtel/Hutchison/Vod have some great cross holdings and in the case of ST and H ,low leverage(all the leverage is in the holdings -keeping the crap alength away)

Steering more towrd the hybrids now I think eg telstra/Telecom NZ/BT/VOD/ST-Telenor too leveraged from what I can see.WOuld add some US exposure atnthe right price

12 hours ago, NogintheNog said:

I really like Canadians. Except for this idiot! I bet the Canadians were glad to see the back of him

To quote him;

WTF! Does he think the Chinese Central Bank will wear that!?

I've never known any CBanker to flip flop on rates so much, one minute he's gonna raise them, next he's gonna slash them. I don't take any credence in anything he utters now.

I think this is a currency and trade war which the FED can't win, having backed themselves into a corner no matter what there will be some pain fighting their way out. And they know it.

As for a replacement reserve currency, why not just use Gold? The U.S. has plenty of it.....

At the end of the day, hes got the UK taxpayer on the hook for his pension, has got 8 years at an eye watering salary for doing virtually nothing.Mug he ain't.

 

All the time he was saying inflation is dead the BoE pension fund was piling into linkers.............need we say more

8 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

Interesting concept DB setting the buy points to the oil price rather than the share price. I'm guessing the oil price will do a V shaped recovery with depressed prices for a few months at most perhaps 6, or would you expect longer

I'm using this tactic by picking an ETF as a proxy for a sector and trying to outperform it

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

@Cattle Prod i agree to avoid shale.Im really interested in the decent sized companies.I want the ones who might double the divi or treble it in the next cycle.Been looking at the ones SP put up.Like Equinor and Repsol for starters.

Can't remember if I psoted my Sancho scores >17 for FCG

DVN 18

CLR 17

CXO 19

XEC 18

ECA 18

EQT 17

CNX 19

AR 18

ERF 21

SRCI 18

HESM 18

 

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Respsol is doing c. 715kbpd globally and if this discovery does anything like the adjacent Suban field (it looks like it so far on the data I've seen, but needs to be appraised) it'll do about 150-200kboepd @ 45% net to Repsol. And Indonesia can be very profitable gas. If it was ENI they'd have it producing within 2 years, but Repsol are a bit slower. I'll keep an eye on it.

It's always preferable when someone from within the industry can give an unbiased opinion on  what's happening in the sector.

[sancho panza]

93% off peak

[sancho panza]

Here we go.Mark to model works until Mr Market knocks on the door.

Anyone hodling these funds now needs their head examining

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/08/24/liquidity-crunch-hits-uk-equity-real-estate-funds-fears-of-no-deal-brexit/

Equity and property funds in the UK saw withdrawals of £2.5 billion in July, taking total outflows in 2019 so far to £12.4 billion, according to Morning Star data. Equity funds, with total assets of £691 billion, were down £1.6 billion in July and £10.6 billion so far this year. In a broad flight to safety, money market funds experienced their sixth consecutive month of inflows while investors poured £428 million into Fixed Income funds.

Morning Star analysts blamed the outflows from equity and property funds on fears over a UK recession and a no-deal Brexit. But there’s also a structural element at work: the mismatch in open-ended equity and property funds that offer investors daily redemptions while investing in assets that can take weeks or months to sell.

Few funds are as illiquid by nature as commercial property funds, which suffered £2.2 billion of outflows in the first seven months of this year. Just two funds — M&G Property Portfolio and Aberdeen UK Property — accounted for 89% of the £417 million of outflows in July.

“The prices of commercial property – which accounts for most of these funds’ investments – are heavily influenced by the macro environment and if investors believe a downturn is ahead, they are less likely to invest in property funds,” said Morningstar analyst Bhavik Parekh.

At M&G Property Portfolio, the outflows recently turned into a torrent, which then turned into a classic run on the fund, and managers ended up blocking redemptions as they tried to offload properties in the portfolio, including British retail parks, offices and industry property. Selling these assets at survivable prices, rather than fire sale prices, can take months or longer.

The gating of the fund stoked fears of a replay of the chaos that briefly swept the UK’s property fund sector in the wake of the Brexit vote in late June 2016, when the value of commercial real estate in the City of London crashed 6% in just one month and six commercial real estate funds, including M&G, temporarily suspended redemptions as panicked investors rushed for the exits.

To try to prevent that from happening again, some open-ended property funds are penalizing investors who cash in their holdings by marking down the value of the underlying properties in the fund. The latest fund to do so, BMO Holding, said it has (in the industry’s jargon) changed its fund pricing from “offer” to “bid”, leaving investors who dare to sell the fund shouldering an instant loss of approximately 6.4%.

“With heightened uncertainty in the UK property market, in part driven by the increased risks of a ‘no-deal’ exit from the EU, a number of investors in the sector have looked to trim their exposure. As such, the fund has seen modest outflows,” said Guy Glover, fund manager of BMO UK Property.

It’s not just fear that is driving investors to withdraw their money from property funds; there’s also widespread disappointment at the dwindling returns on offer, due in part to the larger cash buffers the funds have had to build up to try to avoid a rerun of Summer 2016. In May, the average level of cash exposure for UK direct property funds reached 19.5%, up from 14.6% in May 2016, according to the FT.

In expanding their cash buffers, open-ended property funds now have less money on hand to invest in actual income-generating assets. Funds in the Investment Association’s UK direct property sector generated average annualized returns of 4.4% over the three years to the end of June — 42% less than the 7.6% returns notched up during the previous three-year period.

With a no-deal Brexit looming ever larger, funds can be forgiven for toeing a cautious line, especially in light of recent developments at the £3.9 billion Woodford Equity Income Fund (WEIF), where a run on the fund prompted its manager, former hedge-fund legend Neil Woodford, to place a ban on redemptions. Over 300,000 (mainly retail) investors were left trapped with no means of accessing their funds.

What many of those investors hadn’t realized was that although WEIF was offering daily liquidity, most of its assets were extremely illiquid. By the end of May, the fund’s holdings of lightly traded micro-, small- and mid-cap stocks accounted for 97% its assets, according to Morning Star data.

The suspension on redemptions at Woodford has already been extended until December as the fund struggles to sell those assets. WEIF has already fallen by 11.2% since the suspension, compared with a 1.5% gain on its benchmark index, the FTSE All Share Total Return. Fears are growing that it may never reopen at all.

The Bank of England in July reiterated a warning it first issued in 2015 about “the vulnerabilities associated with liquidity mismatch in funds that offered short-term redemptions while investing in longer-dated and potentially illiquid assets.” Aside from requesting a fresh review of open-ended funds, which are estimated to hold some $30 trillion in assets globally, the central bank has taken no other action.

Some investors appear to be already taking matters into their own hands by yanking their money from other open-ended equity income funds. So far this year, over £10 billion has been pulled from UK equity funds. The Silver-rated JOHCM UK Equity Income fund, one of the 10 worst performers in July, suffered its largest ever monthly outflows, with £257 million withdrawn from the fund in the month. Neutral-rated Majedie UK Equity suffered outflows of £200 million.

The UK is home to more than 3,200 open-ended funds, which have total assets under management (AUM) of £1.5 trillion, up from £484 billion a decade ago, according to the Financial Conduct Authority. If the current pace of outflows from these funds continues, or even picks up in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the risk,as Bank of England governor Mark Carney recently warned, could very quickly become systemic. By Nick Corbishley, for WOLF STREET.

HSBC’s pleas of innocence have won little sympathy in Beijing. Read…  HSBC Runs into Buzzsaw in Hong Kong & China, its Home Market Generating 75% of its Profits

[MrXxxx]

7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

the end of the day, hes got the UK taxpayer on the hook for his pension, has got 8 years at an eye watering salary for doing virtually nothing.Mug he ain't.

 

All the time he was saying inflation is dead the BoE pension fund was piling into linkers.............need we say more

As always, `Dont listen to what they say, watch what they do`!

[DurhamBorn]

Its amazing as SP says above that people are rushing into fixed income.Now if it was people on here buying treasuries etc for the short term great,but it wont be,it will be people mostly buying into low grade bond funds,of even decent ones.These are exactly the investments that will be hit very hard in the next cycle,mainly due to inflation.

If anyone is interested i use this for lots of liquidity stuff.Its technical the cross market work,but in simple terms a spike in one country can say their currency is getting over valued and ripe for a fall.

https://www.bis.org/statistics/about_gli_stats.htm

[M.C. UK]

From Tom MacClellan tweet on gold

Commercial traders of gold futures are net short again in a huge way.

https://mobile.twitter.com/McClellanOsc/status/1165090134489853952/photo/1

 

https://t.co/hoRb3P0AAR

[dgul]

9 minutes ago, M.C. UK said:

From Tom MacClellan tweet on gold

Commercial traders of gold futures are net short again in a huge way.

https://mobile.twitter.com/McClellanOsc/status/1165090134489853952/photo/1

 

https://t.co/hoRb3P0AAR

So, that suggests that gold is over-extending it's run and is poised to reduce in price at some point soonish.  Of course, the trouble with COT, just like any other measure, is how 'extended' it can become before it turns.

[Durabo]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49423590

An interesting article about Chinas growing Military influence in Asia. I wonder how much the trade dispute is in response to this? Economic warfare as a way to curb Military spending and prevent China spending money and spreading influence in the region. Could the next recession be part of a strategy to bring about regime change in China as a response to their growing power?

[Barnsey]

2 hours ago, dgul said:

So, that suggests that gold is over-extending it's run and is poised to reduce in price at some point soonish.  Of course, the trouble with COT, just like any other measure, is how 'extended' it can become before it turns.

 

[sleepwello'nights]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its amazing as SP says above that people are rushing into fixed income.Now if it was people on here buying treasuries etc for the short term great,but it wont be,it will be people mostly buying into low grade bond funds,of even decent ones.These are exactly the investments that will be hit very hard in the next cycle,mainly due to inflation.

If anyone is interested i use this for lots of liquidity stuff.Its technical the cross market work,but in simple terms a spike in one country can say their currency is getting over valued and ripe for a fall.

https://www.bis.org/statistics/about_gli_stats.htm

I don't understand that data, but heh just shows my ignorance.

Anyway the best performing fund I've got in Vanguard is UK inflation-linked Gilt index fund, up around 15% over the last 12 months.

[DurhamBorn]

12 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

I don't understand that data, but heh just shows my ignorance.

Anyway the best performing fund I've got in Vanguard is UK inflation-linked Gilt index fund, up around 15% over the last 12 months.

Yes gilts and treasuries as expected next best after the PM miners.Its the perfect time to cash in a DB pension if the trustees prices off the long bond as a lot do.We could see negative rates for a very short period,but we are right towards the end of the road map on rates now considering 7%+ maybe even mid double digit rates might arrive in the next cycle.

Iv actually been thinking about this today in regards to insurers who do annuities.Im trying to work out if increasing rates will mean massive released cash for them,or a disaster.L+G have done a lot of bulk annuity deals.Im presuming rising rates would mean big profits,but not sure.

Iv also been looking at my "the market hurts as many people as possible" mantra.Given wealth is going to be taken back im trying to road map how that is likely to happen.In the US you would have to think a collapse in the FANG stocks.In the UK house prices.The other is final salary government and council pensions.(and some private).What would claw that back?.Inflation above pay increases and rising rates would seem the likely outcome.If inflation runs before wages will the public stomach 10% council tax increases?

Rates at 7% will also finish off equity release outside of the top 20% price bracket.House is my pension will evaporate.

 

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, M.C. UK said:

From Tom MacClellan tweet on gold

Commercial traders of gold futures are net short again in a huge way.

https://mobile.twitter.com/McClellanOsc/status/1165090134489853952/photo/1

 

https://t.co/hoRb3P0AAR

Traders were hugely net short 2007-2011when gold rocketed.Commericals being net short is the normal state of affairs.Commercials are the people like jewellers who sue gold daily.They hedge short so they aren't left with stock they can't make a profit  on.When commercials go net long it can be a sign a that they see no point in hedging

Having said that,technically very overbought.Must be due a pullback but I've been saying that for three weeks

[Barnsey]

26 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

That net long signal was bang on the money. IIRC @DurhamBorn highligthed it at the time. Net short now, but they have to be. Question is, are they relatively long?

 

[sancho panza]

On 24/08/2019 at 18:23, Cattle Prod said:

Agree with this. I need to set up ladders too because it may only spike low for a day or days on the front month contract for no reason other than a massive selloff. If you look at a long term oil consumptiom curve, 08-09 is a minor blip, but it was massively sold off. What an opportunity. 

I think shale will disappear for other reasons, at least until the price is much higher. $150 sounds about right, pity the wells are gassing out already with the oil sold for a third of that.

I'm "forget it" long BP and RDSB, and 6-9 month long some mid caps and etfs. Think we might get a spike like 07 and I want to be covered for that. Everyone seems to be short, and hates oil, which suits me. Though I need to look at COT again.

Edit: attached is a 50 year consumption curve. It'll be hard to shift that trend in 2-5 years. Much easier for supply to decline. Timing will be tricky though, I'm tempted to just keep the companies I think will survive the bust.

@DurhamBorn I'm interested in your preference for natural gas. I agree it has a better and more useful future, but there is a lot still being discovered. I need to do some work to marry that up with consumption

Oil is getting hated.Like you-or at least I think you're implying- once the Fed starts QE an rat cuts(which they'll do until they blow up a few banks),we shoudl get a weaker dollar phase.That will be a net positive for commodities especially oil.I'm genuienly getting excited at the red days and what they're doing to big oil & gas.I keep think they look cheap,then they get cheaper still.

My thinking has changed as theyve dropped, to the point where Im weighing moving us up to a position where we're 20% big oil,3-5% oils services(OIH/XES),3-5% Nat Gas(FCG).But I'm having to do a double take at some of the prices and wondering if I'm missing something obvious,becuse all I can see in big oil at the minute is great value and a super chance to hedge our sterling risk.I'll be looking to sell if/when  the dollar starts to firm but that would only be with a view to reinvesting as the dollar weakens again

 

Twenty year COT and then a one year COT for a better picture

Current commercials position doesn't seem unsual.

21 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Really appreciate your input and knowledge on the sector as im sure everyone else does.Dogger bank wind could produce 5% of the UKs electric,thats a beast.

Thats two added to my buying list then.Like the sound of that gas find for Repsol.They are yielding 7% already,a nice knockdown from there would be very nice.I need to find out how you get cash rather than scrip from the divis though when in a nominee account.

x2.

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, dgul said:

So, that suggests that gold is over-extending it's run and is poised to reduce in price at some point soonish.  Of course, the trouble with COT, just like any other measure, is how 'extended' it can become before it turns.

As you say,things can be overbought for ages.As per my previous answer,commercials being net short is the normal state of affiars.RSI is as extended as at the peak in 07

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

 

He's picking his points on the chart,although I take his more general point.eg saying commercials net long for gold was a bad sign when it was a good sign last year.eg 2 extreme commercials net short can bad for gold mid 2016

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

That net long signal was bang on the money. IIRC @DurhamBorn highligthed it at the time. Net short now, but they have to be. Question is, are they relatively long?

good point re price and duration, not all futures contracts are created equal

[King Penda]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes gilts and treasuries as expected next best after the PM miners.Its the perfect time to cash in a DB pension if the trustees prices off the long bond as a lot do.We could see negative rates for a very short period,but we are right towards the end of the road map on rates now considering 7%+ maybe even mid double digit rates might arrive in the next cycle.

Iv actually been thinking about this today in regards to insurers who do annuities.Im trying to work out if increasing rates will mean massive released cash for them,or a disaster.L+G have done a lot of bulk annuity deals.Im presuming rising rates would mean big profits,but not sure.

Iv also been looking at my "the market hurts as many people as possible" mantra.Given wealth is going to be taken back im trying to road map how that is likely to happen.In the US you would have to think a collapse in the FANG stocks.In the UK house prices.The other is final salary government and council pensions.(and some private).What would claw that back?.Inflation above pay increases and rising rates would seem the likely outcome.If inflation runs before wages will the public stomach 10% council tax increases?

Rates at 7% will also finish off equity release outside of the top 20% price bracket.House is my pension will evaporate.

 

I could Handel a 10% increase in my council tax that's £6.70 but I would not Handel a labour government that's likely to remove the 25% discount for single ocupanency 

[King Penda]

23 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yes thats the most likely path to a blow off top. No recession, QE 4eva and loadsamoney. Then boom and the pain. But as you say the smart money will be into the dollar and I'll be out of oil (and maybe a job :-))

Your council tax is £67? Feck I need to move to Stokie

Yes but wages around here are shit and your car could well be worth more than my house lol

[DurhamBorn]

39 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I don't think so. There is no surprise supply waiting in the wings, and I think the demand fear, is for now just that, fear.

I genuinely think this is because there is a perception of infinite supply from the US, which is nonsense. The market has still not fully priced in the Aramco revelations either - Saudi production is in decline and there is no spare capacity. Oil is set for a spike from 3 or 4 angles, with the main counter being imminent recession. I think crash will cime after a stock blow off, in 6-9 months time, so the market can hurt most people, as DB points out. 

However, DB sees oil lower from here on liquidity flows, which worries me. So I've stayed in stocks and out of the commodity itself.

Perception is everything in oil. My line manager hasn't a scooby what I do, let alone investors 4 steps up the chain. The vast majority of oil market participants are guessing, never forget that. I have my convictions but also biases, but a geologist is the one who is trained to smell a pattern. 

Dyor as ever, I am only stating what I am doing, and I hope it's helpful.

Your insight is invaluable to everyone me included.The downturn in the world economy should move quickly enough to see oil down,then we should see a final steep sell off.However as always in these things its not certain.At the moment we have some currency up,some down etc,so oil isnt seeing massive buying yet,but it will.

Its highly likely just as everyone thinks oil is finished,future is electric etc and it gets whacked down on world growth,it enters its biggest bull ever.

I hope to start buying well before any likely bottom in case it turns early.Imagine a supply squeeze at the same time as demand is shooting up and ALL fiat currency is being de-valued (apart from maybe a select few resource heavy like Norway,Canada and Aus)

[King Penda]

5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Your insight is invaluable to everyone me included.The downturn in the world economy should move quickly enough to see oil down,then we should see a final steep sell off.However as always in these things its not certain.At the moment we have some currency up,some down etc,so oil isnt seeing massive buying yet,but it will.

Its highly likely just as everyone thinks oil is finished,future is electric etc and it gets whacked down on world growth,it enters its biggest bull ever.

I hope to start buying well before any likely bottom in case it turns early.Imagine a supply squeeze at the same time as demand is shooting up and ALL fiat currency is being de-valued (apart from maybe a select few resource heavy like Norway,Canada and Aus)

Has oil drops airline shares should go up well in theory 

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

I don't think so. There is no surprise supply waiting in the wings, and I think the demand fear, is for now just that, fear.

I genuinely think this is because there is a perception of infinite supply from the US, which is nonsense. The market has still not fully priced in the Aramco revelations either - Saudi production is in decline and there is no spare capacity. Oil is set for a spike from 3 or 4 angles, with the main counter being imminent recession. I think crash will cime after a stock blow off, in 6-9 months time, so the market can hurt most people, as DB points out. 

However, DB sees oil lower from here on liquidity flows, which worries me. So I've stayed in stocks and out of the commodity itself.

Perception is everything in oil. My line manager hasn't a scooby what I do, let alone investors 4 steps up the chain. The vast majority of oil market participants are guessing, never forget that. I have my convictions but also biases, but a geologist is the one who is trained to smell a pattern. 

Dyor as ever, I am only stating what I am doing, and I hope it's helpful.

As per what DB said,really appreciate input from people inside an industry and this thread/forum (hail spunko) brings good minds together from across many walks of life.

I've friends from a lot of backgrounds.One is relatively high up on the engineering side of a UK utility and he was saying something similar the other week.Went to a meeting where they'd spent a fortune getting people together to discuss a project that was based on the lead guy's really poor understanding of the engineering involved.He said once he'd explained that what was being asked was technically unlikely/improbable/impractical, then all of a sudden there were a lot of nodding heads.

I used to have a few friends in the city and I remember them laughing at me selling tech stocks in the late 90's and then selling banks post Northern Crock in 07.You'd be genuinely amazed how bad they are investors in their own right.Which is one of the reasons my Grandad never trusted banks/brokers and he imbued that in me back in the early 90's.

 

At the moment,I think we're in the behavioural section @Harley discussed where the fundamentals of the current sell off is a lot worse than the underlying commodity is performing and looks set to perform over the next year.There's value here in that arbitrage.I sense it and then when an insider with a long history of postingwith integrity confirms it,then my interest is really pricked.Given where oil is  and where it could go if the dollar drops,then there's value here.As per Buffet,be greedy when others are fearful etc

My experience of the City through friends is that msot analysts are compelte bullshitters and don't have any real clue what they're doing?In fact I'm far more liekly to listen to posters on here than I am to the guy from Barclays who's always trying to pimp with offers I can't lose on.....until of course you do.

 

[DurhamBorn]

36 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

I could Handel a 10% increase in my council tax that's £6.70 but I would not Handel a labour government that's likely to remove the 25% discount for single ocupanency 

£10.20 here,we have the highest council tax in the country,mainly as we have always had a Labour council who even at this very moment are building a new multi million council offices in Durham on the banks of the river.Couldnt of picked a more crazy place.

[sancho panza]

26 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Your insight is invaluable to everyone me included.The downturn in the world economy should move quickly enough to see oil down,then we should see a final steep sell off.However as always in these things its not certain.At the moment we have some currency up,some down etc,so oil isnt seeing massive buying yet,but it will.

Its highly likely just as everyone thinks oil is finished,future is electric etc and it gets whacked down on world growth,it enters its biggest bull ever.

I hope to start buying well before any likely bottom in case it turns early.Imagine a supply squeeze at the same time as demand is shooting up and ALL fiat currency is being de-valued (apart from maybe a select few resource heavy like Norway,Canada and Aus)

I'd take the last two.

Ref oil,it's going to be interesing to see how low the current sell off can take stocks.But I am very tempted to start my ladders on Statoil/Repsol/ENI/Gazprom very soon

Reality is that faith in fiat currency is about to be tested big time in the medium term and hence why I'm all about finding sterling neutral ways of maintaining spending power.Oil/gold/rare earths/potash/gas.Not interested in any fiancials but HSBC/Standard possibly at the bottom.

25 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

Has oil drops airline shares should go up well in theory 

if oil drops due to aggregate demand then a falling oil price will only cushion the delfatonary effect of the former

[King Penda]

6 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I'd take the last two.

Ref oil,it's going to be interesing to see how low the current sell off can take stocks.But I am very tempted to start my ladders on Statoil/Repsol/ENI/Gazprom very soon

Reality is that faith in fiat currency is about to be tested big time in the medium term and hence why I'm all about finding sterling neutral ways of maintaining spending power.Oil/gold/rare earths/potash/gas.Not interested in any fiancials but HSBC/Standard possibly at the bottom.

if oil drops due to aggregate demand then a falling oil price will only cushion the delfatonary effect of the former

The canary in the coal mine to me has an uneducated oaf is the builders forget charts if your new to the stock market watch the builders they are often

tje first into a crash and the first out that’s my simple way of looking at a very complicated problem

in an uncomplicated way