Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Majorpain]

24 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Although it's going to be interesting watching that video from @Barnsey when I get time see if there's any ideas when teh infaltion will show in the data.

I enjoyed it, and not just because he agrees with me on EU and China!  

[DurhamBorn]

My dollar call is for 88,but 85 is also in play if no BK hits.Really pleased with the call down to 88 when it was 100 and it seemed everyone was a bull then.

Weakening dollar from around here down to 85 is putting the EU area at systemic risk as the Euro gains strength.Euro area needs the FED to QE much more than the Euro area.Instead of simply buying bonds the Euro area needs a massive boost to fiscal spending to lift GDP before they end up owning and even larger percentage of total debt.

[JMD]

On 15/12/2020 at 14:46, Loki said:

The only point I'm going to even attempt a cheeky trade is when we see the general consensus of DXY ~88, oil ~$55, as after that a bust is expected but not guaranteed to knock everything down.

Other than that for the next 10 years I plan to just sit and collect dividends, but a chance to sell the lot at current prices and get a once in a life time do-over of March is too much for someone in my position to ignore.

I receive the (free) Evergreen weekly newsletter, which also includes a like/dislike macro type overview. Mostly their investment choices stay same (as they would as it is a long term strategy), but any changes /mods they put in bold... this week they said (link below, includes sign-up): 

'As an overarching recommendation, present market conditions have become so hyper-bullish that this author is suggesting significant profit-taking...'

Likes/Dislikes - December 11, 2020 - Evergreen Gavekal

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Although it's going to be interesting watching that video from @Barnsey when I get time see if there's any ideas when teh infaltion will show in the data.

If you are watching it anyway make some notes and give us a quick summary. When I saw 1hr 16m without a message about it containing adult themes or scenes that would upset some viewers, I switched it off.

[harp]

5 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Dave Hunter tweeting this today, just prior to the announcement of a $900 billion stimulus package, suggests to me that despite him saying otherwise, much of his melt up rally relies largely on these indiscriminate hand outs in an environment where sports betting is still largely shut down.

 

Great! Soon as a little pump starts up he pops! A fucking massive down day tomorrow.

[Hunty]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

,no goldies really dropped that much in the last two months to good value levels.I'm still looking at BVN and MCM at $12-50 and $20 but there's not much else screaming value

HOC 196p

Xmas gift

[CVG]

You have to love some of these targeted ETF's. I spotted this one while looking for something else:

iShares IV plc Ageing Population UCITS ETF USD (GBP) (AGES)

Not bad performance either

 

[dnb24]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

My dollar call is for 88,but 85 is also in play if no BK hits.Really pleased with the call down to 88 when it was 100 and it seemed everyone was a bull then.

Weakening dollar from around here down to 85 is putting the EU area at systemic risk as the Euro gains strength.Euro area needs the FED to QE much more than the Euro area.Instead of simply buying bonds the Euro area needs a massive boost to fiscal spending to lift GDP before they end up owning and even larger percentage of total debt.

Durhamborn- can you tell us why you say dxy at 85 if no BK? My thoughts are if the DXY hits 85 - it will set off a derivative debt event in Europe - and that would be the BK.  
By no means is this critical of what you’re saying- just trying to learn

[DurhamBorn]

9 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

Durhamborn- can you tell us why you say dxy at 85 if no BK? My thoughts are if the DXY hits 85 - it will set off a derivative debt event in Europe - and that would be the BK.  
By no means is this critical of what you’re saying- just trying to learn

Exactly.I see lots of systemic risk at 85,so if the BK doesnt hit between now and then the dollar keeps falling.If a big kahuna hits at 88 then the dollar will turn then.My target on the dollar has always been 88,because that should cause massive stress elsewhere,especially the euro area.However 85 could still be in play looking at liquidity flows and my roadmap has an extreme of 78 even on the dollar.That would bring forward the inflation by around 18 months and would probably see European Banks go under one after another.I dont think we will see 78,but it is an outlier on my road map.

Europe is in desperate trouble.The southern portion needs massive fiscal injections and Germany probably needs a 40% higher currency.The EU is a disaster,and it will be shown for one during the cycle ahead.They are going to get the inflation they dont want,input inflation.

 

[Loki]

Great question, great answer. 

[Loki]

7 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Dave Hunter tweeting this today, just prior to the announcement of a $900 billion stimulus package, suggests to me that despite him saying otherwise, much of his melt up rally relies largely on these indiscriminate hand outs in an environment where sports betting is still largely shut down.

[nirvana]

59 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

derivative debt event

what's that? caused by too strong €?

Madame is in control, n'est ce pas? 

 

[leonardratso]

i dont think esther ranzen will be able to control this.

[nirvana]

47 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Europe is in desperate trouble

maybe but there's plenty of space to run away and hide ......there's nowhere to run in the UK...... it's too full and too full of Rachmans and Rachman wannabies...

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, leonardratso said:

i dont think esther ranzen will be able to control this.

she's coming to see you this friday....

 

[leonardratso]

is that joe biden?

[dnb24]

56 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly.I see lots of systemic risk at 85,so if the BK doesnt hit between now and then the dollar keeps falling.If a big kahuna hits at 88 then the dollar will turn then.My target on the dollar has always been 88,because that should cause massive stress elsewhere,especially the euro area.However 85 could still be in play looking at liquidity flows and my roadmap has an extreme of 78 even on the dollar.That would bring forward the inflation by around 18 months and would probably see European Banks go under one after another.I dont think we will see 78,but it is an outlier on my road map.

Europe is in desperate trouble.The southern portion needs massive fiscal injections and Germany probably needs a 40% higher currency.The EU is a disaster,and it will be shown for one during the cycle ahead.They are going to get the inflation they dont want,input inflation.

 

Thanks DB, appreciate your answer

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, Barnsey said:

THIS. IS. BRILLIANT. Really important video to watch if you can spare the time, hugely appropriate for everyone here.

 

Debt service ratios as mentioned in this interview (https://www.bis.org/statistics/dsr.htm)

[nirvana]

IG cunts, don't use them, cunts......taken me out on an overnighter, it didn't hit my stop, liars.......if I complain they'll say 'ah yes the spread increases overnight' wankers, cunts from London......

good I'll sleep better now.....

[nirvana]

OIL BROKEN OUT!! 48s! We're loaded! 

Well, we wanna be free, we wanna be free to do what we wanna do
And we wanna get loaded and we wanna have a good time
And that's what we're gonna do (away baby, let's go)
We're gonna have a good time, we're gonna have a party

[Loki]

Was just going to post, DXY dropped overnight

[Green Devil]

11 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

IG cunts, don't use them, cunts......taken me out on an overnighter, it didn't hit my stop, liars.......if I complain they'll say 'ah yes the spread increases overnight' wankers, cunts from London......

good I'll sleep better now.....

Surely if you enter and then tell them where youre going to "TAKE a loser" and they make a profit, you shouldnt be surprised if they miraculously find your exit price ? 

[spygirl]

15 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

My dollar call is for 88,but 85 is also in play if no BK hits.Really pleased with the call down to 88 when it was 100 and it seemed everyone was a bull then.

Weakening dollar from around here down to 85 is putting the EU area at systemic risk as the Euro gains strength.Euro area needs the FED to QE much more than the Euro area.Instead of simply buying bonds the Euro area needs a massive boost to fiscal spending to lift GDP before they end up owning and even larger percentage of total debt.

If only it was that simple.....

German needs massive amounts spent on infrastructure. Large parts of the country is falling to bits.

The Southern bits need nothing spent on them. Its just throwing money after bad whilst the society is not reformed.

Spains placed it self at the front of EU fiscal slush fund. Itll be a disaster for all concerned.

What needs to happen in Spain, Portugal Italy and Greece is simple:

- Stop all spending on public sector pensions dead.

- Shutdown the public sector for a year and remploy people on much lower money.

- Strip away all employment and social spending - just copy Germany's Hartz rules.

- Set a minium EU pension age of 70. Outlaw any public sector employee drawing a pension before 70.

You cannot sort out Souther Europe by small incremental changes or EU slush money.

 

 

 

 

[nirvana]

the FED is the only game in town, you can stop listening to all the cunts on twatter and youtube 

the markets are flying on more FED liquidity overnight....

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20201216c.htm

Federal Reserve announces the extension of its temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap lines and the temporary repurchase agreement facility for foreign and international monetary authorities (FIMA repo facility) through September 30, 2021

[nirvana]

13 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Large parts of the country is falling to bits.

maybe but UK is a complete shitehole and  the infrastructure sucks arseholes....like the planners......and unlike France which is paradise in comparison.....enjoy your Brexit