Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Barnsey]

Just now, Loki said:

Nice one mate, I wasn't being lazy, you'd think something like that would be at the top of the Google results but no.

Not confirmed yet of course but he's pretty high up on the trusted source list. Can't help thinking Mr Hunter has some insider connections given his timing 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Barnsey said:

Not confirmed yet of course but he's pretty high up on the trusted source list. Can't help thinking Mr Hunter has some insider connections given his timing 

Bound to have at least some sort of contact list built up over the years.  Don't we all in our career?

"Mate, just a quick one...do you know anything about-"

As long as he is correct I don't care if he throws stones in a pond and counts the ripples

[Barnsey]

And bitcoin breaks above $20k, brace and grab the popcorn...

[Barnsey]

And one more update, note these "checks" will be going straight into the pockets of the retail investor crowd.

 

[Popuplights]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

And one more update, note these "checks" will be going straight into the pockets of the retail investor crowd.

 

Time to buy Tesla???

[Bricormortis]

Very black Friday har har...

USA Retail sales down most in 7 months

3 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

Time to buy Tesla???

I got some tulip bulbs 

[sancho panza]

On 15/12/2020 at 15:46, Loki said:

 that pic

 

The only point I'm going to even attempt a cheeky trade is when we see the general consensus of DXY ~88, oil ~$55, as after that a bust is expected but not guaranteed to knock everything down.

Other than that for the next 10 years I plan to just sit and collect dividends, but a chance to sell the lot at current prices and get a once in a life time do-over of March is too much for someone in my position to ignore.

Must say @DurhamBorn recently reconfirmed when I asked about dollar bottom around 92 and we had a discussion about kaplan calling a bottom.DB wins again.Fair play.

Dollar looks like it's heading lower especially with stimulus in teh offing.My predictive abilities are poor but some good minds seeing it that way..

Although it's going to be interesting watching that video from @Barnsey when I get time see if there's any ideas when teh infaltion will show in the data.

1 yr chart looks gloomy even without any lines on it.

persoanlly,given we're stacked up with oilies,looking how else to play this,no goldies really dropped that much in the last two months to good value levels.I'm still looking at BVN and MCM at $12-50 and $20 but there's not much else screaming value

 

2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Dave Hunter tweeting this today, just prior to the announcement of a $900 billion stimulus package, suggests to me that despite him saying otherwise, much of his melt up rally relies largely on these indiscriminate hand outs in an environment where sports betting is still largely shut down.

 

I would suspect large stimulus was always part of that call barnsey.It's what I got wrong for the decade after 2008 tbh.kept thinking they'd stop and they never did.

[Loki]

Cheers @sancho panza It's all a bit tepid right now isn't it

[sancho panza]

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-stockpiles-fell-31-million-barrels-last-week--eia-2370029

Investing.com --  Oil stockpiles fell more than expected in the latest week, according to a report by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday.

Crude inventories fell 3.1 million barrels last week, compared with analysts' expectations for a 1.937 million-barrel drawdown.

Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 167,000 barrels in the week against expectations for a build of 886,000 barrels, the EIA data showed.

Refinery crude runs fell 253,000 barrels in the last week, EIA said. The weekly refinery utilization rate was 0.8% according to the report.

Gasoline inventories rose 1 million barrels last week the EIA said, compared with expectations for a 1.6 million-barrel build.

"It must be a welcome relief to oil bulls to see crude stocks actually falling more than anticipated for last week after the previous week’s humongous 15-million barrel build,"

Just now, Loki said:

Cheers @sancho panza It's all a bit tepid right now isn't it

what the goldies?

Sorry off on a night shift in a bit so may not reply tongith

[Loki]

1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

what the goldies?

Yup 

[Majorpain]

24 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Although it's going to be interesting watching that video from @Barnsey when I get time see if there's any ideas when teh infaltion will show in the data.

I enjoyed it, and not just because he agrees with me on EU and China!  

[DurhamBorn]

My dollar call is for 88,but 85 is also in play if no BK hits.Really pleased with the call down to 88 when it was 100 and it seemed everyone was a bull then.

Weakening dollar from around here down to 85 is putting the EU area at systemic risk as the Euro gains strength.Euro area needs the FED to QE much more than the Euro area.Instead of simply buying bonds the Euro area needs a massive boost to fiscal spending to lift GDP before they end up owning and even larger percentage of total debt.

[JMD]

On 15/12/2020 at 14:46, Loki said:

The only point I'm going to even attempt a cheeky trade is when we see the general consensus of DXY ~88, oil ~$55, as after that a bust is expected but not guaranteed to knock everything down.

Other than that for the next 10 years I plan to just sit and collect dividends, but a chance to sell the lot at current prices and get a once in a life time do-over of March is too much for someone in my position to ignore.

I receive the (free) Evergreen weekly newsletter, which also includes a like/dislike macro type overview. Mostly their investment choices stay same (as they would as it is a long term strategy), but any changes /mods they put in bold... this week they said (link below, includes sign-up): 

'As an overarching recommendation, present market conditions have become so hyper-bullish that this author is suggesting significant profit-taking...'

Likes/Dislikes - December 11, 2020 - Evergreen Gavekal

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Although it's going to be interesting watching that video from @Barnsey when I get time see if there's any ideas when teh infaltion will show in the data.

If you are watching it anyway make some notes and give us a quick summary. When I saw 1hr 16m without a message about it containing adult themes or scenes that would upset some viewers, I switched it off.

[harp]

5 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Dave Hunter tweeting this today, just prior to the announcement of a $900 billion stimulus package, suggests to me that despite him saying otherwise, much of his melt up rally relies largely on these indiscriminate hand outs in an environment where sports betting is still largely shut down.

 

Great! Soon as a little pump starts up he pops! A fucking massive down day tomorrow.

[Hunty]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

,no goldies really dropped that much in the last two months to good value levels.I'm still looking at BVN and MCM at $12-50 and $20 but there's not much else screaming value

HOC 196p

Xmas gift

[CVG]

You have to love some of these targeted ETF's. I spotted this one while looking for something else:

iShares IV plc Ageing Population UCITS ETF USD (GBP) (AGES)

Not bad performance either

 

[dnb24]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

My dollar call is for 88,but 85 is also in play if no BK hits.Really pleased with the call down to 88 when it was 100 and it seemed everyone was a bull then.

Weakening dollar from around here down to 85 is putting the EU area at systemic risk as the Euro gains strength.Euro area needs the FED to QE much more than the Euro area.Instead of simply buying bonds the Euro area needs a massive boost to fiscal spending to lift GDP before they end up owning and even larger percentage of total debt.

Durhamborn- can you tell us why you say dxy at 85 if no BK? My thoughts are if the DXY hits 85 - it will set off a derivative debt event in Europe - and that would be the BK.  
By no means is this critical of what you’re saying- just trying to learn

[DurhamBorn]

9 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

Durhamborn- can you tell us why you say dxy at 85 if no BK? My thoughts are if the DXY hits 85 - it will set off a derivative debt event in Europe - and that would be the BK.  
By no means is this critical of what you’re saying- just trying to learn

Exactly.I see lots of systemic risk at 85,so if the BK doesnt hit between now and then the dollar keeps falling.If a big kahuna hits at 88 then the dollar will turn then.My target on the dollar has always been 88,because that should cause massive stress elsewhere,especially the euro area.However 85 could still be in play looking at liquidity flows and my roadmap has an extreme of 78 even on the dollar.That would bring forward the inflation by around 18 months and would probably see European Banks go under one after another.I dont think we will see 78,but it is an outlier on my road map.

Europe is in desperate trouble.The southern portion needs massive fiscal injections and Germany probably needs a 40% higher currency.The EU is a disaster,and it will be shown for one during the cycle ahead.They are going to get the inflation they dont want,input inflation.

 

[Loki]

Great question, great answer. 

[Loki]

7 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Dave Hunter tweeting this today, just prior to the announcement of a $900 billion stimulus package, suggests to me that despite him saying otherwise, much of his melt up rally relies largely on these indiscriminate hand outs in an environment where sports betting is still largely shut down.

[nirvana]

59 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

derivative debt event

what's that? caused by too strong €?

Madame is in control, n'est ce pas? 

 

[leonardratso]

i dont think esther ranzen will be able to control this.

[nirvana]

47 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Europe is in desperate trouble

maybe but there's plenty of space to run away and hide ......there's nowhere to run in the UK...... it's too full and too full of Rachmans and Rachman wannabies...

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, leonardratso said:

i dont think esther ranzen will be able to control this.

she's coming to see you this friday....