Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[JMD]

6 hours ago, Hardhat said:

Sure. I think the price would also come down massively in this kind of situation. But, I don't think it's possible or enforceable to completely destroy the network now, you just need enough willing participants. Same as any black market.

It strikes me as strange how tribal the BTC topic sometimes gets, after all most/all here if they do own BTC most probably also own gold. I certainly do.                                                                                                              Anyway I agree that black markets will always find a way to operate. But on a lighter note perhaps passive resistance could also be considered? ...How about the crypto community self declare themselves as Electro-Gypsies along with protected characteristics, I can hear our anguished battle cry - '...our coin is our caravan!!!'     (Apologies to any travellers out there for any offence taken, though I dought that any frequent this thread)

[JMD]

6 hours ago, Harley said:

This is the problem I have implementing the "at source" approach", the devil being in the detail.  Some packaging companies and similar came up on my value screens but do they fit the bill?  I passed as I adopted an "added value" approach - does a company/sector/industry deliver enough relative value add to the chain to make them a possible price setter?  I suggest not in this case, relative to say the raw materials producer.

That's interesting Harley because I do include some of these packaging co's on my BK/watchlist. But then again I also have shipping companies and they are far from being decomplex, however they do fit the 'price setter' metric - I guess there are no hard rules here.

[wherebee]

34 minutes ago, JMD said:

It strikes me as strange how tribal the BTC topic sometimes gets, after all most/all here if they do own BTC most probably also own gold. I certainly do.                                                                                                              Anyway I agree that black markets will always find a way to operate. But on a lighter note perhaps passive resistance could also be considered? ...How about the crypto community self declare themselves as Electro-Gypsies along with protected characteristics, I can hear our anguished battle cry - '...our coin is our caravan!!!'     (Apologies to any travellers out there for any offence taken, though I dought that any frequent this thread)

No one is allowed to take offence on DOSBODS.  That is the only offence - taking offence.

If you look at what happened in history when the authorities banned certain value assets, their value was not destroyed against fiat or devalued coinage.  However, as someone above pointed out, there is a lot of difference between subtly paying someone in turkish silver for a horse, and paying someone in BTC where a full audit trail is created which the authorities can later smack you for.

I can see BTC being accepted in some countries and not others.  The value will be for those people with the ability to earn in a banned country and enjoy in an unbanned country (by banned I mean the regulations will make it very hard to use and impose additional costs in the form of taxes and regulation for retail holders).

[macca]

8 minutes ago, wherebee said:

I can see BTC being accepted in some countries and not others.  The value will be for those people with the ability to earn in a banned country and enjoy in an unbanned country (by banned I mean the regulations will make it very hard to use and impose additional costs in the form of taxes and regulation for retail holders).

At this moment in time its just a big ponzi, and a massive waste of the worlds electricity, in a time when 14 billion tons of polar ice melt every second.., maybe they could use all that computer power to invent something useful..? It produces absolutely nothing..

I'm not sure how anyone could except BTC as payment for goods.. 

If i bought a Ferrari with 2 BTC, The seller could wake up tomorrow wanting to cash in for Dollars, only to find he sold his 100k car for 40k thanks to BTC tanking overnight.. 

How can you except payment for goods when something is so unstable..?

Also if its money, Why do the people that hold it get so excited about turning it back into fiat currency.. 

They should say i have 10 bitcoin in my wallet.. not iv'e got $100'000 of fiat in bitcoin.. stating the value is the fiat not the BTC itself.. kind of proving the point its all bollox.

Its an asset?. But an asset that does nothing, contains nothing, you cant hold it, touch it, it just burns electric for fun..

When this strange economic nightmare of corruption unwinds itself i would want to be holding land, cattle and seeds, preferably on high ground..

 

[Loki]

5 hours ago, JMD said:

In general i think a big cliff edge move down in price is a sign of share dilution. But looking at the intrepid chart there isn't a clear indication of that happening. I guess that means having to trawl through their website docs/press releases.

Thanks mate i feared that might be the case!

[ThoughtCriminal]

8 hours ago, leonardratso said:

talking of analysis i had like a £100 left in t212 and nothing i wanted to buy a while back so i just threw it into NYSE:UAMY cos it came up on some mistyped search and was extremely cheap and looked crap from the website i saw, ive never really bothered to check it or be interested in and just noticed it tonight, so a zero analysis wild punt;

You cant really make this shit up.

Wouldnt be so bad if it looked an okish company, but looks like some rednecks with shovels to me,

bit like a bigger version of the aussie opal hunters....

https://www.usantimony.com/

Nice bit of 1980's web design going on as well.

I laughed at this. 

 

Then I thought "doesn't this just sum up the present moment?". 

 

You can buy the biggest pile of steaming dog shit there is, and you still make huge gains. 

 

Ive a friend who bought a load of vaccine manufacturers long after the announcements, he's up massively in them all. 

 

There's no rhyme or reason behind it. Those companies aren't making huge profits from vaccines. 

 

Now he thinks he's a genius and it's day trading next. 

 

I know this is down to liquidity searching for a home, but it doesn't make it any less batshit crazy and it's going to end in tears. 

 

That's the message he sent me. How many more out there are like him and now think they're Warren buffet?

 

 

[Lightscribe]

6 hours ago, JMD said:

It strikes me as strange how tribal the BTC topic sometimes gets, after all most/all here if they do own BTC most probably also own gold. I certainly do.                                                                                                             

I do too. I also have no particular sector that I oppose, because I don’t believe assets should be tied to emotion. I couldn’t care if BTC went to zero, (it nearly has multiple times since 2012 having owned it) I’m in crypto for the long haul, wherever that may lead. I try to remain neutral and invest in everything that I can see value or potential. But then I’ve always believed diversification is the key.

I own a property outright but I want a house price crash (correction is needed for any type of sustainability) I hold BT and Vodafone despite never having a contract with either.  I like tech industry (as that’s the industry I work in) but would never buy in the sector (except ARM, Texas Instruments and TSMC when cheap enough). I’m heavily in oil despite selling out in 2014/15 before the last big fall and thinking that was the last time I would have shares in the sector. I’m invested in miners and a fair amount of physical silver despite not being a gold or silver bug until the lows of the last few years. That’s all before I get to my mountain of UCS Lego’s I’ve never opened/built or investment watches I never wear!

My crypto updates over the years on this thread were always brief discussions. I think with more adoption and wider acceptance and regulation, it may start becoming a small allocation of every portfolio.

I think when people don’t fully agree/understand something, animosity can come with it. Horses for courses, we’ll all end up better placed than 99.9% of the population for what’s coming regardless.

 

[Castlevania]

10 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I do too. I also have no particular sector that I oppose, because I don’t believe assets  should be tied to emotion. I try to remain neutral and invest in everything that I can see value or potential. But then I’ve always believed diversification is the key.

I own a property outright but I want a house price crash (correction is needed for any type of sustainability) I hold BT and Vodafone despite never having a contract with either.  I like tech industry (as that’s the industry I work in) but would never buy in the sector (except ARM, Texas Instruments and TSMC when cheap enough). I’m heavily in oil despite selling out in 2014/15 before the last big fall and thinking that was the last time I would have shares in the sector. I’m invested in miners and a fair amount of physical silver despite not being a gold or silver bug until the lows of the last few years. That’s all before I get to my mountain of UCS Lego’s I’ve never opened/built or investment watches I never wear!

I think when people don’t fully agree/understand something, animosity can come with it. Horses for courses, we’ll all end up better placed than 99.9% of the population for what’s coming regardless.

 

What’s a UCS Lego?

[Lightscribe]

1 minute ago, Castlevania said:

What’s a UCS Lego?

Ultimate collector series. Have I introduced Dosbods to a new asset class?

The modular building sets however are the main series when retired go for extreme prices.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/LEGO-4566081-Cafe-Corner-10182/dp/B000OTF4CQ

[MrXxxx]

7 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

It’s time to forget reflation and value asset driven stocks. You’re all using statistics, charts, macros and thinking logically of a previous financial system. 

You all haven’t let go and truly embraced the clown world existence yet. Negative interest rates, inflation through the roof, UBI, million pound 2 bed terraces, crypto money with dogs on and food based defi tokens is the new normal for 1000% gains! 

Next to watch is Amazon.
 

https://www.coindesk.com/amazon-digital-currency-mexico

https://aws.amazon.com/about-aws/whats-new/2020/12/amazon-managed-blockchain-supports-ethereum/

 

Not sure how much of this reply is in jest, but to a certain extent there is an element of truth in what you say. I sometimes feel that far too much of a quantitative approach is taken in economics treating it like a pure science, where people forget the fact that human nature can easily disrupt this approach by providing a `chance`/unpredictable variable...sometimes I feel its better to take a qualitative approach a go on `gut instinct`......or maybe I just use this excuse as I am too lazy to learn the former?! :-)

[MrXxxx]

51 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I laughed at this. 

 

Then I thought "doesn't this just sum up the present moment?". 

 

You can buy the biggest pile of steaming dog shit there is, and you still make huge gains. 

 

Ive a friend who bought a load of vaccine manufacturers long after the announcements, he's up massively in them all. 

 

There's no rhyme or reason behind it. Those companies aren't making huge profits from vaccines. 

 

Now he thinks he's a genius and it's day trading next. 

 

I know this is down to liquidity searching for a home, but it doesn't make it any less batshit crazy and it's going to end in tears. 

 

That's the message he sent me. How many more out there are like him and now think they're Warren buffet?

 

 

I think this is going to be my problem having started in March....and I will only realise that I am Delboy rather than Warren when I get a `spanking` :-)

[jamtomorrow]

5 hours ago, macca said:

If i bought a Ferrari with 2 BTC, The seller could wake up tomorrow wanting to cash in for Dollars, only to find he sold his 100k car for 40k thanks to BTC tanking overnight.. 

How can you except payment

I like the volatility - every time there's a 30% correction in fiat terms you know a whole pile of weak hands just folded. And every time there's a big spike, you know a load of shorts got burned. $0.5bn shorts liquidated this week alone on the Musk spike.

Some here will find that horrific. Think you might need to convert back to fiat within next 4Y? BTC probably not for you. Playing with leverage? BTC not for you. Nervous disposition? Not for you.

Majority of assets I hold aren't like this, but having grown to understand and appreciate Bitcoin's brutal cleansing dynamic I'm now wondering who *really* benefits most from "orderly markets". 

[Lightscribe]

19 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Not sure how much of this reply is in jest, but to a certain extent there is an element of truth in what you say. I sometimes feel that far too much of a quantitative approach is taken in economics treating it like a pure science, where people forget the fact that human nature can easily disrupt this approach by providing a `chance`/unpredictable variable...sometimes I feel its better to take a qualitative approach a go on `gut instinct`......or maybe I just use this excuse as I am too lazy to learn the former?! :-)

Yes it was entirely in jest, but you’re right there is an element of truth. That’s probably why economic professors aren’t the billionaires of this world.

Anecdotal from me, both my brothers are incredibly more financially wealthy than me (in terms of income and businesses they run) but haven’t a clue when it comes to investment or tax, both never has had a pension or ISA.

The most wealthy of them has always taken risks to the extreme that I would never take, without a thought to a potential worst case scenario (i.e. mortgage, family to provide for). That all gone in his favour, and his income covers his payments on £100k cars, private schools and ridiculous mortgage payments.... for now. But my overanalysing would have never enabled me to do anything similar.

It’s a bit like BTL and house prices. Absolutely out of sync with reality and abysmal returns on paper when looking at the numbers, but we’ve all been proved to look like the silly ones the last decade. Sometimes you have to just think what the masses will do, despite any logic or reasoning, until forced to stop one way or another when it all implodes.

I didn’t think the CB interest rates could ever go negative in the face of inflation, may be they can after all. If you’re between a rock and a hard place and it’s all going to hell in a hand cart anyway may as well go out with a shabang. 

[Chewing Grass]

10 hours ago, leonardratso said:

Wouldnt be so bad if it looked an okish company, but looks like some rednecks with shovels to me,

bit like a bigger version of the aussie opal hunters....

The photograph piqued my interest as it had a small building on the right labelled Gold/Silver.

The Los Juarez property and mill at Puerto Blanco are being permitted to start gold and silver production that will supplement the antimony values and identify the Company as a "precious metal producer." 

[Harley]

29 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Yes it was entirely in jest, but you’re right there is an element of truth. That’s probably why economic professors aren’t the billionaires of this world.

Anecdotal from me, both my brothers are incredibly more financially wealthy than me (in terms of income and businesses they run) but haven’t a clue when it comes to investment or tax, both never has had a pension or ISA.

The most wealthy of them has always taken risks to the extreme that I would never take, without a thought to a potential worst case scenario (i.e. mortgage, family to provide for). That all gone in his favour, and his income covers his payments on £100k cars, private schools and ridiculous mortgage payments.... for now. But my overanalysing would have never enabled me to do anything similar.

It’s a bit like BTL and house prices. Absolutely out of sync with reality and abysmal returns on paper when looking at the numbers, but we’ve all been proved to look like the silly ones the last decade. Sometimes you have to just think what the masses will do, despite any logic or reasoning, until forced to stop one way or another when it all implodes.

I didn’t think the CB interest rates could ever go negative in the face of inflation, may be they can after all. If you’re between a rock and a hard place and it’s all going to hell in a hand cart anyway may as well go out with a shabang. 

Way I see it, you're either in or out.  If you say you couldn't play the system but evaluate yourself according to that system, then you're in and playing the system!  This insanity (or whatever the correct words are), tupperism, covid, etc (and all the other stuff on that back of those), all does my head in so now I only play by the one system - the Harley system.  And that's as much a state of mind as anything else.  Relevant to this macro thread?  Well if we are indeed at a major turning, then we had better get out attitudes, perspectives, and all the rest sorted to deal with it.   Or summing like that!

[Lightscribe]

14 minutes ago, Harley said:

Way I see it, you're either in or out.  If you say you couldn't play the system but evaluate yourself according to that system, then you're in and playing the system!  This insanity (or whatever the correct words are), tupperism, covid, etc (and all the other stuff on that back of those), all does my head in so now I only play by the one system - the Harley system.  And that's as much a state of mind as anything else.  Relevant to this macro thread?  Well if we are indeed at a major turning, then we had better get out attitudes, perspectives, and all the rest sorted to deal with it.   Or summing like that!

Yes, we all have our own individual factors (savings/investments/capital/income/age) and are all trying to navigate what’s coming as we’re all in the system and have to evaluate against it (other than those that have achieved total self sustainability) 

I’m just highlighting the fact about rationalising oneself against the financial insanity we face and so far the lunatics keep running the asylum and no one seems to notice.

Relevant to thread? Very much so.

[Hancock]

Royal Mail up 6.5% (the day after i sold my kids holding for £900) though it was up 100% in a matter of months!

[afly]

2 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Royal Mail up 6.5% (the day after i sold my kids holding for £900) though it was up 100% in a matter of months!

Yes I sold 3/4's of my holding last week (after 130% gains admittedly)

I'm struggling to read this market. The increase seems to be because RM have announced they did well at Christmas time. Surely that was obvious given the situation? All seems very reactionary

[RJT1979]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Ultimate collector series. Have I introduced Dosbods to a new asset class?

The modular building sets however are the main series when retired go for extreme prices.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/LEGO-4566081-Cafe-Corner-10182/dp/B000OTF4CQ

I saw that one at JL for 60 quid before Xmas. Nobody will pay that. 

[Lightscribe]

6 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

I saw that one at JL for 60 quid before Xmas. Nobody will pay that. 

You didn’t. Cafe corner hasn’t been in production since 2011.

You may of seen any of these but they weren’t £60.

https://www.lego.com/en-gb/categories/modular-buildings

[RJT1979]

1 minute ago, Lightscribe said:

You didn’t. Cafe corner hasn’t been in production since 2011.

You may of seen any of these but they weren’t £60.

https://www.lego.com/en-gb/categories/modular-buildings

Something 90c similar. Slightly different design. 

[feed]

16 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

You didn’t. Cafe corner hasn’t been in production since 2011.

You may of seen any of these but they weren’t £60.

https://www.lego.com/en-gb/categories/modular-buildings

Slightly disingenuous using a 10182.  They don't move in any real numbers. 

75060 maybe be a better more recent example with volume in an active market and plenty of growth potential. 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

I’m just highlighting the fact about rationalising oneself against the financial insanity we face and so far the lunatics keep running the asylum and no one seems to notice.

Agree with that.  To me it's like being banged up.  Some things you have to do, all the rest and what you think are another matter and can help protect you and keep you sane.  And that's the war, they want to break you of that.  To make you Stockholm.  It doesn't amaze me anymore how "they" put people in a box and people's universe and reference point becomes that box.  That they play within that box, or "bravely" kick against the box but from the inside.  TBH, standard stuff.  Play as little of the game as you must and evaluate yourself according to your own.  And win every now and then to remind yourself of the true universe.  And yes, a key area of this thread, whether day to day investing or handling the big one.

[harp]

46 minutes ago, afly said:

Yes I sold 3/4's of my holding last week (after 130% gains admittedly)

I'm struggling to read this market. The increase seems to be because RM have announced they did well at Christmas time. Surely that was obvious given the situation? All seems very reactionary

My postie thinks I’m a genius. He was pissed off when their share price went down just before they were able to sell them. I told him to buy when they got to 200. He thought I was mad. But he did and they fell more! I just said keep buying! Well he’s chuffed now. Tells me it’s still like Christmas time and post offices are rammed. I guess once things go back to “normal” this will tail off and the share price might reflect that? But I think it’s still got room to run higher. Time will tell. 

[sancho panza]

22 hours ago, AWW said:

I do have a small amount of BTC as insurance against it becoming de facto gold.

I've heard the SHTF scenario too. But I fail to see how you would spend BTC in a SHTF scenario. Civilisation needs to be operating near-normally in order for you to have access to the electricity, equipment and connectivity that is required to transact cryptocurrencies. Spending BTC isn't compatible with a SHTF scenario, in my view.

If there are bad people out there taking your gold from you, and BTC has taken on the role of gold, that means extracting your password. I'd much rather have an object that I can give away to satisfy said bad people, than something intangible like a password, because if it's not possible to verify that password right at the point that you give it to them, you can be sure that they'll visit some form of harm on you, to get your attention.

I don't want to offend any BTC fans this is more genreal discussion.I'm neutral personally.Don't own any as I struggle with the concept but accep0t digital will likely arrive.

I think it was @Democorruptcyposted this jeremy Grantham interview.He's long scpeticism in terms of bubbles and the wider marekt,long gold,long renewables(bit too much imho).This is a great interview.His views on BTC were quite forthright.

Some pearls in there

 

 

 

16 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

We are small beer in the grand scheme of things, look at Asia. 

Just some comments on that US stock report:

- It's extremely bullish, we are in the middle of stock build season, and this week last year, stocks rose by over 7 mbpd.

- Total stocks are now just 25m bbl above this time last year.

- Products supplied are a demand proxy, and speak to your point: 

Total products supplied jumped last week, America is opening up. Difference now is 782k bbl, or 96% of demand this time last year, up 650kpbd in a week. Jet fuel jumped as part of that, I must try and find flight tracking data. Gasoline is not increasing, down 401k on last year, but diesel is up on 488k. A lot of car journeys are being taken up via diesel (trucks and trains). All I see is fuel substitution in an efficient market. The UK and Europe to a lesser extent may have lunatics in charge who want to restrict us (illegally) for a while yet, but the rest of the world is going to get on with life. Israel is opening up restriction free travel corridors thank God and Yaweh so they can show up the lockdown fanatics.

All the while in the background the money is not being spent on replacing the natural decline of production. Tick tock, tick tock...

$80 is my target, no idea if it'll go that far. It may crater the economy before reaching that, or maybe all the stimmy money means it won't destroy demand, and continue on.

Edit: I note that oil sold off on that news, as it sometimes does. Could be shorts covering. I would.

I think there's a decent chance of a spike in oil as freedom returns and people take all the trips they haven't for the last year.

I have a good source at the Dept of education saying schools been told they will return on march 8th-not mega high up so we could see the 'workers of the world' manage another few weeks ducking the aerosols in classrooms.

Word is that there's increasing concern about kids mental health(about bloody time),Bozza getting nervous to return at the same pace as the USA no matter what the case rate(as they'll manage the emssaging).Bozza keen to get his Chruchil moment in the Total War on Covid at the same moment as Sleepy Joe.

 

The statement below sums up what best I've learned from you over the last ten months as it's really the key to the price action over the next year ie that demand is easier to bring back online than production

'All the while in the background the money is not being spent on replacing the natural decline of production. Tick tock, tick tock...'