Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Chewing Grass]

18 minutes ago, JMD said:

BBC report, but does contain the interesting/troubling graph...

Covid: 2020 saw most excess deaths since World War Two - BBC News

That's was the first graph which didn't take into account the almost doubling of the population between 1940 and now.

As usual you have to read everything very carefully with the BBC and not take it at face value as read.

Their next graph further down as usual was more appropriate.

On this one they only dare go back 10 years to just scrape a statement, read it carefully.

so roughly speaking there were 20% more deaths per 100,000 people 20 years ago than there were during COVID.

 but they couldn't say that, could they...

Damn lies and statistics, you can prove whatever you want should you desire to.

[Hancock]

2 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

That's was the first graph which didn't take into account the almost doubling of the population between 1940 and now.

As usual you have to read everything very carefully with the BBC and not take it at face value as read.

Their next graph further down as usual was more appropriate.

On this one they only dare go back 10 years to just scrape a statement, read it carefully.

so roughly speaking there were 20% more deaths per 100,000 people 20 years ago than there were during COVID.

 but they couldn't say that, could they...

Damn lies and statistics, you can prove whatever you want should you desire to.

I prefer the image i get when clicking onto the BBC website, i recommend to anyone who doesnt like being lied to.

[planit]

56 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

lice state? It is a state in which individuals are answerable to the police for the most routine acts of daily life. It is a state in which the police and not the law decide what is allowed. It is a state in which people have to hide their doings from their neighbours for fear of the twitching curtain and anonymous call to the police. It is a state in which ministers denoun

Those graphs don't look bad to me, they headline with the stupid % over previous year which doesn't mean much and the other one they start the axis at 600 so it looks worse.

 

I feel the increase in deaths is for many reasons but I can't help but feel that the huge success with the flu vaccine in recent years has meant that there were a lot of extra people specifically vulnerable to Covid19 in the population. If we 'saved' 30k people every year for 5 years then this alone would make up for most of the increase, it was a highly contagious 'flu' outside their flu vaccine program.

Then add in all the extra people that got run over from stupidly walking in the road during lockdown, suicides, heart attacks with no ambulance etc etc and you pretty quickly can account for all the excess deaths.

 

New cases rolled over a couple of days ago, it would normally be 3-4 weeks for the daily deaths to roll over but I am expecting this much sooner because the vaccine should be taking effect (most 80 year olds have had it now as have front line health care workers who were infecting the vulnerable).

Once the death rate rolls over there should be a quick rise in world's stock markets as first evidence of definite recovery

[sancho panza]

Jsut r4eading lyn alden newsletter.Some interesting charts that pertain to her thesis that we've had a depression type event psot 2008

Bit in bold at the bottom is well worth bearing in mind going forward.Unstable times loom particualrly with reference to chart on mdeian wealth

 

https://www.lynalden.com/january-2021-newsletter/

Here are US suicide deaths, alcohol-related deaths, and drug-related deaths:

This is pre-pandemic data, through 2018. The government cracked down on opioids in recent years, which helped bend the curve, but it’s unclear what the outcome will be post-pandemic with so much economic hardship. There’s pain under the surface.

This indirectly has a lot to do with the petrodollar system, as I described here. In order to maintain global currency reserve status in the post-Bretton Woods system for the past 45-50 years, the United States has undermined its middle class to a greater extent than most other developed countries, by rendering its manufacturing sector uncompetitive and running persistent trade deficits. This resulted in more outsourcing than most other developed countries. The problems became acutely painful to many people over the past decade.

 

The investment bank Stifel, with a chart shown in this MarketWatch article from several months ago, directly links populism and reflationary commodity bull markets over the past two centuries:

 

[sancho panza]

jsut lsitening to the Art Berman podcast.

@Cattle Prod previosuly you've stated that 2008 run up occurred because of a 2% supply drop iirc.Can you remember the figure.Looking at Art's lower bound,8mn could cause quite a spike-admittedly possibly into lower demand from stay at home.Heaven forbid demand picks up.....I think the set up here is looking good.I've pervisouly used my finger in the wind and gone for for $85 iirc pre BK.I'm beginning to think this might run higher.

Interesting how Art talks about how much easier it is to shut rigs down rather than get them off the stack and that EIA predictions are made by bean counters rather than geologists/geophysicists etc etc who actually drill wells.Good point.

US decline rate going to 42% in 2019 from 22% in 2014 if no new wells drilled,very much backing up your point re low hanging fruit getting picked.

https://www.macrovoices.com/

 

Interesting to hear Eric,say 'if we had a healthy economy then short term interest rates would be 5%-10%,not 5 to 10 basis points'....

Art saying a few things such as oil is'uninvestable'.Perhaps explaining why Saudi's cut production before US shale was dead.Ergo US shale must already be dead in the water.Memories of gold miners being unable to borrow and arriving into 2018 with very solid balance sheets.

Saying markets are obsessed with trying to predict demand when supply is the predictable element.

Interesting in the changes in the recovery between gasoline 80% and diesel 130% (diesel shooting higher and gasoline lower).

Also nice to see Art reflect on what he got worng Q4 in terms of applying rig count drop to extrapolate US shale drop.

 

 

[Hancock]

35 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

An important macro driver for the next 12 months I think:

 

Exactly, but they have played an absolute blinder to get their man the US Presidency. Some would say they've taken it a bit too far though.

[Don Coglione]

3 hours ago, JMD said:

Indeed. Moreover the US is an example of country that actually benefits from a more mobile workforce. Btw, i'm not talking 'open-borders' of course!!... 'everything in moderation', as the ancient Greeks used to say.  

Don't Merkins, as both buyers and sellers, have to pay 6% commission to a real estate agent? 

That's worse than stamp duty!

[Noallegiance]

Catching up on some podcasts today. Schiff is ringing the commodities bell in his typically dramatic fashion, but I found this a very interesting listen:

 

 

 

[geordie_lurch]

10 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Catching up on some podcasts today. Schiff is ringing the commodities bell in his typically dramatic fashion, but I found this a very interesting listen:

 

Trouble is that he has been saying this for at least 10 years since I bought some physical silver at about the same price as I'd have to pay for it now

Don't get me wrong though as I think silver will have it's day but if you had listened to him or Max Keiser back then (Buy silver, crash JP Morgan etc) and bought physical nearly a decade later all you have to show for it is many years of storage fees or a sore back from lugging it around unless you lost it in a 'boating accident'

 

[Noallegiance]

35 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Trouble is that he has been saying this for at least 10 years since I bought some physical silver at about the same price as I'd have to pay for it now

Don't get me wrong though as I think silver will have it's day but if you had listened to him or Max Keiser back then (Buy silver, crash JP Morgan etc) and bought physical nearly a decade later all you have to show for it is many years of storage fees or a sore back from lugging it around unless you lost it in a 'boating accident'

 

I should have specified, most of what I found useful was outside of the click-baiting headline!

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

One way to think about it is that we are in a 2% supply deficit currently (which we are), but oil is $57, not $157. The reason is the market believes OPEC is holding a bunch of oil off the market, and that US shale can respond quickly. Of course neither is true, and they will price this in as it becomes more obvious. There is a chance of a serious panic over supplies later this year, as you see in the gas market now. I don't quite know how that will affect company share prices: they don't tend to react to price spikes as quickly as the underlying. It takes a while for cash to filter through to company announcements, and share price rises.

The first bit is about a supply deficit, so should the highlighted bit be under not over supplies?

[Loki]

Just now, Democorruptcy said:

The first bit is about a supply deficit, so should the highlighted bit be under not over supplies?

I think he meant panic about supplies 

[Democorruptcy]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

I think he meant panic about supplies 

I see what he means now thanks, a panic about supply being low. That's more like it. 

[feed]

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/01/13/lagarde-calls-faster-european-stimulus-bitcoin-crackdown/

Speaking to Reuters, Ms Lagarde said: "It's not any longer a health rollout and vaccination logistics, it's an economic rollout of programmes, which have to move fast because we clearly have a need for continued support both from a fiscal point of view and a monetary point of view

..

"Our forecast is predicated on lockdown measures until the end of the first quarter so what would be a concern would be if after the end of March those states need to continue having lockdown measures and if for instance vaccination programmes were slowed down.”

[Democorruptcy]

Just now, Cattle Prod said:

Poorly worded, change 'over' to 'about'

No worries Loki obviously understood. It just made me shift nervously in my chair seeing 'over' and 'supplies' being so close together in a post about oil. Re this 2% supply deficit, I'd say my car use in the past year has dropped closer to 98%. Here in Wales I feel like I've spent most of it in lockdown. It's weeks again of the rules not allowing me to drive anywhere for a walk. Exercise from the house only, I'm just lucky I have a lot choice from the door.

[Chewing Grass]

10 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

No worries Loki obviously understood. It just made me shift nervously in my chair seeing 'over' and 'supplies' being so close together in a post about oil. Re this 2% supply deficit, I'd say my car use in the past year has dropped closer to 98%. Here in Wales I feel like I've spent most of it in lockdown. It's weeks again of the rules not allowing me to drive anywhere for a walk. Exercise from the house only, I'm just lucky I have a lot choice from the door.

Here is imports of Oil in the United Kingdom. source: Office For National Statistics, U.k.

This only goes to September.

It has literally halved, oil use is what it was 15 years ago even considering this doesn't include our own production.

 

[geordie_lurch]

24 minutes ago, feed said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/01/13/lagarde-calls-faster-european-stimulus-bitcoin-crackdown/

Speaking to Reuters, Ms Lagarde said: "It's not any longer a health rollout and vaccination logistics, it's an economic rollout of programmes, which have to move fast because we clearly have a need for continued support both from a fiscal point of view and a monetary point of view

..

"Our forecast is predicated on lockdown measures until the end of the first quarter so what would be a concern would be if after the end of March those states need to continue having lockdown measures and if for instance vaccination programmes were slowed down.”

Thanks for that link @feed - it has the following amazing quote in it with my emphasis added...

Quote

Ms Lagarde also said officials needed to look at a global solution to regulating Bitcoin after “some funny business” and “totally reprehensible money laundering activity”.

She said that regulation of the cryptocurrency market needs to be agreed “at a global level because if there is an escape, that escape will be used”

I think she has pretty much given the game away there... people being able to escape the current excess money printing in Fiat currencies

[Wheeler]

13 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Thanks for that link @feed - it has the following amazing quote in it with my emphasis added...

I think she has pretty much given the game away there... people being able to escape the current excess money printing in Fiat currencies

Ms Lagarde also said officials needed to look at a global solution to regulating Bitcoin after “some funny business” and “totally reprehensible money laundering activity”.

My bold: Is she talking about what she got up to at the IMF or what she is doing now at the ECB?

[Democorruptcy]

48 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

You're talking about demand, not supply. Are you getting more deliveries? Gasoline demand in the US is still around 10% below the 5 year average, while diesel is around 10% above the 5 year average. in Asia, all products are growing. As against this improving demand picture, supply has been severely cut back causing the current supply/demand deficit.

I'm talking about my demand has dropped, so I don't need as much supplying. Like I say though, I am in a covid rules red spot. Other people have more freedom. I'm not surprised it's growing in Asia, they don't have our useless lot in charge.

[Loki]

20 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

@sancho panza i think we need to keep a tight watch on where on the curve the Fed move here.If they try to keep the long end down they are trying to help government with fiscal spending,thats more inflationary ,if they force the short end down more,they are trying to keep more companies alive for now and that will be less inflationary.

If its the long end they are trying to get liquidity into the real economy without the banks.

Do you have any thoughts on this latest update from Dave H

 

[Democorruptcy]

6 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

That's was the first graph which didn't take into account the almost doubling of the population between 1940 and now.

As usual you have to read everything very carefully with the BBC and not take it at face value as read.

Their next graph further down as usual was more appropriate.

On this one they only dare go back 10 years to just scrape a statement, read it carefully.

so roughly speaking there were 20% more deaths per 100,000 people 20 years ago than there were during COVID.

 but they couldn't say that, could they...

Damn lies and statistics, you can prove whatever you want should you desire to.

We will never know how many of those deaths were OF covid. The ONS counts 'covid mentioned on the death certificate' while PHE count "Deaths of any cause within 28 days of a positive covid test". Therefore both are just WITH covid. The uptick could just largely be the deaths caused by the government response to covid. In the first lockdown people missed surgery, old people might have been left to slip away to free up an hospital bed that was never needed, the backlog for diagnosis that itself has created a backlog for treatment, suicide, heart attacks from lack of exercise and lockdown obesity, etc etc.

Now they might even be making a mess of the vaccine. The CDC don't agree with delaying the 2nd jab.

Quote

 

You should get your second shot as close to the recommended 3-week or 1-month interval as possible. However, there is no maximum interval between the first and second doses for either vaccine. You should not get the second dose earlier than the recommended interval.

It takes time for your body to build protection after any vaccination. COVID-19 vaccines that require 2 shots may not protect you until a week or two after your second shot.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/expect/after.html?

 

 

[Chewing Grass]

19 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Now they might even be making a mess of the vaccine. The CDC don't agree with delaying the 2nd jab.

Therefore most of their decisions are politically motivated to get themselves out of the hole they have dug and the vaccine is anything but with the get out clause built-in when it fails.

Plan A and Plan B.

[Democorruptcy]

8 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Therefore most of their decisions are politically motivated to get themselves out of the hole they have dug and the vaccine is anything but with the get out clause built-in when it fails.

Plan A and Plan B.

If you look at which sector has done best out of their decisions I wouldn't say they were politically motivated. I'd say banker motivated. The governbankment has splurged money so people can afford to pay their debts to banks and propped up assets that banks were holding. The public only temporarily hold the furlough money that then goes to the banks to pay mortgages and credit card bills. Existing business loans have been switched to Bounceback loans, so the liability is transferred to taxpayers. The stamp duty holiday has propped up house prices so banks don't have property losses. 

[jamtomorrow]

1 hour ago, geordie_lurch said:

I think she has pretty much given the game away there... people being able to escape the current excess money printing in Fiat currencies

Whoops-a-daisy, she accidentally said the quiet part loud. Fiat land starting to feel like ...

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

Do you have any thoughts on this latest update from Dave H

 

No,i read Davids thoughts about once every couple of weeks if that.He tweets for the gallery, but would be the first to say let things play out.