Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[leonardratso]

is that joe biden?

[dnb24]

56 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly.I see lots of systemic risk at 85,so if the BK doesnt hit between now and then the dollar keeps falling.If a big kahuna hits at 88 then the dollar will turn then.My target on the dollar has always been 88,because that should cause massive stress elsewhere,especially the euro area.However 85 could still be in play looking at liquidity flows and my roadmap has an extreme of 78 even on the dollar.That would bring forward the inflation by around 18 months and would probably see European Banks go under one after another.I dont think we will see 78,but it is an outlier on my road map.

Europe is in desperate trouble.The southern portion needs massive fiscal injections and Germany probably needs a 40% higher currency.The EU is a disaster,and it will be shown for one during the cycle ahead.They are going to get the inflation they dont want,input inflation.

 

Thanks DB, appreciate your answer

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, Barnsey said:

THIS. IS. BRILLIANT. Really important video to watch if you can spare the time, hugely appropriate for everyone here.

 

Debt service ratios as mentioned in this interview (https://www.bis.org/statistics/dsr.htm)

[nirvana]

IG cunts, don't use them, cunts......taken me out on an overnighter, it didn't hit my stop, liars.......if I complain they'll say 'ah yes the spread increases overnight' wankers, cunts from London......

good I'll sleep better now.....

[nirvana]

OIL BROKEN OUT!! 48s! We're loaded! 

Well, we wanna be free, we wanna be free to do what we wanna do
And we wanna get loaded and we wanna have a good time
And that's what we're gonna do (away baby, let's go)
We're gonna have a good time, we're gonna have a party

[Loki]

Was just going to post, DXY dropped overnight

[Green Devil]

11 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

IG cunts, don't use them, cunts......taken me out on an overnighter, it didn't hit my stop, liars.......if I complain they'll say 'ah yes the spread increases overnight' wankers, cunts from London......

good I'll sleep better now.....

Surely if you enter and then tell them where youre going to "TAKE a loser" and they make a profit, you shouldnt be surprised if they miraculously find your exit price ? 

[spygirl]

15 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

My dollar call is for 88,but 85 is also in play if no BK hits.Really pleased with the call down to 88 when it was 100 and it seemed everyone was a bull then.

Weakening dollar from around here down to 85 is putting the EU area at systemic risk as the Euro gains strength.Euro area needs the FED to QE much more than the Euro area.Instead of simply buying bonds the Euro area needs a massive boost to fiscal spending to lift GDP before they end up owning and even larger percentage of total debt.

If only it was that simple.....

German needs massive amounts spent on infrastructure. Large parts of the country is falling to bits.

The Southern bits need nothing spent on them. Its just throwing money after bad whilst the society is not reformed.

Spains placed it self at the front of EU fiscal slush fund. Itll be a disaster for all concerned.

What needs to happen in Spain, Portugal Italy and Greece is simple:

- Stop all spending on public sector pensions dead.

- Shutdown the public sector for a year and remploy people on much lower money.

- Strip away all employment and social spending - just copy Germany's Hartz rules.

- Set a minium EU pension age of 70. Outlaw any public sector employee drawing a pension before 70.

You cannot sort out Souther Europe by small incremental changes or EU slush money.

 

 

 

 

[nirvana]

the FED is the only game in town, you can stop listening to all the cunts on twatter and youtube 

the markets are flying on more FED liquidity overnight....

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20201216c.htm

Federal Reserve announces the extension of its temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap lines and the temporary repurchase agreement facility for foreign and international monetary authorities (FIMA repo facility) through September 30, 2021

[nirvana]

13 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Large parts of the country is falling to bits.

maybe but UK is a complete shitehole and  the infrastructure sucks arseholes....like the planners......and unlike France which is paradise in comparison.....enjoy your Brexit 

[spygirl]

2 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

maybe but UK is a complete shitehole and  the infrastructure sucks arseholes....like the planners......and unlike France which is paradise in comparison.....enjoy your Brexit 

UK is a shithole as we have too many people.

A large part of that too many includes 7m-9m EUers.

 

[nirvana]

Just now, spygirl said:

UK is a shithole as we have too many people.

A large part of that too many includes 7m-9m EUers.

 

yup you reap what you sow.....nation of landlords thanks to Thatcher and Blair.....why don't you start a revolution to try and stop the feudalism? 

[nirvana]

and haha BT is doing better than Vodafone 

Right I'm off now...back for Yankee action later 

[Democorruptcy]

15 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

and haha BT is doing better than Vodafone 

Right I'm off now...back for Yankee action later 

VOD went Ex-Dividend today.

[Bricks & Mortar]

59 minutes ago, spygirl said:

If only it was that simple.....

German needs massive amounts spent on infrastructure. Large parts of the country is falling to bits.

The Southern bits need nothing spent on them. Its just throwing money after bad whilst the society is not reformed.

Spains placed it self at the front of EU fiscal slush fund. Itll be a disaster for all concerned.

What needs to happen in Spain, Portugal Italy and Greece is simple:

- Stop all spending on public sector pensions dead.

- Shutdown the public sector for a year and remploy people on much lower money.

- Strip away all employment and social spending - just copy Germany's Hartz rules.

- Set a minium EU pension age of 70. Outlaw any public sector employee drawing a pension before 70.

You cannot sort out Souther Europe by small incremental changes or EU slush money.

 

 

 

 

I think there needs to be a differential for manual workers.  They're increasingly forgotten as the sector diminishes in size, and the need to lift pension age becomes more acute.
Neither the guy who lifts your bins, nor the lady who lifts your grandad, are gonna make it to 70.

[spygirl]

3 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I think there needs to be a differential for manual workers.  They're increasingly forgotten as the sector diminishes in size, and the need to lift pension age becomes more acute.
Neither the guy who lifts your bins, nor the lady who lifts your grandad, are gonna make it to 70.

I dont think there are any heavy manual workers in the EU public sector.

Theres little i nthe way opf social care in mainland Europe.

And grunt care work would be best done by some-one younger and stronger than a 55y+ woman.

 

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

If only it was that simple.....

 

What needs to happen in Spain, Portugal Italy and Greece is simple:...

 

Touche! 

[Bricks & Mortar]

14 hours ago, dnb24 said:

Durhamborn- can you tell us why you say dxy at 85 if no BK? My thoughts are if the DXY hits 85 - it will set off a derivative debt event in Europe - and that would be the BK.  
By no means is this critical of what you’re saying- just trying to learn

 

13 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly.I see lots of systemic risk at 85,so if the BK doesnt hit between now and then the dollar keeps falling.If a big kahuna hits at 88 then the dollar will turn then.My target on the dollar has always been 88,because that should cause massive stress elsewhere,especially the euro area.However 85 could still be in play looking at liquidity flows and my roadmap has an extreme of 78 even on the dollar.That would bring forward the inflation by around 18 months and would probably see European Banks go under one after another.I dont think we will see 78,but it is an outlier on my road map.

Europe is in desperate trouble.The southern portion needs massive fiscal injections and Germany probably needs a 40% higher currency.The EU is a disaster,and it will be shown for one during the cycle ahead.They are going to get the inflation they dont want,input inflation.

 

Would it be possible to explain 'derivative debt event' and why the chance increases in the eurozone as dxy goes lower?

For a simpleton?

[Green Devil]

24 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

 

Would it be possible to explain 'derivative debt event' and why the chance increases in the eurozone as dxy goes lower?

For a simpleton?

Google Margin Calls.

[The Idiocrat]

2 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

yup you reap what you sow.....nation of landlords thanks to Thatcher and Blair.....why don't you start a revolution to try and stop the feudalism? 

I was thinking of actually starting a “Feudalist Party”. Our manifesto would take all the policies from the other parties that would impoverish the British people. So it would be a pretty big manifesto! Might as well be open and honest with how they’re being fucked over.

[dnb24]

3 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

 

Would it be possible to explain 'derivative debt event' and why the chance increases in the eurozone as dxy goes lower?

For a simpleton?

Sorry BM, I may of confused you- my understanding is the EU is sitting on a derivative/debt crisis. As the DXY falls, the euro and other currencies will increase. 
As the ECB has been printing like crazy for past 5+ years, now the FED are doing the same the ECB will have nowhere to go/levers to pull as the euro heads higher with dollar falling. ECB is already using negative rates- how much more negative can they go (whilst sitting on zero growth=deflationary risk), whereas FED are still in positive territory- so still with ammunition.

I believe that stronger euro sees import prices driven down therefore commodities reduce in price = deflationary effect.

exports are reduced - on top of worst downturn on record for EU= deflationary effect.

Within the EU there is internal devaluation taking place, and has been for years - can be seen with the huge unemployment across Spain and Italy- this again has a deflationary effect as disposable incomes are in serious decline. A sudden sharp shock with euro strengthening = deflationary effect.

Debt- the erosion of debt is via inflation, if the EU sees significant deflation- the debt becomes even more unmanageable. 

As insurance company’s in Europe are balls deep in inflation derivatives I see the above causing a significant dislocation and insurance companies hitting the skids, having a huge knock on effect on the European banks.

[nirvana]

57 minutes ago, The Idiocrat said:

I was thinking of actually starting a “Feudalist Party”. Our manifesto would take all the policies from the other parties that would impoverish the British people. So it would be a pretty big manifesto! Might as well be open and honest with how they’re being fucked over.

good luck 

[nirvana]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

VOD went Ex-Dividend today.

 

[nirvana]

THE MARKET sniffed this move on Monday OR they had insider info more like

Look at cable go.......Daxxy smelt it yesterday too

Silver has broken out BUT gold and silver bugs, remember the FED hates you!!!

How have you performed vs stonks since March?

[Bricks & Mortar]

4 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

Sorry BM, I may of confused you- my understanding is the EU is sitting on a derivative/debt crisis. As the DXY falls, the euro and other currencies will increase. 
As the ECB has been printing like crazy for past 5+ years, now the FED are doing the same the ECB will have nowhere to go/levers to pull as the euro heads higher with dollar falling. ECB is already using negative rates- how much more negative can they go (whilst sitting on zero growth=deflationary risk), whereas FED are still in positive territory- so still with ammunition.

I believe that stronger euro sees import prices driven down therefore commodities reduce in price = deflationary effect.

exports are reduced - on top of worst downturn on record for EU= deflationary effect.

Within the EU there is internal devaluation taking place, and has been for years - can be seen with the huge unemployment across Spain and Italy- this again has a deflationary effect as disposable incomes are in serious decline. A sudden sharp shock with euro strengthening = deflationary effect.

Debt- the erosion of debt is via inflation, if the EU sees significant deflation- the debt becomes even more unmanageable. 

As insurance company’s in Europe are balls deep in inflation derivatives I see the above causing a significant dislocation and insurance companies hitting the skids, having a huge knock on effect on the European banks.

Thankyou, that's lots clearer.

And... Welp!  Presumably this one is high risk.  I'm about to take on a contract to build a wall for them.  Waiting for final designs, but expect the price is north of £50K.  Job likely underway around March.  I've done a little investigating, and believe its covered by the fscs, fingers crossed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ageas