Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[geordie_lurch]

I think this is a good summary of where all the current QE and stimulus money is leading which might help those here who haven't read as much as some on all this

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/the-destructive-force-and-failure-of-qe

[Barnsey]

Can't help thinking we have one final leg down when I see things like this, maybe I'm just a chronic contrarian.

 

[Loki]

10 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Can't help thinking we have one final leg down when I see things like this, maybe I'm just a chronic contrarian.

 

It's never a straight line and as durhamborn says the market likes to hurt as many as possible so you could well be right

[AWW]

I wonder if most of those surveyed 92% think that inflation will move from 0.5% to 1 or 2%. It's hard to draw any conclusions when the question is binary.

[Harley]

A detailed observation for anyone in the financial weeds..... 

I was looking at the cash flow statements for XXXX.  One source shows their "Cash From Operating Activities" as XXX c.8B which suggests this covers their dividend of XXX c.6B.  But when I look elsewhere the "Cash From Operating Activities" is only XXX c.4B which means it does not (on its own) cover dividends. 

Trawling through the accounts suggests this is because the source's figure has not (whereas the XXX accounts have) been reduced for the share of the results of associates, or joint ventures, etc or some such mix (viz accounting for associates and joint ventures).  Similar for other years. 

I'm not suggesting the source is in error (no clue) but this is important if you value the ability of a company to pay their dividends out of organic operating cash flows?  Looks like I should treat the source financial data (and others?) with caution in this area?  TBF, I often have a job reconciling a lot of reported data from the various sources. 

I'm not recommending this (now in fairness anonymised!) company either way but highlight it (or rather some reported data on it) as an example of taking care with some of the reported data out there.  To be clear, the XXX accounts (which seem very well presented) used the lower figure and clearly showed the adjustments. 

It also highlights the care to take with associates and joint ventures and their associated accounting treatment.

OK, back to bennies and bitcoin......

[supernaut]

Had a look this morning at my portfolio with a view to taking some profits. Didnt take any action.

Mostly in the sectors talked about here. Oil. Telecoms. Gambling tobacco etc. 

William hill and entain(gvc) up over 200% each look the obvious ones but dont have much of my own money invested in them ( about 1k each ) but worth a lot more now. 

BP and shell although up very nicely dont look that high when compared to previous highs and of course the divis. 

Tobacco down slightly but the divis. 

Kind of feel stuck .like I would be tinkering around the edges just to be doing something.

Very close to break even on that share not mentioned too.

I reiterate I am fairly new at this so in an unfamiliar position.

 

 

 

[Harley]

10 minutes ago, supernaut said:

Had a look this morning at my portfolio with a view to taking some profits. Didnt take any action.

Mostly in the sectors talked about here. Oil. Telecoms. Gambling tobacco etc. 

William hill and entain(gvc) up over 200% each look the obvious ones but dont have much of my own money invested in them ( about 1k each ) but worth a lot more now. 

BP and shell although up very nicely dont look that high when compared to previous highs and of course the divis. 

Tobacco down slightly but the divis. 

Kind of feel stuck .like I would be tinkering around the edges just to be doing something.

Very close to break even on that share not mentioned too.

I reiterate I am fairly new at this so in an unfamiliar position.

Metoo!  I was actually thinking about adding to select (IMO macro favourable) positions at the expense of the ones that have done well but are in not so favourable sectors.  As a rule, I don't like to see price action on investments like Hill's regardless of reason.  Many of the macro favourable ones look like they have further to go so I'm tempted to break my rules and add some more.  Maybe I just need to get on with my myriad of other chores instead!  The real issue is that November rush has mucked up calm thinking, etc.  Too much too soon.  Will it pull back or continue albeit maybe at a calmer pace?  I wish it had been a more gentle rise in November as that would have provided a more solid foundation.  

[AWW]

This is not investment advice, but most retail investors overtrade. If you can't see a reason to do anything, sit on your hands. It's difficult, I know - personally, I find it much harder to sit on a profit than a loss. Discipline is required.

[wherebee]

Got an alert that some of the tax rules in Spain have changed and the gvt is imposing an additional tax on stocks.  As telefonica was just in the green despite everything else in my sector bucket doing well, dividend being toilet in Jan, I don't love it, and additional tax is just another headache re paperwork, I bailed.  Made 5% (edit - just checked, 5 not 2) in 4 months inc commission costs.

I'll just hold the cash now until a chance for some more miners or potash in a BK or miniBK.

[Harley]

....

[Craig]

17 hours ago, Vendetta said:

I learnt this the hard way 20years ago. 
 

Going LONG you have a definite total loss.

Going SHORT your losses are theoretically infinite.

One has to set stop losses going short. 
 

I’d love to short the NASDAQ and TESLA. Tried a couple of times. That collapse is coming soon....

Well this Israeli company claims to have a five minute charging battery ready to go, backed by a number of industry giants. Could turn the electric car market on its head, potentially...

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/19/electric-car-batteries-race-ahead-with-five-minute-charging-times

Also intrigued by their use of germanium as an electrode, although a quick Google search tells me that it's fairly abundant and a by-product of zinc production, so probably not worth investigating further.

[Chewing Grass]

10 minutes ago, Craig said:

Well this Israeli company claims to have a five minute charging battery ready to go, backed by a number of industry giants. Could turn the electric car market on its head, potentially...

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/19/electric-car-batteries-race-ahead-with-five-minute-charging-times

Also intrigued by their use of germanium as an electrode, although a quick Google search tells me that it's fairly abundant and a by-product of zinc production, so probably not worth investigating further.

I'm intrigued as to how you get it from the charger at ~400V and 1MW using unskilled labour and a flex.

[Craig]

8 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

I'm intrigued as to how you get it from the charger at ~400V and 1MW using unskilled labour and a flex.

Need to bring back pump attendants?

[Barnsey]

Might just be noise but this is quite something if it comes to fruition, the tide is turning, what do you do when you've been digging for so long...

 

[Democorruptcy]

34 minutes ago, AWW said:

This is not investment advice, but most retail investors overtrade. If you can't see a reason to do anything, sit on your hands. It's difficult, I know - personally, I find it much harder to sit on a profit than a loss. Discipline is required.

I just don't have this buy and hold in me. When stuff has gone up a years of expected dividends in such a short time, it defeats me. I can ignore a red but the blue figure is real money, sat there on the table. I suppose it's partly circumstance as I have no other income. It's comforting to know that in Jan, the year is already sorted.

[jamtomorrow]

1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

I'm intrigued as to how you get it from the charger at ~400V and 1MW using unskilled labour and a flex.

It's either 5 pairs of these or a 10 year research project to cost-reduce a superconducting cable. Or have the car mate onto the charger via a busbar. Hmmmm, what could possibly go wrong?

[janch]

2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Might just be noise but this is quite something if it comes to fruition, the tide is turning, what do you do when you've been digging for so long...

 

This was covered by Shaun Richards today and does seem to be significant.  I'm not sure about the implications and would welcome some thoughts from @DurhamBorn.  Is it a big deal in the scheme of things and has it been factored into the roadmap?

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/

[AWW]

Paper gold price action doesn't reflect availability of physical. I just got this email from Atkinsons:

[Don Coglione]

44 minutes ago, AWW said:

Paper gold price action doesn't reflect availability of physical. I just got this email from Atkinsons:

Given the level of illiteracy in that email, I would be checking my gold very carefully, when it finally arrives!

[AWW]

Fingers crossed they send me 2,021 coins.

[Sasquatch]

Did you buy them from www.atkinsons.ng?

If yes, expect to receive them in person from a handsome prince riding a camel...

 

[Barnsey]

Fully endorsed by the IMF of course...

How on earth is Sunak going to preach reigning things in when our closest partner will be doing quite the opposite?

Side note, you'll be glad to hear that I'll stop banging on about housing now as had an offer accepted in glorious.......Telford. Bang for buck, got everything we need without the stress of buying into a bubble, good manufacturing/defence/agritech area so should do ok hopefully.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

Given the level of illiteracy in that email, I would be checking my gold very carefully, when it finally arrives!

They will be Brittanyias from northern France.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, janch said:

This was covered by Shaun Richards today and does seem to be significant.  I'm not sure about the implications and would welcome some thoughts from @DurhamBorn.  Is it a big deal in the scheme of things and has it been factored into the roadmap?

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/

They are sending out the message to the market to invest in real assets.They cant hold down rates forever and will be hoping they can get a recovery and inflation that stays below 3% but over 2% for a while,

[Errol]

3 hours ago, AWW said:

Paper gold price action doesn't reflect availability of physical. I just got this email from Atkinsons:

Coininvest and BullionbyPost are also both reporting delays due to demand (and have been for several weeks now).