Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[MrXxxx]

18 minutes ago, Harley said:

Interestingly though some of these companies (globally) may have been strengthening technically in the last few weeks.

Good point, for a FTSE example compare NEX against GOG.

[MrXxxx]

7 minutes ago, Option5 said:

You haven't been to Manchester have you? 

Don't usually go overseas...you do need a passport when you go North of Watford don't you?

[Harley]

1 minute ago, MrXxxx said:

Good point, for a FTSE example compare NEX against GOG.

I was referring to the insurance/assurance companies but I see NEX has done relatively well.  I own GOG as a legacy income player but may trade out of it come the time given its financials (interestingly of which is the apparent massive 2020 depreciation charge).

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Vendetta said:

I know it is bad form to quite oneself. However I think my post above from a few days ago found it hard to compete with a picture of a loaf of sourdough I posted (thankfully it was not a pizza).
 

Anyway I’ve got some graphs to back up my prediction.

Basically I can see at most 2 more months of rising stock markets - maybe another 5-10% from where we are now and then a 20-30% correction. 
 

Reversion to the mean:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The timing might be superb if it comes late March and early April..... in terms of tax planning. 
 

The eternal question is “Should ‘one’ sell their holdings?

For me it’s a “No” - as I reckon I’ve picked up nearly all of them at their cyclical lows and they may be insulated from the major fallout

Also I’ve gone for large cap dividend paying  long term stocks in the OPTIMiSM sectors and shielded them in ISA’s so I don’t want to lose the tax break in 10-15 years time. However will the tax break be greater than the potential ‘loss’ in a coming crash? 
 

What are others on here doing? I sold up a good 60% of my portfolio in early October thinking the “TESLA/NASDAQ” bubble was going to ‘pop’ - and bring it all crashing down.
Worked out well as I reallocated more in BP/SHELL and a bitcoin miner. However the stocks I sold have still gone on to do 20-50% more.

As someone said in here a few posts ago:

”all the technical analysis is just ‘noise’...... “ 

And words to the effect of....

He said “my dads SIPP has gone from £600k to £1,600,000k in 10 months..... there’s a crash coming.”

I reckon he is right....

 

I will mostly just take profits, and hope to pick up some cheap stocks after if/when have market crash.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

A heavily reduced cross psot from the sceptics thread(don't wish to offend the long post police).Some data hot fo the press from 15 Jan regarding ICU admissions.Hattip @dnb24

Key points are exploding themyth that there's a lot more younger people going into ICU currently.Also reaffriming that being overweight remains a critical indicator for ICU admission.

Also showing that the increase in numbers going to ICU isn't that high,it's jsut that despite having 10 months to prepare,the NHS hasn't been able to cope with a 10-20% rise in demand.

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/4cd9c693-6657-eb11-912d-00505601089b

 

 

 

 

 

 

Please do keep the Long Covid (oops, you know what I mean!) posts coming. With clear data like this, some of the NHS fanatics out there might start to lose some of their 'religious zeal' for the organisation. I'm not anti NHS btw, in fact health provision and law and order controls are for me the two crucial things that government should provide. Everything else they do is mostly clearing up after their own mistakes, risk mitigation or bribery... I know, self professed libertarian speaking!                                                                                            Btw I think 'your' (sorry can't remember his name) pathology doctor was on the BBC big questions this morning, along with judge Jonathan Sumption, discussing covid. Unfortunately the program had all the usual pushback from the public.

[BearingUp]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think UBI is the only long term answer,but nobody seems interested yet.The present situation means those doing most get least,those doing least get most.Thats not sustainable.I actually think cutting welfare by around half,but removing all means tested and making it a UNI for everyone would help the bottom end.Tax credits were the main disaster and of course DLA/PIP being handed out for naughty children.

Long, long time lurker here finally being tempted to bite. 

Not about the fundamentals of this thread, which is brilliant, because I've got nothing to add.  Many thanks to you DB, you've made me a lot of money this year and I salute you!

I've got 'naughty chlldren' who both get DLA.  They are adopted.  The youngest was taken away from the neglectful/abusive environment at just 6 weeks old.  Now 12 she is in a SEMH special school. The eldest was 14 months and is now 13 and struggling at the bottom of a mainstream school.  We are very pessimistic about their futures and have very low expectations about what they might 'achieve'.  The DLA helps pay for Riding for the Diasbled and other clubs (as they are usually excluded from most normal clubs/activities) and respite for my wife and I.  I am able to get Carers Allowance which with the DLA enabled me to make the decision to give up on a 25 year career (15 years self employed) to focus more on their needs.

I get where you are coming from with that statement which I guess are the benefits going to kids still with their birth parents who are suffering because of the poor parenting they have received.  But I don't like the word naughty - I've been told too often that my kids are naughty - which they are!!!  The problem is early life trauma in the last trimester in-utero and the first 12 months which sets the brain up to fail, often for the rest of that person's life.  Sadly, the trauma is passed down through the generations with the cycle rarely broken.  I'm hoping we can break the cycle but it's likely to be with our grandchildren than with our children.

The kids need this money because it's not that they won't do things correctly, they can't do it - their maladapted brains wont let them.  But somehow we need to put this money to better use.  I keep thinking about Borris' BBB slogan and instead of Build Back Better think it should be Build Better Brains.  Our prisons are full of people who experienced early life trauma, the NHS creaks under the pressure caused by self soothing addictions to drugs, alcohol and sugar and our economy is nowhere near as productive as it could be.  Investing much more money in the very early months/years could pay big dividends.

[DurhamBorn]

23 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I had similar thoughts when out doing field work in Utah/Arizona. You get desert varnish there, which is ideal for drawing on, and thousands of years old petroglyphs are pretty common. In some places, they cover entire rock walls, and above ladder height, so they might have even built platforms to do it. The bit that got me was that it was probably done for fun, a pre history graffiti. Maybe they even had a Banksy who would pop up overnight? Point is, they had plenty of free time. They reckoned 2 hours would cover hunting and gathering, the rest was free time. North American is pretty rich in game, but so are other places. I think the point about a long work week being a post agricultural invention is a good one. 2 hours a day would suit me fine, I have plenty of interests to keep me very busy. We could probably support our families 2 hours a day if there was no tax, mortgage interest or need to save to beat inflation too. So the government does everything it can to keep us busier than we need to be, even down to the interminable form filling and tail chasing when you have to interact with them. Couldn't have the plebs with all that free time to think, they'd be thrown into the Thames inside a year.

I think that 2 hours a day is right.As you say if you take tax away,interest on housing and savings needs then the cost of living is tiny.Im always amazed at how little i can live on without really trying.The only really big bill i have now is council tax,again a disgusting tax that i would think is around 80% spent on things nobody needs.I managed to hedge that though by sticking with my partner who works for the council and has one of their pensions.Her workmates very rarely turn up to work and have incredible sickness records.

The government and rich have actually done an amazing job of getting people to think they need all the crap they buy.Trapping into big mortgages one of the easy to see areas.Lease cars another,and of course the must have holiday.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out over the cycle,and there will be lots of cross market stuff we are missing and blindsided to at the minute.

 

[DurhamBorn]

@BearingUp i know many families whos children have nothing wrong with them, but get DLA and where the parents even almost convince the kids they have.Most of the time its almost low level abuse from the parents where the state actually encourages them to label their children.Iv seen genuine of course,but i would think its well less than half.I know parents who encourage their children to be a bit out of control so they can claim.As i said its very difficult to reform welfare,due to genuine cases and the media howls.Il be blunt,but, i dont think i should pay for you to choose to adopt,though you will disagree of course and its not for this thread as its opinions,the only part for this thread is how the government deal with a massive structural deficit when the CBs shut up shop.

[BearingUp]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

@BearingUp i know many families whos children have nothing wrong with them, but get DLA and where the parents even almost convince the kids they have.Most of the time its almost low level abuse from the parents where the state actually encourages them to label their children.Iv seen genuine of course,but i would think its well less than half.I know parents who encourage their children to be a bit out of control so they can claim.As i said its very difficult to reform welfare,due to genuine cases and the media howls.Il be blunt,but i dont think i should pay for you to choose to adopt,though you will disagree of course and its not for this thread as its opinions,the only part for this thread is how the government deal with a massive structural deficit when the CBs shut up shop.

I appreciate the bluntness and the questions that raises.  I guess if you don't pay for me to adopt, or foster, you may end up paying more for prisons, the NHS and lower growth.

Anyway, I agree it's not a debate for this thread, but as I'm sure you can tell 'naughty children' is a pet hate of mine.  Best wishes, BU

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

Brilliant post, I think that automation of most work could be as little as 30 years, provided it doesn't all fall over. How resources are distributed when 90% of people are deemed surplus to requirements could lead to some serious misery

I know the point your making. But i don't think the equation is as simple as saying 'serious misery' will necessarily follow. After all, if the value of labour falls, what does that do to the value of capitol? Isn't it transactional? This is why I think crypto and especially blockchain is so crucial for society to get right in coming years, the subject goes further than just money, it encompasses government, freedom, etc.

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Thought provoking post. Employment and currency may be relatively recent developments. Work isn't. Not if you include foraging, hunting, making weapons, cooking and fighting as work. I don't know how prehistoric societies dealt with those who didn't contribute. I suspect they looked after the elderly but I doubt anyone would have been allowed a free ride if they were capable of work of some sort.

If employment largely disappears those that own the means of production are unlikely to be benevolent towards the now  unneeded. At least not beyond the need to pacify whilst they're perceived a threat. Quite likely that 'other' humans will be regarded as an environmental problem.

Yes there is (skeletal) evidence that prehistoric tribes supported the old and crippled tribe members. And the aboriginal people, for example, operate a communal type of society. 

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Hancock said:

If peoples basic necessities are covered by the state, then they'll be breeding like rabbits ... thus creating billions more "other humans"

I don't think that will be a major problem. However many kinds of other social problems will be 'created', or more accurately 'identified'. What I mean is basic necessities will I think be met, but I suspect there will be 'caps' on things like health care, education even. How these resources will be shared then becomes the big dilemma, ie it would have to be per family if rationing was to make any real difference to overall consumption. But there lies the rub, for example we already know how some communities game the benefits system, but a blind eye approach is taken by government so not to rock the boat. However, if future needs are to be met hard policies will be implemented by the authorities, and a 'no nonsense' approach to people's/groups sensibilities enacted. 'Covid cover/fighting a war' mantra will give government ample scope to do all these type of things.

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I had similar thoughts when out doing field work in Utah/Arizona. You get desert varnish there, which is ideal for drawing on, and thousands of years old petroglyphs are pretty common. In some places, they cover entire rock walls, and above ladder height, so they might have even built platforms to do it. The bit that got me was that it was probably done for fun, a pre history graffiti. Maybe they even had a Banksy who would pop up overnight? Point is, they had plenty of free time. They reckoned 2 hours would cover hunting and gathering, the rest was free time. North American is pretty rich in game, but so are other places. I think the point about a long work week being a post agricultural invention is a good one. 2 hours a day would suit me fine, I have plenty of interests to keep me very busy. We could probably support our families 2 hours a day if there was no tax, mortgage interest or need to save to beat inflation too. So the government does everything it can to keep us busier than we need to be, even down to the interminable form filling and tail chasing when you have to interact with them. Couldn't have the plebs with all that free time to think, they'd be thrown into the Thames inside a year.

Yes I've always thought the 'productivity problem' was a false political narrative!! And I referred to Aboriginal society earlier and they survive by conducting big hunting trips then doing mostly nothing for two weeks.

[arrow]

2 hours ago, BearingUp said:

I appreciate the bluntness and the questions that raises.  I guess if you don't pay for me to adopt, or foster, you may end up paying more for prisons, the NHS and lower growth.

Anyway, I agree it's not a debate for this thread, but as I'm sure you can tell 'naughty children' is a pet hate of mine.  Best wishes, BU

It's a very emotional subject.  I feel for your situation, we can argue endlessly about what life was like when we were hunter gatherers, etc, but I don't believe the current society structure is working.

Now, I'm paye unlike many on this site. At work, I see lots of people who work hard and have kids. Their partners work and when one parent goes home, walks in the door the other goes to work. With bills to pay their kids don't go to clubs. They either pay landlords or the mortgage. They don't get a look in at council/housing association.

when I read about riding clubs it made me think back to my childhood. Mine, like many others, was fucking tough.I never went to clubs. My parents could never afford them. Money was for bills and food

Yes your life is tough. But I work with people who hardly see their kids or partners, work long hours to do a shitty job for crap pay. They come back home shattered then look after their kids while their partners go to work.

Their kids are suffering. The kids hardly see their parents and don't have enough money. Think about these kids growing up angry and then think about prisons/nhs etc that you talked about

I worked with a man who started work when he was 16 years old. worked ever since and brought up two kids. Had cancer and other problems. His last day at work when he was 65. I asked him would he change anything in his life if he could start again. He said to me serious that he would never have worked. If he claimed benefits he would have had a better life. Somethings got to change. People are being worked to death. It's not right.

Anyway this is my first and last post on this.

 

[planit]

Update for where we are on Covid with regards to reported numbers.

Although you wouldn't realise it from reading the press, cases peaked 9 days ago and the figures reported today were 30% down on a week ago.

 

I think people would normally expect a 3 week delay from the peak in cases to the peak in deaths but due to the fact we have been vaccinating the vulnerable for over a month now I am expecting the deaths to peak earlier than that.

 

Since the markets are looking for evidence the vaccines are working I feel that predicting when deaths will be undeniably falling is important.

 

Here is a graph where I have plotted the % change in reported figure from the figure 7 days before, I chose this because the figure size depends on the day of the week so you can't compare a Tuesday to a Monday. These figures are plotted as the blue squares on the graph. I have then included 3 different types of trend line. The moving averages are obviously a trailing indicator.

To me it looks like there is potential for the figures to be turning down within a couple of days. It could jump higher but within a week we could be in a situation where the media will have to acknowledge that we have the virus back under control.

If the deaths fall quicker than expected then the markets will take this as evidence the vaccines are working.

 

* As background I feel that things will drop off much quicker than generally expected as you only have to vaccinate about 4m people for it to protect half the people dying (ignored because it comes under the positive/hopeful news category??).

[arrow]

Toyota’s Chief Says Electric Vehicles Are Overhyped
Akio Toyoda says converting entirely to EVs could cost hundreds of billions of dollars and make cars unaffordable for average people

TOKYO— Toyota TM -1.94% Motor Corp.’s leader criticized what he described as excessive hype over electric vehicles, saying advocates failed to consider the carbon emitted by generating electricity and the costs of an EV transition.

Toyota President Akio Toyoda said Japan would run out of electricity in the summer if all cars were running on electric power. The infrastructure needed to support a fleet consisting entirely of EVs would cost Japan between ¥14 trillion and ¥37 trillion, the equivalent of $135 billion to $358 billion, he said.

“When politicians are out there saying, ‘Let’s get rid of all cars using gasoline,’ do they understand this?” Mr. Toyoda said Thursday at a year-end news conference in his capacity as chairman of the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association.

He said if Japan is too hasty in banning gasoline-powered cars, “the current business model of the car industry is going to collapse,” causing the loss of millions of jobs.

Advocates of EVs say they can be charged at night when electricity demand is low and, over time, can grow in tandem with other green technologies such as solar power.

Local news reports in early December said the Japanese government was about to announce a ban on the sale of new gasoline-powered cars starting in 2035, while it would still allow hybrid gas-electric cars. Such a ban would follow the state of California and countries such as the U.K.

But no announcement has come amid industry resistance. Officials at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said they haven’t made a decision on the future of gasoline cars.

EV maker Tesla Inc. passed Toyota this year as the world’s most valuable auto maker by market capitalization.

In a country such as Japan that gets most of its electricity from burning coal and natural gas, EVs don’t help the environment, Mr. Toyoda said. “The more EVs we build, the worse carbon dioxide gets,” he said.

He said he feared government regulations would make cars a “flower on a high summit”—out of reach for the average person.

With models like the Prius, Toyota is a leader in hybrid cars, which combine a gasoline engine with an electric motor and can be refueled at traditional gas stations. It doesn’t sell pure battery EVs for the mass market in the U.S. or Japan, although it does have a model that runs on a hydrogen-powered fuel cell.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/toyotas-chief-says-electric-vehicles-are-overhyped-11608196665
 

[arrow]

As CP has said gas spiking. FT view

"As a brutal cold snap has hit Japan and much of north-east Asia in recent weeks, Japanese utilities have had to scramble to source fuel supplies.

Power prices in Japan have soared to record highs and the government has asked citizens to limit energy consumption by turning off lights and appliances, even while urging them to keep the heating on and the windows open.

Buyers are going to become aware that you may not always be physically able to source a cargo in the spot market regardless of price.

But the biggest pinch point for Japan has been the country’s reliance on liquefied natural gas, a once relatively niche commodity that has grown in global importance over the past decade.

Japan has long been one of the biggest importers of LNG, which is natural gas that has been super-chilled and compressed so it can be delivered by ship. The country lacks pipeline access to gas or its own reserves of a fuel that it needs for heating, electricity generation and manufacturing.

But as the LNG market has grown, Japan has had to increasingly compete with other countries looking to substitute highly polluting coal. Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie estimates LNG has risen from 11 per cent of global gas supplies in 2010 to 15 per cent today (and it forecasts it will reach more than 20 per cent by 2040).

Prices for LNG cargoes in the Asian spot market have soared to record levels this week as the cold snap hit, up almost 20 fold from just a few months ago when the market was seen as oversupplied.

Energy traders have diverted every LNG cargo they can towards the Asian market, with China and South Korea also scrambling to buy. But they have been hamstrung by a number of problems, from a lack of available tankers and delays at the Panama Canal, to outages at various projects.

Goldman Sachs described the situation this week as a gas market that had “shifted from a bearish perfect storm last year to a bullish perfect storm now”.

Some have gone further. Bruce Robertson at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said that the world “may be coming to the end of an era of stable gas prices”.

Energy companies like Royal Dutch Shell and Chevron have bet tens of billions of dollars on LNG investments. Alongside countries like Qatar, Australia, the US and Russia, they will be the immediate beneficiaries, even if the rally is expected to wane once the weather warms up.

But the LNG price spike has raised a number of questions, not least for buyers in Asia and other regions, including Europe and the UK.

While most LNG cargoes still trade on long-term contracts, offering some certainty around supply, that also means the spot market is smaller and less flexible than other commodities in responding to short-term spikes in demand.

In the UK, more than 20 per cent of gas consumed in 2019 was imported as LNG, with traders snapping up cheaply priced cargoes at a time of oversupply.

But when demand for LNG rises in Asia that supply can quickly dry up. Like most European countries, the UK is in a position to boost gas imports from pipelines. However, the LNG spike nevertheless reveals a vulnerability that is not too dissimilar to that faced in Japan and South Korea this week.

This week UK gas prices jumped to the highest in more than two years as LNG prices surged. Power prices have also spiked, with the UK burning more coal to meet electricity demand. The UK is forecast to become more reliant on gas imports in the coming years as North Sea output declines.

Frank Harris at Wood Mackenzie says the LNG price spike would have long-term ramifications for the industry, from boosting the appetite to invest in future projects to making utilities think long and hard about how to source cargoes long-term.

“Buyers are going to become aware that you may not always be physically able to source a cargo in the spot market regardless of price,” Mr Harris says. “The most likely outcome is it shatters some of the complacency that’s crept into the market over the last 12-18 months.”
https://www.ft.com/content/63d5745e-aa0d-4487-bf81-f73e8c3e41a0

[arrow]

So as ESG groups restrict the funding for the oil/gas/mining industries, the big players should be able to dominate the industries creating and strenghthening "moats".

"Investors urge HSBC to stop financing fossil fuels

A coalition of investors is pushing HSBC to reduce its financing of coal assets as the climate-change debate moves further into banking.

A group including the European fund manager Amundi and London-listed hedge fund Man Group, co-ordinated by campaign group ShareAction, aims to table a climate-change resolution ahead of the annual meeting in April.

The group is thought to be urging HSBC to reduce its exposure to fossil fuels, in particular coal, in line with the 2016 Paris agreement, which aims to limit global warming to 1.5C.

The bank has already pledged to become a net-zero carbon emitter by 2050, although HSBC and Barclays are still the top two fossil fuel financiers in Europe, according to campaigners Banking on Climate Change.

The move will put corporate Britain — and the banking sector lenders — on notice that investors are increasingly focused on climate change at a time when the world is reeling from the Covid-19 crisis.

Industries such as mining are struggling with the attention on so-called Scope 3 emissions, which take into account the activities of customers as well as the companies themselves.

HSBC chief executive Noel Quinn told Reuters last October: “Covid has been a wake-up call to us all. We have seen how fragile the global economy is to a major event ... and it brings home the reality of what a major climate event could do.”

Quinn did not set out whether HSBC would cut back on lending to the coal industry. As an Asian-focused bank, it has many customers whose activities are likely to be reliant on coal."

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/investors-urge-hsbc-to-stop-financing-fossil-fuels-ls6mphqjc

[Popuplights]

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

You get desert varnish there, which is ideal for drawing on, and thousands of years old petroglyphs are pretty common. In some places, they cover entire rock walls, and above ladder height, so they might have even built platforms to do it. The bit that got me was that it was probably done for fun, a pre history graffiti.

Excellent subject. My wife , who was / is a a geography teacher insisted we visited theses Petroglyphs near Las Vegas last year. I'm glad I went to see them. 

 

[sancho panza]

On 16/01/2021 at 15:59, DurhamBorn said:

I know lots of people who would never retire on the income il stop work on in a few weeks.They cant live without exensive holidays and having expensive lease cars etc.UBI would only cover the basics,oiling the economy really.I think it would be superb for the economy and society if set at the right level.The key is setting it low enough so that its not a nice existence on that alone,but fantastic for building on top of for jobs,saving,self employed etc.

I think we're approaching peak benefits.The key for me is when inflationstarts to run,UK gov will be facing some tough choices in short order.

You read @AWW posts nd you do think whats the point......more and more will laod onto the system until it can't sustain itself.

AS logn as there's someone buiyng sterling on the exchanges,the govt can keep printing money,but that day of reckoning is coming.Saem for EU and US of A.They've all got used to burgeining deficits and ebts without the IR rises that normally reign them in.

On 16/01/2021 at 16:25, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Whatever happens with UBI a lot of people will really struggle if they have to work for a living.

Absolutely,some people are going to get a shock when the yungest turns 18 or they get restrcit disability claims.

On 16/01/2021 at 17:30, Sasquatch said:

My main worry on the work front, other than it getting more complex as inflation takes hold, is the likelihood that we could have a Labour government next time round and they may look to extract much higher taxes from small businesses*. If that happens, I'm out.

* I would accept some tax rises if the money was spent wisely, but it won't of course..

As a political gambler of many years,UK looks likely in for another coalition.If Farage hadn't stood down for Boris,we'd have a coalition right now.Labour vote is struggling now.Most likely a hard right party will rise and suck up a lot of the Mids/Northern voters that the Tories think love them.

[Sasquatch]

32 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

As a political gambler of many years,UK looks likely in for another coalition.If Farage hadn't stood down for Boris,we'd have a coalition right now.Labour vote is struggling now.Most likely a hard right party will rise and suck up a lot of the Mids/Northern voters that the Tories think love them.

You may well be right but this may actually mean governments in total deadlock and elections every 1 or 2 years. Anything is now possible.

[DurhamBorn]

@sancho panza indeed,and i think Labour are finished in the north.They are hated in a way iv never known.Labour forgot that most of their voter base was actually conservative in a lot of their beliefs.However its also incredible to think,the Tories finally win those Labour seats,then become an absolute disaster of a government.This cycle might actually save decent working people as once the CBs disengage as they will in around a year or so the government will have a £150 billion structural deficit and nobody will lend for less than 3%,then 4%,then 5% etc.

[JMD]

Just listened to a smarter markets podcast where Erik Townsend was interviewing Mike Green on subject of market reform/transparency. Green during the interview referred to Nassim Taleb as a 'totally unlikeable individual'. Does anyone know why Green dislikes Taleb? Im intrigued because Green is a thoughtful earnest type who wouldn't make such remarks lightly.

[wherebee]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

@sancho panza indeed,and i think Labour are finished in the north.They are hated in a way iv never known.Labour forgot that most of their voter base was actually conservative in a lot of their beliefs.However its also incredible to think,the Tories finally win those Labour seats,then become an absolute disaster of a government.This cycle might actually save decent working people as once the CBs disengage as they will in around a year or so the government will have a £150 billion structural deficit and nobody will lend for less than 3%,then 4%,then 5% etc.

I actually think that the north of england will be one of the better places to be if you are of working age in the next 30 years.

The drag of insane house prices in the SE, coupled with the steady loss of high paying jobs in London, will leave a lot of the SE stuck where the new generation cannot afford to live and work (been like this for a while, I know, but I think this will accelerate as the trickle down effect in the SE dries up).

In the north, I could see investment in manufacturing due to re-onshoring being a thing, which when coupled with cheaper housing stock means that you can work and live without insane debt levels.  Go north, young man.

[Transistor Man]

7 minutes ago, JMD said:

Just listened to a smarter markets podcast where Erik Townsend was interviewing Mike Green on subject of market reform/transparency. Green during the interview referred to Nassim Taleb as a 'totally unlikeable individual'. Does anyone know why Green dislikes Taleb? Im intrigued because Green is a thoughtful earnest type who wouldn't make such remarks lightly.

Do you follow Taleb on Twitter? 

He’s abrasive. I long respected his ability. But he lost me on masks.