Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[geordie_lurch]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

What’s ADE?

Antibody-dependent Enhancement or what a lot of us in the Covid threads have been warning about for over a year that these 'vaccines' were likely to cause - in short a bit like what people with HIV then AIDS end up dealing with

Start your late journey into all this via this recent article from someone who has been calling all this from day one http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=243105

 

[MrXxxx]

3 hours ago, wherebee said:

In terms of signals re the train going off the tracks, some reporting in the COVID thread of what might be initial reports of ADE in the USA and UK.  

So, what might we expect to see this week if that is the future path?  Well, I would expect Pfizer to drop as insiders know what is coming (vaccines don't work, lawsuits or worse).  I'll be watching this chart this week with interest.

 

Note, not debating again all the stuff in the COVID forum, but just trying to see market signals.

 

And what about GSK, they have a Covid collaboration with another company, and the fact that they have now split-off the consumer products stream might they not be ready for a fall?...that and the dislike for the CEO.

[Harley]

4 hours ago, Castlevania said:

I’m up to 40 stocks which from a keeping track of results etc makes it difficult. Conversely, my main aim is to be in the correct sectors, and have some diversification so that I don’t have too many cases of having more than a year’s savings in a particular company. So at present I’m allocated:

40% - PM miners (14 companies)

25% - Energy (10 companies)

15% - Agriculture (6 companies)

12% - Telcos (6 companies)

8% - Other (2 gambling, 1 tobacco, 1 cinema chain)

I’m getting bummed on Foreign exchange fees

Actually ours would not be widely different in terms of resource companies, telcos, etc generally.  What bumps up our numbers is holding some high dividend FTSE portfolios.  We hold these in our ISAs to avoid forex costs on the buys, dividends, and sells.  You can reduce forex costs shopping around even with ISAs where you cannot hold foreign currency (as some brokers offer lower commissions).  You can further reduce them in SIPPs and trading accounts using a broker that supports multi-currency accounts. 

12 hours ago, wherebee said:

.....but don't you pay a small fee for each trade?  I have <20 stocks, because I don't want to be paying charges on each movement.

I have ways to minimise fees but regardless they should be insignificant versus the gain/avoided loss on the deal else I wouldn't bother.  I look mainly at monthly charts so the actual number of trades is relatively small (i.e. I'm not actively trading).  Forex fees are the big cost (as discussed above).  

[23rdian]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

And what about GSK, they have a Covid collaboration with another company, and the fact that they have now split-off the consumer products stream might they not be ready for a fall?...that and the dislike for the CEO.

I think I want out of GSK soon. I'm just waiting for a slight profit. Not keen on being invested in any Pharma at this point.

[MrXxxx]

5 minutes ago, 23rdian said:

I think I want out of GSK soon. I'm just waiting for a slight profit. Not keen on being invested in any Pharma at this point.

I think it depends on what they have in their patents, and how old they are. If they were heavy into Covid vaccinations I don't think I would be interested, as I can see these being dropped when everyone realizes the 'Emperors new clothes'.

[Animal Spirits]

The US Energy Sector is in Chronic Atrophy, And That Could be a Good Thing for Energy Investors

https://www.knowledgeleaderscapital.com/2021/07/23/the-us-energy-sector-is-in-chronic-atrophy-and-that-could-be-a-good-thing-for-energy-investors/

"This raises an obvious question as to how oil production can possibly be maintained at current levels if only 44% of assets are being replaced by new capex. The obvious answer is that, over time, it cannot. If energy capex levels remain at these levels investors may want to seriously consider if US crude oil production will in the foreseeable future return to the previous highs of about 12.5 million barrels per day"

[ThoughtCriminal]

And by pandemic they mean QE

 

Getting mad 2008 vibes...........

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

And by pandemic they mean QE

 

Getting mad 2008 vibes...........

NOW LOOK WHAT THAT PESKY PANDEMIC HAS DONE!  

[Hancock]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

And by pandemic they mean QE

Getting mad 2008 vibes...........

Having to take on so much more debt will kill millions of people off far earlier than what they would ordinarily die, if they were able to buy a house near to family and friends .... and live a life without such insane levels of debt to merely shelter themselves from the elements.

Still so long as Hancock Boris and Sage don't get outed as charlatans and murderers thats all that really matters.

4 months and a bit then i'm out of here!

[ThoughtCriminal]

4 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Having to take on so much more debt will kill millions of people off far earlier than what they would ordinarily die, if they were able to buy a house near to family and friends .... and live a life without such insane levels of debt to merely shelter them from the elements.

Still so long as Hancock Boris and Sage don't get outed as charlatans and murderers thats all that really matters.

4 months and a bit then i'm out of here!

Agree 100%

 

And congratulations, where are you moving to? 

[Hancock]

Just now, ThoughtCriminal said:

Agree 100%

 

And congratulations, where are you moving to? 

Bangkok ... they've missed out on this global house price boom, and their currency is about 12% weaker v the pound .... they've not done any QE!

[Sugarlips]

19 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Bangkok ... they've missed out on this global house price boom, and their currency is about 12% weaker v the pound .... they've not done any QE!

Is there a thread on this? I’d be interested in learning how you get on. All the best either way.

[Don Coglione]

20 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Bangkok ... they've missed out on this global house price boom, and their currency is about 12% weaker v the pound .... they've not done any QE!

Rather selective time-frame there!

[ThoughtCriminal]

21 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Bangkok ... they've missed out on this global house price boom, and their currency is about 12% weaker v the pound .... they've not done any QE!

Fantastic. Always pleased whenever anyone escapes from Airstrip1. 

 

Hope it all goes well for you 👍

[Hancock]

18 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

Rather selective time-frame there!

OK GBP is down circa 60%  from when the crash happened in 1998 to 2021, but up about 25% from 2019 lows.

Im using 40 where its been hovering for several years now, as obviously ive got to select somewhere thats its been recently

https://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates.php?A=1&C1=GBP&C2=THB&DD1=01&MM1=01&YYYY1=1970&B=1&P=&I=1&DD2=01&MM2=08&YYYY2=2021&btnOK=Go!

 

[Castlevania]

I missed this on Friday, but ENI have hiked their dividend for the next year back to pre-Covid levels at €0.86. Also announced €400m of share buybacks.

https://www.eni.com/en-IT/investors/shareholders-remuneration.html

[Majorpain]

https://news.sky.com/story/british-engineering-firm-meggitt-agree-6-3bn-takeover-by-us-tech-giant-parker-hannifin-12370518

Another one gone, Ultra will probably be following them shortly as well.  US companies are able to pay stupid prices for UK companies with the excess of cash swilling around.

[DurhamBorn]

17 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

https://news.sky.com/story/british-engineering-firm-meggitt-agree-6-3bn-takeover-by-us-tech-giant-parker-hannifin-12370518

Another one gone, Ultra will probably be following them shortly as well.  US companies are able to pay stupid prices for UK companies with the excess of cash swilling around.

Yep,we said one of the big winners in the cycle would be defence and the mid range ones are all getting snapped up.

The US companies simply borrow free money the Fed prints and buys up real assets.

Now iv worked for a couple of US companies,Cummins and 3M and they both paid high wages,decent conditions,blow your brains diversity and woke crap ,but for the country it means less and less tax from real companies.

I havent done much work on the UK structural deficit lately,mainly as the main CBs are all working together to try to print as much as they can in tandem and keep currencies in a range.Thats why asset prices rise,because no big currency is taking the hit with a de-value.Once one one stops though the UK will be exposed.

 

[Hancock]

24 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yep,we said one of the big winners in the cycle would be defence and the mid range ones are all getting snapped up.

The US companies simply borrow free money the Fed prints and buys up real assets.

Now iv worked for a couple of US companies,Cummins and 3M and they both paid high wages,decent conditions,blow your brains diversity and woke crap ,but for the country it means less and less tax from real companies.

I havent done much work on the UK structural deficit lately,mainly as the main CBs are all working together to try to print as much as they can in tandem and keep currencies in a range.Thats why asset prices rise,because no big currency is taking the hit with a de-value.Once one one stops though the UK will be exposed.

 

This DT comment sums the UK up -

[Castlevania]

Heineken also warning about cost inflation and stating that it will have a material impact on their profitability next year. The cost of aluminium and transport costs have soared.

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/heineken-first-half-results-profits-rise-but-warns-over-commodity-costs-b948759.html?amp

[JMD]

11 hours ago, Hancock said:

Bangkok ... they've missed out on this global house price boom, and their currency is about 12% weaker v the pound .... they've not done any QE!

Great to hear and all the best on the move, hope you continue posting.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Heineken also warning about cost inflation and stating that it will have a material impact on their profitability next year. The cost of aluminium and transport costs have soared.

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/heineken-first-half-results-profits-rise-but-warns-over-commodity-costs-b948759.html?amp

This line from HL shows how little people understand inflation,brand power will be worth nothing.They will need to produce closer to the consumer.In an inflation cycle all parts of the chain inflate so you need to remove parts or shorten them,the opposite of a dis-inflation cycle.

Hargreaves Lansdown's William Ryder said that "in an inflationary environment brand strength will be more important than ever" for Heineken.

[Harley]

20 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

This line from HL shows how little people understand inflation,brand power will be worth nothing.They will need to produce closer to the consumer.In an inflation cycle all parts of the chain inflate so you need to remove parts or shorten them,the opposite of a dis-inflation cycle.

Hargreaves Lansdown's William Ryder said that "in an inflationary environment brand strength will be more important than ever" for Heineken.

Ha, just passed on a beverage company with a technical buy signal this morning as it has very negative equity if you take out the intangibles (brands) from the balance sheet!

[Harley]

 

2 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Heineken also warning about cost inflation and stating that it will have a material impact on their profitability next year. The cost of aluminium and transport costs have soared.

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/heineken-first-half-results-profits-rise-but-warns-over-commodity-costs-b948759.html?amp

126% Debt to Equity.  Net intangibles exceed net equity.  0.83 Current Ratio.  Negative ROx yet 30% gross margin.  Funds from Operations half of 2019.  2.32b debt issuance in 2020.  0.71% yield.  Yet up 31% from the Sep20 low on the monthly and up 419% from the 08 low on the weekly!  What do I know!

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

This line from HL shows how little people understand inflation,brand power will be worth nothing.They will need to produce closer to the consumer.In an inflation cycle all parts of the chain inflate so you need to remove parts or shorten them,the opposite of a dis-inflation cycle.

Hargreaves Lansdown's William Ryder said that "in an inflationary environment brand strength will be more important than ever" for Heineken.

I started working in pubs just after the last inflationary madness in the 70's.  Punters didn't give a fuck about brand names.  cheap and got you drunk was what mattered.  Even with whisky, the cheap ones were drunk more than the brand posh ones.  Old punters would come in for half a mild and nurse it for two hours.  

I suspect Bill Ryder has never worked through inflationary times at the pointy end.