Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[TheCountOfNowhere]

17 minutes ago, subutai80 said:

would think they'll get a nice little boost from people working from home.

National grid holding up well

[Democorruptcy]

Call me old fashioned but when you want to view a house and get an email from the estate agent like this, it might be put some people off!

Quote

We as a company take the spread of Coronavirus extremely seriously. Our number one priority remains the safety and wellbeing of our team and customers.

At this stage we are continuing with appointments but asking all parties the 3 questions below, with a YES to any question resulting in no appointment being booked/cancelled to avoid unnecessary contact.

1. Has anyone who lives at the property/or within your home travelled abroad in the last 28 days?
2. Has anyone you've been with in the last 14 days travelled abroad in the last 28 days?
3. Is anyone suspected, showing symptoms, or had a positive coronavirus test result in the last 14
days?

If your answer us YES to the above questions, please contact the office to re-arrange or cancel your booked appointment 

I answered the questions with a No then asked them about their staff and who had last viewed it. I told her to unlock the door then get back into her car out of my way. I said I'd be going in wearing my surgical gloves but hadn't decided yet about my face mask yet.

Imagine what it's going to be like for houses if people know or start thinking if someone who had the virus died in it. Will it be on the rightmove advert? Vendor Alive Yes/No, if No cause of Death? I feel an email to them coming on 

 

 

[Loki]

I can't bear to imagine house prices staying as high as they are after everything else has taken a whack like it has

[Don Coglione]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

I can't bear to imagine house prices staying as high as they are after everything else has taken a whack like it has

Finally exchanged contracts on my sale yesterday. I was shitting myself all weekend that the buyers would pull out (I would have done). Our estate agent reckoned we were lucky and likely to be one of the very last sales to go through for some time.

Happy to hunker down in a rental for a while; just need to find a safe haven for the cash...

[BearyBear]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

I can't bear to imagine house prices staying as high as they are after everything else has taken a whack like it has

I smell panic in Edinburgh... so many flats are flooding the market, both for let and for sale.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Ponty Mython said:

I was shitting myself all weekend that the buyers would pull out (I would have done)

So would I.  Do you know their circumstances? 

[Don Coglione]

21 minutes ago, Loki said:

So would I.  Do you know their circumstances? 

Actually, I was more concerned that our buyers' buyers would pull out (that's the extent of the chain), as they are currently in rented accommodation, on which they had served notice and had to be out by the end of March. In turn, our buyers are swapping a 3 storey house for ours, ground level only, at the same price, I believe due to upcoming mobility issues.

Had I been the ones renting, I would have been on to the landlord to recind my notice quick-smart.

With a cash-pile to attend, despite my portfolio looking like a bloodbath, the thought of more BP at £2.50 and Shell for under a tenner is very tempting, though I need to learn greater patience.

Not sure I will be topping up on Centrica though - one crucifixion is enough!

[sancho panza]

6 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

At some point would you expect a strong dollar again SP, previously on here we expected a weaker dollar then a turn stronger as everyone raced to the dollar

We're obviously seeing some dollar strength as the crisis passes through.Looking at China,it will pass either of it's own volition(most likely) or govt intervention(most govts aren't really responding in a sensisble manner).

Once this crisis passes- and for that I think we'll need to see the top of the curve behind us--then dollar will weaken ,commodities will rise commensurately  alongside inflationary pressures.

My thesis would change if this crisis kicks the debt deflation off but all that would do is leave me sat in the stocks I'm in.The price action in the goldies has been vicious,and that's without a weak dollar.If when that starts,things will get interesting.

 

[sancho panza]

16 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Likewise, due to being far too heavy on precious metals I’m 32% down now, but I keep looking at this and thinking we really are living through one of the most extreme market moments going back over almost 100 years. Little did I expect it to spiral so soon, thought stimulus would prop things up for a while longer.
 

 

Some of the goldies moved 40% bottom to top yesterday.We're about breaking even on goldies for now,but won't be selling any of them.The upside could be huge from here.

[sancho panza]

14 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

They go big or no economy.No choice.CBs will print direct into the economy,i expect we will see governments backstop every industry.France mentioned tonight no company would go under.Not sure how they will do it,but its certain.They cant just say dont go to the pub and do nothing.There will be some form of insurance,maybe to provide working capital that all companies can access.Thats the key providing ticking over working capital.The CBs might offer to issue bonds to any company that asks 0% coupon paid back over 20 years.This debt deflation was always going to end up here one way or another.If governments do that then they can face the virus down then.Of course it means inflation down the line.Then as the virus ends expect massive spending so every big economy can become self reliant again.One huge thing to come out of this will be the west facing China down.The US might even en-circle them in naval assets.Trump said tonight it was nobody's fault apart from China's

Governments have pissed around for decades,but ends of cycles are where the state machine kicks in.CBs will backstop a massive fiscal move.They probably have a few days to act.

As per previous reply,I expected decent size printing to fend off the debt deflation.There's a chance here we'll be cutting out the middle man.Bought more RDSB/BP this mronign and was saying to my Mum yesterday that my whole game plan going out to 2022 was to sell up and deploy us into yield and some goldies but with the prices we're picking up some big oilies,we could well keep them long term.

 

It's going to be interesting to see how they try and bail out small businesses here,which as you allude,they're obliged to do both politcally and morally.

Also going to be fascinating to see how they deal with US shale.

 

finally,let me add my thanks to @Cattle Prod s for all the work of your own you've shared on here and the interesting discussions you've started and kept going.I've learned lots.

Enjoy your retirement at last.Hoep you stillf laot around though.

13 hours ago, BearyBear said:

3 years of gains = 3 weeks of drops... Trump must be very, very angry!

presidential election years are normally economically neutral,which means there's going to be some big big stimulus the other end of thsi.

[Boon]

Do you mean in the physicals or the ETFs? 

Was queueing yesterday but didn't get my Bullionvault order filled. Feels uncomfortable to be buying at close to highs.

Could there be any plausible situation where gold tanks? Ie if the governments do a Japan?

[sancho panza]

5 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I don't think so. I think this is just about done. Good news is starting to appear in Korea (kids going back to school soon) and Italy (new case count levelling off) and I think markets will apply the time lag to the UK and USA, as long as they take it seriously, as they now are. The worst is yet to come virus wise for the UK and USA, but it may be that the market front runs it.

In the meantime, half the shale patch is shutting down, and where I am is talking about shut ins too. It's not just a demand destruction, its also a production destruction. Leads and lags, as @DurhamBorn says.

Key thing here CP is the levelling off,once people perceive that the disease isn't as threatening as the media have portrayed it,then I think we'll see a realitvely quick return to normal service but....and it's a but....things have changed forever for CHina/West relaitons,US shale and a host of CRE dead spots.We could well see some sub prime style collapses from this that warn of the bigger dislocation that's coming in corporate bond markets.

I'm back in work tomorrow night,I'll update if anythign interesting occurs.If I can I'll try and have a chat with some of the Drs and find out what they really think.

My view is that the talk of 250,000 UK deaths is way,way wide of the mark.

[M S E Refugee]

No deliveries of Bullion from Bullion by Post and Atkinsons due to high demand and also APMEX in the US has very little stock.

The paper and physical markets seem detached from each other.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

4 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

The paper and physical markets seem detached from each other.

Odd that 

[Bear Hug]

18 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

No deliveries of Bullion from Bullion by Post and Atkinsons due to high demand and also APMEX in the US has very little stock.

The paper and physical markets seem detached from each other.

Very similar to toilet paper and hand sanitiser at the moment! 

[Don Coglione]

I am not sure whether durhamborn has formally signed off, but what about the transports like GOG and FGP now? Opportunity or bankruptcy?

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Ponty Mython said:

Finally exchanged contracts on my sale yesterday. I was shitting myself all weekend that the buyers would pull out (I would have done). Our estate agent reckoned we were lucky and likely to be one of the very last sales to go through for some time.

Happy to hunker down in a rental for a while; just need to find a safe haven for the cash...

Might be of interest if you didn't already know.

https://www.fscs.org.uk/how-we-work/temporary-high-balances/

[janch]

One of my main lessons I've taken so far is that I should have bought some TLT (or IBTL).  Right at the beginning of this journey people said to buy as a hedge and I didn't as I didn't know quite what they were and see how it worked. I was a complete novice to this whole thing of investing. 

Right now I'm at a much bigger paper loss than DB has achieved but it could have been a lot less if I'd hedged

But it's all part of the learning process...........

[Loki]

Trading suspended on Baird, nothing in stock at Royal Mint or Coininvest  and BullionByPost suspended deliveries.

This is  mental, in my opinion and limited experience 

(I am talking about silver as durhamborn and several other people I follow are saying focus on silver)

[Majorpain]

Gold soaring, Central Bank somewhere just played the MMT card in desperation?

[BearyBear]

16 minutes ago, Loki said:

Trading suspended on Baird, nothing in stock at Royal Mint or Coininvest  and BullionByPost suspended deliveries.

This is  mental, in my opinion and limited experience 

(I am talking about silver as durhamborn and several other people I follow are saying focus on silver)

I wonder how many coins they had in stock before people rushed to buy? You can still buy 100oz silver bar for storage on goldcore, +10% spot price so not bad (coins were +20%)

btw.  I can see lots of new subscriptions on all the YT PMs-related channels that I follow...

[Don Coglione]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

Might be of interest if you didn't already know.

https://www.fscs.org.uk/how-we-work/temporary-high-balances/

Thanks, I didn't know that. I guess that gives RBS 6 months to spunk my money (though if the FSCS has to pay out with printed money, I will have bigger problems).

[Bricks & Mortar]

 

[Loki]

That isn't infrastructure spending...is this just to pacify people before that happens?

[Bricks & Mortar]

My entire portfolio, (all pm miners), what's left of it after being stopped out on half them last week. 
Today, I'm up 25% at this point.   Faceripping!