Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Funn3r]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

It just made me shift nervously in my chair

I misread that and thought eh?

[Loki]

12 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

No,i read Davids thoughts about once every couple of weeks if that.He tweets for the gallery, but would be the first to say let things play out.

Thanks mate, interesting point.  I didn't think macro would be much of a spectator sport but I see what you mean 

[Noallegiance]

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Thanks for that link @feed - it has the following amazing quote in it with my emphasis added...

I think she has pretty much given the game away there... people being able to escape the current excess money printing in Fiat currencies

By omission does this not also mean that gold will not be an escape? And an escape from what? I.e. is it due to be reintroduced to the system rather than frozen out of it as a heretical element?

Central Banks around the world have already placed their bets.

[DurhamBorn]

Like i said blue hydrogen and carbon capture is likely to be the big winner,not green hydrogen.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/01/13/essar-gives-uk-hydrogen-production-750m-boost/

Interesting the company mentioned SNC Lavalin is Canadian and its share price is on its arse.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/s/snc-lavalin-group-inc-npv

 

Maybe one for us to look at 

 

[geordie_lurch]

34 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

By omission does this not also mean that gold will not be an escape? And an escape from what? I.e. is it due to be reintroduced to the system rather than frozen out of it as a heretical element?

Central Banks around the world have already placed their bets.

Personally I think they have all placed their bets (or arranged it in private etc) to do a global joint debt default and / or everyone being forced over to their Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) at whatever rates (haircuts) they say

[Noallegiance]

7 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Personally I think they have all placed their bets (or arranged it in private etc) to do a global joint debt default and / or everyone being forced over to their Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) at whatever rates (haircuts) they say

I read about that somewhere the other day. The conclusion was that, superficially, it 'deals' with the debt problem, but the side effects for all the markets based off debt (so......every market on the planet) would be catastrophic.

We may be approaching zugzwang point.

[geordie_lurch]

2 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I read about that somewhere the other day. The conclusion was that, superficially, it 'deals' with the debt problem, but the side effects for all the markets based off debt (so......every market on the planet) would be catastrophic.

We may be approaching zugzwang point.

I certainly don't think it's a stretch to look at all the Governments around the World who have all upped their printing under this Covid stuff to the truly unimaginable current levels of 'debt' we have today and link this to them only taking such extreme measures if they all knew they will all be defaulting on it in a few months time via some "emergency" measures or extended Bank Holidays

[Noallegiance]

7 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

I certainly don't think it's a stretch to look at all the Governments around the World who have all upped their printing under this Covid stuff to the truly unimaginable current levels of 'debt' we have today and link this to them only taking such extreme measures if they all knew they will all be defaulting on it in a few months time via some "emergency" measures or extended Bank Holidays

The point of the article I read (can't remember where yet) was that wiping government and central bank debt, whilst cleaning their balance sheets nicely, would absolutely fuck fuck fuckedy fuck the world. Fucked. Fuckaroo. Ferkin ferked.

Fecked.

If there's any truth in that, massive inflation would surely be preferred. Only a moderate fucking, then.

[geordie_lurch]

12 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

The point of the article I read (can't remember where yet) was that wiping government and central bank debt, whilst cleaning their balance sheets nicely, would absolutely fuck fuck fuckedy fuck the world. Fucked. Fuckaroo. Ferkin ferked.

Fecked.

If there's any truth in that, massive inflation would surely be preferred. Only a moderate fucking, then.

Lol I guess it depends how fecked the system currently is or has been for months or even years without the public realising it yet and finishing the current system off via the bank run that started back in 2008 This whole Great Reset idea being published and out there alongside Covid just all seems a little too suspicious to me but hopefully I'm joining up dots where there aren't any and as many people as possible (certainly those in thread) get to 'benefit' from the standard high inflation we think is coming within the same monetary system we are all used to

[Chewing Grass]

3 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Lol I guess it depends how fecked the system currently is or has been for months or even years without the public realising it yet and finishing off the bank run that started in 2008 This whole Great Reset idea being published and out there alongside Covid just all seems a little too suspicious to me but hopefully I'm joiningg up dots where there aren't any and as many people as possible (certainly those in thread) get to 'benefit' from the standard high inflation we think is coming within the same monetary system we are all used to

I hate looking at these graphs, I used to remember listening to the monthly B of E base rate meeting on a Wednesday once a month with interest until it never changed.

Bugger me we have had 12 years of it and it seems like yesterday.

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

I read about that somewhere the other day. The conclusion was that, superficially, it 'deals' with the debt problem, but the side effects for all the markets based off debt (so......every market on the planet) would be catastrophic.

We may be approaching zugzwang point.

Wasn't there a member in the other place called Zugzwang? 

 

Maybe if he reappears that's the signal that we're completely fucked. 

[leonardratso]

12 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Wasn't there a member in the other place called Zugzwang? 

 

Maybe if he reappears that's the signal that we're completely fucked. 

ill lol, but wtf, who knows whats gonna happen, already quite a mad year.

[reformed nice guy]

I think that it will be plain old inflation that will fuck everything up. £2 for a loaf of bread within a decade or so, that sort of level

China will be licking their lips

[Democorruptcy]

Trump impeached again. Isn't this going to get some tempers up? Anybody thinking if something kicks off, it might cause a market wobble?

[leonardratso]

4 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Trump impeached again. Isn't this going to get some tempers up? Anybody thinking if something kicks off, it might cause a market wobble?

bitcoin and gold to the mooooooon!

[leonardratso]

hehe, somethings gone wrong on investing.com;

[JMD]

11 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

That's was the first graph which didn't take into account the almost doubling of the population between 1940 and now.

As usual you have to read everything very carefully with the BBC and not take it at face value as read.

Their next graph further down as usual was more appropriate.

On this one they only dare go back 10 years to just scrape a statement, read it carefully.

so roughly speaking there were 20% more deaths per 100,000 people 20 years ago than there were during COVID.

 but they couldn't say that, could they...

Damn lies and statistics, you can prove whatever you want should you desire to.

Thanks for your reply - But cripes it does feel like you are lecturing me about BBC bias!!(?) To be clear those are ONS graphs, that the BBC among many others, happened to publish. Though I accept that I was too lazy to locate them on the actual ONS site and just linked to the first search result Google returned. Btw the specific graph I referenced (not the one you have shown) showed the % jump in deaths (by 5 year rolling periods) so UK population increase is a negligible effect. I was simply seeking opinion on how others here interpret the stark 2020 up-blip in the graph data. 

[Sugarlips]

Biden reportedly wants to more than double the domestic minimum wage from $7.25 to $15..

https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-will-bidens-covid-19-stimulus-plan-look-like-11610543042?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/txwGfIcBsB

[geordie_lurch]

Well this is the Biden stimulus rumour... another 2 trillion

Yields Surge As Stunned Traders Learn Biden To Propose Massive $2 Trillion Stimulus

"...if markets ignored the Schumer report, they sure as hell noticed the CNN report which hit just after 9pmET, which prompted traders to take a double take because apparently Schumer "pressed" Biden so hard to expand the next stimulus round, he literally squashed the president-elect, who is now "expected to unveil a major Covid-19 relief package on Thursday and his advisers have recently told allies in Congress to expect a price tag in the ballpark of $2 trillion," CNN reported citing two people briefed on the deliberations."

[DurhamBorn]

9 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

The point of the article I read (can't remember where yet) was that wiping government and central bank debt, whilst cleaning their balance sheets nicely, would absolutely fuck fuck fuckedy fuck the world. Fucked. Fuckaroo. Ferkin ferked.

Fecked.

If there's any truth in that, massive inflation would surely be preferred. Only a moderate fucking, then.

Every penny and cent of debt is someone elses asset,or in simple terms someone elses saved labour.That last bit is whats so disgusting about money printing.However our system is built around that.The people who call for wiping all the debt etc etc are really calling for taking western economies back to the stone age,starving multi millions of people,and creating the most horrific society you can imagine.

"savings" have gone too high because governments have issued too much debt,and the way that swings back is inflation.The CBs are monetizing deficits locking in 2 generation coupons at 1%.

The CBs are just doing their jobs.Iv said it before,but it was hammered into my head 30 years ago.The CBs dont try to help the rich,they try to stop all the single mothers children in Detroit and Glasgow from starving and allow the economy to slowly increase living standards.Governments have over time made the jobs of CBs harder and harder by giving away more and more free stuff.The CBs are pushing fiscal though and trying to use direct injections because they know if they dont get a reasonable amount of inflation soon there will be huge financial dislocation.

For me the fascinating part comes when they have to disengage and governments suddenly have to deal with difficult choices instead of rolling over to every scrounging demand.

 

[Barnsey]

Things that make you go hmm...

 

[wherebee]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The CBs are just doing their jobs.Iv said it before,but it was hammered into my head 30 years ago.The CBs dont try to help the rich,they try to stop all the single mothers children in Detroit and Glasgow from starving and allow the economy to slowly increase living standards.Governments have over time made the jobs of CBs harder and harder by giving away more and more free stuff.The CBs are pushing fiscal though and trying to use direct injections because they know if they dont get a reasonable amount of inflation soon there will be huge financial dislocation.

I'm not sure what you have been drinking but can I have some please?

Central Banks have done more than anyone in the past 30 years to destroy the middle and working classes, dooming then to poverty.  They have set interest rates and other policies which reward the profilgate and asset rich and fuck in the arse the worker bees.

[Barnsey]

1 minute ago, wherebee said:

I'm not sure what you have been drinking but can I have some please?

Central Banks have done more than anyone in the past 30 years to destroy the middle and working classes, dooming then to poverty.  They have set interest rates and other policies which reward the profilgate and asset rich and fuck in the arse the worker bees.

Bit of both, ultimately markets set rates

[Yadda yadda yadda]

10 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Trump impeached again. Isn't this going to get some tempers up? Anybody thinking if something kicks off, it might cause a market wobble?

Almost like they want a crisis.

 

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Well this is the Biden stimulus rumour... another 2 trillion

Yields Surge As Stunned Traders Learn Biden To Propose Massive $2 Trillion Stimulus

"...if markets ignored the Schumer report, they sure as hell noticed the CNN report which hit just after 9pmET, which prompted traders to take a double take because apparently Schumer "pressed" Biden so hard to expand the next stimulus round, he literally squashed the president-elect, who is now "expected to unveil a major Covid-19 relief package on Thursday and his advisers have recently told allies in Congress to expect a price tag in the ballpark of $2 trillion," CNN reported citing two people briefed on the deliberations."

Tasty, tasty pork. Yum yum yum. Sausages. Stuffing. Gravy. Bacon. Delicious. Slow roast pork shoulder with crackling. A banquet of the finest pork. Some offal might fall from the high table for the peasants to fight over.

[jamtomorrow]

15 minutes ago, wherebee said:

I'm not sure what you have been drinking but can I have some please?

Central Banks have done more than anyone in the past 30 years to destroy the middle and working classes, dooming then to poverty.  They have set interest rates and other policies which reward the profilgate and asset rich and fuck in the arse the worker bees.

The road to hell is paved with the good intentions of monetary communists.