Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[JMD]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I dont actually think this is the right thread for people who worry about being down 10%/20% etc on individual stocks.

For myself i road map a cycle, and this one ahead is probably ending around 2028/30.My portfolio is designed to out run inflation. I see roughly 69% inflation over the cycle and i hope to match and outperform that.

Excuse this long post, its a 2-parter, here it goes...

DB, yep i agree too many 'armchair tacticians' popping up to comment when this thread is all about 'surviving the strategic war'. So for those with a gentle disposition, best not listen to below podcast, the guest is very insightful about past market bubbles, but he also gets very dark and contemplative toward the end. Well worth listening to as i think it puts many (current crazy issues) moving parts into (scary) context. 

https://ttmygh.podbean.com/

(its the ed chancellor, grant williams, episode 7 one)

 

 

DB, i admit that i didn't really appreciate the inflation strategy that you mention above when i first begun visiting here. But i am now a convert, and personally I find it helps to keep that 2030 marker-post (finishing-post?; see end-game podcast!) in mind when investing - it helps keep me fretting about the intervening noise of the market up-downs. To help stay focused, i find it useful to understand, or at least guestimate, the possible risk/reward of holding long term.

This brings me (eventually!!) to my question and would be very grateful if you could help answer this for me. You have mentioned before that silver could 10x/oil could 5x etc (depending on personal buy/sell price of course). I understand the maths element i think, but does this translate into - very approx. - investment gain comparisons? i.e. Would those figures allow me to make very crude comparisons between say a possible oil 5x, which equates to a 400% gain and the 69% cycle inflation you mention above? It would of course be a fantastic gain, but i can't help thinking there are other elements to consider; to be clear i am just looking for a 'back of envelope' type calculation.

[Bricormortis]

https://uk.reuters.com/article/global-oil/update-4-oil-jumps-above-41-as-storm-hits-u-s-output-inventories-drop-idUKL4N2GD15F

Oil inventories decline contrary to analyst expectations...also hurricane effect atm.

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I can see Wylfa from my window.

I'm not convinced it really is scrapped. It could just be some Tory cronies who want the governbankment money instead of Hitachi.

 

...so long as Matt Hancock doesn't turn up to do the site survey!

 

[Gin]

On 19/08/2020 at 14:07, wherebee said:

That figure is bollock.  Think about it.  In the UK alone there are probably over 5 million people with more than a million in property.  

Inflation is going down....today that is...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54173658

[JMD]

45 minutes ago, Harley said:

But these are just two old boomer white men.  What could they possibly offer us as we dance the dance, following the Pied Piper to Nirvana!

Harley, i posted above about a Grant Williams End-Game podcast, where that same old boomer talks to yet another stale-male-pale boomer. So of course nothing to see - or listen to - here; No knowledge, experience, or dare i say wisdom to learn from...!!!

This is the one.. https://ttmygh.podbean.com/

The thing is that the discussion with Ed Chancellor is quiet light and jokey until the last 30 minutes or so. Ed doesn't take himself (or the investment world) too seriously, but then toward the end his thoughts about the future turn really quiet stark. He also mentions some other interesting source material that i will endeavour to track down. Anyway i mention it because i think Ed's thinking chimes very much with your posts, particularly in the 2nd half of the interview. I'd be interested in your thoughts after listening.

  

   

[reformed nice guy]

28 minutes ago, Gin said:

Inflation is going down....today that is...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54173658

One thing that I can never understand about inflation calculations is the imputed rent part. It seems like an economic indicator that is a leveraged bet on housing!

I cant remember the exact number, but lets say 10% of GDP is imputed rent (imaginary payments that people that own a house without a mortgage make to themselves aka economic wankery).

If house prices fell even slightly then GDP would fall, even though there is no difference in national output.

Madness!

[Majorpain]

32 minutes ago, JMD said:

DB, i admit that i didn't really appreciate the inflation strategy that you mention above when i first begun visiting here. But i am now a convert, and personally I find it helps to keep that 2030 marker-post (finishing-post?; see end-game podcast!) in mind when investing - it helps keep me fretting about the intervening noise of the market up-downs. To help stay focused, i find it useful to understand, or at least guestimate, the possible risk/reward of holding long term.

That's the critical bit IMO, i spent many hours of research on potential investments, and the best way to value them in the circumstances, towards the back end of last year to the extant that i've made 3-4 trades so far this year whilst being nicely in profit.  That said, its one thing knowing whats likely to happen, its useless info if your unable to take advantage of it!  Lots of practice on timing and research is the only way, things (unfortunately) don't fall into your lap with zero effort.

There is still plenty of time and money on the table to be made, little bit more research on my shortlist and ill start to make my first oil investments this week.

[dgul]

8 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

One thing that I can never understand about inflation calculations is the imputed rent part. It seems like an economic indicator that is a leveraged bet on housing!

I cant remember the exact number, but lets say 10% of GDP is imputed rent (imaginary payments that people that own a house without a mortgage make to themselves aka economic wankery).

If house prices fell even slightly then GDP would fall, even though there is no difference in national output.

Madness!

If house prices fell then they'd change the formula so that GDP didn't follow.

[Castlevania]

45 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

One thing that I can never understand about inflation calculations is the imputed rent part. It seems like an economic indicator that is a leveraged bet on housing!

I cant remember the exact number, but lets say 10% of GDP is imputed rent (imaginary payments that people that own a house without a mortgage make to themselves aka economic wankery).

If house prices fell even slightly then GDP would fall, even though there is no difference in national output.

Madness!

It’s imputed rent. So house prices falling doesn’t directly impact GDP. Rents falling on the other hand does. Any guesses as to why Rishi Sunak banged up Housing Benefit rates in March?

[sancho panza]

17 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Fun chart from a book in the chapter about why you should ignore the news 

One of the best charts I've seen on here in sometime.And possibly one of the reasons why following a marco roadmap makes more sense than trying to steer a safe course throuhg the hysteria the MSM classes as news these days.

 

6 hours ago, Castlevania said:

It’s a strange market. Half my stocks are below where they were at the start of the year. A lot of my stocks are hovering +/- 10% of where they were in March when the market threw up (Vodafone, BT and Telefonica are lower for example, RDSB and BP are up 10% if you got in at the low). Then there are those stocks that have absolutely flown and dragged overall performance up with them. Petropavlovsk is up 200% YTD; the additional shares I bought in William Hill a day after they bottomed in March are now up 400%. Harmony is up 150% from when I dumped my Centrica and put it in here. My first tranche of Mosaic is up over 100% but at the same time I bought K&S which has gone nowhere.

I do agree that being down 20% in an individual stock is for me at least nothing to be worried about.

A fellow POG holder.I bought some in Nov 2018 at 6 pence ....

More broadly we're a mish mash like you CV,oilies down,Goldies/potash up.Ref the bit in bold I only have a real hard rethink at 50% down.The thesis is the thesis and mine are all roughly pitched around an economic timeframe.

It's been said many times on here by a good few poeple about different shares that have dropped 50% from the off then multi bagged.

4 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Given this is a macro thread, I'm constantly surprised by the amount of discussion around what I would consider "trading" (from a macro perspective).

Like: in the time it's taken just to fill my oil/telco ladders, several on here have traded in *and* back out of the jump in silver miners. I see that as trading a macro turn, as opposed to investing a macro trend, but then I'm *definitely* more tortoise rather than hare.

I think there's a real danger of trying to trade the PM's that you sell and never get back in.I do some portfolio steering,ie sell a few stragglers/winners and redeploy and did so recently.In the end there'll always be a pull back that doesn't come.

4 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Not just me then. Got various jobs I want to get done on the house before the reflation really get going, but trades are just stupid busy. Planning to leave it until spring, see if things have calmed down a bit

Talking to a couple of friends wih small businesses,looks like things will get interesting psot furlough.They're already weighing the cost of the extra money to keep people on now that it's 70% which says a lot in itself.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, reformed nice guy said:

One thing that I can never understand about inflation calculations is the imputed rent part. It seems like an economic indicator that is a leveraged bet on housing!

I cant remember the exact number, but lets say 10% of GDP is imputed rent (imaginary payments that people that own a house without a mortgage make to themselves aka economic wankery).

If house prices fell even slightly then GDP would fall, even though there is no difference in national output.

Madness!

SHaun Ricards has written extensively on this over the years but has a piece on this very matter today

Eating out/Clothes/Air tickets all down but not enough that it's bad savers.Also rents rising which is great for the economy .....exceptt they're not....

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2020/09/16/welcome-news-from-uk-inflation/

Welcome news from UK Inflation

Posted on September 16, 2020

This morning has brought some good news for hard pressed UK consumers and workers from the Office for National Statistics.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 0.2% in August 2020, down from 1.0% in July…….The all items RPI annual rate is 0.5%, down from 1.6% last month.

As you can see there has been quite a fall which will help for example with real wages (which allow for inflation). After yesterday’s figures which showed us we have been seeing wages falls this is helpful. Although it would appear that someone at the BBC is keen to pay more for everything.

Before the latest figures were published, there had been fears that the UK inflation rate might turn negative, giving rise to what is known as deflation.

Economists fear deflation because falling prices lead to lower consumer spending, as shoppers put off big purchases in the expectation that they will get cheaper still.

What is happening?

Here is the official explanation.

“The cost of dining out fell significantly in August thanks to the Eat Out to Help Out scheme and VAT cut, leading to one of the largest falls in the annual inflation rate in recent years,” said ONS deputy national statistician Jonathan Athow.

“For the first time since records began, air fares fell in August as fewer people travelled abroad on holiday. Meanwhile. the usual clothing price rises seen at this time of year, as autumn ranges hit the shops, also failed to materialise.”

As you can see we have a market effect in travel and also a result of a government policy. It looks as though the latter was pretty successful.

Last month, discounts for more than 100 million meals were claimed through the Eat Out to Help Out scheme.

In terms of the inflation data it had this impact.

Falling prices in restaurants and cafes, arising from the Eat Out to Help Out Scheme, resulted in the largest downward contribution (0.44 percentage points) to the change in the CPIH 12-month inflation rate between July and August 2020.

As you can see they are desperate to try to push their CPIH measure. We can deduce from that number that the impact on CPI will be a bit over 0.5% via its exclusion of the fantasy imputed rents in CPIH.

If we switch to the RPI we see this.

Catering Annual rate -7.0%, down from +3.4% last month
Never lower since series began in January 1988.

In fact the catering sector reduced the RPI by 0.52%. There was also another significant factor in its fall.

Fares and other travel costs. Annual rate -8.4%, down from +0.9% last month
Never lower since series began in January 1957.

That sector resulted in a 0.33% fall in the index.

 

Owner Occupied Housing
I

It was hard not to laugh as I read this earlier.

The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 0.5% in August 2020, down from 1.1% in July 2020.

Why? This is because the imputed rents used to keep the number lower have ended up producing a higher number than CPI.This is because they are smoothed are in fact on average from the turn of the year rather than now.

Private rental prices paid by tenants in the UK rose by 1.5% in the 12 months to August 2020, up from 1.4% in the 12 months to July 2020.

Quite a shambles may be building here because Daniel Farey-Jones has been following rent changes in London and here is an example from the last 24 hours.

Bloomsbury 1-bed down 21% to £1,300……….Waterloo 2-bed down 16% to £2,000……..Shoreditch 1-bed down 23% to £1,842.

Here is how this is officially reported.

London private rental prices rose by 1.3% in the 12 months to August 2020.

Whilst Daniel’s figures started as anecdotes he has built up a number of them which suggests there is something going on with rents that is very different to the official data.

Switching to house prices the official series is way behind so here is Acadata on the state of play.

In August, Halifax and Rightmove are showing broadly similar annual rates of price growth of 5.2%
and 4.6% respectively, with Nationwide and e.surv England and Wales reporting lower figures of 3.7%
and 1.5%

Comment

The lower inflation news is welcome but a fair bit of it is temporary as the Eat Out To Help Out scheme is already over. There is a feature in the numbers which is something that has popped up fairly regularly in recent times.

The CPI all goods index annual rate is -0.2%, down from 0.0% last month….The CPI all services index annual rate is 0.6%, down from 2.1% last month.

Goods inflation is lower than services inflation and in this instance went into disinflation.

However I think we are in for a period of price shifts as I note this.

The annual rate for CPI excluding indirect taxes, CPIY, is 1.8%, up from 1.0% last month.

So once the tax cuts end we will see a rally in headline inflation. Some places will need to raise prices but it is also true that others are cutting. For example Battersea Park running track and gym has just cut its monthly membership fee.

 

 

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, dgul said:

If house prices fell then they'd change the formula so that GDP didn't follow.

Which is why they use imputed rents rather than hosue prices.

Until a couple of years ago they sued different rental data to calcualte imputed rents and the rental equivalnece figure used in the calcualtion of CPIH according to Shaun Richards.One had the effect of bumping higher and the other lower.Guess which was which?

Apparently now they use the same data for both.

Edit to add-I find it sad that I know that.

[Transistor Man]

3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I can see Wylfa from my window.

I'm not convinced it really is scrapped. It could just be some Tory cronies who want the governbankment money instead of Hitachi.

 

Cemaes? Nice today, I’m sure.

No third bridge either.

It will be interesting to see what happens. 

I read that the cost of Hinkley Point C would have been halved (or more) if the UKGOV had borrowed the money, instead of EDF.

Instead, HPC is going to end up being “the world’s most expensive power plant”.

[Castlevania]

27 minutes ago, Transistor Man said:

Cemaes? Nice today, I’m sure.

No third bridge either.

It will be interesting to see what happens. 

I read that the cost of Hinkley Point C would have been halved (or more) if the UKGOV had borrowed the money, instead of EDF.

Instead, HPC is going to end up being “the world’s most expensive power plant”.

 

[Harley]

Hi @Bus Stop Boxer, just to say my comments weren't referring to yours, except I feel the pain, and not just the oillies.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, JMD said:

Harley, i posted above about a Grant Williams End-Game podcast, where that same old boomer talks to yet another stale-male-pale boomer. So of course nothing to see - or listen to - here; No knowledge, experience, or dare i say wisdom to learn from...!!!

This is the one.. https://ttmygh.podbean.com/

The thing is that the discussion with Ed Chancellor is quiet light and jokey until the last 30 minutes or so. Ed doesn't take himself (or the investment world) too seriously, but then toward the end his thoughts about the future turn really quiet stark. He also mentions some other interesting source material that i will endeavour to track down. Anyway i mention it because i think Ed's thinking chimes very much with your posts, particularly in the 2nd half of the interview. I'd be interested in your thoughts after listening.

  

   

Yep, top stuff.  I'm on doors today while working through podcasts and will defo do this one next (I'm subscribed).  The End Game series is excellent.  Sounds like I should brace myself, although I mentioned another one a while back that was also dark.  I'll see if I have a comment but suffice to say I hope we here appreciate such macro financial optimisation at such a turning is only part of the big picture.  The interference to date has been somewhat benign or indirect and this (with the Budget, etc) may be about to change.  We need to be careful any prudence, foresight, hard labour, success, etc is not stolen by others less deserving.  These are dangerous times, and not just in the macro sense.  A canary for me is the number of macro guys now sunning themselves physically outside the cage.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Gin said:

Inflation is going down....today that is...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54173658

Just listened to a George Gammon podcast (gotta love the guy!) where they discussed inflation and said how it has not really gone up overall just on things more noticeable like food.  Very much the Fed line with talk about cheaper and better TVs, etc thanks to offshoring.  Only stuff that can't be offshored may have gone up (e.g health).  Trouble is for frugal me, that's the sort of stuff which makes up the bulk of my expenditure.  So no, for me inflation is high and it's all BS.

[MvR]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I also cant understand how people can be down on portfolios here 

It's amazing how many other factors, besides stock picking and market expectations, affect our performance.

There are the exact entry and exit prices of course, which makes a small difference, but far more significantly there's position sizing, which may be driven by our biases for and against certain stocks.

There's also account size. Small accounts can't necessarily take advantage of laddered entries for example.

Then there's the emotional side. Fear of missing out or fear of losses. How meaningful are losses, and how long can we ride them? When do we feel the urge to lock in profits?

Then there's the urge to optimise depending on short term market moves, or make emotional trades when faced with market volatility.

Then there's the question of how much faith each of us place on your analysis, which affects position sizing, how early we take profits etc.  

Case in point, it's been educational for me managing different accounts for friends and family, as well as my own. 

For example, I had my own ISA, and also managed a friend's ISA, of similar size, through the same period. Since trading my friend's ISA meant phoning her up, doing a screen share and instructing her what to buy and sell, I was far less active in her account than mine.  The end result - hers was up almost 50% over the period, and mine was up barely 20% during the same period. My trader's mentality meant I tinkered too much in mine.

On the other hand I've also recently started trading options for various friends and family though my Interactive Brokers Advisors account. I have total control, and trade actively across all the accounts.  In this case, my friends' accounts ( as well as one of mine they're mirroring the trades from ) are up just over 3% since the end of July, whilst my own main income generating account is up nearly 6% over the same period.

It's not that I take more care in my account, or prioritise my own trades when things happen.  Quite the opposite in fact. I only look at my account once I've done what I need to do in theirs.  I even have my income account set as the "default" account, so if I accidentally fuck up and forget to select the correct account/strategy group to direct the trade to ( rare, thankfully), it happens to me, not them.

The only difference in this case is risk tolerance. I'm comfortable with bigger drawdowns in my account since I know how quickly my system recovers and breaks new highs, but I'm deliberately trading more conservatively in their accounts so as not to make them nervous. I'll only increase the risk in their accounts once I've built up a larger profit buffer.

There's actually an experiment you can do with a group of friends to illustrate how position sizing and risk tolerance affects results. The idea is everyone starts with a notional £10,000 and bets whatever they want on a virtual coin toss with a 1:1 risk reward.. i.e. they might bet £100, and end up either £100 up, or £100 down. The interesting thing is, the "coin" is actually a computer generated result that is deliberately weighted so that it comes up heads 60% of the time. The players are told this before the game starts. The aim is to make as much money as possible.

You'd think, under these circumstances, that everyone would at least make money, but in reality this rarely happens. Some make more, some make less, and a good proportion lose money or wipe out completely within a relatively small number of tosses.  This is partly because they aren't betting the optimal amount based on the odds, or they bet more when they've taken a loss in an attempt to "win back" their losses.. and then go on to take an even larger loss.

Surprisingly, some will bet on tails sometimes, even though the know the odds are against them.. just because they've had a run of heads and they think their "luck" will change. People are irrational, and rarely do the optimal thing, even when they know what the optimal thing is.

[janch]

15 hours ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

I'm getting rinsed. Bought in early May. Went away. Was £2k up across the piece, briefly. No No this is long term i said...

Currently down.... actually i daren't look. Prob at least £2-3k on £10k in.

 

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I dont actually think this is the right thread for people who worry about being down 10%/20% etc on individual stocks.I also cant understand how people can be down on portfolios here when silver miners trebled,as did most gold miners on here.Im only down 4% on BP after divis,12% on Shell 8% on Repsol etc,nothing.There are many stocks that have gone up over 100%.Mosaic nearly 200% for instance,DRAX 100%+,Playtech +200%,William Hill +200%,look at harmony Gold up 300%.Markets arent linear and sectors will run in their own times.

I think we can all probably see in hindsight what we've done wrong!  Quite a few on here have only been in the stock market for a couple of years (or less) and it's a steep learning curve even when we have an experienced "guru" pointing the way.

My main reason for not doing better is selling the winners too early.  I had POG/SIB/AAU/SLP all of which did nothing for ages and then when they did rally I sold when I should have kept them.  (Let the winners run).  One of them SLP did well last year and I held on only to see a 100% gain dwindle to nothing so I didn't want that to happen again. Now of course it's doing well!

One reason I sold these miners was so I had a bit of profit to make up for the rest seemingly doing nothing. They are the reflation/income shares which are held for the long term.

I think it's good to keep saying like a mantra: (a)you want the price lower so you can buy more and also (b) reminding us it's total return ie including divis which counts.  It's taken me quite a long time to get that into my head.

[janch]

12 minutes ago, MvR said:

It's amazing how many other factors, besides stock picking and market expectations, affect our performance.

There are the exact entry and exit prices of course, which makes a small difference of course, but far more significantly there's position sizing, which may be driven by our biases for and against certain stocks.

There's also account size. Small accounts can't necessarily take advantage of laddered entries for example.

Then there's the emotional side. Fear of missing out or fear of losses. How meaningful are losses, and how long can we ride them? When do we feel the urge to lock in profits?

Many thanks for this.  Your explanation and experience shows why some of us are doing less well than others. 

The small account size makes a big difference too mainly because of the disproportionate effect of fees as well as the laddering ability.

[Hardhat]

I got this info today on GDGB and GJGB, (GBP denominated GDX / GDXJ), anyone know if this makes a difference to anything?

 

Vaneck Vectors UCITS ETFs PLC has announced some planned changes to the structure of the shares you hold.

Under the proposed terms, Vaneck Vectors UCITS ETFs PLC intends to convert its Irish Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) from being held in the UK CREST system into an International Central Securities Depository (ICSD) model.

Under the terms of the event, your existing ETFs will be replaced by new CREST Depository Interests (CDIs) on or around 12 October 2020.
 

[sancho panza]

11 minutes ago, janch said:

 

I think we can all probably see in hindsight what we've done wrong!  Quite a few on here have only been in the stock market for a couple of years (or less) and it's a steep learning curve even when we have an experienced "guru" pointing the way.

My main reason for not doing better is selling the winners too early.  I had POG/SIB/AAU/SLP all of which did nothing for ages and then when they did rally I sold when I should have kept them.  (Let the winners run).  One of them SLP did well last year and I held on only to see a 100% gain dwindle to nothing so I didn't want that to happen again. Now of course it's doing well!

One reason I sold these miners was so I had a bit of profit to make up for the rest seemingly doing nothing. They are the reflation/income shares which are held for the long term.

I think it's good to keep saying like a mantra: (a)you want the price lower so you can buy more and also (b) reminding us it's total return ie including divis which counts.  It's taken me quite a long time to get that into my head.

One trick is to take out your stake at the doubling point and you're effectively 'in for free'.I did that with Harmony but then sold all our GFI a few weeks back as they were near enough to my price target at $13

For those who might be feeling some pain at the moment,I'm going to post a few charts from the Mar 2000-Oct 2002 bear when NDX dropped 70% S&P 50%

I can't tell anyone which thesis will be right but people can follow the logic and decide for tehmselves.Ref 20%/30% pull backs ,there were 3 in BLT before the end of the 2000 bear market.

My current working thesis like @DurhamBorn @Cattle Prod and a good few others is that the oilies are at a long term turning point

Decl-we've got a full tank.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Just listened to a George Gammon podcast (gotta love the guy!) where they discussed inflation and said how it has not really gone up overall just on things more noticeable like food.  Very much the Fed line with talk about cheaper and better TVs, etc thanks to offshoring.  Only stuff that can't be offshored may have gone up (e.g health).  Trouble is for frugal me, that's the sort of stuff which makes up the bulk of my expenditure.  So no, for me inflation is high and it's all BS.

One of the many big issues I have with the inflation data is that it's one size fits all ie lower income demogrpahics-bottom 20% are deemed to have the same cost base in the top 20% when quite patently,that is jsut not the case.

Lower income deciles spend a huge amount of their income on rent, food and fuel.Upper deciles don't.

And then you get the phrases like 'Core CPI' which excludes everything that is actually core to life ie food and fuel.

When you look at the societal inequity that will likely beget serious social upheavel,a lot of it is based on the price of food/fuel and the fact that the political class have glossed over the impact of thsoe price rises on lower income groups.

Rant over H.George gammon is great tho.

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

One of the many big issues I have with the inflation data is that it's one size fits all ie lower income demogrpahics-bottom 20% are deemed to have the same cost base in the top 205 when quite patently,that is jsut not the case.

Lower income deciles spend a huge amount of their income on rent, food and fuel.Upper deciles don't.

And then you get the phrases like 'Core CPI' which excludes everything that is actually core to life ie food and fuel.

When you look at the societal inequity that will likely beget serious social upheavel,a lot of it is based on the price of food/fuel and the fact that the political class have glossed over the impact of thsoe price rises on lower income groups.

Rant over H.George gammon is great tho.

I worked out a guys money for him,(renting) and what he could save a year only came to 6 weeks wages.The odd lay off in between and he could never get anywhere.The entire system is stacked up for people on generous pensions and/or welfare.The state is crowding out everyone else.

[TNS]

I'm balls deep in oil in the hope something comes of it.

Life is about risk after all 🤣