Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[working woman]

13 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I think we're approaching peak benefits.

Re Peak Benefits

From what I understand, people on benefits were given an extra £20 a week / £80 a month during the Pandemic, presumably for increased heat and lighting costs. Fair enough.

On the news this morning, it was reported that Parliament will be debating whether to extend the £20 a week past the forthcoming end date or continue it indefinately.

I think whilst kids are kept off of school, due to Covid, it should continue, but once they go back, and Spring arrives, it should end. 

It will be interesting to see how they vote.

 

 

[geordie_lurch]

6 minutes ago, Harley said:

Still hard to find plant and machinery stocks.  Even Aldi pulling back on its special buys due to port issues, etc!  Are you saying people are being re-infected 12m after their first infection?

I don't know if it's reinfection or not but was just told it's the same factories my contact uses that have been shutting again in China so they have had to try and shift some production of stuff into Europe and / or Morocco apparently

[Harley]

4 minutes ago, working woman said:

Re Peak Benefits

From what I understand, people on benefits were given an extra £20 a week / £80 a month during the Pandemic, presumably for increased heat and lighting costs. Fair enough.

On the news this morning, it was reported that Parliament will be debating whether to extend the £20 a week past the forthcoming end date or continue it indefinately.

I think whilst kids are kept off of school, due to Covid, it should continue, but once they go back, and Spring arrives, it should end. 

It will be interesting to see how they vote.

They get more while I get less of nothing!

[JMD]

39 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Trampolines have been mentioned on here before I seem to recall.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55702243

DurhamBorn's lags and leads, cross-market forecasts, are all slowly, but surely, beginning to fall into place... just waiting for the final tick-box of a hot-tub explosion and pizza-dough shortages, and then i'm all in!!

[geordie_lurch]

Just now, JMD said:

DurhamBorn's lags and leads, cross-market forecasts, are all slowly, but surely, beginning to fall into place... just waiting for the final tick-box of a hot-tub explosion and pizza-dough shortages, and then i'm all in!!

You have missed that one as 2020 was the busiest year ever for sales of them I think from the lower end inflatable ones all the way up to the ones that have to be craned in.

[AlfredTheLittle]

10 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

You have missed that one as 2020 was the busiest year ever for sales of them I think from the lower end inflatable ones all the way up to the ones that have to be craned in.

Pizza dough shortage has already happened as well - no flour in the shops at all last spring. I'm afraid you're too late and missed your all in moment 😁

[S Brule]

Now why didn't I think of that, it's so obvious now. Just buy stuff when it's going up and sell before it goes back down again. I'm gonna be f'ing rich, lads!!

 

[working woman]

6 minutes ago, Harley said:

They get more while I get less of nothing!

If the vote is for it to continue, now we know why:

@Bobthebuilder has just posted a link that says "Trampolines are going up by 50% due to increase in container costs".

On a serious note, maybe the Govt. know inflation in the basic necessities is on it's way and by continuing the £20 a week payment, they are helping people cope with the forthcoming price rises. 

One of my jobs, retail,  is minimum wage, so I know the plan is to increase minimum wage by 20p an hour in April to £8.91/hr. If I worked 40 hours a week, that is an extra £8 a week. I wonder if in March's Budget, they will increase it further or freeze it to help employers.

 

 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, S Brule said:

Now why didn't I think of that, it's so obvious now. Just buy stuff when it's going up and sell before it goes back down again. I'm gonna be f'ing rich, lads!!

 

 

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Still hard to find plant and machinery stocks.  Even Aldi pulling back on its special buys due to port issues, etc!  Are you saying people are being re-infected 12m after their first infection?

Wouldn't be at all surprised if those Chinese 're-infections' (though not completely sure in what sense you are using the term 're-infected'!?!, we are talking China after all!!). Ok, while on subject of making wild statements who thought the Chinese new year celebrations looked a bit 'blue-screeney' - just joking - but its not like the Chinese don't have form doing this kind of thing is it (Beijing Olympics ceremony).

Closer to home, the science doesn't get any more coherent. I note that our very own ('a real scientist who loves his mother') JTV - Van Tam, says masks may be with us for years to come. Again, not surprised.

 

[Noallegiance]

9 minutes ago, S Brule said:

Now why didn't I think of that, it's so obvious now. Just buy stuff when it's going up and sell before it goes back down again. I'm gonna be f'ing rich, lads!!

 

I want to vom

[JMD]

27 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

You have missed that one as 2020 was the busiest year ever for sales of them I think from the lower end inflatable ones all the way up to the ones that have to be craned in.

Thanks for correcting me geordie_lurch (there is money at stake here after all) - i meant of course 'hot-tub melt-up', not explosion.

[JMD]

35 minutes ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Pizza dough shortage has already happened as well - no flour in the shops at all last spring. I'm afraid you're too late and missed your all in moment 😁

Alfred, if your interested, that was actually a contrived market dip to shake out weak hands - or at least that what those brilliant experts over at 'Ramp Capital' told me!?!

(please see S Brule post above for further details, and of how to sign up. Not investment advise, dyor)

[Sasquatch]

Feeding into the inflation discussions, i've just had an email from Netflix telling me that the costs per month is increasing from £11.99 to £13.99. Near 17% increase. Not that long ago it was £9.99. 

Grab your marketshare, consolidate and then hit your punters with chunky % increases. Some subscribers will fall away but the overall impact likely to be positive. Mobile phone plans, Sky etc will all be doing the same no doubt. Going to get very expensive later this decade. 

 

[AWW]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

They get more while I get less of nothing!

Exactly. £20 a week is an awful lot of extra heating, even on prepay rates. I don't understand why people who don't go to work in the first place would have incurred extra costs due to lockdowns.

[AWW]

11 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Feeding into the inflation discussions, i've just had an email from Netflix telling me that the costs per month is increasing from £11.99 to £13.99. Near 17% increase. Not that long ago it was £9.99. 

On this note, I signed up to Argentinian Netflix. £4 a month for exactly the same content.

[BoSon]

13 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Feeding into the inflation discussions, i've just had an email from Netflix telling me that the costs per month is increasing from £11.99 to £13.99. Near 17% increase. Not that long ago it was £9.99. 

Grab your marketshare, consolidate and then hit your punters with chunky % increases. Some subscribers will fall away but the overall impact likely to be positive. Mobile phone plans, Sky etc will all be doing the same no doubt. Going to get very expensive later this decade. 

 

Yep, NowTV (Sky) no longer have gift cards for sale which used to offer no commitment one time passes for sport at reduced rates than they charge officially via their website. Now football fans can't go to the game they're a captive audience having to fork out top-wack to watch it on TV.

Was tempted to get a day pass for yesterday's 'el classico' Liverpool v Man U but rightly figured it would be a drawless stalemate. Saved a tenner.

Re Netflix, I believe they still have their lowest offering available at £5.99 if not needing or wanting all the add-on stuff like HD/4K, simultaneous viewings across devices.

[working woman]

4 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I want to vom

Why? 

If you have recently bought any stocks discussed here, or plan to over the next year with the goal of holding them for the next 10 years, hoping to sell out at a top, who do you think you will be selling too? 

As the price on the inflation stocks start to really take off, these young people and their friends will notice, and join the bandwagon, hyping them online and helping to fuel bull run.  

Personally, I wish them the best of luck, they have made a start in shares, which a lot of people never do, and have seemingly escaped the rat race at a young age.  I hope they continue their financial education, and diversify to keep what they make. 

[Popuplights]

22 minutes ago, BoSon said:

Yep, NowTV (Sky) no longer have gift cards for sale which used to offer no commitment one time passes for sport at reduced rates than they charge officially via their website. Now football fans can't go to the game they're a captive audience having to fork out top-wack to watch it on TV.

Was tempted to get a day pass for yesterday's 'el classico' Liverpool v Man U but rightly figured it would be a drawless stalemate. Saved a tenner.

Re Netflix, I believe they still have their lowest offering available at £5.99 if not needing or wanting all the add-on stuff like HD/4K, simultaneous viewings across devices.

Yep. Just got a letter from Virgin media. £3.50 a month increase. 

Also this text from Three. I have used their 321 PAYG for years. Not any more!!

[DoINeedOne]

15 hours ago, JMD said:

Just listened to a smarter markets podcast where Erik Townsend was interviewing Mike Green on subject of market reform/transparency. Green during the interview referred to Nassim Taleb as a 'totally unlikeable individual'. Does anyone know why Green dislikes Taleb? Im intrigued because Green is a thoughtful earnest type who wouldn't make such remarks lightly.

 

15 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

Do you follow Taleb on Twitter? 

He’s abrasive. I long respected his ability. But he lost me on masks.

I still have to get around to reading his books but i was following him on Twitter but he just comes across as a bit of a tit on there either arguing with anyone who disagrees with him or just blocking people for even questioning him

 

Ended up unfollowing him, sure i will enjoy the books though

 

 

1 hour ago, S Brule said:

Now why didn't I think of that, it's so obvious now. Just buy stuff when it's going up and sell before it goes back down again. I'm gonna be f'ing rich, lads!!

 

Fucking knew there was a simpler way....

[S Brule]

5 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

Also this text from Three. I have used their 321 PAYG for years. Not any more!!

Same. Also used them for years, quite a steep increase. I'm considering trying 1pMobile, which is 1p/minute, 1p/text and 1p/MB. Drawback is you have to top up £10 every 4 months or you get disconnected, though you can set it up so it does it automatically.

[Errol]

52 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Feeding into the inflation discussions, i've just had an email from Netflix telling me that the costs per month is increasing from £11.99 to £13.99. Near 17% increase. Not that long ago it was £9.99. 

Grab your marketshare, consolidate and then hit your punters with chunky % increases. Some subscribers will fall away but the overall impact likely to be positive. Mobile phone plans, Sky etc will all be doing the same no doubt. Going to get very expensive later this decade. 

 

People will be cancelling Sky. And Netflix. No need for them at all.

[Castlevania]

15 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

Yep. Just got a letter from Virgin media. £3.50 a month increase. 

Also this text from Three. I have used their 321 PAYG for years. Not any more!!

£50 for 1 GB of data?

[geordie_lurch]

56 minutes ago, AWW said:

On this note, I signed up to Argentinian Netflix. £4 a month for exactly the same content.

Yep @Sasquatch I signed up to my current Netflix account from the UK using a VPN into Turkey and via my Starling bank account pay 41.99 TRY (Turkish) per month for the UHD multi screen option which has just cost me £4.21 this month

There's an old post on UK Hot deals here with details of the same method I used but you might have to sign up via Argentina instead now as per @AWW above 

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, AWW said:

Many of those private sector workers have been convinced that they should vote Labour by making them feel guilty. They don't realise how much they're already paying towards the upkeep of people who live similar or better lifestyles, but have no intention of working.

A few years ago, I did NCT classes with Mrs AWW. There was universal love for the NHS, "isn't it great that we don't have to pay hospital fees to have our babies!", lots of Brexit bashing, lots of "we're so lucky to be able to afford these classes".

Stepping outside my usual social circle completely opened my eyes to how naive and facile people can be.

I expereince moments like this with public sector colleagues and friends.Some people are really switched on and get it but some of the others literally just think the NHS's problems will dissappear with more moeny thrown at it.

And that's before we even mention the national debt.There's so few that remember the last inflation in the 90's that they have never known a time when the govt couldn't print it's way out of the mire.

Same with hosue prices only ever go up.

There's a lot of people going to get the shock of their lives financially over the next 2/3 years I reckon.

3 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Yes, for now. To paraphrase Mike Tyson, "everyone thinks that way until they get taxed in the face!"

In the future there will likely be a choice between more tax or fewer benefits. Labour will lose voters whichever they choose.

It's the old @Cattle Prod cold shower for wannabee greenies isn't it?

1955 GE,Lab got 48%,Tories 48.8% and Libs got 2.5% on a 76% turnout.

Those shares have drifted down since to 2019 when Tories got 43.6% and lab 32.1%.Tories would likely have fared worse if farage hadn't stood down in their seats.You're prob looking at 70%.

And those results are in a system that effectively encourages people to vote for the top two parties.

I think you and @DurhamBorn are right and that Lab face the stiffer challenge here.They jsut don't have an option that doesn't lose them votes.