Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[leonardratso]

8 minutes ago, Loki said:

For me, it's CNA.

some shitty aim stock would do it in 2 days. Like UKOG for example.

when i say do it i obviously mean destroy that 30K to zero.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, leonardratso said:

some shitty aim stock

For me, it's INFA.

[Democorruptcy]

US House prices too high so "help" buyers with a $15k tax break to leverage that will increase prices more!

Quote

 

Biden looks to give a big boost to homebuyers and builders

Anyone looking to buy a home today is likely frustrated by sky-high prices and slim pickings. But President-elect Joe Biden, who takes office Wednesday, will aim to ease those issues as he gears up to implement his plans for the housing market.

Biden is proposing a $15,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit, which could be accessed immediately by the buyer, thereby serving as down payment assistance.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/19/biden-looks-to-give-a-big-boost-to-homebuyers-and-builders.html

 

 

[Noallegiance]

27 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

US House prices too high so "help" buyers with a $15k tax break to leverage that will increase prices more!

 

I'm sorry. Did I say it was in5 the market for $4,500,000?

I meant $4,515,000.

[RJT1979]

Hasn't Telford got grooming problems?

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

US House prices too high so "help" buyers with a $15k tax break to leverage that will increase prices more!

 

Typical socialist screwing over the working class, they're all the f'en same. What a cunt, hope he gets shot tomorrow for being a property bubble blowing cunt.

 

[Hunty]

49 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Typical socialist screwing over the working class, they're all the f'en same. What a cunt, hope he gets shot tomorrow for being a property bubble blowing cunt.

 

It is better to prepare and prevent than it is to repair and repent. How true that is of the law of chastity. The first line of defense in keeping ourselves morally clean is to prepare ourselves to resist temptation and prevent ourselves from falling into sin.

In other words. "Fuck em". Buy Oilies. Lots.

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Typical socialist screwing over the working class, they're all the f'en same. What a cunt, hope he gets shot tomorrow for being a property bubble blowing cunt.

[wherebee]

We don't do that here on DOSBODS - wishing for people to get shot just because of their political views.  That's what the Bidens and Pelosi people do.

[DurhamBorn]

6 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

I can see it makes sense with one of our picks but would BAT be the one DB, will it have that level of share price increase over the decade, a triple. I'd have gone with BP. 

Im on about the divi ,£30k of shares pays the interest on a £100k 2.7% mortgage.I dont think the shares will do a lot in capital terms,maybe 50% over the cycle with 8% a year divis.

[MrXxxx]

9 hours ago, leonardratso said:

you know boro will win everytime, its a utopia there i hear.

or maybe i misheard.

Just bear in mind Sweden has its own immigration problems and where do you think they are going to `farm` them out to?......its not all ABBA and pornstars you know! :-)

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, Loki said:

For me, it's CNA.

I'm not going to listen to any of ya, @YRS is my man, what do you think @YRS? :-) :-) :-)

[Democorruptcy]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

£30k in BAT to pay a £100k mortgage.I wouldnt usually advise such things,but something like that has to be tempting.

I had a look at Biden's view on fags/vaping, he doesn't seem keen for the usual reasons:

Quote

 

With so much pro-vaping information already available, why does Mr. Biden still need more “scientific data” before he can decide vaping’s fate?  His seemingly aggressive stance against electronic cigarettes may stem from his strong and decades-old ties to Big Pharma. 

According to the website Open Secrets, Joe Biden is the #1 recipient of campaign contributions by the pharmaceuticals industry in the amount of $6,324, 837 and climbing.    In comparison, Donald Trump – the second-highest recipient – only received about $1.6 billion.

Because Big Pharma manufactures and distributes the more conventional stop-smoking aids like nicotine patches, gums, and lozenges, pharmaceutical industries have always been the vaping industry’s primary nemesis  Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s long and affectionate history with Big Pharma dates all the way back to when he was Vice President under Barack Obama.

Under the Obama Administration, Joe Biden was instrumental in the passage of the Tobacco Control Act of 2009.  When it was signed into law, this single piece of legislation gave the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) the legal authority to regulate smokeless tobacco products. The FDA deeming regulations soon followed which threaten the vaping industry’s existence to this very day.

https://www.vapes.com/blogs/news/what-is-joe-biden-s-views-on-vaping

 

Another article https://filtermag.org/tobacco-harm-reduction-biden-administration/

Of course he cannot stop Asia etc smoking!

Edit to add: BAT made thread darling Lynn Alden's Top 5 rock solid Blue Chip last November

Quote

 

British American Tobacco is not in a very attractive industry, but it makes a ton of money. Believe it or not, they’ve outperformed the S&P 500 going back to 1995, when you include reinvested dividends.

And right now, they’re dirt cheap, with a 7% dividend yield:

BTI’s diverse global footprint gives it some protection against regulatory actions of any one country. Many countries around the world having higher tobacco usage than the United States, which unfortunately makes a very lucrative environment for this company.

https://www.lynalden.com/blue-chip-dividend-stocks/

 

 

[Talking Monkey]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im on about the divi ,£30k of shares pays the interest on a £100k 2.7% mortgage.I dont think the shares will do a lot in capital terms,maybe 50% over the cycle with 8% a year divis.

Cheers DB for explaining

[ThoughtCriminal]

11 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

You might not be quite so keen when the snow is up to your neck, it's -15 and dark at 2pm! 

I've skied in Are (on the same latitude to the west side of Sweden). It was epic but not sure I'd want to live there all year round.

Boro it is for you then lol

 

Personally I love the cold and dark and would rather not live as a mortgage slave 

[Hancock]

7 hours ago, wherebee said:

We don't do that here on DOSBODS - wishing for people to get shot just because of their political views.  That's what the Bidens and Pelosi people do.

Since when has giving money to inflate the property bubble been a political view? Its corruption and aimed at destroying lives of 10s of millions of working families, but its most certainly not a political view.

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Just bear in mind Sweden has its own immigration problems and where do you think they are going to `farm` them out to?......its not all ABBA and pornstars you know! :-)

They're all in Malmo, Gothenburg and Stockholm. 

 

The stabby, rapey "let me molest your kid or you're racist innit" UK is in no position to lecture anyone on immigration. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

4 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Since when has giving money to inflate the property bubble been a political view? Its corruption and aimed at destroying lives of 10s of millions of working families, but its most certainly not a political view.

 

Yeah, I can't get my knickers in a twist over someone wishing death on a corrupt, warmongering race baiting psychopath. 

 

What's weird is making a cult of democracy to the point where, if someone is elected, then anything goes. 

 

This is going to be the most radically left administration in history. I think there's economic black swans coming down the road as we see America start the process of disintegrating and being usurped by China as the premier economic and political power over the next few years. 

[Hardhat]

Relevant

 

[Hancock]

58 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Yeah, I can't get my knickers in a twist over someone wishing death on a corrupt, warmongering race baiting psychopath. 

What's weird is making a cult of democracy to the point where, if someone is elected, then anything goes. 

This is going to be the most radically left administration in history. I think there's economic black swans coming down the road as we see America start the process of disintegrating and being usurped by China as the premier economic and political power over the next few years. 

Extreme left wing for us, not for those with vast money and power. But for those in power that have destroyed society in the last 2 decades their demise is the best thing that can happen. (apologies for now raising political views)

[Don Coglione]

14 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

As we're having a bit of a HPC moment tonight I just had to post this as an illustration of how fucked we are when it comes to house prices here. 

 

https://european-property.com/property/4-bed-house-for-sale-in-mellansel--sweden-37761

 

4 bed house in a village in Northern Sweden (FUCKING SWEDEN!), huge gardens, parking for 6 cars, sauna. 

 

95k. And he's open to offers. 😳

 

I'm in North Yorkshire and that would be 400K here all day long. 

 

This fucking country............. 🤦‍♂️

 

Anyway, got that off my chest.

 

Apologies.

 

Thread derailment over. 

 

And yet Stockholm is one of the world's largest property bubbles...

[JMD]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im on about the divi ,£30k of shares pays the interest on a £100k 2.7% mortgage.I dont think the shares will do a lot in capital terms,maybe 50% over the cycle with 8% a year divis.

DB, its great that you have put a figure on it (useful info. i think to help gauge personal risk/reward), but regarding BAT - why do you think it will only do a 50% uplift from here over the next decade/cycle? The last two years their price has been low, but effectively BAT hasn't been as cheap for 10 years. And their free-cash flow (so long as they pay down debt) will make them into great 'cash machines'. Steady/boring, inflation protected/front running, divi paying companies should become very attractive things to own - do they not fit this thread's thesis almost perfectly? ...Tbh, i was looking at BAT and other - divi paying, utility like - companies as becoming kinda like a new asset class in their own right, especially as income from bonds is/continue to be, so unattractive. 

[sancho panza]

21 hours ago, janch said:

This was covered by Shaun Richards today and does seem to be significant.  I'm not sure about the implications and would welcome some thoughts from @DurhamBorn.  Is it a big deal in the scheme of things and has it been factored into the roadmap?

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/

He ahsa great piece on UK inflation today.As ever,one of the few economists who has tried to bring light to the area where working people are most abused by the politcal/statistical class.

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2021/01/20/the-uk-has-an-inflation-problem-which-it-is-trying-to-hide/

Comment

There are always issues with inflation measurement as who is the typical household? But you can make a decent fist of it if you try. But sadly back in 2002/03 the UK decided to join the European trend in ignoring owner occupied housing costs. This is a great swerve for civil servants as it means they can claim wealth effects but the reality of higher house prices is inflation especially for first time buyers. There is always a weasel word and the one here is consumption because you see assets are not part of consumption whereas if we switch to the consumer then even the ECB admits up to a third of income is spent on housing.

There are efforts to improve this such as the Household Costs Index but sadly the same trend of it being manipulated is in play. Last week there was an official Zoom seminar on the subject given by Dr.Martin Weale who use to be at the Bank of England. To give you a clue I still remember him trying to explain to me how the UK house price rises should be recorded as negative inflation. That is why the establishment push his views in spite of the mess he made of the average earnings numbers.

 

16 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Thanks Demo and everyone else, fixed mortgage (portable) for 15 years at 2.59% 

Who's that with Barnsey.I've been lsitening to the macrovocies Luke Gromen podcast.May have to consdier selling some stock and l;evering Mrs P's income.15 years really piques my interest.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Entertaining story here about the Oxy-Anadarko takeover battle, and the subsequent share price decline which some people here like @sancho panza didn't enjoy very much...

https://www.texasmonthly.com/news/how-the-most-hyped-u-s-oil-merger-in-a-decade-went-bust/

I didn't know much about Vicky Hollub before reading this, but one thing the interviewer doesn't explore is that she is an engineer. Petroleum engineers and petroleum geolscientists are very different. They have completely different brain wiring, and are ususally in some form of conflict in work. Both are necessary and neither are wrong, but in a nutshell, engineers tend to think lineraly, black and white, and hate uncertainty or risk. Geoscientists are more creative, vague, and comfortable with the unknown. So engineers bloody love shale, because there is no risk or uncertainty, just how to turn it into an efficient factory. I think her driver, more than anything else, was to dominate the Permian. She is clearly obsessed with it. At high prices, Oxy will print money from the Permian shale play. At low prices, they don't have enough conventional stuff to offset the losses, and if they have abandoned their wildcatting past, the exploration pipeline to keep feeding in. I didn't like the shale concentration after the deal was announced, and exited. Now I can see the CEO was blinded by it. But I'll be watching them post BK when sustained high prices are in the pipes.

Also, executive compensation in the US is astonishing, I can't believe they get away with it.

Illuminating read CP.Really interesting to read about the way she was drawn into the deal and the various wanring flags there were for all to see if they dug deep enough-which I didn't- as well as how the engineers think differently in terms of risk.I also at the time saw Buffet's role as a plus when it was clearly a negative at the price extracted.

We bought as part of a 'spray n pray' of US shale/small oilies,the rest of which got sold ahead of covid for a small profit.Don't know why I kept Oxy-most likely greed-but we've paid the price and didn't average down at $10.Flashbacks to the Scottish play.

The key thing I think with losses is to try and learn from them-what went right,what went wrong.

 

PS have you listend to the Luke Gromen Macrovocies podcast?
 

[Barnsey]

39 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

He ahsa great piece on UK inflation today.As ever,one of the few economists who has tried to bring light to the area where working people are most abused by the politcal/statistical class.

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2021/01/20/the-uk-has-an-inflation-problem-which-it-is-trying-to-hide/

Comment

There are always issues with inflation measurement as who is the typical household? But you can make a decent fist of it if you try. But sadly back in 2002/03 the UK decided to join the European trend in ignoring owner occupied housing costs. This is a great swerve for civil servants as it means they can claim wealth effects but the reality of higher house prices is inflation especially for first time buyers. There is always a weasel word and the one here is consumption because you see assets are not part of consumption whereas if we switch to the consumer then even the ECB admits up to a third of income is spent on housing.

There are efforts to improve this such as the Household Costs Index but sadly the same trend of it being manipulated is in play. Last week there was an official Zoom seminar on the subject given by Dr.Martin Weale who use to be at the Bank of England. To give you a clue I still remember him trying to explain to me how the UK house price rises should be recorded as negative inflation. That is why the establishment push his views in spite of the mess he made of the average earnings numbers.

 

Who's that with Barnsey.I've been lsitening to the macrovocies Luke Gromen podcast.May have to consdier selling some stock and l;evering Mrs P's income.15 years really piques my interest.

Accord via broker, or 2.75% with YBS (same company), 75% LTV.