Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Froggy2000]

8 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Hi @froggy if you search my name within this thread I asked and others answered this....it was about 3-6 months ago.

Thanks.  Will have a look!

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, Froggy2000 said:

Thanks CV.  Is there any differences with withholding taxes?  Can we avoid them by using the LSE listing?

None. It’s a Canadian company, so Canadian withholding taxes apply.

[HousePriceMania]

 

[Castlevania]

59 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Do you understand German witholding tax .I notice it says 15% with treaty so i guess divi from Telefonica D would see a 15% tax,but it also says 10% for valid pension scheme,so im wondering if in a SIPP it would be zero.Most brokers are a nightmare trying to get these answers from.

Notice today Telefonica D is up 3.5% among the big falls everywhere,and @sancho panza coma scores top rated have outperformed the sector since he put them up.I own a lot of BT,but sold a small tranche at 2.04p and added to other money into Telefonica D and Brasil and an outperformance since.Seem like a very useful tool in broad sectors,even just to use to maybe slice ones that have ran and the score has dropped and increase or open new positions in ones that rate top 4 in the scores.

Expect to pay the highest rate, and then be pleasantly surprised if lower

[ONC]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Insane move:

In other news, funny how these warnings are now coming out once the economy is back on its feet. I'll say it again, crypto was allowed to run to act as a volatility sponge (truck run off ramp analogy).

 

David Hunter Called this move very well.

Especially at the time the 10year was at 1.75% and everybody saw it moving a lot higher, he called 1.2%

 

 

 

 

 

[Loki]

Quote

 

Shell and Deutsche Telekom agree to advance digital innovation in pursuit of climate goals

8 July, 2021

Memorandum of understanding signed to accelerate transitions to net zero

Shell supplies renewable energy to T-Mobile US

Deutsche Telekom engineers to install more than 10,000 electric vehicle chargers in Germany

The Shell Gas & Power Developments BV (Shell) and T-Systems International GmbH (T-Systems), Deutsche Telekom's corporate customers arm, have signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to advance digital innovation as both companies accelerate their transitions to net-zero emissions.

The MOU builds on an existing technological relationship between Shell and T-Systems. Under the terms of the agreement the two companies will:
Pursue the net-zero goals of both companies, their supply chains and customers Collaborate on innovations and services to accelerate Shell’s digital transformation

Work together to identify opportunities to co-invest and participate in new business models focused on the decarbonisation of society

To accelerate the transition to net zero, Shell is supplying renewable energy to T-Systems sister company, T-Mobile US, which is working towards a goal of operating on 100% renewable energy by the end of 2021.

In turn, NewMotion and ubitricity, subsidiaries of Shell which provide electric vehicle (EV) charging solutions across Europe, have awarded T-Systems a contract for Deutsche Telekom field engineers to install more than 10,000 EV chargers in Germany over the next three years.

The collaboration on innovations and services, reflected in the renewed global master services agreement entered into between Shell and T-Systems in 2020, will see Shell’s current Dynamic Hosting Services solution replaced with the next version of Private Cloud.

Both companies will also aim to deepen their IT products and service capabilities and explore new areas of digital innovation, including Hybrid and Edge Computing, which are different forms of data storage, as well as 5G connectivity. Shell has also installed immersion cooling technology for greater computing and energy efficiency in one of the T-Systems data centres in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

Deutsche Telekom and Shell are also exploring the viability of smart city solutions, aimed at helping cities decarbonise and providing aggregated city data. For example, “Citykey”, which could deliver EV-charging and mobility data on an easy-to-use app. The two companies are also exploring the potential of smart lighting projects with streetlight-based EV-charging possibilities.

“We are delighted to deepen our relationship with Deutsche Telekom and help the company to pursue its net-zero pledge while progressing our own target to be a net-zero emissions energy business by 2050, in step with society,” said Elisabeth Brinton, Executive Vice President Renewables & Energy Solutions at Shell. “Getting society to net zero will require unprecedented levels of collaboration.”

Adel Al-Saleh, Deutsche Telekom board member and CEO of T-Systems, said: “We are committed to acting responsibly along our entire value chain and working together with our clients is pivotal in this. No individual and no company can solve the climate challenge alone. This is why we have put sustainability at the core of our strategy as we aim to become the leading European full IT-service provider. This newly signed MOU allows Shell and Deutsche Telekom to leverage their long-term collaboration, teaming up in new areas that will benefit society.”

 

 

 

Oilies, telecoms, climate wank, society "benefits" it's got it all!

[planit]

US Crude draw was 6.9mb which continues the current trend

Oil Prices Rise As EIA Data Beats Expectations

 

 

I modified the graph they produce to remove last years unusual stock increases (the 2021 grey area on the right now matches the 2020 one to the left).

 

Unless there is a lot of crude on its way to the US the graph will look interesting in 2 weeks time.

 

Crude imports don't seem to be ramping up to make up the shortfall either:

[HousePriceMania]

Is this significant ?

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/wells-fargo-credit/wells-fargo-to-close-all-personal-lines-of-credit-cnbc-idUSL3N2OK3GO

 

"Wells Fargo to close all personal lines of credit - CNBC"

"Customers have been given a 60-day notice that their accounts will be shuttered, according to the report."

 

Should I start shorting stuff ?

[reformed nice guy]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

 

 

Oilies, telecoms, climate wank, society "benefits" it's got it all!

I now know the cynicism that soviet citizens must have felt when they were told their potato ration was cut again as the last sacrifice needed (again) to bring about utopian communism.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Is this significant ?

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/wells-fargo-credit/wells-fargo-to-close-all-personal-lines-of-credit-cnbc-idUSL3N2OK3GO

 

"Wells Fargo to close all personal lines of credit - CNBC"

"Customers have been given a 60-day notice that their accounts will be shuttered, according to the report."

 

Should I start shorting stuff ?

Is that overdrafts or something else?

[Democorruptcy]

5 hours ago, feed said:

Maybe but so what.  It’ll just be what you pay your taxes and buy your groceries with. 

The state will not decriminalise drugs and people that trade drugs are wealthy and powerful.  Secondary and black market currencies will proliferate and it’s not like the police and legal system can cope with the drug trade today.  
 

It will be handy for them to apply a negative interest rate.

[planit]

In addition to the US Oil inventory post above (skip if you have had enough oil) 

(but I feel oil is solidly woven into the Macro picture for the next 5+ years due to the ESG insanity)

 

After reading a report that mentioned the amount of travelling the US do over July the 4th holiday I decided to look at the last 10 years US historical inventory figures.

I worked out the average extra draw on the week that included 4th July, compared to the previous week. The figure came out to be 5.93mbpd.

Since the week to 2nd July was -6.9mbpd, this would make the next predicted figure -12.8mbpd. 

I have not read anything predicting this so will it be a shock or will they find some oil down the back of the sofa because people might start to worry?

 

PS. I notice  US crude production managed to rise up to 11.3mbpd this week. It has taken a lot of hard work, $75 oil and 7 months to increase the 200k from December 2020. 

[Loki]

@planit i like your oil posts

All oil posts in fact @Cattle Prod 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, planit said:

In addition to the US Oil inventory post above (skip if you have had enough oil) 

(but I feel oil is solidly woven into the Macro picture for the next 5+ years due to the ESG insanity)

 

After reading a report that mentioned the amount of travelling the US do over July the 4th holiday I decided to look at the last 10 years US historical inventory figures.

I worked out the average extra draw on the week that included 4th July, compared to the previous week. The figure came out to be 5.93mbpd.

Since the week to 2nd July was -6.9mbpd, this would make the next predicted figure -12.8mbpd. 

I have not read anything predicting this so will it be a shock or will they find some oil down the back of the sofa because people might start to worry?

 

PS. I notice  US crude production managed to rise up to 11.3mbpd this week. It has taken a lot of hard work, $75 oil and 7 months to increase the 200k from December 2020. 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Poor-Hedging-Could-Cost-US-Shale-20-Billion.html

[Mapper]

9 hours ago, feed said:

Maybe but so what.  It’ll just be what you pay your taxes and buy your groceries with. 

The state will not decriminalise drugs and people that trade drugs are wealthy and powerful.  Secondary and black market currencies will proliferate and it’s not like the police and legal system can cope with the drug trade today.  
 

As mentioned before, they are building a digital prison for us and most are seeming to embrace it.

But, what will be the black market currency in our brave new servitude? Cigarettes may be coming to an end, and besides with CBDC tracking they may be hard to get hold of.

[Sugarlips]

Double digit CPI print for June?! 

That should but the cat among the pigeons 

Got Silver..?

 

[kibuc]

7 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Got Silver..?

Lots of it, unfortunatelly. I've aged 10 years in the last 18 months.

I've given up on my illusions that markets make logical sense. CPI, DXY, TLT, BLM, LGBT, none of this matters, I'm just keeping all my PM stock in hope that one day it will be randomly chosen to have its turn and I'm trying my best not to think about opportunity cost.

[jamtomorrow]

27 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Lots of it, unfortunatelly. I've aged 10 years in the last 18 months.

I've given up on my illusions that markets make logical sense. CPI, DXY, TLT, BLM, LGBT, none of this matters, I'm just keeping all my PM stock in hope that one day it will be randomly chosen to have its turn and I'm trying my best not to think about opportunity cost.

With rates this low across the board, we're as close as it gets to a pure Keynesian beauty contest, meaning winners and losers are determined mostly by game theory, not fundamentals.

That will all change if/when yield becomes a thing again, best we can do here in the meantime is get positioned for those times and try not to get too caught up in the "fun & games".

[Barnsey]

Oh looky here...

 

[feed]

8 hours ago, Mapper said:

As mentioned before, they are building a digital prison for us and most are seeming to embrace it.

But, what will be the black market currency in our brave new servitude? Cigarettes may be coming to an end, and besides with CBDC tracking they may be hard to get hold of.

How many countries run dollars or Euros alongside local currency, for multiple reasons, incl. stability, availability, tax avoidance and corruption.  That isn’t going to change with a CBDC, even assuming that the technology can be implemented globally.  

There will always be a demand for dollars in Africa and Mexico is a de facto narco state with a massive demand for physical dollars. What would the cartels use with a 100% digital dollar? Pesos?  Same for the Euro, the North African drug trade all the way to Afghanistan and you're paying in Euros. 

Any major currency that switches to digital only, creates a vacuum for other currencies to operate in those environment. No major currency region will want to give up the benefits of those markets; non domestic and black.  If we have a CBDC pound then we will also have a physical pound.  Because if we don’t have a physical pound, we’ll have a physical dollar or Euro or crypto for anonymous payments, because the rest of the world will have a process for anonymous payments.  And the banks will not want a competing payment system in something as widespread as the black-market. 

CBDC for benefits, bank loans with varying interest rates and paying taxes seems likely, but not for functional exchange.  

If BOE goes 100% CBDC, then people will be buying drugs and hookers in dollars or Euros. 

 

[Majorpain]

8 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Double digit CPI print for June?! 

That should but the cat among the pigeons 

Got Silver..?

 

It could be true, Cleaner at work also does caring for OAP's, and to prove they are not stealing when shopping they have to take a photo of the receipts.  Its a couple of pounds extra each week spread over everything food wise for the last few months.  £7.30 Fish and chips from the local NE chippy in one of the more deprived areas as well.  

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

It could be true, Cleaner at work also does caring for OAP's, and to prove they are not stealing when shopping they have to take a photo of the receipts.  Its a couple of pounds extra each week spread over everything food wise for the last few months.  £7.30 Fish and chips from the local NE chippy in one of the more deprived areas as well.  

Yep,some big increases in shops,luckily i avoid most of them as i mostly cook my meals and my weekly spend is so low (£35ish) .£7.30 for fish and chips is getting silly isnt it.My local does a whale of a cod and large chips for £8.10,enough for two people.The local Mcdonalds though has its drive through full all day every day.Its always amazed me how busy it is when the food is utter garbage.They must be a fiver a meal now.Pizza place prices are expensive as well now.

I think surviving this cycle well isnt just about investing,its about knowing how to live well frugal,and also repairs etc yourself.There must be a point where that fish and chip price hits the spot where sales start to fall,exactly what inflation does.

[Boon]

Suspect some of the price points will be psychological, think that is why shrinkflation is chosen as opposed to simply charging more for the same item. A lot of products I think have some big ties to a price. For instance a 4-pack of chocolate bars in the supermarket has been £1 for as long as I can remember, obviously the size has changed in that time.

I'd love to get my hands on some old receipts as I'm sure some things have not changed in price and have not been shrunk. Pasta, milk, lettuces for instance.

As for eating out I have been thinking they are in for a rude awakening at some point as people see the markups. Haven't been to Harvester for years but used to go regular for their early bird deals, but the prices seem shocking considering this is not a top-range place. The mains are mostly £13-16 now, by the time you had a drink you're dropping £20+ for 1 person.

[planit]

16 minutes ago, Boon said:

Suspect some of the price points will be psychological, think that is why shrinkflation is chosen as opposed to simply charging more for the same item. A lot of products I think have some big ties to a price. For instance a 4-pack of chocolate bars in the supermarket has been £1 for as long as I can remember, obviously the size has changed in that time.

I'd love to get my hands on some old receipts as I'm sure some things have not changed in price and have not been shrunk. Pasta, milk, lettuces for instance.

As for eating out I have been thinking they are in for a rude awakening at some point as people see the markups. Haven't been to Harvester for years but used to go regular for their early bird deals, but the prices seem shocking considering this is not a top-range place. The mains are mostly £13-16 now, by the time you had a drink you're dropping £20+ for 1 person.

AND they are only paying 5% VAT at the moment, I wonder what will happen when VAT reverts to 20%.

I think restaurants have been making a lot of money last 3 months.

 

This really made me laugh yesterday, (Surprise - turkey doesn't like Christmas )

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, planit said:

AND they are only paying 5% VAT at the moment, I wonder what will happen when VAT reverts to 20%.

I think restaurants have been making a lot of money last 3 months.

 

This really made me laugh yesterday, (Surprise - turkey doesn't like Christmas )

I had a meal in Spoons last week when out with my son to watch the football,it was the worst food iv ever eaten.The burger was crap and you got about 15 chips.It used to be fine for the money.I can make 4, 3/4llb burgers for £1.70 that are beautiful and no additives.