Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Yup, because of the vastness of what this topic covers, everyone tends to cumulate around here (like standing in the kitchen at house parties and bbqs ) It’s a victim of its own success.

Obviously the major upside of this is that a range of people from all backgrounds and specialisms brings a bit of knowledge to the table. This helps everyone decide on their own individual financial strategy (DYOR) to suit each personal circumstance and prepare for whatever life throws at us.

The downside is that information can get lost amongst all the buzz and that we’d have to rename the thread Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come * plus dustbin raiding, yellow sticker reduced shopping, pizza making, spare part hoarding, below spot physical silver buying, rare lego set selling, crypto investing and general preparing for the apocalypse mega thread. 

 

The thread seems to be refreshingly self regulating, so i don't mind the occasion little tangents it goes on. It's generally either amusing or informative

[jamtomorrow]

7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Worth a full watch as ever.But from 15 minutes,he begins the 'Road to Serfdom' and it's utterly compelling.

Basement dwellers are familair with the theme of how FUBAR the West is,but this really spells it out for simpeltons like me.

 

And right on cue ...

 

[Loki]

INFRASTRATA AWARDED CONTRACT ON SCOTLAND WIND FARM PROJECT
(Sharecast News) - Infrastructure and physical asset management company InfraStrata has been awarded a contract by Saipem for the fabrication and load-out of eight wind turbine generator jacket foundations for the EDF Renewables and ESB Energy-owned Neart na Gaoithe offshore wind farm project in Scotland's outer Firth of Forth, it announced on Friday.
The AIM-traded firm said the contract value was around £26m, was binding, and contained contractual conditions and obligations on both parties.

It said the contract schedule would start on 1 July.

The works for fabrication, consolidation and load-out of the eight wind turbine generator jacket foundations would primarily be conducted at Harland and Wolff's newly-acquired Methil facilities in Scotland.

If there was an opportunity to further optimise the works programme and make the contract more cost-effective, the company said itself and Saipem would work jointly to spread additional work streams within the contract across the firm's three other sites at Belfast, Arnish and Appledore.

"I believe that this contract paves the way for the execution and delivery of future fabrication contracts, a significant number of which are currently in advanced negotiations," said chief executive officer John Wood.

"The geographical proximity of our Methil facility to the North Sea makes it an ideal site for fabrication and load-out to wind farm projects such as this.

"More importantly, it validates our strategic vision of expanding the group's fabrication footprint into regions that are strategically located within close proximity to major wind farm projects."

Wood said that would enable the company to spread work streams across its facilities to drive down costs, deliver against tight schedules, and align ourselves to the government's goal of providing wind-generated power to all UK homes by 2030.

"I am confident that this is only the beginning of a stream of projects in our pipeline that we expect to come to fruition.

"We are hugely excited about the massive potential that this first contract has unlocked, and we look forward to working with Saipem to successfully deliver under it."

[Viceroy]

He’s followed by lots of peeps we know like Kaplan, Alden etc. Reassuring

[DoINeedOne]

On 01/04/2021 at 14:31, DoINeedOne said:

Done should work code will check INFL holdings page at 12:00 everyday and let me know of any changes

Just a update, every other day its detecting changes but only small percentage changes nothing to major i will only post when there's big changes percentage wise or companies added or removed

Current changes are around 0.5% average changes in some  of the names 

For example there cash was 0.52% its moved to 1.04%

[Starsend]

Little note to everybody regarding Hargreaves Cuntsdown.

Just having a mooch about on their platform checking that my dividends were being automatically reinvested. They were, at a default minimum of £10 with a commission of 1% or £1 (minimum). Now I have a fair few small dividends come in from small holdings in gold/silver miners in particular. I've had dividends coming in for £10, HL then buy a couple more shares and charge me the minimum of £1 - 10% of the transaction. Imagine what that does to your portfolio value over a long period of time - and to their profits.

I changed the minimums to £100 for my ISA and my SIPP. That way you'll pay 1% commission rather than 10%.

[DoINeedOne]

7 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Little note to everybody regarding Hargreaves Cuntsdown.

Just having a mooch about on their platform checking that my dividends were being automatically reinvested. They were, at a default minimum of £10 with a commission of 1% or £1 (minimum). Now I have a fair few small dividends come in from small holdings in gold/silver miners in particular. I've had dividends coming in for £10, HL then buy a couple more shares and charge me the minimum of £1 - 10% of the transaction. Imagine what that does to your portfolio value over a long period of time - and to their profits.

I changed the minimums to £100 for my ISA and my SIPP. That way you'll pay 1% commission rather than 10%.

Personally i just let them build up in my account then reinvest or buy something else when they are a decent amount

[wherebee]

45 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Personally i just let them build up in my account then reinvest or buy something else when they are a decent amount

me too, but only because I don't have any investments where taking shares has a tax benefit.  I think dutch shell is one example where if you reinvest divvies as a US investor, you avoid tax.

[M S E Refugee]

 

[invalid]

It seems my last few posts have all been anecdotes, so lets continue with yet another inflation based one.

Had a take away for dinner from a place that we have been going to for the last ten years. It's a once every few months treat, not the cheapest but the food tastes good.

We get the same order every time so the price is well known. Last time a few months back it was £37 this time £45.

New owners. As we have seen many times locally, new owners = cost cutting and shit food.

This was cost cutting and putting prices up. We had an old menu and compared the new menu, most dishes, even the cheaper things like rice were all +£1. And it was all crap. most likely all bought in from the wholesaler.

I don't mind paying for good food but it seems lately you just can't get it.

So this has given me even more incentive to cook at home more. The egg fried rice (thanks @DurhamBorn) has become a regular and next up I need to look into a decent satay sauce for chicken - any tips appreciated!

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, invalid said:

It seems my last few posts have all been anecdotes, so lets continue with yet another inflation based one.

Had a take away for dinner from a place that we have been going to for the last ten years. It's a once every few months treat, not the cheapest but the food tastes good.

We get the same order every time so the price is well known. Last time a few months back it was £37 this time £45.

New owners. As we have seen many times locally, new owners = cost cutting and shit food.

This was cost cutting and putting prices up. We had an old menu and compared the new menu, most dishes, even the cheaper things like rice were all +£1. And it was all crap. most likely all bought in from the wholesaler.

I don't mind paying for good food but it seems lately you just can't get it.

So this has given me even more incentive to cook at home more. The egg fried rice (thanks @DurhamBorn) has become a regular and next up I need to look into a decent satay sauce for chicken - any tips appreciated!

This is the one all the chinese takeaways use ,you only need a small amount then some water 

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Jimmys-Saté-Sauce-360-g/dp/B00AYY6VMS

If you find a good Chinese supermarket you can get it in there cheaper.What i do now is go now and again and stock up on all the sauces,pearl river soy sauces etc.There is a big one in Stockton about 16 miles away so i spend about £50 and stock up.Lidl have really good egg noodles in though,they ar 49p a pack,its the chinese style egg noodles you want.Each pack has 3 portions,and Home Bargains has Himalaya premium long grain rice for £1.29 a bag,worth the bit extra because its fantastic quality.My egg fried rice dishes are fantastic now,and work out about £2 for both of us instead of £14 from the takeaway.

In other news,

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/04/17/blue-wall-mayor-bids-create-super-port/

[Lightscribe]

Canada UBI incoming or glitch? 

 

 

[JMD]

On 16/04/2021 at 14:43, Harley said:

Sounds good.  What worries me about this thread is we talk about making money but only keeping it in terms of the current failing system (e.g. inflation).  We are trying to play (with good intent) the very thing that contains the seeds of our destruction.  But we must do this, we must push on as best we can.  But then this thread cannot take on all the problems of the world.  Life is a never-ending series of hurdles.  How many do we wish to cover here?  To me, I can't help thinking the current "all quiet on the financial front" is because the Treasury and co are busily tunneling under us with an almost imminent mother of all shock and awe where a crater will replace our life savings once the dust has settled!  We need to start preparing for that now as well as deal with the immediate task in hand.  It's a tough gig.

Harley, sorry to maybe ask a thick question, but your post uses dramatic imagery, so i am wondering if your immediate investment thesis has changed in a similarly stark way? So in terms of that 'tough gig' scenario you allude to, do you intend to push on and continue investing in the stock market, attending and playing at these mainstream gigs (manipulated exchanges, etc)... or are you now venturing further afield, off-road and experimental? Also what's your timing on the final 'mic drop moment'!! (excuse my puns/imagery), ie monetary collapse, etc... I'm thinking you are still ostensibly in agreement with the thread, of say 2028+?                                                           You said you'd prefer the substance of this particular topic and it's debate to happen on the other thread begun by @201p, and I understand your reason why - it's a complicated minefield to navigate after all. So will definitely visit there to continue the debate, but if you could clarify that would also be great.

[M S E Refugee]

David Hunter

 

@DaveHcontrarian

 

 

There are a lot of calls for a market correction here.While we can see a 3-4% pullback at anytime,what I see is a market poised for its steepest rally yet.We are in the final parabolic run to the top. In the weeks ahead we'll see a sprint to the finish.S&P to 4700 & NASDAQ 17,000

 

3:19 PM · Apr 18, 2021·Twitter Web App

[Harley]

5 hours ago, JMD said:

Harley, sorry to maybe ask a thick question, but your post uses dramatic imagery, so i am wondering if your immediate investment thesis has changed in a similarly stark way? So in terms of that 'tough gig' scenario you allude to, do you intend to push on and continue investing in the stock market, attending and playing at these mainstream gigs (manipulated exchanges, etc)... or are you now venturing further afield, off-road and experimental? Also what's your timing on the final 'mic drop moment'!! (excuse my puns/imagery), ie monetary collapse, etc... I'm thinking you are still ostensibly in agreement with the thread, of say 2028+?                                                           You said you'd prefer the substance of this particular topic and it's debate to happen on the other thread begun by @201p, and I understand your reason why - it's a complicated minefield to navigate after all. So will definitely visit there to continue the debate, but if you could clarify that would also be great.

Apologies if I'm being a bit disruptive.  TBH, I find it very hard thinking anyone takes any notice of me! 

Here's what's up - I am worried about my hard earned and fear something bad is going to happen.  I need to motivate myself to go against the inertia and do something about it.  I'm a bit weak at follow through sometimes, especially if I have spent time on the upstream problem statement.  I need to force myself to raise the priority and do something given all the competing demands on my time and the sheer width of the problem.  Plus, I had a personal Eureka moment on stuff so am probably behaving like Eureka did back then too!

Like everything, I hope to do a bit of everything.  I have no religion, no need to be right, I just want to be left alone and free so will diversify and prudently play all the possible outcomes.  So no, I'm still in (to a point) but that's just part of a bigger game to be played.

Regarding dates, I wait for the data, not dates.  Dates are an interesting stake in the ground but nothing else. and I would never blindly follow such things.  I don't have to.  My expectation though is something I could do without may well happen sooner, regardless of what happens in 2028+.

I've probably reached peak post having got my outlook and approach sorted so should hopefully quietly drop off into execution mode.  Apologies for the interruption, may normal service resume! 

[Harley]

5 hours ago, PrincessDrac said:

China - Gold Link

Might see Gold tick up next week.

Hope not.  I was going to buy Friday.  I really need to execute quicker. 

[DoINeedOne]

Interesting video about Nordstream 2 its pretty much done apparently

Think the funniest part was the US sanction on the construction ship fews day later it just carried on as normal

 

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

Apologies if I'm being a bit disruptive.  TBH, I find it very hard thinking anyone takes any notice of me! 

Here's what's up - I am worried about my hard earned and fear something bad is going to happen.  I need to motivate myself to go against the inertia and do something about it.  I'm a bit weak at follow through sometimes, especially if I have spent time on the upstream problem statement.  I need to force myself to raise the priority and do something given all the competing demands on my time and the sheer width of the problem.  Plus, I had a personal Eureka moment on stuff so am probably behaving like Eureka did back then too!

Like everything, I hope to do a bit of everything.  I have no religion, no need to be right, I just want to be left alone and free so will diversify and prudently play all the possible outcomes.  So no, I'm still in (to a point) but that's just part of a bigger game to be played.

Regarding dates, I wait for the data, not dates.  Dates are an interesting stake in the ground but nothing else. and I would never blindly follow such things.  I don't have to.  My expectation though is something I could do without may well happen sooner, regardless of what happens in 2028+.

I've probably reached peak post having got my outlook and approach sorted so should hopefully quietly drop off into execution mode.  Apologies for the interruption, may normal service resume! 

Disruptive?... not at all, in fact I personally like disruptive ideas - such concepts and thoughts gleamed from you and others on here have enabled me to make much progress in sorting out my portfolio over the previous couple years. Having said that Harley, diversification and asset allocation into uncorrelated assets (a performance 'free lunch' some call it), are for me crucial aspects of portfolio construction - areas I'm always keen to learn more about - so if I'm reading your posts correctly Harley, I will be very disappointed (in a totally selfish way you understand!!) if you won't be posting too much in future.                                                                                                  ...As for 'taking notice', I know you enjoy your crypics Harley... anyway suffice to say when you mention 'eureka', I do note that it was Archimedes who exclaimed eureka after solving his tricky gold ('store of value' theme?) assaying problem... hmm very intriguing, but I shan't pry further, 'nuff said already. (btw no such thing as reaching peak oil, or for that matter 'peak post'!!)

[Green Devil]

 

Definately worth a watch if you have a spare 1h18mins.

Prob the smartest guy in the room. 

[Nomad]

I see house prices are still going up, crazy. Where I live on the south coast, they seem to be sold within weeks of being put on the market. Now more fuel is being added to the fire by lenders re introducing 95% mortgages, won't be long before we see the 120% mortgage returning (link is from a 2011 article).

https://www.lovemoney.com/news/11068/the-new-120-mortgage

Is this madness ever going to stop?

[M S E Refugee]

Sold half of my holdings today.

I think I would rather be early leaving the party than trying to time it.

David Hunter has been on fire, I just hope my FOMO isn't too bad when the melt up starts.

I'm still holding onto my Gold and Silver Miners.

[Hancock]

28 minutes ago, Nomad said:

I see house prices are still going up, crazy. Where I live on the south coast, they seem to be sold within weeks of being put on the market. Now more fuel is being added to the fire by lenders re introducing 95% mortgages, won't be long before we see the 120% mortgage returning (link is from a 2011 article).

https://www.lovemoney.com/news/11068/the-new-120-mortgage

Is this madness ever going to stop?

I think the SDLT holiday has brought many purchases forward. Once it end there will be tumbleweed running through the property market ... assisted by the end of furlough and high unemployment.

I see govt have started the 95% mortgage scam today, which is such a gift after making house price £15k more expensive in a year.

How the fuck anyone who wants something close to free markets and a decent society can vote Tory is beyond logic.

[Fully Detached]

11 minutes ago, Nomad said:

I see house prices are still going up, crazy. Where I live on the south coast, they seem to be sold within weeks of being put on the market. Now more fuel is being added to the fire by lenders re introducing 95% mortgages, won't be long before we see the 120% mortgage returning (link is from a 2011 article).

https://www.lovemoney.com/news/11068/the-new-120-mortgage

Is this madness ever going to stop?

IMO no, not until we reach total collapse or a debt jubilee, one of which I am sure is unavoidable.

I am prepared about as well as I can be for total collapse, it's the debt jubilee that has me head scratching at present. Knowing the taste governments have for total control of the populace, I cannot see debt forgiveness being given without some sort of trade off. If that's the case, I imagine they would attempt to sucker as many people in as possible (95% mortgages?) before kicking away the supports and leaving as many people as possible desperate for some of that State Daddy support. In exchange for say, an implanted microchip or something, I don't know.

Paranoid perhaps yes. But about 3 days into lockdown 1.0 last year I realised that the reaction to covid was vastly more severe than the risk of the virus. Since then I have seen nothing to change that view and everything to support it. The bastards are up to something, I am sure of that.

So debt jubilee - presumably means that house prices revert to what people can afford to pay for them with cash. If we have any left, that is.

[JMD]

44 minutes ago, Fully Detached said:

IMO no, not until we reach total collapse or a debt jubilee, one of which I am sure is unavoidable.

I am prepared about as well as I can be for total collapse, it's the debt jubilee that has me head scratching at present. Knowing the taste governments have for total control of the populace, I cannot see debt forgiveness being given without some sort of trade off. If that's the case, I imagine they would attempt to sucker as many people in as possible (95% mortgages?) before kicking away the supports and leaving as many people as possible desperate for some of that State Daddy support. In exchange for say, an implanted microchip or something, I don't know.

Paranoid perhaps yes. But about 3 days into lockdown 1.0 last year I realised that the reaction to covid was vastly more severe than the risk of the virus. Since then I have seen nothing to change that view and everything to support it. The bastards are up to something, I am sure of that.

So debt jubilee - presumably means that house prices revert to what people can afford to pay for them with cash. If we have any left, that is.

Yes, they - the government - are up to many things. But they don't need to 'implant that microchip' you  mention, after all most of us are already surgically attached to our phones!                                                              I regularly watch Click - the BBC tech program. It's actually a good roundup of trends - if you watch using the right 'filters'!! - but do need to endure the irritating  presenters and the focus on games. Anyway last edition had a segment on Covid passports, and evan dared raise the controversial subject of civil liberties. However the scary bit was when it reported that despite the government repeated denials over wanting such a passport scheme, it has in fact had running 8 separate projects!!!,, whith some having begun a year ago if I recall correctly. They showed some of the tech... mostly phone app based, but with some incorporating face recognition and other biometrics. The project interviewees, of course, framed their answers in terms of it really being mostly about international travel security?!?

[planit]

40 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

EIA projections, like all of them, are always wrong, and just revised retrospectively. I trend to look at the trend of revisions for guidance, and the trend I've seen in 2021 so far is that they've switched from revising demand down to up. I've recently being trying to do some DD on shale, as much as I can from 5000 miles away. What I can tell you is:

- All major basins apart from the Permian are dropping steadily, and will continue to drop into the year end at current rig numbers.

- They are are piling most new rigs into the Permian. This is the biggest and least mature basin, the bedrock of shale production if you pardon the pun. It's about half of the total, so the whole story hinges here.

- More specifically, they are piling into the New Mexico part of the Permian. The Texas side is looking like it will decline into year end, which is to me very significant. If they are high grading and chasing the best bits, they don't see them in Texas. The NM side is smaller in area. Here is a heat map of activity:

 

Thanks for the effort you have gone to here CP, this fits in with the FT article which implies supply will fall pretty steeply once they have extracted the easy oil 

Here is the link again for anyone that missed it US oil drillers ‘dying on the vine’ on funding drought

 

I read the OIES April report and they list available spare capacity all over the world that can be made available over the next 2 years. Iran for example it still lists as 1.5mbpd available (after 0.5mbpd China sales) but this seems much higher than other commentaries I have read recently which put it at 0.5mbpd.

The report doesn't have oil demand to 2019 levels until end of 2022 but this is almost entirely due to western countries not using aviation fuel (so they don't expect a big holiday spending spree next year). China demand is already higher than 2019 (prediction is 1.5mbpd higher than 2019 at end of year). India is predicted to have a slower recovery (which looks certain with Covid cases at the moment) and predicted to be +0.5mbpd at end of 2022.

They have supply currently at 9mbpd of spare capacity, hopefully this is overly optimistic as CP points out

Saudi 4m

UAE 1m

Iraq 1m

Rest OPEC 1.3m

NON-OPEC+ 2.2m

They also have 4m off the market due to geopolitical reasons (Venezuela and Iran = 3.7m of that)

They have current supply at 92.5mbpd

The report paints the impression that there is loads of available supply (92.5+9+4 = 105.5mbpd) to cover demand going forwards.

Most countries around the world are desperate for cash and I can't think of a reason why they wouldn't be producing as much as possible at current prices (outside OPEC+). Perhaps they are ramping back up after the cuts last year but the report implies its more like supply can be switched on or off.