Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Here's a nice little case study in statistics manipulation (which I am trained to spot, or do):

1. There are no quotes in this article, only the journalists interpretation

2. Headline changes "was almost without parallel" to "unparalleled loss of life. 3rd degree chinese whispers

3. First graph is cases - irrelevant, but sets the bias

4. First deaths graph which shows covid top is not normalised for population growth, so is meaningless.

5, Second graph a zoom in of the first, to hammer it in. Directly compares Covid to WWI. Because soldiers with 60 years ahead of them deliberately killed are the same as someone beyond average life expectancy dying of pnemonia whose weakened body also picked up Covid. Not normalised for population.

6. Editor taps him on the shoulder about the population problem. Shows excess deaths are up to 10.2 per thousand from 8.9 last year. Shut the economy and hide indoors, the plague!! We are now back to death levels last seen in 2003 (think there was a heatwave then, I guess we should have all been locked up then too.

7. Gives the reason for the gap from 2003 to now was medical improvements. That's just made up, metabolic health has gotten far worse in the interim.

8. So a proper population adjusted graph (but your biases are set, right? In work, all the managers just want to know "the number", i.e. how big I think a field is. So rather than make them wait to the end, I put it on the first slide. Once I've spend the next 50 slides justifying it, they are all nodding along like donkeys, as if they thought of it themselves). Problem here is, 'deaths' are not defined. Covid or lockdown deaths? Also, why the trend increase since 2010 or so, obesity?

9. The next trick on this graph is the scale (used to hide all manner of crimes, which is why I asked someone here for it yesterday). Its not an absolute number, but a rates. Its deaths as a % of the previous 5 year average. So if you have a good five years, and something happens like the March pandemic, you get a spike. This is why the graph is spiky, and not very useful. he relates this back to 1940 "My God this is terrible! We are in a once in an 80 year event". No, 1935-1940 were pretty good, until Hitler started bombing England. What an utterly ridiculous comparison to make. The 1951 flu epidemic also had a quiet 5 year period prior, causing the spike.

10. Same goes for the age adjusted graph up next, showing rates relative to the prior 5 years. Not useful. It doesn't look to be normalised by population either. Here he brings in 'without parallel', when even this graph shows spikes over 10% have happened 7 times during this time period, with the current one having by far the best 5 year prior period.

11. Just for the hell of it, he changes the rate calculation to chage in mortality vs the previous year, rather than the 5 year average. Even more statistically stupid. Here, it puts Covid 3rd in the all time (selective) list:

He doesn't mention that 2019 was a year of low mortality (the dry tinder), which is responsible for this. His narrative implies that Covid is worse than Cholera, WWI or WWII.

Then comes a bunch of caveats to cover his arse legally I'm sure, and finished by implying they would have been worse without lockdowns.

Should be illegal, think I'll have a go at him. It's good to see the excess death data being attacked though, as I said before I think this is the real signal in the noise, and if this amateur hour is the best they can come up with, they are running out of ammo.

Superb and informative post.A pleasure to read.I'm absolutely amazed what the MSM are getting away with.The Spainish flu took out people of all ages including a lot of young people.Anything where young people are dying before their time is a tragedy imho.People passing away at 82 having had a good innings is how I'd like my life to end.To try and compare covid to the Spainish flu is an insult to the families of the young people that died.

 

[Popuplights]

1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

YOU know just the day BEFORE the BK!

Not everyone can stay to see the end of the show, and all leave at the same time. 

So long as you tip us off mate...😁

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Liam Fox is having none of the statistical manipulation!! Now it's in the parliamentary record, bloody love it. The tide has turned, this thing will be over soon. I'm looking forward to getting back to focussing on how to make money from this cycle.

 

Makes you wonder where he's been for the last ten months......nice to see at last.

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

@Viceroy really glad you put that on the thread,because its where almost everyone goes wrong and are all simply part of the crowd thinking the evil bankers etc.Once you understand what the Fed/CBs are actually trying to do you can then form a roadmap.They are far from perfect,but left leaning governments (and some right leaning ones) have caused the problems.

It's one of the things that I've really taken from this thread,differentiating between CBers and Govt.It's easy to see them as a function of each otehr.Your earlier post today/yesterday on the matter was quite instructive.

On a seaprate matter,I was reading a Lyn Alden freebie earlier and she was laying out a few themes that weave throughout your thesis re banking sector broken ergo stimulus will come through govt/QE was anti deflationary rather than inflationary/fiscal deficits are inbound/QE+fiscal deficits =inflation.

Well worth reading for anyone who wants an overview.It's like she's been reading the thread :-).

https://www.lynalden.com/money-printing/

Some great charts too.

https://www.lynalden.com/money-printing/

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

This is exactly the sort of cherry picking of data that gives the MSM a bad name.What they're claiming is that the decline in mortality is the third worst year on record.You'll notice that using this measure they're effectively claiming Covid is worse than Spanish Flu.............

In their defence,they do explain their method at the end of the article:

'Well, according to analysis carried out for Sky News by the Continuous Mortality Investigation of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, the deterioration in mortality during 2020 was almost without parallel.

In this case, we're measuring mortality improvements, so anything in negative territory is bad. And the fall in mortality improvements during 2020, compared with the previous year, was the single biggest annual drop since 1929. In fact, if you were to put together a list of the worst years for annual changes in mortality improvements going all the way back to 1842, 2020 would be the third biggest annual fall in mortality improvements, after the Great Freeze of 1895 and the flu pandemic of 1929 (and somewhat worse than 1847, during which there was a severe cholera outbreak, and 1915, the midst of the Great War).'

 

 

The data they're using for all cause mortality also disagrees with the venerable BBC

Sky from the link,claiming worst year since 2003.Maybe Sky includes December?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55631693

The data is only available until November - so the impact of deaths in December have not yet been taken into account - but it shows the death rate at that stage was at its highest in England since 2008.

I already added the rest of the year statistics myself. A friend on group chat tried to show me that BBC article that ONS graphs weren’t correct even going as far as calling me a ‘covid denier’  

You have to hand it to the media they really have done a number on the masses, the champagne socialists are so rabid and practically salivating to jump on anyone who didn’t bang their saucepans frantically and questions the media narrative with actual official statistics. 
 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/totaldeathsin2019and2020sofarintheuk

So over 5 years the average of UK annual deaths is 530,862. In 2020 (the above link is up to 529,928 up to week 46) if you add on the remainder it totals 592,525 up to 1/01/2021. That is an increase of 61,633 deaths in 2020 which is a 10.4% increase over the 5 year average.

To put this in comparison it was nearly at 50k excess deaths in 99/00 and in 14/15 nearly 45k. The poor bastards in the 50/60s, over 60k excess winter deaths were actually the 15 year average with a smaller population. Imagine enduring the WW1, Spanish Flu, WW2 and then popping your cloggs a decade or so later getting flu in your old age. No wonder there was plenty of council housing to go round...

To get a true picture we will have to see over the next few months of the infection and mortality rates when we at the supposed peak.

[sancho panza]

Oilies look like they have some way to go to catch oil up.

[leonardratso]

xoms having a good go though

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

I already added the rest of the year statistics myself. A friend on group chat tried to show me that BBC article that ONS graphs weren’t correct even going as far as calling me a ‘covid denier’  

You have to hand it to the media they really have done a number on the masses, the champagne socialists are so rabid and practically salivating to jump on anyone who didn’t bang their saucepans frantically and questions the media narrative with actual official statistics. 
 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/totaldeathsin2019and2020sofarintheuk

So over 5 years the average of UK annual deaths is 530,862. In 2020 (the above link is up to 529,928 up to week 46) if you add on the remainder it totals 592,525 up to 1/01/2021. That is an increase of 61,633 deaths in 2020 which is a 10.4% increase over the 5 year average.

To put this in comparison it was nearly at 50k excess deaths in 99/00 and in 14/15 nearly 45k. The poor bastards in the 50/60s, over 60k excess winter deaths were actually the 15 year average with a smaller population. Imagine enduring the WW1, Spanish Flu, WW2 and then popping your cloggs a decade or so later getting flu in your old age. No wonder there was plenty of council housing to go round...

To get a true picture we will have to see over the next few months of the infection and mortality rates when we at the supposed peak.

I am almost nostalgic for the days when all we had to worry about was lies, damn lies and statistics (graphs). Today the media editorialise/sentmentalise/moralise their stories, thus casually impuning anyone who dares speak out against their divine scriptures as unprogressive, racist, callous types. Never thought this could happen, but the world around appears more and more to resemble some awful 3rd rate pantomime ('covid is behind you!', that type of thing).

[Viceroy]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

@Viceroy really glad you put that on the thread,because its where almost everyone goes wrong and are all simply part of the crowd thinking the evil bankers etc.Once you understand what the Fed/CBs are actually trying to do you can then form a roadmap.They are far from perfect,but left leaning governments (and some right leaning ones) have caused the problems.

For those interested, the remaining chapters Part III 'The Takeover' + Part IV are helpful to understand how the Fed has morphed.  

 

Part IV describes Armstrong's personal interaction with Warren Buffett's silver manipulation in the 90s.

"..Within the hour, Warren Buffett made a press announcement. He admitted he had purchased $1 billion worth of silver in London. He denied that he was manipulating the market, claiming the silver was a long-term investment. Everyone was shocked that Buffett was suddenly exposed as a commodity trader after all, the next day the Wall Street Journal called me. The writer asked – “How did you know?” I told him it was my job to know! Silver thereafter declined and made new lows going into 1999. So much for the long-term investment..."

 

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/history/americas-economic-history/the-federal-reserve-part-iii-the-takeover/

As World War II approached, politics took control of the Fed. Once again the Fed was ordered to support US government bonds at par. This decree was not lifted until 1951. The Fed remained fairly independent thereafter until the Vietnam War. Politicians viewed its authority to increase the money supply on an elastic basis meant that inflation was their problem, not Congress’. Politicians began to spend whatever they wanted to win election and criticized the Fed if inflation appeared when they had no control over the fiscal spending of Congress.The entire Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates backed by gold pegged permanently to $35 was stupid and became a nightmare. The military establishment that Eisenhower warned about upon leaving office wanted to rule the world..

... the 1970s - Voclker’s battle with inflation set in motion the major factor of inflation – government spending. The Federal Reserve was stripped of any real power to manipulate the economy for they lacked any control over the fiscal spending of Congress. The attempt to raise interest rates to fight inflation, send the national debt soaring and the proportion of interest costs sky-rocketed and eventually reached about 70%.

 

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/history/americas-economic-history/the-federal-reserve-part-iv-the-bankers-strike-bank/

As we look at the Post 1981 Era, what becomes strikingly obvious is that the bankers then do a reverse takeover of government aiming not just at the Federal Reserve, but at the whole enchilada. This is the introduction of Transactional Banking and the derivative markets they have created all post-1981....

..The floating exchange rate system ended the concept that money had to be tangible, freeing it to move according to the worth of the people and their total productive capacity. It was Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand inside government – spend it or lose it. The global economy was changing and taking a giant leap forward in economic reality. This decoupling of money from the concept of a barter system where it had to be some object between two other objects, Japan soared to the second largest economy in the world without old or natural resources. They proved the new era was here – the dawn of money that reflected the capacity of the people to produce distinguished skills and educated society from those that were still primitive. This also had a profound impact upon the commodity industry and its take over of Wall Street that began precisely with the ECM peak of the 51.6 year wave 1981.35...

..Goldman Sachs, the very firm who was the worst example from the Great Depression crash, led the charge against the trend to take over government. They installed Robert Rubin under Bill Clinton as Secretary of the Treasury. Ironically, the very firm that inspired Glass-Steagall seized control of Congress with political donations to get it overturned. This began once again the age of Transactional Banking

[DurhamBorn]

5 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

It's game on, mate. I was only thinking earlier "Jeez institutional money hasn't even got a sniff of this yet, just us reprobrates in our dungeon" when I saw this:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/exxon-explodes-higher-massive-gamma-squeeze

And NEST sold their oilies at the bottom for millions of low paid workers.Maybe we should draft a letter to that woke women in charge asking for her to justify being utterly shit.Then again,its a clear case of how they all use economists now for forward guidance,not macro strategists.In other news i noticed BAT had launched a CBD vape into Manchester for trial before a bigger release.I think BAT will be the world leader in this in time,and once debt gets to 3x sometime this year they will start to make small M&A buys with some free cash.

[Popuplights]

7 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

It's game on, mate. I was only thinking earlier "Jeez institutional money hasn't even got a sniff of this yet, just us reprobrates in our dungeon" when I saw this:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/exxon-explodes-higher-massive-gamma-squeeze

Cheers. I have to make a decision about what to do with my XOM shares after I leave the company in April. These are held in a SIP, but I get them all out tax free on redundancy. 

I had been thinking about selling them. But maybe not now! 🤠

[jamtomorrow]

6 hours ago, JMD said:

I am almost nostalgic for the days when all we had to worry about was lies, damn lies and statistics (graphs). Today the media editorialise/sentmentalise/moralise their stories, thus casually impuning anyone who dares speak out against their divine scriptures as unprogressive, racist, callous types. Never thought this could happen, but the world around appears more and more to resemble some awful 3rd rate pantomime ('covid is behind you!', that type of thing).

The COVID pantomime doesn't bother me or surprise me any more - it's exactly the reaction I'd expect from a population gone soft on 20 years of consumer decadence experiencing the tiniest change in risk of genuine adversity.

People aren't rational on the whole - expectations and attitudes matter, risk perception is everything. Hysterical media have certainly played their part, but as a population we've become *very* inured to our comfortable lifestyles where we obsess about the upholstery on the new car or having a better brand of oven than the neighbours. Any perceived pricking of that bubble will be met with an overreaction.

But it is what is.

And if you're holding out for a "moment of truth" where everyone wakes up and says "wait, look at *those* graphs - what have we done?!!" ... I fear you might be disappointed.

[Jesus Wept]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

And NEST sold their oilies at the bottom for millions of low paid workers.Maybe we should draft a letter to that woke women in charge asking for her to justify being utterly shit.Then again,its a clear case of how they all use economists now for forward guidance,not macro strategists.In other news i noticed BAT had launched a CBD vape into Manchester for trial before a bigger release.I think BAT will be the world leader in this in time,and once debt gets to 3x sometime this year they will start to make small M&A buys with some free cash.

I bought my tobacco’s @DurhamBorn

I have stuck generally to oils and telecoms. I also held MOS, FCX (copper) and a fair amount of Silver and Gold in an etf. Wish I’d held them all but took profits. Mind I used the profits for Argo which did 1600%. However liquidity issues and ISA capacity issues stopped me from keeping the miners and metals. I think I’ll wait for a pullback / mini crash (15%).

Will we ever get that pullback? 

Current holdings (Approximate % share)

BP (Oil) 14%

Shell (Oil) 14%

Enbridge (Canadian oil/Gas pipeline) 12%

Repsol (Oil) 8%

Vodaphone (Telecoms) 10%

SDF (Potash) 10%

Glaxosmithkline (Pharmaceuticals) 8%

IMB (tobacco) 8%

BAT (tobacco) 8%

Argo (U.K. Bitcoin miner) 8%

I reckon  I need a bit more exposure to potash and telecoms and would like to get back into silver and gold. I wish I’d bought some more ‘Big miners’ too and not sold FCX which has done (100% since). My main aim is to go after ‘big solid blue chips’ that are high dividend yielding and my intention is to hold (kids to hold) indefintely for supplemental income and pre pension income.

How could I diverse portfolio? 

Any other ‘less risky’ shares out their for a long term indefinite hold returning 3-4 % above inflation. 
 

I’ve been looking at Utilities and Infrastructure - but I lack the knowledge in this area. Anyone got any knowledge of these sectors? 
 

Still think there is a pullback coming. Hopefully after April so I can take advantage of tax rules.
 

 

 

 

[Harley]

8 hours ago, leonardratso said:

xoms having a good go though

I've avoided on the basis of their 0.86 current ratio and needing to borrow to fund the last dividend(?).  Maybe I'm being too harsh but then there are financially better ones out there.  But what do I know, it's up c.70% from its double bottom on the monthlies and only c.100% back to it's all time high from here.

[Harley]

23 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

Still think there is a pullback coming.

I hope so, to a point.  Things generally did go crazy in November for a lot of stocks and are now at some key resistance, although plenty of fuel left in many MACD tanks.

[geordie_lurch]

12 minutes ago, Harley said:

I've avoided on the basis of their 0.86 current ratio and needing to borrow to fund the last dividend(?).  Maybe I'm being too harsh but then there are financially better ones out there.  But what do I know, it's up c.70% from its double bottom on the monthlies and only c.100% back to it's all time high from here.

I think BP and Shell should do better relatively from here especially if the USA gurus remember them but maybe that's just my personal bias coming through because I'm more heavily weighted in them

[Harley]

Anyone use Heikin Ashi candles?  I've been looking at them to complement normal candles.  They seem to show trends much more clearly, often with a mild doji signalling a change of trend.

[Harley]

8 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

I think BP and Shell should do better relatively from here especially if the USA gurus remember them but maybe that's just my personal bias coming through because I'm more heavily weighted in them

DYOR but last time I looked I personally preferred CVX over XOM and RDSB over BP on the basis of select financials but then I'm not sure one needs to choose.  Then there's Russia and Asia! 

[Harley]

So I elected to subscribe to the TUI rights issue/capital re-organisation on the basis I hadn't much of a clue but assumed existing shareholders would get screwed.

PS:  Don't forget to book your holidays meine Lieblings.  Once they've gone, they've gone!

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

And NEST sold their oilies at the bottom for millions of low paid workers.Maybe we should draft a letter to that woke women in charge asking for her to justify being utterly shit.Then again,its a clear case of how they all use economists now for forward guidance,not macro strategists.In other news i noticed BAT had launched a CBD vape into Manchester for trial before a bigger release.I think BAT will be the world leader in this in time,and once debt gets to 3x sometime this year they will start to make small M&A buys with some free cash.

There's a few mentions of NEST as if it's there to help people. It's just another of these vehicles for cronies to make a lot money. Tata got £600m for an IT contract amid suggestions that the tender wasn't handled properly and closed early. Labour did it just before losing the election and when the contract was going to be queried Rata Tata joined Cameron's board of economic advisors.

Quote

 

Nest has signed a £600 million IT contract with Tata Consultancy Services and confirmed a 10-year deal with State Street for fund administration.

Nest Corporation, the trustee body of the National Employment Savings Trust (Nest) has confirmed a long-term contract for the IT administration of the pension scheme until 30 June 2020.

The Tata contract covers web-based enrolment, record keeping, contribution collection and details of each member’s fund. The competition to provide administrative services to Nest was concluded early, prompting some to question the value of Tata’s bid.

https://citywire.co.uk/new-model-adviser/news/nest-signs-600-million-tata-it-contract/a448964?ref=new-model-adviser-shooting-gallery-list

 

Tata's contract ends 2023 and the tender went out for a replacement at a suggested £1.5bn for 18 years. Palms will be crossed with silver?

Why can't it done by existing governbankment departments?

 

 

[RJT1979]

I reckon the markets peaked a week ago. All the bubbly stocks are now falling or about to fall. 

[sancho panza]

9 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

It's game on, mate. I was only thinking earlier "Jeez institutional money hasn't even got a sniff of this yet, just us reprobrates in our dungeon" when I saw this:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/exxon-explodes-higher-massive-gamma-squeeze

Fascinating article.It's ironic that as kaplan has pulled away from the market,one of his finest evidence based observations come true and that's the run up/sector rotation into oils before the crash.He was writing that in 2019 and I researched and backchecked it.Very accurate imho.

It's interesting what thy're saying about a gamma squeeze.I've posited before that when Brent was last$56,the oilies were way higher.Given IR's are on the floor/going negative,the divi's on XOM etc offer some upside to target.Interesting to see the buy notes coming 9 months after the basement dwellers started buying.

We've got calls running into march and April which chime in with DH BK call so I think we'll sit on them a while yet.I think we're due a pullback to $50 but then XOM poss $70 by April.

 

9 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

There are a few very startling charts I've been playing with I must share, this is one of them. The "catch up trade". 

About Liam Fox, I agree he's playing politics, but I've been waiting for this. Like dogs after the (proverbial) fox, when one gets the scent, the pack will turn. Every one of those sociopaths will want the glory. They're all a teeny tiny Churchill in their own minds, though I'd say Mancock poses thoughfully front of the mirror the most.

This is possibly the most uplifting comment I've read on Covid yet.An astute observation too if I may say.Fox is a former GP,who's probably been waiting his time to break cover-sorry couldn't help it......

Reality is that anyone who can do basic maths can see the UK covid response is an utter disaster.I was reading yesterday about a Mum who's kids has downs syndrome and hasn't been able to go to her normal support groups since the first lockdown.....tragic.......criminal....

Yes ICU capacity is being tested,but that's no reason to hammer the mental health of the kids/lock off the play swings at the park/shut schools.Millions have suffered and in all honesty,I think history will judge the lcokdowns to have made the death rate worse.

Worth noting that there are only 10 Doctors in parliament.

It says a lot that Johnson/Whitty/SAGE are all doubling down on Lockdown.They have to.

7 hours ago, Viceroy said:

..Goldman Sachs, the very firm who was the worst example from the Great Depression crash, led the charge against the trend to take over government. They installed Robert Rubin under Bill Clinton as Secretary of the Treasury. Ironically, the very firm that inspired Glass-Steagall seized control of Congress with political donations to get it overturned. This began once again the age of Transactional Banking

And to think the purpose of Glass Steagall was to make sure another Great Depression never happened.............

I've said before,Armstrong's predictive model isn't great but as an economic historian,I think he's one of the best I've read.

https://www.thebalance.com/glass-steagall-act-definition-purpose-and-repeal-3305850

'Purpose

Glass-Steagall sought to permanently end bank runs and the dangerous bank practices that created them. Congress passed Glass-Steagall to reform a system that allowed the failure of 4,000 banks during the Great Depression. It had debated the bill during 1932.It redirected bank funds from fueling stock speculation to building industrial capacity.

A bank run will put even sound banks out of business. Banks keep just one-tenth of their deposits on hand and lend out the rest. Most of the time, they only need 10% to fill depositors' demand. In a bank run, they must quickly find the cash.'

 

 

[sancho panza]

3 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Interesting, nice and smooth. Brent had a daily doji yesterday, and is due a pullback in my view.

I've jsut edited my previous psot to argue $50 pullback for Brent.Have you got a figure in mind CP?

[Harley]

I see @feed is on message with his avatar!

[Funn3r]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

Anyone use Heikin Ashi candles?  I've been looking at them to complement normal candles.  They seem to show trends much more clearly, often with a mild doji signalling a change of trend.

It was this thread which brought me here from ToS. I thought it was/is the most important information that everyone should know about, whether normie or stock market guru. I struggled to keep up though and this about candles illustrates perfectly why I had to throw in the towel and hang around Q anon instead 

[Harley]

12 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

It was this thread which brought me here from ToS. I thought it was/is the most important information that everyone should know about, whether normie or stock market guru. I struggled to keep up though and this about candles illustrates perfectly why I had to throw in the towel and hang around Q anon instead 

Easy, get a charting package, keep it simple, and look at the pretty pictures!  Less is more!