Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[SpectrumFX]

8 minutes ago, Harley said:

Further 'evidence" from today's Telegraph (paywalled):

'Why is my pension being politicised?’: all retirement pots to go green, Government warns

"Pension funds are moving money into ‘sustainable’ stocks but future returns are questionable".

Presumably this will mostly be the defined benefit schemes getting another shoeing, and the default defined contribution funds being ESG.

But presumably we'll still be able to do as we wish in a SIPP?

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, SpectrumFX said:

Forgive my ignorance, but who's Lyn Alden?

A snake oil saleswoman  

She writes about finance and is very good at explaining stuff in an easy to understand way.

https://www.lynalden.com

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Do we have any consensus regarding the most undervalued countries outside of the anglosphere? 

 

Ive seen DB say hes dabbled with Brazil but other than that i dont recall anyone else saying they're investing in emerging markets etc. 

[Barnsey]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Do we have any consensus regarding the most undervalued countries outside of the anglosphere? 

 

Ive seen DB say hes dabbled with Brazil but other than that i dont recall anyone else saying they're investing in emerging markets etc. 

Another vote here for Brazil, I'm dabbling in the BNY Mellon fund as only exposure I can get through regular investment. Tough to look at Asia Pacific clearly right now with China turning down, which is why the Henderson far east income fund is good enough for me.

Bumpy period ahead methinks to year end, I know Mr Hunter suggests otherwise but the virus really does seem to be raging right now, whether you believe in it or not, it's looking like regressive lockdown actions will be implemented in US and elsewhere, popular holiday destinations for Brits moving to amber watchlist. Not the linear reopening trade we hoped for.

...but with a lag.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, SpectrumFX said:

Presumably this will mostly be the defined benefit schemes getting another shoeing, and the default defined contribution funds being ESG.

But presumably we'll still be able to do as we wish in a SIPP?

 

[Harley]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Do we have any consensus regarding the most undervalued countries outside of the anglosphere? 

 

Ive seen DB say hes dabbled with Brazil but other than that i dont recall anyone else saying they're investing in emerging markets etc. 

I must be on "ignore"! 

[ThoughtCriminal]

7 minutes ago, Harley said:

I must be on "ignore"! 

😂😂😂

 

Always read your posts Harley.

Dont recall seeing you mention any emerging market type shares. 

Although when a man has 97 it can be hard to keep track. 😉

[JMD]

5 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Looks like talebs finally jumped the shark. 

How dare he insult the Great Alden!! But seriously, might this be the signal for us contrarians to take the opposite business/finance world-view espoused by Taleb? Might be entertaining to do - Anyone know his 'top 5 forecasts'? 

[Harley]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

....when a man has 97.....

What, my post count?  Self corrects, peaks and troughs, currently going to head down as I'm boring myself too.  Time for walkabout.

"Emerging"?  What's that.  Hard one.  There are funds, ETFs, etc but some include China, Taiwan, even South Korea.  Would you?  What about BRICs and Eastern Europe?  But hard to invest direct in some like India and Korea (not open to foreigners), especially if you use a standard retail broker.

I've mentioned stuff before but not names.  Rods not fish.  AsiaPac mixed atm but defo not out.  I've taken good gains and am waiting.  Maybe not too long now.

I hold some ETFs like Emerging Markets, Latin America, and AsiaPac ex Japan, (and Japan).  I do far better with individual stocks where I can.  Maybe funds and trusts can generate better alpha to pay for themselves than the ETFs.

I screen weekly for stocks in Turkey, Israel, HK, Singapore, Mexico, Malaysia, Australia, Japan, North America, Europe (including Eastern), Russia, and ADRs in closed markets too.  Probably more.  I found best value in HK and Japan.  Others like Turkey were overbought but that eventually changes.

PS:  Would love an entry into Africa, the continent.

[Lightscribe]

 

Soooo um yeah guys, it was nice knowing you all. I’m going for a little boat acci..erm ride with all my physical. 

[Loki]

7 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Looks like talebs finally jumped the shark. 

What was the lead up to that outburst? I assume it's gone now

[DoINeedOne]

So 31st July today mortgage holidays end and as of tomorrow 1st August employers will have to start contributing 20% towards staffs furloughed payments

Governments payment will drop from 80% to 60%

 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

46 minutes ago, Loki said:

What was the lead up to that outburst? I assume it's gone now

Apparently he wrote a paper on cryptos and she offered her critique of it in a video interview, and taleb being taleb, he lost his fucking mind. 

[Loki]

Just now, ThoughtCriminal said:

Apparently he wrote a paper on cryptos and she offered her critique of it in a video interview, and taleb being taleb, he lost his fucking mind. 

Cheers.  Lyn's always spoken sense, to me. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

4 minutes ago, Loki said:

Cheers.  Lyn's always spoken sense, to me. 

Same here. 

 

Used to love taleb but he's been sliding for years.

 

He's had an especially bad war during covid. 

 

Nothings forever though. 

[DurhamBorn]

6 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Do we have any consensus regarding the most undervalued countries outside of the anglosphere? 

 

Ive seen DB say hes dabbled with Brazil but other than that i dont recall anyone else saying they're investing in emerging markets etc. 

China outside of tech companies,Russia,Brasil in certain sectors,but might get cheaper so set ladders if larger sums.

[DurhamBorn]

@Barnsey iv been buying the Henderson Asian Income Trust and will continue to do so .

[Castlevania]

6 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Do we have any consensus regarding the most undervalued countries outside of the anglosphere? 

 

Ive seen DB say hes dabbled with Brazil but other than that i dont recall anyone else saying they're investing in emerging markets etc. 

Apparently Argentina and Pakistan. I have some Cresud and Telecom Argentina. Nothing in Pakistan, but I do think Imran Khan was a great cricketer:

[DurhamBorn]

7 hours ago, Harley said:

Further 'evidence" from today's Telegraph (paywalled):

'Why is my pension being politicised?’: all retirement pots to go green, Government warns

"Pension funds are moving money into ‘sustainable’ stocks but future returns are questionable".

Us basement folks saw what was coming a long time ago didnt we.The good thing is those naughty companies dont need to raise any capital and there is a massive new buyer anyway.Themselves and buy backs.Pensions selling out way below fair value or giving away their future dividend streams for cheap back to the companies to help sustain a lovely growing dividend flow to us.

Nest was selling NMW workers BP shares at £2 ,some to me.

 

[UnconventionalWisdom]

58 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Nest was selling NMW workers BP shares at £2 ,some to me.

I left the scheme  because I was buying whilst they were selling. Crazy world but luckily I have access to this forum. Now moved jobs and they are with nest :(. Pension won't start until after probation but they not agree to add to my sipp like the last place. 

[Hancock]

2 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Apparently Argentina and Pakistan. I have some Cresud and Telecom Argentina. Nothing in Pakistan, but I do think Imran Khan was a great cricketer:

Never understand why a homosexuals sport, is so popular in a land where they string up homosexuals.

[wherebee]

On 30/07/2021 at 11:04, Harley said:

Maybe 117 or so.  The 0.5% is against all asset classes and not just equity, so includes PMs, bonds, etc.  I spend two half days a week max on them and screening for new ones.

but don't you pay a small fee for each trade?  I have <20 stocks, because I don't want to be paying charges on each movement

 

5 hours ago, Hancock said:

Never understand why a homosexuals sport, is so popular in a land where they string up homosexuals.

it allows you to handle other mens balls without dying.

[Castlevania]

7 hours ago, wherebee said:

but don't you pay a small fee for each trade?  I have <20 stocks, because I don't want to be paying charges on each movement

I’m up to 40 stocks which from a keeping track of results etc makes it difficult. Conversely, my main aim is to be in the correct sectors, and have some diversification so that I don’t have too many cases of having more than a year’s savings in a particular company. So at present I’m allocated:

40% - PM miners (14 companies)

25% - Energy (10 companies)

15% - Agriculture (6 companies)

12% - Telcos (6 companies)

8% - Other (2 gambling, 1 tobacco, 1 cinema chain)

I’m getting bummed on Foreign exchange fees

[wherebee]

On 29/07/2021 at 09:28, wherebee said:

I think I kicked off the COVID consideration within this thread by opining that must of the macro picture (rising oil demand against falling supply, inflation, etc) was dependent on the vaccines working.  If they are, instead, ineffective or even worse kill a lot of consumers, I was concerned the macro picture could be out 100% due to this global black swan.

I don't think this is the place to debate the vaccine plus or minus.  We have a whole sub forum for that.  But it IS the place to talk about what signals we might see that would indicate whether the macro inflation theory is going off the rails, so to speak.

 

In terms of signals re the train going off the tracks, some reporting in the COVID thread of what might be initial reports of ADE in the USA and UK.  

So, what might we expect to see this week if that is the future path?  Well, I would expect Pfizer to drop as insiders know what is coming (vaccines don't work, lawsuits or worse).  I'll be watching this chart this week with interest.

 

Note, not debating again all the stuff in the COVID forum, but just trying to see market signals.

 

[Castlevania]

What’s ADE?