Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

@janch It's the best thing I've seen posted on ZH for a long time 

[Noallegiance]

46 minutes ago, Loki said:

Other than that for the next 10 years I plan to just sit and collect dividends, but a chance to sell the lot at current prices and get a once in a life time do-over of March is too much for someone in my position to ignore.

My penultimate pension transfer just landed in my SIPP so I just spunked a load on my top 9 divi payers, non divi low cost inflation cycle punts and commodity plays. Given that a lot of my stocks are seemingly undervalued and look like they've nosed up ready for the next cycle I can't bring myself to sell other than the odd profit taking and recycle into divi payers that I'm not selling. Don't think I could handle selling loads and then seeing the prices run away from my small means. I've got 20-30 years to wait until I take my pension anyway so a gamble now strikes me as pointless. Plus, if I were a gambler I probably wouldn't be loving this thread!

Now got circa 15% cash in reserve for any potential crash to top up, or feed it in if a bust affecting my position doesn't materialise.

I feel like a kid at Christmas buying up divi payers with money former employers gave me!

[Noallegiance]

In case anyone has come to this like me as a complete novice, the sum total of my education from the last ten years has come to the following portfolio. Not advice, just my list of SIPP holdings:

 

Divi payers:

BP, RDSB, Repsol, Plains All American, Gazprom, Telefonica, BAT, Voda, SSE, Telia, Canacol Energy, Stagecoach, Anglo American, Go Ahead, BT, Babcock, Royal Mail, Schlumberger, Ibstock

 

Non divi:

AFC Energy, ITM Power, Horizonte, GDX, GDXJ, Intrepid Potash, Powerhouse Energy, Southwestern Energy, Vermillion Energy, Infrastrata.

 

I've intentionally avoided momentum stocks, given where we appear to be in the cycles.

I didn't open my SIPP until Q1 2020. Started buying April 2020. Until today's buying I was circa 8% up. Cost average will obviously affect that.

Trying to keep it to 30 companies or less for simplicity. Which isn't simple!

[Loki]

41 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I feel like a kid at Christmas buying up divi payers with money former employers gave me!

It's a great feeling isn't it. 

[Democorruptcy]

CEO of VOD leaving in Feb.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/v/vodafone-group-plc-usd0.20-2021/share-news

 

[Popuplights]

7 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

CEO of VOD leaving in Feb.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/v/vodafone-group-plc-usd0.20-2021/share-news

 

I doubt his wallet will be hurting at all..

[Popuplights]

On 14/12/2020 at 15:50, CVG said:

As folks were asking earlier .....

My XOM dividend hit my HL ISA today. Niiice!

Thank Darren Woods for that. Sacrifice the employees to save the Divi. Cunt.

I'm not bitter mind......😜

[janch]

Just came across this and maybe we do need to take it on board:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-renewable-energy-supermajors/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

I have hedged my bets somewhat as I also have some

INRG     iShares Global Clean Energy UCITS ETF USD

and

IEM  Impax Environmental Markets plc

as well as my oilies

                 DYOR etc

[Errol]

2 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Non divi:

AFC Energy, ITM Power, Horizonte, GDX, GDXJ, Intrepid Potash, Powerhouse Energy, Southwestern Energy, Vermillion Energy, Infrastrata.

Both GDX and GDXJ certainly pay dividends.

[Errol]

19 hours ago, wherebee said:

This.

If you read US goldbug forums very few use gold storage services, and those that do use ones in singapore and switzerland for this reason.

[Popuplights]

50 minutes ago, Errol said:

I may be naive, but they only way you own your Gold is to have it in your hand, your own house, or in a hole in your own garden. Nothing else. 

Declaration. I haven't got any...

[Barnsey]

Forward looking or priced for a perfect world?

 

[Noallegiance]

1 minute ago, Barnsey said:

Forward looking or priced for a perfect world?

 

Corporate profit expectations correlating with all time high money pumping? Again? Shocker.

[jamtomorrow]

15 hours ago, Loki said:

@janch It's the best thing I've seen posted on ZH for a long time 

Agreed, good article.

Closing remarks really interesting, and make a bullish case for incumbent oilies as new projects get harder to justify in an increasingly unstable/unpredictable market.

I wonder whether or how long big oil will be willing and able to smooth the peaks and troughs on divis if this is how it plays out. Mucking about with divis might become the new normal.

"Petroleum is now an unstable system and for all the reasons outlined above it cannot be restored to stability: just as time is a one-way arrow, so is the loss of stability.

What can we expect? Unstable systems are prone to wild swings to extremes and unpredictable collapses. So we may see collapses in the price of oil as we saw in March, and then rapid ascents in price above $100/barrel, which then crash once demand declines.

This unpredictability complicates projections and generates uncertainty. 

This is the final paradox (#4): the unpredictability of oil markets is itself a destabilizing force. Decisions on future production and consumption cannot be long-term, and this constrains investment in future production."

[Barnsey]

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

57 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

 

Trough to peak times on there are 40, 42 and 50 years. So why 25ish this time?

[Barnsey]

THIS. IS. BRILLIANT. Really important video to watch if you can spare the time, hugely appropriate for everyone here.

 

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Trough to peak times on there are 40, 42 and 50 years. So why 25ish this time?

Absolutely no idea , posted to illustrate direction of travel.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

Just now, Barnsey said:

Absolutely no idea , posted to illustrate direction of travel.

It is still interesting as it is clearly at an extreme. I guess 25 years is a more investable timeframe for most.

[Bricks & Mortar]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Trough to peak times on there are 40, 42 and 50 years. So why 25ish this time?

Seems, there's an interim peak, then a flattish (like the 60's) decade, before a final peak.

Also the top line is flattish, but with a slight upward curve.  Would the sudden increase in money supply around these times be bending that curve upward?

[Barnsey]

Very interesting and encouraging development for Heathrow. At first I thought it was because they no longer thought it had a chance of happening given demand shock, but I think it sends a clearer signal of competition infrastructure FOMO, and of greenlighting far more infrastructure projects than we'd imagine possible in this current hole.

Supreme Court lifts ban on Heathrow third runway

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55322340

[Barnsey]

Dave Hunter tweeting this today, just prior to the announcement of a $900 billion stimulus package, suggests to me that despite him saying otherwise, much of his melt up rally relies largely on these indiscriminate hand outs in an environment where sports betting is still largely shut down.

 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Barnsey said:

Dave Hunter tweeting this today, just prior to the announcement of a $900 billion stimulus package, suggests to me that despite him saying otherwise, much of his melt up rally relies largely on these indiscriminate hand outs in an environment where sports betting is still largely shut down.

 

 

Has it been finalised? The will they won't they has been orchestrating the markets for months.  I guess the proof will be if we get the melt up while they're still filibustering the deal

[Barnsey]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

 

Has it been finalised? The will they won't they has been orchestrating the markets for months.  I guess the proof will be if we get the melt up while they're still filibustering the deal

This is the latest

 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Barnsey said:

This is the latest

 

Nice one mate, I wasn't being lazy, you'd think something like that would be at the top of the Google results but no.