Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[sancho panza]

Chart tracking changes to big oil from when Brent went over $50.

 

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Boon said:

In this day and age it seems impossible to me. The bigger it gets, it gets more dependent on others for hosting, banking.  Both of which can be removed.

Pressure can be put on the top person; who wants to become another Assange? 

Just a general observation but I find it very interesting and informative, that in moments like this, people of 'the left' - like say Robert Peston (or others already in political life, i.e. don't mean to specifically pick on Peston) - don't step forward to become a 'focal point' and to reveal to people how things really are. Instead it is people from the 'so-called' right who often fulfill this role of attempting to rally the masses. I'm thinking Farage, Trump, le Penn, and also many other politicians in Europe. Yes, these leaders are smeared as being mere 'populists', but I think this is how things will play out - that it will be a right-of-center leader who will capture the hearts/minds/twitter accounts(or its accomodative replacement!) of the people... or will it be different next time? 

 

[leonardratso]

hmm

[Hunty]

3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

@HuntyBP just hit 2.72!

The Gap has been filled @2.72.

She might linger a little to reassure that the bottom of the trading channel has been met for a few days?

All my orders have been confirmed at around ~2.72~2.735

We are now in buy territory so let's watch where she goes today.

Could get interesting when it opens over the pond.

Gap at 2.92. Hopefully next stop!

 

GLA

 

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, Hunty said:

The Gap has been filled @2.72

which gap was that? got a chart? cheers

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 minute ago, leonardratso said:

hmm

Interesting. AG = First Majestic.

[Ma2]

Maybe not the best place to post but having a bit of a dilemma. People have mentioned a few times that there are some really interesting 10/15 year fixed mortgage deals around at the moment so I had a review of some and this 10yr from Coventry looks the best in terms of rate and early repayment charges

• 2.29% Fixed rate to 31.03.31
• 5.00% of the balance repaid until 31.03.23, then 3.00% until 31.03.26

• You can repay up to 10% of the capital p.a. without an early repayment charge

• Application fee: None
• Product fee: £999 (can be added to mortgage)
• Mortgage exit fee: £125
• Funds transfer fee: £8
• One valuation included for properties up to the value of £1,000,000
• Remortgage Transfer Service included

I'm really struggling with whether to re-mortgage now or not though. My current 5 year fix finishes in October and I really don't want to be agonising for the next 9 months over whether attractive 10/15 year fixes will still be available then.

But... it's going to cost aroud £3,700 to switch with the new product fee and current early repayment fees (2% even in final year - Leeds ). That's money that could be invested (or used to support WSB and the end of days ).

I reckon the opportunity cost of waiting and there being no decent deals later in the year means it makes better sense to invest the money in peace of mind for the next 10 years and go for the fix now.

Even if I get say 5% p.a. on £3,700 that would only total £2,400 interest compounded over 10 years

If my mortgage rate on £125k went up to say 6% (average) for 10 years that would be around £75,000 interest vs £28,500 interest when fixed at 2.28 interest over 10 years which saves £46,500 interest?

Anyone else looking into this and done any sums? I don't trust my maths...!

Also they keep asking me if I want to borrow more than I owe, per other discussions that is really tempting at 2.28% but think I'll play it safe for now

[nirvana]

10 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

hmm

in other thread...

First Majestic: Pre Market (half-spread):  28 Jan, 12:19  19.1050  +5.2150 (+37.72%)

copyright @BearyBear

edit, it's not moving yet 

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

https://wsb.gold/public/dashboard/e65fcfcb-70a4-4d86-b7fb-888057c67881

This is the WSB stats page. Shows the most commonly referenced tickers. AG isn't high on the list.

Daily Mail is touting American Airlines as being next on the WSB hitlist. Nonsense. 

[Democorruptcy]

American Airlines are currently up 80% in pre-market trading. They have 25% short interest, 152m shares.

Are we going to see firms have huge gains from people rushing to close shorts in case they are the next reddit target. Then if this reddit thing is closed down, a lot of firms that went up on fear, would then be worth shorting on fundamentals, IF.... you had the balls?

This is NOT advice

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Im ready for the Victorian post apocalypse 

 

A 'Victorian post apocalypse' you say... looks like a monetization of 'Steam Punk' to me - great, i'm all in!!!

[goldbug9999]

2 minutes ago, Ma2 said:

If my mortgage rate on £125k went up to say 6% (average)

6% mortgage rate ? on what planet is that going happen. 

[leonardratso]

7 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

in other thread...

First Majestic: Pre Market (half-spread):  28 Jan, 12:19  19.1050  +5.2150 (+37.72%)

copyright @BearyBear

aha

but i did quote it yesterday here when it was +37% or something, i was just following up on that.

so your copyright is void since i took the patent on it last night.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, geordie_lurch said:

More evidence they might be on the ropes...

Nasdaq CEO Suggests Halt to Trading to Allow Investors to ‘Recalibrate Their Positions’ After GameStop Surge

Nasdaq CEO Adena Friedman suggested Wednesday that her exchange could halt trading activity for stocks, in the event they were targeted by internet users, to enable the exchange to investigate possible manipulation and allow investors to “recalibrate.”

She made the comment in a morning interview with CNBC’s Joe Kernen, speaking in reference to price surges inspired by Reddit users. Members of the website’s “WallStreetBets” forum caused stock prices to surge to obscene heights this week for companies including GameStop and AMC Theatres.

“I think that, in general, when we evaluate how we would manage through a situation where you see a significant run-up in a stock not based on news, not based on fundamentals — what we do is we do have technology that evaluates social media chatter. If we see a significant rise in the chatter on social media channels … we also match that up against unusual trading activity, [and] potentially halt that stock to allow ourselves to investigate the situation, to be able to engage with the company, and to give investors a chance to recalibrate their positions.”

https://www.mediaite.com/news/nasdaq-ceo-suggests-halt-to-trading-to-allow-big-investors-to-recalibrate-their-positions-to-combat-reddit-users/

Clearly not all investors.  Maybe "mates" would be a better word?

 

[Harley]

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

I think this could suck a lot of liquidity out of things

I don't think this was the kind of velocity of money TPTB were thinking of when they printed!

[geordie_lurch]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

I don't think this was the kind of velocity of money TPTB were thinking of when they printed!

I know but we were all talking about this new QE / stimulus going to the people not the bankers this time

[Harley]

1 hour ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

you should already be prepped! This is me and a mate having a 'hedge fund' meeting earlier 

 

Just rememember the SMG kicks up badly so keep on some top pressure else it'll be clay pigeon time!

[ThoughtCriminal]

5 minutes ago, Harley said:

Clearly not all investors.  Maybe "mates" would be a better word?

 

Anyone who thinks there's a free market is insane. Or is about to arse rape you. 

[goldbug9999]

11 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

American Airlines are currently up 80% in pre-market trading. They have 25% short interest, 152m shares.

Are we going to see firms have huge gains from people rushing to close shorts in case they are the next reddit target. Then if this reddit thing is closed down, a lot of firms that went up on fear, would then be worth shorting on fundamentals, IF.... you had the balls?

This is NOT advice

So what were looking at is a total inversion of fundamental stock valuations as everyone rushes out to buy the worst performing most shorted companies ?. ... And people keep telling me there no "logic" to bitcoin.

[Heart's Ease]

1 minute ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Anyone who thinks there's a free market is insane. Or is about to arse rape you. 

And AMC. 

Robinhood sacrificed to keep the plates spinning?

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, goldbug9999 said:

So what were looking at is a total inversion of fundamental stock valuations

meh! the FED started it in 2008, I don't see a problem with these 'free markets' myself 

[geordie_lurch]

2 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Anyone who thinks there's a free market is insane. Or is about to arse rape you. 

If the Reddit lot get cheated out of their legitimate gains here I can see them trying to tear down the whole thing - physical metals and Bitcoin would seem the obvious choice to stick it to TPTB

[Democorruptcy]

Just now, goldbug9999 said:

So what were looking at is a total inversion of fundamental stock valuations as everyone rushes out to but the worst performing most shorted companies ?.

Yes, the firms have so many shorts because they don't have good fundamentals. In the short term they could go up as the shorts are closed.

Folk like Michael Burry could be making fortunes, even if he isn't really doing anything with Gamestop, that was just the torpedo. He could be temporarily going long as shorts are closed on other firms. I think we are going to find out which are the shrewdest hedge funds, where there are winners, somebody has to pay and others go bust.

 

[feed]

8 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

If the Reddit lot get cheated out of their legitimate gains here I can see them trying to tear down the whole thing - physical metals and Bitcoin would seem the obvious choice to stick it to TPTB

That’s going to make it worse. They’ll just move onto something else.  They should really be trying to keep it contained to a few stocks. Let them have a win, some gains and throw a hedge or two under the bus.  Let those who came late to party lose their paper gains as it unwinds.  

Antagonizing the mob is insane.
 

[leonardratso]

1 minute ago, feed said:

That’s going to make it worse. They’ll just move onto something else.  They should really be trying to keep it contained to a few stocks. Let them have a win, some gains and throw a hedge or two under the bus.  Let those who came late to party lose their paper gains as it unwinds.  

Antagonizing the mob is insane.
 

true, silver is being mentioned more now on the reddit, maybe theyve forced them elsewhere, contagion.