Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

5 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yeah stocks are not following the underlying recently, not quite believing it after recent consolidation.

I think it was in the last podcast I posted but I liked the contextual bit about oil becoming like the tobacco stocks.  Suits me.  Maybe not going anywhere but still a good hold for the income.  And as someone pointed out, there may well be a backlash against the woke narrative as people wake up to things like California couldn't hope to charge all those cars.  People still smoke, and for me, I like my BTUs as does me Harley!

[kibuc]

A rather unexpected impact of covid on the mining industry... or, at least, on one specific company.

"Towards the end of Q1 2021, Tucano experienced disruption in its purchased oxygen supply with scheduled deliveries shipped to Brazil’s hospitals to meet increased demand as a result of COVID-19. Shortages in purchased oxygen supply are expected to decrease recovery rates over the next few months. With the exception of oxygen supply chain issues, mining activities at Tucano continue uninterrupted due to COVID-19."

Now, it's worth remembering we're talking about the Greatest and Pantherest miner in existence, so it might very well be a case of finding a new low in an attempt to explain one's own incompetence. Nevertheless, I found it interesting.

[planit]

42 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I'm tempted to say gold is good for a run here, but I won't . Actually I've noticed a really good sentiment indicator in myself. When something I'm invested leveraged in has completed a long consolidation, I'm apathetic about it, exhausted of it, all sentiment washed out, and had to force myself to hold on. I wish I could be as Zen as DB, Kibuc and others here, but I'm just not made that way.

So gold finally is up decently today, whatever. Wake me up at new ATHs . 

Oil is irritating me too, which could be a good sign. China upping it's buying from Iran has upset the physical market a bit, so my supply calcs are be pushed out a few weeks. There may be another washout, f u oil  but market likes inventory drawdowns. Let's see what next week's inventory says.

 

Regarding Gold I was feeling quite confident a couple of weeks ago as the double bottom looked pretty solid and all commentators were talking about another leg down and they wouldn't pile in until there was an uptrend formed.

Now there has been a breakout I am hoping these momentum investors will have a sign to pile in.

(I was lucky with the TSG buyout and recycled into CEY and POLY)

 

Regarding oil I was feeling the same as you so yesterday I spent a few hours going through BP which I believe is really undervalued only to find this article which came to exactly the same conclusions

BP's Financial Strength Is Being Underappreciated

Basically reaching the debt target 3 quarters early looks really positive 

On top of that when you look at the BP presentation you come up with a share buyback figure between $5bn and $7bn if oil prices stay at this level for the year (which is 7-10% of shares in issue).

Perhaps it won't work out like that but this is what BP themselves said before the debt update and I assume they were being slightly cautious. There is also the chance they will continue to outperform and oil prices get pushed higher.

I am completely over-invested here so I hope I am right.

 

The drag I put down to the fast rise in Covid cases in certain countries like India. I am waiting for world cases to stop rising (See graph https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) as that could be the trigger for confidence to return.

[NogintheNog]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Id rather not see them taken over ,the company means a lot to me in many ways.Then again i think the split up then takeover value is £18+ a share,maybe £20+ ,government wont like it though.

I worked for Beechams back in the early 80's, and the management were bloody awful! So maybe they all got to keep the management jobs in the merger!

I'd be very happy with £18 a share value, I have a fairly large chunk of my ISA portfolio in both GSK and AZN, plus PFE just for good measure.

55 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yeah stocks are not following the underlying recently, not quite believing it after recent consolidation.

I agree, I did sell a chunk of RDSB a few weeks back (which is unlike me) and caught the mini top @£15.15. It was only a small chunk at £3400 up from £2000, and tempted to buy back but I have plenty more of it bought at higher prices... Doh!

I do wonder with the oil stocks if the market senses to much being spent on the new 'green' initiatives by the likes of BP and Shell???

[Hardhat]

14 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

I do wonder with the oil stocks if the market senses to much being spent on the new 'green' initiatives by the likes of BP and Shell???

I just think people still remember the huge plunge from a year ago and are wary. Added to that, most newer investors are likely to buy Tesla or Apple rather than an oil major. Sentiment.

[NogintheNog]

All my metals looking good today. I think America looks weak though with the current round of news. Pulling out of Afghanistan after 20 years of toil and American lives sacrificed. Not sure what they've achieved other than leaving a dangerously unstable country, like the one they entered 20 years ago!

Meanwhile Russia builds up its forces in the Crimea, and China ignores the rest of the World with regards to Hong Kong and the Uyghurs.

Was globalisation a good idea???

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Apricot cake today from the bead maker.  Very nice!  How I like it, no sugar and more olive oil than butter!  I did some work for GSK on the retail stuff.  Liked the people, not the management stuff, and it felt a bit like my dad used to talk about Marconi.  Some real value there though.  Just may be better plays out there in the bigger world.  People really need to be thinking about looking wide and far these days.

PS: Recipe please?!

Very skilful there @Harley, talking appliances/recipes whilst keeping it on topic with stocks...very impressed! :-) :-) :-)

[Harley]

20 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

Pulling out of Afghanistan.....

Just like the Russians and the Brits before them! 

[Harley]

Having japped on about value, etc and the general state of things monetary, I've been switched on to some emerging internet stuff about how to survive the Great Reset.  In Elizabeth Kuber Ross terms, maybe I've moved on to the Bargaining phase.  It's all pioneering stuff with scare porn and paid for newsletters but worth a crawl through the internet to get envisioning.  One thing I liked was the idea of a bifurcated setup where the Central Bank crypto coins are transactional but absolutely not a store of value while those who managed to hold onto their wealth reverted to other crypto, PMs, property, shares in the picks and shovels (Coinbase?!), etc.  Good time to map out the "to be" setup and a transition plan.  Clock's ticking!

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

A rather unexpected impact of covid on the mining industry... or, at least, on one specific company.

"Towards the end of Q1 2021, Tucano experienced disruption in its purchased oxygen supply with scheduled deliveries shipped to Brazil’s hospitals to meet increased demand as a result of COVID-19. Shortages in purchased oxygen supply are expected to decrease recovery rates over the next few months. With the exception of oxygen supply chain issues, mining activities at Tucano continue uninterrupted due to COVID-19."

Now, it's worth remembering we're talking about the Greatest and Pantherest miner in existence, so it might very well be a case of finding a new low in an attempt to explain one's own incompetence. Nevertheless, I found it interesting.

I still have an allocation . The Panther may be a little worse for wear and oxygen starved from contracting Covid, but it will pounce back, mark my words! ⚡️ 🐆 💰 

[Bobthebuilder]

3 hours ago, leonardratso said:

but it definately came in on lloyds isa (rebadged halifax).

Hi Leo. How do you find that Haliwide platform? I have one that was originally a TD Waterhouse , terrible platform IMO. Limited funds, ETFs, very bad real time data ADR's don't seem to ever move.

I have all my dogs in mine, Scottish play etc. Alas, dear Panther the great I knew him well. Just the fact its free is why I'm still there, but £46 a year plus £9 trades from next April. I will be moving the pets to a new dog house.

[Castlevania]

44 minutes ago, Harley said:

Just like the Russians and the Brits before them! 

I flew over parts of Afghanistan on a flight. I sat and stared at the mountain ranges. You don’t win wars in such a place.

[Cosmic]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

In other news, something that made me smile.....

Colin versus Cuthbert as M&S declares caterpillar cake war on Aldi

£1.12 versus 80p per 100g

If I could, I'd love to do a taste test!

What about ASDAs Clyde the Caterpillar? ASDA too much for M&S to take on?

[Harley]

2 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

What about ASDAs Clyde the Caterpillar? ASDA too much for M&S to take on?

I'm sorely tempted to travel far and wide to do a taste test and report back!  Sorry, this has nothing to do with investing.....no wait.....I see M&S still not paying a div.  No wonder if eveyone's taking the Colin!  They've been rumbled?  

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

Apricot cake today from the bead maker.  Very nice!  How I like it, no sugar and more olive oil than butter!  I did some work for GSK on the retail stuff.  Liked the people, not the management stuff, and it felt a bit like my dad used to talk about Marconi.  Some real value there though.  Just may be better plays out there in the bigger world.  People really need to be thinking about looking wide and far these days.

PS: Recipe please?!

 

[DurhamBorn]

I hope Bp stays down a while and they can use cashflow to buy back shares from woke funds around this price or lower.The more they can buy now the better.Its at least 60% for buy backs,so i hope as long as the stock is below £4 they use the other 40% to buy back stock as well.They can pay down more debt once there is a £4 handle on the shares.I hope they dont use the extra 40% on more green stuff though.I want all the woke funds out,i dont want any hanging around to make money later.Its all sentiment at the moment.

 

[Ashby]

Email I received today from an online shoe seller; more evidence of inflation (I suppose rather than just greed).  This time expensive Northampton shoes.

Church Brand Repositioning

 

We have just been informed that Church Shoes Ltd have decided to increase their prices to reposition their brand at a higher price point. As a simple example, in the UK the price of Consul, a black calf, toe-cap Oxford will increase from the current price of £495 to £720.

To say we were shocked to see this announcement on Monday would be an understatement. We have worked closely with the brand for decades and had no prior warning that this was happening so we are genuinely struggling to understand the thinking behind this strategy and the implications this will have for us as a retailer of the brand going forward.

[sleepwello'nights]

30 minutes ago, Ashby said:

Email I received today from an online shoe seller; more evidence of inflation (I suppose rather than just greed).  This time expensive Northampton shoes.

Church Brand Repositioning

 

We have just been informed that Church Shoes Ltd have decided to increase their prices to reposition their brand at a higher price point. As a simple example, in the UK the price of Consul, a black calf, toe-cap Oxford will increase from the current price of £495 to £720.

To say we were shocked to see this announcement on Monday would be an understatement. We have worked closely with the brand for decades and had no prior warning that this was happening so we are genuinely struggling to understand the thinking behind this strategy and the implications this will have for us as a retailer of the brand going forward.

They were a high end brand in any case that price hike, almost 50%, can't be justified on raw material, labour cost and overhead inflationary increases. Just as well I've accumulated several pairs over the years. They wear well and when they are repaired they come back looking like new. 

Brand repositioning indeed? Looks to me as if they are going to reduce volume and want to maintain or increase profitability with a much smaller scale operation.  

[wherebee]

2 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

They were a high end brand in any case that price hike, almost 50%, can't be justified on raw material, labour cost and overhead inflationary increases. Just as well I've accumulated several pairs over the years. They wear well and when they are repaired they come back looking like new. 

Brand repositioning indeed? Looks to me as if they are going to reduce volume and want to maintain or increase profitability with a much smaller scale operation.  

i've posted on here before about my RM Williams aussie boots.  I have pairs well over 10 years old, still going stong.  600 bucks new now, but that's 60 bucks a year at most, and they are a joy to wear.  They were the only thing I had on my feet for a two month crisscrossing of a country a few years back, through snow, sun, and dust, and they came out fine.

 

in shoes, paying for quality is worth it.  

[leonardratso]

5 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Hi Leo. How do you find that Haliwide platform? I have one that was originally a TD Waterhouse , terrible platform IMO. Limited funds, ETFs, very bad real time data ADR's don't seem to ever move.

I have all my dogs in mine, Scottish play etc. Alas, dear Panther the great I knew him well. Just the fact its free is why I'm still there, but £46 a year plus £9 trades from next April. I will be moving the pets to a new dog house.

its actually not bad, i  have a gia and an isa in lloyds share dealing,  £20 platform fee for 6 months, or is it 12 i cant rmember, £12 a trade going down to £8 if you do more than 7 a quarter i think, but i do the regular investing for £1.50 a buy instead, only covers UK shares/funds on regular investor, either a 1 off or on a schedule. 4 buy points a month offered.

Foreign/fx fees isnt anything to write home about but range is not bad.

t212 i use for fast buys and wider range, but dont trust its longevity as much.

[Harley]

5 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Looks to me as if they are going to reduce volume and want to maintain or increase profitability with a much smaller scale operation.  

Exactly what I was thinking in my earlier post on inflation.  A polarised market.  A move by some to focus on the quality of earnings.

[Harley]

9 hours ago, Harley said:

Having japped on about value, etc and the general state of things monetary, I've been switched on to some emerging internet stuff about how to survive the Great Reset.  In Elizabeth Kuber Ross terms, maybe I've moved on to the Bargaining phase.  It's all pioneering stuff with scare porn and paid for newsletters but worth a crawl through the internet to get envisioning.  One thing I liked was the idea of a bifurcated setup where the Central Bank crypto coins are transactional but absolutely not a store of value while those who managed to hold onto their wealth reverted to other crypto, PMs, property, shares in the picks and shovels (Coinbase?!), etc.  Good time to map out the "to be" setup and a transition plan.  Clock's ticking.

Looks like @201p is already on the case and deserves more traction/support:

I like the link in his opening post that the Great Reset might already have happened!  Makes you do a 180 and exercise some mental agility!

The thread deserves more attention and a far larger discussion than just about Bitcoin.  It all works for me and my "burning building" metaphor. 

Maybe our BK is a distraction in the bigger picture or is a key part (milestone) of the bigger picture.  Again, context is everything as prepping for the BK might look a bit different.

We are in danger of thinking walking with a red flag in front of this threatening new horseless carriage will be sufficient.

[Barnsey]

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

The thread deserves more attention and a far larger discussion than just about Bitcoin.  It all works for me and my "burning building" metaphor. 

Maybe our BK is a distraction in the bigger picture or is a key part (milestone) of the bigger picture.  Again, context is everything as prepping for the BK might look a bit different.

We are in danger of thinking walking with a red flag in front of this threatening new horseless carriage will be sufficient.

That’s exactly it Harley. It’s what I’ve been trying to allude to on this thread for some time (probably not very clearly on my part) whilst trying not to derail it into a crypto thread. This is the catalyst that will enable the next stage.

I notice in the other thread you ask

‘So far the conversation has been very crypto centric which is reasonable but there must be more to the "to be" world in terms of other stores of value.’

The answer is yes, so much more than a store of value or currency. AI and the government blockchains will form the fabric of society from living, manufacturing, agriculture, transport as well as transactions. Hence the 4th industrial revolution.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/regulation-for-the-fourth-industrial-revolution/regulation-for-the-fourth-industrial-revolution

We are currently in the dot com stage before the bust. Much of the crypto space is filled with shitcoins/tokens that are pump and dump clones of others which 99% of will disappear through the BK crash and regulation. But like the dot com they’ll be the Amazons and Apple in there that will come out the other side and be part of the technology and infrastructure that’s to come.

https://www.swift.com/sites/default/files/documents/swift_events_infopaper_distributed_ledgers_smart_contracts_business_standards_and_iso_20022.pdf

[sleepwello'nights]

11 hours ago, Castlevania said:

I flew over parts of Afghanistan on a flight. I sat and stared at the mountain ranges. You don’t win wars in such a place.

Exactly. The Wind and the Sun were both looking down at a traveller on his journey. He was wearing a coat. The Wind said to the Sun lets see which of us can get him to take his coat off. OK said the Sun.

The Wind threw a strong gust at the man, he pulled his coat tight and carried on, undaunted the Wind blew up a fierce storm, the man drew his coat even tighter to him and carried on. Its my turn said the Sun and he started gently warming the weather, the traveller relaxed and loosened his grip on his coat, the Sun continued to shine down on the man, the warmth was so pleasant the traveller took off his coat. 

A different strategy to direct force is needed in that country, economic dependence that benefits the populace rather than direct force or lining the pockets of those with power and control.