Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Democorruptcy]

2 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Almost like they want a crisis.

It's seems strange they are doing this at such a late stage. They must obviously just want to block him standing next time because they think he would win. Fiddling the next vote already.

[dnb24]

42 minutes ago, wherebee said:

I'm not sure what you have been drinking but can I have some please?

Central Banks have done more than anyone in the past 30 years to destroy the middle and working classes, dooming then to poverty.  They have set interest rates and other policies which reward the profilgate and asset rich and fuck in the arse the worker bees.

I would disagree, the central banks haven’t done this, government has done this and us as the baying public have egged them on. The levers the CBs have to pull are obtuse and set the financial course for a long period of time. Most governments consist of short term careerists politicians with the civil service there to try and balance out change between transitions. The politicians play to the crowd and implement what they think will get them the most votes from the money they have.

As DB states- come the end of this cycle- the politics will have to bend to inflation and the fact the CBs won’t be able to pull as many levers (or maybe no levers)- at that point who is to blame- the CBs? At that point I suppose we may have to at last look at what we’ve created and forget expecting something for nothing.

 

I don’t mean to be confrontational at all- and don’t expect this to be an echo chamber- just expressing what I understand.

[Barnsey]

- British Gas customer losses now flattening out

- Whitbread job losses only 1500, not 6000 as expected, says "furlough scheme enormously helpful" (I'll say it again, my expectation is for the scheme to be extended or modified)

- Norwegian closing down long haul, another 1100 job losses for Gatwick (Crawley must be getting hammered by all this)

[Bricks & Mortar]

29 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Things that make you go hmm...

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

18 minutes ago, wherebee said:

I'm not sure what you have been drinking but can I have some please?

Central Banks have done more than anyone in the past 30 years to destroy the middle and working classes, dooming then to poverty.  They have set interest rates and other policies which reward the profilgate and asset rich and fuck in the arse the worker bees.

That is simply the affect because the money ends up with the rich,that isnt why they do it.Governments have caused more problems.Its not central banks that created a massive welfare system,not them who decide to pay housing benefit,nor allow mass migration etc etc.CBs react to the macro position of the economy.Thats it.The BOE was actually doing a very good job in the UK until Gordon Brown.He did the real damage in the UK.CBs cant control long disinflation cycles caused by opening up China,they simply react.You cant have rates at 5% if inflation is 0.8% outside of tax.

The CBs have done their jobs,but the governments have failed to use their fiscal levers to pull in excess.Governments pushed debt up so people have to work longer to pay for the huge numbers on welfare.

However the CBs will remove QE as soon as inflation gets over around 3%,then governments will be forced to deal with their structural problems.

 

[geordie_lurch]

Regarding Central Banks... I'm not sure any of these around the World, including our own BoE were really set up to help the average people or as DB puts it "help all the single mothers children in Detroit and Glasgow from starving"

I think I'm more inclined to believe the following from here ...

Quote

Why did nations start central banks? To finance the materiel needs of the nation-state in time of war. There is no other answer to this question that is as nearly correct as that answer. To provide a lender of last resort, to smooth out the cycle of boom and bust, to enable liquidity in the face of structural rigidities—all these common rationales popped up, usually ex post facto, as central banks in Europe (and Japan) sprouted from the 17^th to the 20^th centuries, but the real reason, widely understood and empirically valid, is the one already given.

However bringing things up to date today, they are all linked by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) which you can read more about here for a starter with it's "60-member central banks" most of which have publicly state they are looking at creating their own Central Bank Digital Currencies. I don't think it's that much of a stretch to imagine all those in that 'club' agreeing to default and / or move us all over to their fully traceable digital currencies

However if after reading either of those links you think they are really looking out for the poor everday man and woman and not actually their rich friends and secretive shareholders then

[Wheeler]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The people who call for wiping all the debt etc etc are really calling for taking western economies back to the stone age,starving multi millions of people,and creating the most horrific society you can imagine.

I don't think they are looking any further than wiping out the existing debt so they can take on some more. 

Edit: I don't think it will work as they hope though.

[JMD]

36 minutes ago, wherebee said:

I'm not sure what you have been drinking but can I have some please?

Central Banks have done more than anyone in the past 30 years to destroy the middle and working classes, dooming then to poverty.  They have set interest rates and other policies which reward the profilgate and asset rich and fuck in the arse the worker bees.

Wherebee, i agree the effects are as you describe - and I'm no expert - but isn't DurhamBorns point really about the causes and that CB's were given their gig (i.e. for the US, see Jeckyll island) and 'arms-length' (i.e. convenient 'not me guv'... nor of England!) powers by our elected governments. It's similar to the banking 'franchise', granted to the retail banking system, allowing fractional lending, money printing, etc, and where all those powers can similarly be taken back in-house when/if government wants... probably approx. 2028 if this thread is even half accurate.   

 

 

[wherebee]

1 minute ago, JMD said:

Wherebee, i agree the effects are as you describe - and I'm no expert - but isn't DurhamBorns point really about the causes and that CB's were given their gig (i.e. for the US, see Jeckyll island) and 'arms-length' (i.e. convenient 'not me guv'... nor of England!) powers by our elected governments. It's similar to the banking 'franchise', granted to the retail banking system, allowing fractional lending, money printing, etc, and where all those powers can similarly be taken back in-house when/if government wants... probably approx. 2028 if this thread is even half accurate.   

 

 

That's like the policeman who claims that it's the bosses who are at fault for the draconian imposition of covid bullyboy tactics.

Yes, but they could not do it without you.  If CB's actually wanted to do right for the majority, they would, for example, have  criticised cunts like gordon brown with his free money smash.  Or not, as that cunt Canadian did, criticised BREXIT month in month out.

[JMD]

47 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

As DB states- come the end of this cycle- the politics will have to bend to inflation and the fact the CBs won’t be able to pull as many levers (or maybe no levers)- at that point who is to blame- the CBs? At that point I suppose we may have to at last look at what we’ve created and forget expecting something for nothing.

Hmm... that reminds me, I think i'll re-read Mary Shelly's Frankenstein to check out how 'events' turned out...!       

[JMD]

48 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

That is simply the affect because the money ends up with the rich,that isnt why they do it.Governments have caused more problems.Its not central banks that created a massive welfare system,not them who decide to pay housing benefit,nor allow mass migration etc etc.CBs react to the macro position of the economy.Thats it.The BOE was actually doing a very good job in the UK until Gordon Brown.He did the real damage in the UK.CBs cant control long disinflation cycles caused by opening up China,they simply react.You cant have rates at 5% if inflation is 0.8% outside of tax.

The CBs have done their jobs,but the governments have failed to use their fiscal levers to pull in excess.Governments pushed debt up so people have to work longer to pay for the huge numbers on welfare.

However the CBs will remove QE as soon as inflation gets over around 3%,then governments will be forced to deal with their structural problems.

 

DB, if we did eventually see a monetary collapse (or even if we didn't get something so dramatic)... but if say central banks are subsumed into being 'just another' government department, and debt system is completely reformed, governments do their own cryptos, and/or maybe even crypto/blockchain reinvents all kinds of infrastructure such as ownership/financial market trading - would there be any point to having a banking system, retail or commercial?    Its a very big question i know, don't expect a detailed reply, but just wondered if you had begun developing any ideas about this?

[sancho panza]

19 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Frac count is a count of the crews and their machinery who go to a drilled well to frac it, and get production going. It probably correlates to production better than Art Bermans rig count. So far, they are not responding to price like they have in the past. There really is capital constraint, it seems.

Fascinating charts CP.Really does open up the potnetial for an exponential spike before we get the BK imho.And elt's face it there is signifcant historical precedent for that.........Interesting to see the likes of EQNR already back at pre covid levels.CVX/PSX not far off.

What amazes me is that if your thesis is correct re capital drought,Wall St is declining to fund something that they're declining to fund almost guarantees a price rise and supply surge that they'll have to fund.

16 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

We will never know how many of those deaths were OF covid. The ONS counts 'covid mentioned on the death certificate' while PHE count "Deaths of any cause within 28 days of a positive covid test". Therefore both are just WITH covid. The uptick could just largely be the deaths caused by the government response to covid. In the first lockdown people missed surgery, old people might have been left to slip away to free up an hospital bed that was never needed, the backlog for diagnosis that itself has created a backlog for treatment, suicide, heart attacks from lack of exercise and lockdown obesity, etc etc.

Now they might even be making a mess of the vaccine. The CDC don't agree with delaying the 2nd jab.

 

There's a reall effort to misrepresent the data.The use of excess deaths without the historical context of all cause mortality over the previous 20 years is very naughty imho,but obviously being done for a reason.

14 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Like i said blue hydrogen and carbon capture is likely to be the big winner,not green hydrogen.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/01/13/essar-gives-uk-hydrogen-production-750m-boost/

Interesting the company mentioned SNC Lavalin is Canadian and its share price is on its arse.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/s/snc-lavalin-group-inc-npv

 

Maybe one for us to look at 

 

It would be great if we could gather a list of companies that offer substantial hydrogen exposure as a %age of their market cap.Maybe there's an ETF we can pick through.Looking at SNC market cap and their investment in the UK then they'd be one.

Then coma scores and watch for the BK.

I'm starting to hold back trades at the minute on the grounds that we might get them cheaper post BK.Hydrogen looks a great 2030 investment

13 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Lol I guess it depends how fecked the system currently is or has been for months or even years without the public realising it yet and finishing the current system off via the bank run that started back in 2008 This whole Great Reset idea being published and out there alongside Covid just all seems a little too suspicious to me but hopefully I'm joining up dots where there aren't any and as many people as possible (certainly those in thread) get to 'benefit' from the standard high inflation we think is coming within the same monetary system we are all used to

The only problem I have with theories like the GR is that they assume our gubbermint aren't jsut going from monumental f*** up to monumnetla f*** up,which it appears they are.

The one time they gave the British people the opportunity to restrict their ability to monumentally f*** up in the future,the British people bit their arm off and voted for Brexit.

My head is in my hands for kids generation,but we jsut have to do the best we can to keep ourselves and our families protected against the incompetence of our ruling class.

[sancho panza]

10 hours ago, JMD said:

Thanks for your reply - But cripes it does feel like you are lecturing me about BBC bias!!(?) To be clear those are ONS graphs, that the BBC among many others, happened to publish. Though I accept that I was too lazy to locate them on the actual ONS site and just linked to the first search result Google returned. Btw the specific graph I referenced (not the one you have shown) showed the % jump in deaths (by 5 year rolling periods) so UK population increase is a negligible effect. I was simply seeking opinion on how others here interpret the stark 2020 up-blip in the graph data. 

This is the key phrase

'There were close to 697,000 deaths in 2020 - nearly 85,000 more than would be expected based on the average in the previous five years.'

They're using standard deviations from the mean.If you use the previous five years as your context,then the death rate for 2020 is indeed very high.However,that low death rate is in itself a contributory factor of the spike

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

I'm not sure what you have been drinking but can I have some please?

Central Banks have done more than anyone in the past 30 years to destroy the middle and working classes, dooming then to poverty.  They have set interest rates and other policies which reward the profilgate and asset rich and fuck in the arse the worker bees.

The bulk of credit/money creation has been carried out by commercial banks.The abandonment of cash reserve lending and the move onto Basel allowed a largely lightly regulated banking sector to hide all manner of misbehaviour from shareholders/govts/CB's.

Govt's were effectively enabling the addict to raise their tolerance to opiates.

[Barnsey]

 

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, dnb24 said:

I would disagree, the central banks haven’t done this, government has done this and us as the baying public have egged them on. The levers the CBs have to pull are obtuse and set the financial course for a long period of time. Most governments consist of short term careerists politicians with the civil service there to try and balance out change between transitions. The politicians play to the crowd and implement what they think will get them the most votes from the money they have.

As DB states- come the end of this cycle- the politics will have to bend to inflation and the fact the CBs won’t be able to pull as many levers (or maybe no levers)- at that point who is to blame- the CBs? At that point I suppose we may have to at last look at what we’ve created and forget expecting something for nothing.

 

I don’t mean to be confrontational at all- and don’t expect this to be an echo chamber- just expressing what I understand.

In a way you could say that the people voted for this course of action.

[Noallegiance]

16 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

This is the key phrase

'There were close to 697,000 deaths in 2020 - nearly 85,000 more than would be expected based on the average in the previous five years.'

They're using standard deviations from the mean.If you use the previous five years as your context,then the death rate for 2020 is indeed very high.However,that low death rate is in itself a contributory factor of the spike

Thoroughly scientific to compare one year's figure to an average of five, too.

[Democorruptcy]

42 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

 

Public sector in secure jobs and where necessary got 100% furlough are in clover and looking to spend some on a holiday home?

[Barnsey]

45 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Public sector in secure jobs and where necessary got 100% furlough are in clover and looking to spend some on a holiday home?

Younger folks will riot

[JMD]

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

Yes, but they could not do it without you.  If CB's actually wanted to do right for the majority, they would, for example, have  criticised cunts like gordon brown with his free money smash.  Or not, as that cunt Canadian did, criticised BREXIT month in month out.

Not sure if we are disagreeing much?

'...tell me the incentives, and i'll show you the outcome' (forget who said this?) - that's to say i think it is the systems and institutions that are to 'blame', especially in the spotlight of today's transparent information age, they are continually/seriously found wanting. They need massive reform, and just changing the deckchairs won't cut it. I don't expect the CB's themselves to be heroic self-sacrificing figures - if i had been born into a privileged family, sent to public school, ending up as a highly paid functionary, i bet i'd also persuede myself into thinking i was doing a brilliant and well deserved job. And if i was a politician, repeatedly re-elected, i guess i'd think i was brilliant. 

However, i share you cynicism of the present system, its a over-centralised chimera (Stalin would be proud). I fear incremental reform is impossible because of the '48/52 (brexit/trump) problem' - without a rallying belief system people drift apart into their separate tribes/bubbles. But I'm never surprised at how awful things are and so much spin; with so-called state-of-the-art A.I. self-driving car tech. being 'trained' by min. wage African women circling thousands of photos of cars!! Yep that is true. However, i'm not against all technology, personally i'm waiting for the Sparticus-cryptocoin to be created!! 

    

[Democorruptcy]

The Central Banks issue could boil down to a simple question. Do you think the world would be a better place without Central Banks? I'd vote Yes but it's too late to try it now.

[geordie_lurch]

34 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

The Central Banks issue could boil down to a simple question. Do you think the world would be a better place without Central Banks? I'd vote Yes but it's too late to try it now.

Not if Bitcoin folks have their way and their is a truly seismic shift in what we all think of and accept as 'money'

[JMD]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

The bulk of credit/money creation has been carried out by commercial banks.The abandonment of cash reserve lending and the move onto Basel allowed a largely lightly regulated banking sector to hide all manner of misbehaviour from shareholders/govts/CB's.

Govt's were effectively enabling the addict to raise their tolerance to opiates.

Yes, and can these banking institutions/characters be reformed, can their derivative soaked brains be rehabilitated?

[JMD]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

This is the key phrase

'There were close to 697,000 deaths in 2020 - nearly 85,000 more than would be expected based on the average in the previous five years.'

They're using standard deviations from the mean.If you use the previous five years as your context,then the death rate for 2020 is indeed very high.However,that low death rate is in itself a contributory factor of the spike

Thanks SP, and dbn24, chewingrass for your previous explanatory posts. I was asking for the graph to be explained as this graph was doing the rounds on the BBC (ironically by their new stats journalist). Data can be manipulated, photos can be faked, etc, but it is not enough just to scream say fake-news at the BBC. So important to understand these things i think. Thanks again for taking the time.

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Public sector in secure jobs and where necessary got 100% furlough are in clover and looking to spend some on a holiday home?

How very dare you! Most of those people are on the 'front line' i'd have you know, and fighting the covid war on all our behalf... that's why (within only a few months of the pandemic start) they raised the 'self-sacrificing cry' of pay-rises and of having need of well deserved holidays and of being abused on farcetwatter - just like real soldiers?!?