Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, Starsend said:

They'd have to ban the use of physical gold/silver as these would quickly become an alternative currency.

I'll have decided to wear a full face respirator by then, good luck A.I. face cams.

Don't you know there's a killer virus on the loose? PEOPLE. ARE. DYING.

[Starsend]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

I'll have decided to wear a full face respirator by then, good luck A.I. face cams.

Don't you know there's a killer virus on the loose? PEOPLE. ARE. DYING.

Don't start going on about that bloody virus or we'll have to banish you 

[Option5]

1 minute ago, Starsend said:

Don't start going on about that bloody virus or we'll have to banish you 

Virus? Virus?

What virus is this?

[Loki]

8 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Don't start going on about that bloody virus or we'll have to banish you 

Just playing them at their own game. 

WELCOME TO THE THUNDERDOME BARTER TOWN, YOU'RE TALKING TO THE CHIEF.

In all seriousness though, I do agree with you.  We should have 'a gigantic barter economy' in mind, if these CBDC are what we think they are.

 

 

Edit: Also, come on HOC you piece of junk, I believe in you. 

[Hancock]

9 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Thats a nice looking portfolio that is

I'm probabaly the worng poerson to speak to as I'm not very risk averse and you'd need a more educated/senseible mind on the matter.but the way I look at house moeny is this.

£250k in BP/Shell/AnOther inflkation proof stock currently nets you circa £12.5k in divis.If they go back to the old divid.the oilies might be paying 10% at this price,so £25k.Our rent is £10k(and deflating at 4% per annum).And we live in leicester which is a bit of a sh1thole(but I can say that as I grew up here).

Renting isn't great in terms of tenure/LL's but it's business.If it means I can retire and rent in pretty much any country in the world (Mrs P is from SA)when I'd like then I'm happy.Even Mrs P gets teh programme and is on board.When you do the maths at current prices it's pretty terrifying that people are piling at the very moment they should hold back but I been saying that for 20 years.

Have to watch what I say and stress the old cattle prod dyodd-because Im not a finacial advisor.

I'll have cheap rent in BKK for circa 6k per annum. Got 15-18k a year in school fees for 6 years, which i'll pay with earnings. 

All the research ive done tells me a BK is inevitable when interest rates go up, or when the market realises central banks cant print it any more money, and that Covid fucked the economy big time .... problem is most my research is going to be from sources that confirm that belief.

But yes oilies paying 5-10% and if/when the share price rises that kind of divi on a £500k is life changing ... but making money is never that easy!

 

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, Hancock said:

Cheers

Ive done a load of work recently and have about 35k in cash in a SIPP worth about 150k, which as i cant touch it for a while, ive viewed it as monopoly money.

Its the £250k that was set aside to buy the house thats the issue, as obviously that was money to give stability so feels more of a gamble to be sticking it into the market.

Its odd the psychology as its all my money that i've earned doing the exact same work, just view it as totally separate funds .... I can live without needing to touch house money, but i've half got my mind set on gambling that a BK happens, so it doubles in a couple of years then i'll just live off the dividends for the rest of my life, which at 46 sounds great!

I was going to drop part of my house deposit/ISA funds of 80k into BP when it was a 275p the other day, but bottled it. 

Got plenty of telcos, would have had more but could buy Brazilian ones. 

If oil, silver, gold and telcos hit the moon i should be ok with this SIPP.

I see you love ‘averaging down’ in Vodafone just as much as me 

[Harley]

4 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I personally would rather gian exposure to India/China via the telecoms markets which are currently cheap.Chinese companies have real issues regarding their accounts-something @Cattle Prodhas been advising in his sphere since day one-things like sing tel have really interesting cross holdings in the area

I have no concern allocating some to China via HK, and the other Asian countries.  I am however wary about any (typically Asian) company with either cross holdings or being conglomerate style (e.g. cement manufacturers owning a golf course or doing property development).  I have already digged down on one set of accounts flattered by intercompany transactions, let alone any legal commitments or just plain cash calls.  In the above case it was in a basic financial statement line that just shouldn't have been that big (one of the obscure summary cash flow lines).  Just for balance, there are some seriously dodgy big cap western companies with uglies in plain sight.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

We have a 2.5% postion in vod....

We hold no more than 0.5% of total portfolio value (so the total of all asset classes) in any one stock!

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Loki said:

In all seriousness though, I do agree with you.  We should have 'a gigantic barter economy' in mind, if these CBDC are what we think they are

Everyone out in the sticks here know they want to ban cash.  I think I'll start asking what they would prefer instead should that happen.  That is, a bit of local market research.  I already offer crypto but no takers so far (but I expect with the seed sown they'll be coming for barterable advice later!).  All above board though as life's too short.  I have a do this weekend so might start there.  Could be very interesting conversations and I bet they'll go for it.  As I say, I've been thinking about "value" for some time!  

 

 

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Starsend said:

They'd have to ban the use of physical gold/silver as these would quickly become an alternative currency.

I meet the most interesting of people away from the "clever" city folk.

I was once having a nice chat with a average guy about buying some kit and joked how did they want to be paid.  Turns around and says he had a windfall and his wife told him to buy some PMs and that was the best financial thing he had ever done.  He then retreated like hell like he had said too much.

I just just gave the nod, touched me nose, and said you've got a couple of keepers there!  

[Harley]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Renting isn't great in terms of tenure/LL's but it's business.If it means I can retire and rent in pretty much any country in the world (Mrs P is from SA)when I'd like then I'm happy.Even Mrs P gets teh programme and is on board.When you do the maths at current prices it's pretty terrifying that people are piling at the very moment they should hold back but I been saying that for 20 years.

I did the same for years with a deposit account when we had interest rates.  I liked the flexibility, did not want to buy in the locale (but work!), was on HPC, and doubted the landlady was making much (including capital appreciation) after costs.  It was a very modest gaff (embarrassing for those who cared) but I liked being grey.  One of the main reasons we ended up buying was when interest rates went to nothing.

PS:  I did someone's estate back in the 90s and most had been long term in deposit accounts.  But it was a close call performance wise with that and the FTSE, and far lower risk.  How things have changed.

[Hancock]

39 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I see you love ‘averaging down’ in Vodafone just as much as me 

Yes they werent such a bargain at a 180ish in 2019 after all. Divis will mean i'm probably breaking even.

[DurhamBorn]

@sancho panza iv been buying the same telcos as you.I would like to add a couple more but i see the most value at the moment in the ones im buying.Il be adding to Orange with all divis flowing in at the minute.Im also adding to Yamana at the moment.I think the biggest risk is keeping too much in sterling because of the massive welfare and public workers salaries/pensions.

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

Yes they werent such a bargain at a 180ish in 2019 after all. Divis will mean i'm probably breaking even.

Lots of people forget that fact but its crucial.It will be interesting to see when the first telcos starts share buybacks and at what debt level.Probably a way off yet but likely most of the big ones will be doing it later in the cycle.

[ThoughtCriminal]

 

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Lots of people forget that fact but its crucial.It will be interesting to see when the first telcos starts share buybacks and at what debt level.Probably a way off yet but likely most of the big ones will be doing it later in the cycle.

As I previously worked in cellular analytics for years (alongside cellular experts that really know their stuff)  I completely agree, like I said I’ve done the same for the long term. Just giving a bit of jovial nudge.  

[Froggy2000]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jul/29/foreign-control-of-north-sea-oil-licences-threatens-uks-net-zero-goal

Another example of predictions from this thread coming into reality.  Average Joe investors get squeezed out of decent investments by woke BS.  

Does it make any difference to CO2?  Nope.  Just means we lose vital productive assets to abroad thanks to clueless Guardian readers.

Utter, utter, fools.

[Don Coglione]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

PS:  I did someone's estate back in the 90s and most had been long term in deposit accounts.  But it was a close call performance wise with that and the FTSE, and far lower risk.  How things have changed.

I think this is an underestimated point; for many of our average age (50?), the memories of decent deposit rates and boom-and-bust equity performance linger long. In essence, a contrary "people have long memories" viewpoint. Similar to "you can't go wrong with bricks and mortar". Look just a little outside this forum to witness the established mindset still prevail.

[MrXxxx]

12 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Fres on its way up now, got several buys in the 700’s zone, happy with that.

Looked at this over the last few weeks,high PE, low yield, so though there must be better options to put my money in....or am i misreading it?

[Tingles]

7 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

The Bank of England has called on ministers to decide whether a central bank digital currency should be “programmable”

LMFAO.  Like this isn't already a done deal.  You have to appreciate the comedy!

"Gee guys, we can automate taxation, financial surveillence, and blacklisting but I'm not sure about controlling where they spend our CBDC and what they spend it on..." 

[JMD]

9 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Let's hope we can spend all our inflation proof earnings on what we want and it won't be in Britcoins I'm sure this sort of stuff was considered a 'conspiracy theory' a few months ago when I mentioned where we were heading...

The Bank of England has called on ministers to decide whether a central bank digital currency should be “programmable”, ultimately giving the issuer control over how it is spent by the recipient.

“There could be some socially beneficial outcomes from that, preventing activity which is seen to be socially harmful in some way. But at the same time it could be a restriction on people’s freedoms.”

“You could think of giving your children pocket money, but programming the money so that it couldn’t be used for sweets. There is a whole range of things that money could do, programmable money, which we cannot do with the current technology.”

http://archive.today/qgWai

But if we're lucky they might put Dido Harding in charge of implementation!

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

As I previously worked in cellular analytics for years (alongside cellular experts that really know their stuff)  I completely agree, like I said I’ve done the same for the long term. Just giving a bit of jovial nudge.  

Do you have a view on Elon Musk's satellite high speed internet project? Might it in future threaten 'our' telcos or will it's market base be mainly Africa and rural population areas? 

[wherebee]

11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

our options positions will get reduced,I took advantage of XOM at $55 the other week and got straight into BP/Shell as well.but I'm looking at the long side of these commodity trades and I'm jsut not seeing a reason to sell the underlying yet.I'm jsut not.And I'm one of the biggest BK chatter mongers on here.

I sold XOM at 55 to take 6000 profit off the table.  I suspect you bought my shares, you bastard! 

 

seriously though, I think it's still a good call for you, but I was heavily overweight on oilies and had little free cash to take advantage of any BK.  So I don't mind if a fellow DOSBODDER picks up a good deal.

[JMD]

10 hours ago, Hancock said:

Cheers

Ive done a load of work recently and have about 35k in cash in a SIPP worth about 150k, which as i cant touch it for a while, ive viewed it as monopoly money.

Its the £250k that was set aside to buy the house thats the issue, as obviously that was money to give stability so feels more of a gamble to be sticking it into the market.

Its odd the psychology as its all my money that i've earned doing the exact same work, just view it as totally separate funds .... I can live without needing to touch house money, but i've half got my mind set on gambling that a BK happens, so it doubles in a couple of years then i'll just live off the dividends for the rest of my life, which at 46 sounds great!

I was going to drop part of my house deposit/ISA funds of 80k into BP when it was a 275p the other day, but bottled it. 

Got plenty of telcos, would have had more but could buy Brazilian ones. 

If oil, silver, gold and telcos hit the moon i should be ok with this SIPP.

Great looking portfolio imho, plus always pleased to see Rockhopper, gotta be a 100bagger from here?!?

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

You have > 200 stocks?! I wish I had the time to do due diligence on that lot 

Maybe 117 or so.  The 0.5% is against all asset classes and not just equity, so includes PMs, bonds, etc.  I spend two half days a week max on them and screening for new ones.