Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[CVG]

4 minutes ago, A tremendous # on the lung said:

What's the best play on this? Is there a general ETF or similar?

I can remember riding the JPM Natural Resources fund in my AVC during that last peak. It played a significant role in my ability to retire early.

[Bricormortis]

27 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

That seems to end around 2018. It is interesting but would be good to see if the turn has begun. Also how much lower that line got.

https://www.isabelnet.com/commodities-to-sp-500-ratio/

This chart gives it to 2019, best I can do,  moves sideways approximately

[Yadda yadda yadda]

8 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

https://www.isabelnet.com/commodities-to-sp-500-ratio/

This chart gives it to 2019, best I can do,  moves sideways approximately

Thanks. Still going slowly down at that point. Must have turned by now. Will reverse sharply if the market goes BK.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, janch said:

I'm in the same quandry for the same reasons!  I do remember @DurhamBorna few pages back saying he's sold his BHP as the big miners were running too fast and @sancho panza's charts of metal futures also look "toppy".  Yet the City am article posted by @Heart's Ease is screaming "buy".

I'm thinking some of the people who in the past would have invested in oil were put off by the ESG stuff and so put their money into commodities instead so maybe there'll be a pullback in the large miners as people take some out and put it in the oilies now they see the price of oil going up.

I shall keep a close eye and may put some in on any dips plus I'm prepared to hold through a BK and add more at the lows for all the reflation stocks.

IMO many resource stocks are overbought ATM.  They can stay overbought but usually the best of the price action has happened by then and price gets more volatile with an increased risk of going nowhere.  All over the longer (monthly) term.

[Errol]

 

[Hancock]

10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

It's weird ,the four they name aren't the usual suspect eg Spelthorne which means there's even more bad news out there.

I've said this before but these councils need reorganisning for the modern world.Leicesterhire has something like ten district councils plus county and Leicester city.All have chief execs on £150k plus and reams of hangers on picking up fat salareis for doing next to nothing.

Even a very close firend who's a right lefty was saying the other night that they coukd do it with one council.We could save tens of millions a year.

Let's have a look at Harbought District council,200 employees and resposnible for

'Each district council covers a smaller area and provides more local services, including council housing, local planning, recycling and refuse collection and leisure facilities.'

Obviously, a lot of workers are employeed by the contractors.But still,no reason why the County council couldn't run the lot.

94,000 residents according to WIki.Here's the slary structure.It's eye watering.

file:///C:/Users/capta/AppData/Local/Temp/CMT_structure_January_2021.pdf

All those names except one strike me as white British. (isnt Leicester an area where white British are now a minority)

Surely these lefty socialists need to hire a diversity officer to sack them and replace them with some more diversity. 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

30 minutes ago, Hancock said:

All those names except one strike me as white British. (isnt Leicester an area where white British are now a minority)

Surely these lefty socialists need to hire a diversity officer to sack them and replace them with some more diversity. 

I think that is Harborough District Council. Hence the 94,000 population and largely British staff. I've no idea what Market Harborough is like but it isn't Leicester City. However, makes the salaries even more amazing. It isn't a large council.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Can any kind soul jog my memory about a share that was mentioned on here a couple of months ago? 

 

I believe it was an oil tanker company, possibly Swedish?? Their price plummeted after the 2008 fiasco and is now at an ATL just bumping along. 

 

Serves me right for not noting it down. 

[leonardratso]

12 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Can any kind soul jog my memory about a share that was mentioned on here a couple of months ago? 

 

I believe it was an oil tanker company, possibly Swedish?? Their price plummeted after the 2008 fiasco and is now at an ATL just bumping along. 

 

Serves me right for not noting it down. 

hmm, only 1 i can remember is frontline

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frontline_Ltd.

dont think its swedish though, might be since the ceo sounds swedish or some such.

[Loki]

20 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Can any kind soul jog my memory about a share that was mentioned on here a couple of months ago? 

 

I believe it was an oil tanker company, possibly Swedish?? Their price plummeted after the 2008 fiasco and is now at an ATL just bumping along. 

 

Serves me right for not noting it down. 

Euronav?

[ThoughtCriminal]

7 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

hmm, only 1 i can remember is frontline

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frontline_Ltd.

dont think its swedish though, might be since the ceo sounds swedish or some such.

That's the bugger! Norwegian owner. 

 

Knew there was some Scandinavian link there 😂

 

Cheers L! 👍

Just now, Loki said:

Euronav?

Its Frontline. Leo just got it for me. 

 

Cheers though Loki 👍

[leonardratso]

19 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

That's the bugger! Norwegian owner. 

 

Knew there was some Scandinavian link there 😂

 

Cheers L! 👍

Its Frontline. Leo just got it for me. 

 

Cheers though Loki 👍

i think YRS pumped it? or maybe not, for its 30% dividend. I bought a few anyway with loose change, its done alright considering its high risk;

another of my zero analysis chuck ins.

[ThoughtCriminal]

20 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

i think YRS pumped it? or maybe not, for its 30% dividend. I bought a few anyway with loose change, its done alright considering its high risk;

another of my zero analysis chuck ins.

Whereas I dithered and now it's up over 40%

 

What a dick 🤦‍♂️😂

 

Fair play to you though, good call 👌

[ThoughtCriminal]

 

 

Michael Burry on the upcoming inflation. 

 

Quote thread on run up to Weimar is great stuff. Could be describing now. 

[Option5]

48 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

That's the bugger! Norwegian owner. 

 

Knew there was some Scandinavian link there 😂

 

Cheers L! 👍

Its Frontline. Leo just got it for me. 

 

Cheers though Loki 👍

His other businesses, especially Seadrill are in deep shit.

[leonardratso]

17 minutes ago, Option5 said:

His other businesses, especially Seadrill are in deep shit.

hehe, not suprised, every one knows a black and decker wont work underwater.

 

Offshore drilling rig contractor Seadrill has filed for bankruptcy protection at a court in the U.S. state of Texas, it said on Wednesday, the second time in four years the company has entered into so-called Chapter 11 restructuring.The Oslo-listed group controlled by Norwegian-born billionaire John Fredriksen returned to court along with several subsidiaries after failing to win consent from bank lenders to postpone payments on $5…

hahaha, nice cut off point, i can lend them that $5 if they want to pay me back $8 later.

https://www.oedigital.com/seadrill

Another great headline on that page;

Vantage Drilling Agrees to Manage Seadrill Partners' Floaters

I think ill give black and decker a call and see if they can manage my floaters.

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, Harley said:

IMO many resource stocks are overbought ATM.  They can stay overbought but usually the best of the price action has happened by then and price gets more volatile with an increased risk of going nowhere.  All over the longer (monthly) term.

Agree,i sold BHP as i was up around 100% on them in a year.The time to buy them was last March.Iv owned them and Anglo around 7 times in my life and il own them again,just not now.They are fantastic companies,but i always buy them when they are hated.I actually think BHP are worth around £26 a share,but i wanted 65% over the cycle and so they had to go.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

 

 

Michael Burry on the upcoming inflation. 

 

Quote thread on run up to Weimar is great stuff. Could be describing now. 

They arent even hiding it.They need it,they want it,and they will get it.Western economies are in a systemic risk zone.We wont get hyperinflation though,just high,nasty inflation.It will be brutal to people who have fixed incomes or pensions invested in the wrong areas.Its laughable how people think growth companies will save them from an inflation cycle.Its the worst area to be invested in.The hated sectors are the protection and they are hardly owned.

[Errol]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

It will be brutal to people who have fixed incomes 

So basically the entire working population then?

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, Errol said:

So basically the entire working population then?

No,the entire unworking population.

[ashestoashes]

2 minutes ago, Errol said:

So basically the entire working population then?

don't see how people are going to get pay rises

[ThoughtCriminal]

Now there's a scary chart. 

[Castlevania]

On 05/02/2021 at 23:16, Democorruptcy said:

It does get my goat because I suggested HL changed it last year. I'm not convinced some newbies won't get sucked in, while interest are so low.

Ian Cowie in the Sunday Times today had a moan about HL’s dividend data being wrong and contacted HL to tell them. HL are apparently “looking to correct these issues”. Don’t hold your breath.

[ThoughtCriminal]

2 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

This chart is quite something isn’t it?
 

It suggests a Big Kahuna ....no? 
 

Maybe time to sit and build cash? 

They certainly seem to have detached from their normal pattern. 

 

So either a new paradigm or maybe the BK will be even bigger than DH thinks? 

[ThoughtCriminal]

2 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Ian Cowie in the Sunday Times today had a moan about HL’s dividend data being wrong and contacted HL to tell them. HL are apparently “looking to correct these issues”. Don’t hold your breath.

Arent most on here using HL? 

 

Or are they starting to go off the boil?