Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

The first hedge I ever used was a bet on Greece in the Final of Euro 2000 and something when I had Portugal in the work sweepstake.

I wish I'd edged 0-0 when years ago I backed Liverpool to beat Sheff Wed at Anfield. Liverpool hit the post a dozen times had 18 cleared off the line etc. The morning after because it had skinted me I had to go to the job centre. Started a job the Monday after but didn't get paid in time to have anything to put on Liverpool when they easily won the replay away at Sheffield. That was the end of my first spell of pro puntering! It was a shocker of a winter and all the horse racing had been abandoned (before the All Weather started). Fucking football.

[Errol]

2 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Interesting theory from Mr Schiff today suggesting that Bitcoin taking the spotlight from gold does central banks a favour because they don't consider Bitcoin a threat. 

I've been thinking this as well. My gut tells me something is not right. It's almost like people are being herded into Bitcoin/Crypto (and away from gold or anything else). CNBC and other media outlets are full of bitcoin this and bitcoin that.

Also there is the incessant nonsense about Bitcoin versus gold, when hardly any gold 'bugs' would even mention it (they don't care). But you can barely look at a gold post on Twitter without someone replying with 'bitcoin is better' etc.

It's also becoming increasingly strange that every article or media slot about bitcoin features a picture of bitcoin depicted as a gold coin (!).

[sancho panza]

another red flag looms on the road to the BK in the copper price ....history doesn't repeat etc.Waiting on the for a copper peak and  oil price to run and nat gas.

The trends are falling into place

hot on the heels of

1)the UK credit downturn,happening in the US too,when the stress is on.

 

2) US bong yields rising

3) EUR/USD uptrend.Despite Euro money supply surging

 

 

 

 

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

The first hedge I ever used was a bet on Greece in the Final of Euro 2000 and something when I had Portugal in the work sweepstake.

The first 'hedge' i ever used was on the way back home from the pub... sorry Yadda couldn't resist.

[sancho panza]

2 minutes ago, Errol said:

I've been thinking this as well. My gut tells me something is not right. It's almost like people are being herded into Bitcoin/Crypto (and away from gold or anything else). CNBC and other media outlets are full of bitcoin this and bitcoin that.

Also there is the incessant nonsense about Bitcoin versus gold, when hardly any gold 'bugs' would even mention it (they don't care). But you can hardly look at a gold post on Twitter without someone replying with 'bitcoin is better' etc.

It's also becoming increasingly strange that every article or media slot about bitcoin features a picture of bitcoin depicted as a gold coin (!).

@Cattle Prod made an excellent point t'other day regarding the market cap of Bitcoin.

As you say it gets made into a competition between the two but there's little correlation short/medium term,and a lot of gold bugs myself wouldn't buy crypto(admire those who do and understand it).

 

[Noallegiance]

20 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

another red flag looms on the road to the BK in the copper price ....history doesn't repeat etc.Waiting on the for a copper peak and  oil price to run and nat gas.

The trends are falling into place

hot on the heels of

1)the UK credit downturn,happening in the US too,when the stress is on.

 

2) US bong yields rising

3) EUR/USD uptrend.Despite Euro money supply surging

 

 

 

 

It's this sort of thing that makes me want to wait for the effects of a) the lag of the massive printing 10 months ago combined with b) the next Democrat-sponsored monster print before perhaps selling 20-30% of my portfolio for the gains and await the bust.

I'm beginning to lean toward the idea that it'll be a Q3 or Q4 event. 

It's like playing virtual chicken.

Edit to add: if I miss it I won't be bothered. I have a little cash on the sidelines anyway. I'm invested in the right areas and still have 25+ years until retirement!

[jamtomorrow]

32 minutes ago, Errol said:

I've been thinking this as well. My gut tells me something is not right. It's almost like people are being herded into Bitcoin/Crypto (and away from gold or anything else). CNBC and other media outlets are full of bitcoin this and bitcoin that.

Also there is the incessant nonsense about Bitcoin versus gold, when hardly any gold 'bugs' would even mention it (they don't care). But you can barely look at a gold post on Twitter without someone replying with 'bitcoin is better' etc.

It's also becoming increasingly strange that every article or media slot about bitcoin features a picture of bitcoin depicted as a gold coin (!).

I wonder how much of that is down to Schiff. For a goldbug and self-professed crypto sceptic, he spends and awful lot of time watching BTC price action and posting on twitter, completely unprompted much of the time.

Never fails to get engagement from crypto twitter, which I suppose is why he does it. Certainly makes for some entertaining pantomime.

Here's a recent example:

 

[geordie_lurch]

6 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Bitcoin got to over £27,800 earlier this morning

Up over £1000 again to £28,838 

[Harley]

On 06/01/2021 at 00:52, JMD said:

Sobering post Harley given your background.

Good post of yours.  Went for a long jomp across the hills with the dog yesterday.  A surge of that old belligerent energy, that wry smile, and a reminder you play your own game, no others.  Whatever, no fecks given.  Eff all the doubling down sub-standard technocrats with their Canute like failures and pathetic hubris.  Yes, the decay of institutions.  This virus will run until it too burns itself.  They should have learnt to leave well alone.  Battles are won at the margins and that's the place to be.  Now is the time to hunker down, to progress with stealth and daring.  To be grey but resolute and walk your own path as all around you loses its.

[Option5]

14 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Up over £1000 again to £28,838 

A runaway train?

[leonardratso]

12 minutes ago, Option5 said:

A runaway train?

lets hope so, but the derailment wont be purdy.

[Don Coglione]

21 minutes ago, Option5 said:

A runaway train?

Elon Musk is driving...

[JMD]

37 minutes ago, Option5 said:

A runaway train?

🌈 Bitcoin Rainbow Chart (live) - Blockchaincenter

According to this commentator we are now entering 'Is this a bubble?' territory... but apparently still have 'fomo' to go... nb following the 'rainbow' should never be taken as literal investment advise!

For those here that hold, lots of other stats on the site also. The bitcoin supply chart is good, very granular - it even includes the infamous '10,000btc pizza purchase of 2010'!!

(German but there is a translate function)

[Barnsey]

Interpret as you wish 

 

[DurhamBorn]

5 hours ago, Loki said:

True. A market/strategy guy then. I want to understand the movements

The first rule,dont look at a day,look at a few weeks minimum,remember markets are never linear,they go where they are going in their own time.

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The first rule,dont look at a day,look at a few weeks minimum,remember markets are never linear,they go where they are going in their own time.

One of the top things I've learned on this thread, and helped me through the red days   

I was just curious if such a sudden divergence could be taken as a sign of anything.  

I guess not!

[Harley]

23 hours ago, Hancock said:

Yes have to take my hat off to you and thankyou you for giving me the bollocks/ intelligence to start investing money in shares again, thanks to your reasoning and simplifying of things.

Last time i owned shares before this SIPP was prior to the 2007 crash .... i sold the lot just months before the crash and have been like a rabbit in the headlights ever since, waiting for pwopertee prices to crash.

Should add it was April 2018 that i opened this SIPP with a few grand and as of tonight, the SIPP/ISA and Junior ISA are worth £120k ... not bad for someone who works about 500 hours a year!

Hope it all crashes again soon as within a few months should have added another 40-50k in cash. But is it upwards from here?

I'm impressed with what you've managed to do.

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

it even includes the infamous '10,000btc pizza purchase of 2010'!!

I bet the pizza was crap as well, not as good as the pizza made by posters on here.

[geordie_lurch]

The madness continues as Elon Musk becomes the richest person in the world as his 'wealth' tops $185bn via BBC

"Mr Musk's electric car company Tesla has surged in value this year, and hit a market value of $700bn (£516bn) for the first time on Wednesday.

That makes the car company worth more than Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai, GM and Ford combined."
 

[Hancock]

Just now, Harley said:

I'm impressed with what you've managed to do.

Me too considering i also raise a kid alone (parents assist when i'm away), and i've had barely any work in first 6 months of lockdown.

Plan from now is to put 10-15k a year into the SIPP for another 10 years. Will be 55 then and will save 50k to live on until 60 and then just live off dividends ..... Best laid plans and all that though.

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 minute ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I bet the pizza was crap as well, not as good as the pizza made by posters on here.

Haha, I'm making a pizza right now!

[Harley]

3 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Best laid plans and all that though

But you've sussed the process for this and that.  All the rest is noise!

[Hancock]

Just now, Bobthebuilder said:

I bet the pizza was crap as well, not as good as the pizza made by posters on here.

My have gone down hill a bit, Tesco have stopped selling Pizza Express Passata, with only Ocada doing so ... and they don't deliver to my address.

Tesco sell Mutti brand which is alright but theyre a bit to keen on adding herbs in there.

Might get a couple of dozen tins sent to a friends house to collect them.
https://www.ocado.com/products/pizza-express-passata-78804011

[Bobthebuilder]

3 minutes ago, Hancock said:

My have gone down hill a bit, Tesco have stopped selling Pizza Express Passata, with only Ocada doing so ... and they don't deliver to my address.

Tesco sell Mutti brand which is alright but theyre a bit to keen on adding herbs in there.

Might get a couple of dozen tins sent to a friends house to collect them.
https://www.ocado.com/products/pizza-express-passata-78804011

Make your own tomato sauce, it will save you a few bob that you can add to that SIPP.

[Barnsey]

I don't care what anyone's stance is on the virus frankly, but this B117 strain is now being detected across much of the US in folks with no travel history.

As the melt up gathers exponential pace, especially with stimulus being upped to $2000 and forbearance likely to be extended, be careful. Yes markets are forward looking but the States isn't remotely ready for what we're going through here, 6-8 weeks from now is the estimate from Danish CDC equivalent.

We might not make it to the policy mistake stage at this rate.