Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

2 hours ago, S Brule said:

Now why didn't I think of that, it's so obvious now. Just buy stuff when it's going up and sell before it goes back down again. I'm gonna be f'ing rich, lads!!

 

I think I might have seen their parents post similar during the dot.com boom!

[Sasquatch]

12 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Yep @Sasquatch I signed up to my current Netflix account from the UK using a VPN into Turkey and via my Starling bank account pay 41.99 TRY (Turkish) per month for the UHD multi screen option which has just cost me £4.21 this month

There's an old post on UK Hot deals here with details of the same method I used but you might have to sign up via Argentina instead now as per @AWW above 

I wouldn't know where to start with all that. Our netflix subscription is ok for the time being as our two daughters sign in as well from their houses in t'north. Therefore it's still only £4 per household.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Nicolas Turgeon said:

Steven Jon Kaplan's latest update. His latest since November!

https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/2021/01/investing-should-be-like-watching-paint.html

I like how he discloses his current holdings at the end (he's two-thirds in cash at the momet)

He's got balls that lad.

 

He's 9.6%short TSLA at $491 ...currently $826

 

[Democorruptcy]

Just now, sancho panza said:

He's got balls that lad.

 

He's 9.6%short TSLA at $491 ...currently $826

 

Is that why he's raised cash to pay TSLA margin calls?

[sancho panza]

38 minutes ago, Errol said:

People will be cancelling Sky. And Netflix. No need for them at all.

nothing to do with netflix errol

 

and @Bobthebuilder @geordie_lurch

[Harley]

2 hours ago, working woman said:

If the vote is for it to continue, now we know why:

@Bobthebuilder has just posted a link that says "Trampolines are going up by 50% due to increase in container costs".

On a serious note, maybe the Govt. know inflation in the basic necessities is on it's way and by continuing the £20 a week payment, they are helping people cope with the forthcoming price rises. 

One of my jobs, retail,  is minimum wage, so I know the plan is to increase minimum wage by 20p an hour in April to £8.91/hr. If I worked 40 hours a week, that is an extra £8 a week. I wonder if in March's Budget, they will increase it further or freeze it to help employers.

So I'm trying to largely live off savings.  Savings that represent some serious blood, sweat and tears over many decades.  Honest and hard work, living without, no shortcuts.  They not only give me less than nothing but eff me over.  Scummers.

[Democorruptcy]

BT might have to do a price rise if they lose the £600m class action about..... overcharging!

Quote

 

BT is facing a class action lawsuit over claims it failed to compensate elderly customers who were overcharged for landlines for years.

In 2017, Ofcom said people who only had a landline telephone were "getting poor value for money in a market that is not serving them well enough".

As a result, BT reduced the price of its landlines by £7 a month.

But campaigners are unhappy that "loyal customers" have still not been compensated for previous overcharging.

"Ofcom made it very clear that BT had spent years overcharging landline customers, but did not order it to repay the money it made from this," said Justin Le Patourel, founder of consumer group Collective Action on Landlines (CALL) and a telecoms consultant who worked for Ofcom for 13 years.

"We think millions of BT's most loyal landline customers could be entitled to compensation of up to £500 each, and the filing of this claim starts that process."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55699033

 

 

[Harley]

47 minutes ago, Errol said:

People will be cancelling Sky. And Netflix. No need for them at all.

Not those getting the extra £20?

[Democorruptcy]

3 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

He's not levered. I'm not sure what products he uses to short.

Maybe he's going all in then? If he's 335pts down at say 1 unit stake, if he goes short again now at say a 3.5 unit stake. He only needs -100pts from here to be able to exit?

[Starsend]

15 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

@sancho panza indeed,and i think Labour are finished in the north.They are hated in a way iv never known.Labour forgot that most of their voter base was actually conservative in a lot of their beliefs.However its also incredible to think,the Tories finally win those Labour seats,then become an absolute disaster of a government.This cycle might actually save decent working people as once the CBs disengage as they will in around a year or so the government will have a £150 billion structural deficit and nobody will lend for less than 3%,then 4%,then 5% etc.

I'm trying to figure out how this all pans out. If as you suggest the CBs stop printing money to fund government deficits then surely we are going to have the mother of all deflationary depressions. I really can't see how they can raise taxes much further, many people are already dissuaded from working by low wages and very high taxes. So that leaves massive cuts to the welfare state, public services which has surely got to be depression inducing given the size of the cuts required.

If the Government can't print then how do we get out of that? How do they stoke the inflation they want? Or do they put it in the pipeline now? Can't see how they can possibly stuff enough into the pipeline now to counterbalance what's coming if they stop printing given the size of the deficits and the state of the economy.

Alternatively, perhaps they continue printing while inflation continues to rise and they simply fiddle the inflation figures even more than they have been already.

Could severe stagflation be the outcome while the Government tells us inflation is at a steady 2%.

If the CBs do stop printing as you suggest then it's going to be important to figure out what comes next. Personally I'm not convinced Western Governments can ever stop printing now for any length of time without complete collapse but who knows. You sound fairly certain they will stop printing in a year or so but given how irresponsible they've been up to now and the mess they've created how certain can you be?

Be interested in your thoughts on the above. 

 

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

He's not levered. I'm not sure what products he uses to short.

I don't know a lot about shorting. How is it possible to short without a theoretically unlimited downside? I can see that you could have a limit on the trade but otherwise Tesla could potentially double again and his, currently unrealised, losses would spiral.

Shorting Tesla has moved from brave to foolhardy. It operates outside the laws of mathematics.

[Starsend]

2 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I don't know a lot about shorting. How is it possible to short without a theoretically unlimited downside? I can see that you could have a limit on the trade but otherwise Tesla could potentially double again and his, currently unrealised, losses would spiral.

Shorting Tesla has moved from brave to foolhardy. It operates outside the laws of mathematics.

I no longer short anything no matter how overvalued it looks. You can't short when the Government is printing money, the deck is stacked against you.

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, working woman said:

Why? 

If you have recently bought any stocks discussed here, or plan to over the next year with the goal of holding them for the next 10 years, hoping to sell out at a top, who do you think you will be selling too? 

As the price on the inflation stocks start to really take off, these young people and their friends will notice, and join the bandwagon, hyping them online and helping to fuel bull run.  

Personally, I wish them the best of luck, they have made a start in shares, which a lot of people never do, and have seemingly escaped the rat race at a young age.  I hope they continue their financial education, and diversify to keep what they make. 

You have had a different perception to mine.

[Democorruptcy]

23 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Shorting Tesla has moved from brave to foolhardy. It operates outside the laws of mathematics.

Out of this world even? I was reading about Elon Musk's high tech firms SpaceX, Open AI, Neuralink, Tesla, The Boring Company, etc and he reminded me of a film character. Anybody in a hole shorting Tesla should ask for his DNA to be checked.

 

[Talking Monkey]

3 hours ago, Nicolas Turgeon said:

Steven Jon Kaplan's latest update. His latest since November!

https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/2021/01/investing-should-be-like-watching-paint.html

I like how he discloses his current holdings at the end (he's two-thirds in cash at the momet)

Interesting he us out of gold, silver and oil. The only overlap with Hunter seems to be the 80% decline in markets, he thinks over about 2 to 3 years whereas Hunter thinks will be done in 12 months peak to trough.

[JMD]

Does anyone here own GE Renewable Energy? GE itself is full of horrible debt so am not interested in the parent, but i thought i might buy its subsidiary 'renewable energy' if it was a separately traded stock, however appears i'm wrong and it is merely a division of GE - Does anyone perhaps know?

 

(... I know we don't do stock picks so this is not advice, but I'm just creating a watch list of big/small renewables in case of a BK/fire-sale, so if anyone interested i'm also looking into these (warning, haven't yet looked at their financials): Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, NextEra Energy, Sun Power, First Solar, Power House Energy (hydrogen/electricity from waste), Ormat Technologies (US/Israel, renewable energy plants, inc. geothermal))                                                  

[Hancock]

3 hours ago, BoSon said:

Yep, NowTV (Sky) no longer have gift cards for sale which used to offer no commitment one time passes for sport at reduced rates than they charge officially via their website. Now football fans can't go to the game they're a captive audience having to fork out top-wack to watch it on TV.

Was tempted to get a day pass for yesterday's 'el classico' Liverpool v Man U but rightly figured it would be a drawless stalemate. Saved a tenner.

Re Netflix, I believe they still have their lowest offering available at £5.99 if not needing or wanting all the add-on stuff like HD/4K, simultaneous viewings across devices.

Download Bluestacks on your laptop ... sign into a gmail account.

Then download Mobdro, where youll get Sky, BT, BEIN, etc...

If need be cast it to your TV.

Dont sponsor the kneelers.

[BoSon]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

Download Bluestacks on your laptop ... sign into a gmail account.

Then download Mobdro, where youll get Sky, BT, BEIN, etc...

If need be cast it to your TV.

Dont sponsor the kneelers.

I have an android box which came with Mobdro but found the picture quality generally poor with low resolution and highly compressed stream so all blocky and glichy. This is some time ago as I gave up using the device when the umpteenth movie/TV streaming app stopped working and couldn't be bothered faffing around getting another one set up, so maybe things have improved or there's a way to obtain better quality streams via Mobdro beyond the default or is it just luck of the draw with whoever is supply the stream at a given moment?

 

[Hancock]

Just now, BoSon said:

I have an android box which came with Mobdro but found the picture quality generally poor with low resolution and highly compressed stream so all blocky and glichy. This is some time ago as I gave up using the device when the umpteenth movie/TV streaming app stopped working and couldn't be bothered faffing around getting another one set up, so maybe things have improved or there's a way to obtain better quality streams via Mobdro beyond the default or is it just luck of the draw with whoever is supply the stream at a given moment?

 

Yes depends on the stream but you can choose from half a dozen streams for Premier League with the variety of channels showing the matches.

On the whole its close to perfect on my laptop and OK when casting onto a 50inch TV.

Will be watching Steve Bruce reinvent the game of football tonight.

[DurhamBorn]

6 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

This is from Upstream, which is what people in the oil industry read, not oilprice or any of that rubbish. It's an expensive sub, and they don't usually release free articles, but this one was, to my surprise. It'll give you a flavour for it, the 'related news' headlines are interesting...

https://www.upstreamonline.com/energy-transition/abu-dhabi-state-giants-plan-key-hydrogen-alliance-in-uae/2-1-946077?utm_term=upstream

 

So to me, this is significant. Adnoc/Mubadala have unlimited cash: Abu Dhabi has over $1 trillion in the bank. So while Saudi Arabia is messing around with wars, issuing bonds, blowing their sovereign wealth fund and planning vanity projects like Neom, the Emiratis are quietly signing up to ExxonMobil R&D, The Abraham Accords which will bring Israeli tech, and a national blue hydrogen alliance. So they now have the expertise, the money, and plenty of feedstock. Any they will expand internationally, most likely using partners we own.

Really glad to see that CP because one of my main cross market work on gas is that blue,not green hydrogen will be the big winner.Who do you think will gain big,i guess BP is certain.

[DurhamBorn]

De-complex my friends,de-comlex

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-55704936

This is what happens with huge supply chains mostly out of your control.Im really pleased to start seeing this now because its another of the main reasons for a reflation etc.Its incredible really that we saw this coming as well.The whole world seems to have no idea.

 

[JMD]

3 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Yep @Sasquatch I signed up to my current Netflix account from the UK using a VPN into Turkey and via my Starling bank account pay 41.99 TRY (Turkish) per month for the UHD multi screen option which has just cost me £4.21 this month

There's an old post on UK Hot deals here with details of the same method I used but you might have to sign up via Argentina instead now as per @AWW above 

Impressive stuff... now that's what i call arbitrage!?!

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

Interesting he us out of gold, silver and oil. The only overlap with Hunter seems to be the 80% decline in markets, he thinks over about 2 to 3 years whereas Hunter thinks will be done in 12 months peak to trough.

Interesting perspectives between Kaplan and DH, difficult to choose/judge between them.

For a 'middle view' how about this latest Evergreen newsletter below. Apparently they got a big response to their recent letter which advised '...selling...'. So they have clarified their position below. Basically pms, commods, value/inflation type stocks are pretty safe, but most everything else goes down for the count (kinda like what DH says i suppose?).

In Defense of Taking Profits - Evergreen Gavekal

 

[Barnsey]

 

[arrow]

So, it looks like TC Energy's promise to invest billions in renewable energy and use all union labour for Keystone won't be enough for Biden. Will he make US/Canada relations worse by supporting Michigan's Gov Democrat Gretchen Whitmer.She wants to shut down Enbridge's Line 5 and is trying to block Line 3 pipelines. Idiocy. Becoming reliant on middle east imports instead of your ally and neighbour supplying you. Pleasing the crowd instead of putting his country first.

"President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. is expected to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline permit on his first day in office, quickly reversing his predecessor’s approval of a project to move oil from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico, according to a person familiar with Mr. Biden’s plans for his first days in office.

Environmentalists have long targeted the nearly 1,200-mile pipeline as both a contributor to climate change and a physical symbol of the country’s unwillingness to move away from an oil-based economy. Many Republicans, including President Trump, argued the pipeline would create jobs and help local economies.

In late-2015, former President Barack Obama rejected the permit for the project, arguing it would undermine American leadership on the transition to sustainable fuels. Mr. Trump’s administration reversed that decision in early 2017, giving a green light for construction of the project to begin.

Construction has hit other economic and legal roadblocks since then, but environmentalists were pleased when Mr. Biden said during the presidential campaign that he intended to once again cancel the permit.

That is expected to happen on Jan. 20, amid a flurry of other executive actions that Mr. Biden plans to take to demonstrate his determination to reverse Mr. Trump’s legacy. Ending the Keystone project would send just such a signal."

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/18/us/biden-keystone-xl-cancel.html

 

This from Canada media

"WASHINGTON — One of Joe Biden’s first actions once he becomes U.S. president Wednesday will be to slam the door yet again on Canada’s politically fraught Keystone XL pipeline expansion, transition documents suggest.

The documents, seen by The Canadian Press, feature a to-do list for inauguration day that includes signing an executive order to rescind the Keystone XL construction permit granted in 2019 by predecessor Donald Trump.

They also suggest that despite its best efforts, Canada has failed to convince the incoming administration of the virtues of importing fossil-fuel energy from a friendly ally and trading partner with similar climate change goals.

“Roll back Trump enviro actions via EO (including rescind Keystone XL pipeline permit),” the document reads.

Other entries under the “Climate” heading include, “Rejoin the Paris Agreement” and “Announce date for U.S.-hosted Leaders’ Climate Summit.”

Campaign officials promised in May that if elected, Biden would cancel the $8-billion US cross-border project, but neither the timeline nor the extent of Biden’s own commitment to the promise was clear until now.

The controversial, on-again, off-again pipeline expansion, owned by Calgary-based TC Energy, would ferry up to 830,000 additional barrels a day of diluted bitumen from Alberta’s oilsands to refineries along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Government officials quietly refused to rule out the possibility that there might still be time to change the Biden administration’s mind.

Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s ambassador to the U.S., has argued for months that the project is not the same one President Barack Obama rejected in 2015 _ an argument she reiterated in a statement Sunday.

“Not only has the project itself changed significantly since it was first proposed, but Canada’s oilsands production has also changed significantly,” Hillman said.

“Per-barrel oilsands (greenhouse gas) emissions have dropped 31 per cent since 2000, and innovation will continue to drive progress.”

The federal Liberal government has also beefed up its climate plan in an effort to exceed the current target for cutting greenhouse gases by 2030, and to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, she added.

Ever since May, Canadian officials have been advocating for a cross-border discussion on climate and energy that would make room for both building the project and reducing emissions at the same time.

“Keystone XL fits within Canada’s climate plan,” Hillman said, adding that it promises good union jobs in both countries “at a time when our economic recovery is a top priority.”

“Underpinned by a crucial and long-standing trade and security partnership, there is no better partner for the U.S. on climate action than Canada as we work together for green transition.”

Where Ottawa was clinging to hope, however, Alberta appeared to be girding for a fight.

“We renew our call on the incoming administration to show respect for Canada as the United States’ most important trading partner and strategic ally,” Premier Jason Kenney said in a statement.

Cancelling the project would “kill jobs” in both countries, “weaken” cross-border ties and “undermine U.S. national security” by making the country more dependent than ever on oil imports from OPEC countries, he said.

“Should the incoming U.S. administration abrogate the Keystone XL permit, Alberta will work with TC Energy to use all legal avenues available to protect its interest in the project.”

Biden campaign officials did not immediately respond to media queries Sunday.

TC Energy, however, confirmed an ambitious plan to spend $1.7 billion US on a solar, wind and battery-powered operating system for the pipeline to ensure it is zero-emission by 2030, and to rely exclusively on union labour — all of it clearly aimed at winning Biden’s favour.

“Since it was initially proposed more than 10 years ago, the Keystone XL project has evolved with the needs of North America, our communities and the environment,” project president Richard Prior said in a release.

“We are confident that Keystone XL is not only the safest and most reliable method to transport oil to markets, but the initiatives announced today also ensure it will have the lowest environmental impact of an oil pipeline in terms of greenhouse gas emissions.”

Federal Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole echoed Kenney’s concerns, describing the U.S. decision as counter to economic recovery efforts and urging Biden and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to sit down at the earliest opportunity.

“I call on the prime minister to immediately reach out to the incoming U.S. administration to stop this from happening and stand up for working Canadians across Canada,” O’Toole said.

“I also call upon the incoming U.S. administration to meet with our prime minister and affected workers prior to making this decision.”

Some 200 kilometres of pipe have already been installed for the expansion, including across the Canada-U. S. border, and construction has begun on pump stations in Alberta and several U.S. states.

Biden was vice-president in 2015 when Obama initially rejected Keystone XL for fear it would worsen climate change. Trump approved it again in 2019.

The Biden campaign team appeared to slam the door on the expansion in May with an unequivocal statement committing the president-elect to “proudly” sign an order that would “stop it for good.”

But observers and experts alike continued to hold out hope, even after Biden named John Kerry — the climate hawk who as secretary of state recommended that Obama reject the permit — as a special presidential envoy on climate change.

Environmental groups, meanwhile, cheered Biden’s decision and encouraged federal leaders in Canada to follow suit.

“It’s time for Canadian politicians to stop beating this dead horse and get on with building a clean energy future,” said Keith Stewart, Greenpeace Canada’s senior energy strategist.

“The Biden administration offers us a fresh start on addressing the climate crisis with a willing partner, so let’s not blow it by pushing pipelines.”