Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Hancock said:

Pizza Express sauce is 10/10, tried doing my own but cant get near it, they've got the magic recipe.

Been leaving my dough out for a 3 days or more, yeast stinks of alcohol but it makes them even crispier.

Aldi now do a passata sauce with basil and oregano about 79p for a big bottle.Its really good.I freeze half and use half for 4 pizzas.

[Bricormortis]

 

 

 

27 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Off topic but they're probably shit scared that squaddies have been enlisted to jab them with the vaccine.

All this talk of getting the army involved has ended any 0.0000000000000000001% chance i had of taking the vaccine. The thought of some dopey squaddie fresh out the nick for scrapping out in town the previous night;  sticking needles into my arm to inject some of Bill Gates magic juice inside ... does not appeal in the slightest.

They really have overplayed this squaddies are heroes lark to think they're even vaguely capable of such a task.

Back to topic .....

Ive given loads of injections. Nothing to it, but you do need to know what to do if someone keels over.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Talking Monkey said:

All the stuff international we talk about here eg exxon, chevron, nutrien, K&S, telenor, telia etc I've bought on HL, would they be not be in the correct or safest format as I recall we discussed something about risks of holding stuff through a nominee account

 

Probably fine but I don't much like the structure or liquidity of CDIs and they do not cover markets like Asia which have been on a tear.  The US stuff is easy enough to buy direct in most accounts.  Maybe just me being me.

[ONC]

interesting article  from Jeremy Grantham (retired long term statagistnat GMU) entitled,

“Waiting for the last dance:  The hazards of assist allocation in late stage major bubble”

https://www.gmo.com/europe/research-library/waiting-for-the-last-dance/

 

lots of good stuff that I am still digesting it. Love this quote about Tesla

” .. my favourite Tesla tidbit is that it’s market cap now over $600 billion, amounts to over $1.25million per car sold each year, versus $9000 per car for General Motors. What had 1929 got to equal that?”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[M S E Refugee]

If there are any RMG fans in the house we have just had our local figures through for Christmas and they are up massively from last year.

[Talking Monkey]

31 minutes ago, ONC said:

interesting article  from Jeremy Grantham (retired long term statagistnat GMU) entitled,

“Waiting for the last dance:  The hazards of assist allocation in late stage major bubble”

https://www.gmo.com/europe/research-library/waiting-for-the-last-dance/

 

lots of good stuff that I am still digesting it. Love this quote about Tesla

” .. my favourite Tesla tidbit is that it’s market cap now over $600 billion, amounts to over $1.25million per car sold each year, versus $9000 per car for General Motors. What had 1929 got to equal that?”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Absolute belter of an article, well worth a read

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, Bricormortis said:

 

 

 

Ive given loads of injections. Nothing to it, but you do need to know what to do if someone keels over.

Call the nurse ?

[Talking Monkey]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

My money's on Royal Marines, 45 Commando. I've met a few US Marine Force Recon chaps on my travels and Harley reminds me of them!

I'm going with Army

[leonardratso]

20 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

Call the nurse ?

i believe bricor may have branched out from injecting people(wimmin?) with his special syringe;

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/fake-doctor-performed-circumcisions-children-9555162

[Loki]

1 hour ago, ONC said:

interesting article  from Jeremy Grantham (retired long term statagistnat GMU) entitled,

“Waiting for the last dance:  The hazards of assist allocation in late stage major bubble”

https://www.gmo.com/europe/research-library/waiting-for-the-last-dance/

 

lots of good stuff that I am still digesting it. Love this quote about Tesla

” .. my favourite Tesla tidbit is that it’s market cap now over $600 billion, amounts to over $1.25million per car sold each year, versus $9000 per car for General Motors. What had 1929 got to equal that?”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Absolutely brilliant thanks for sharing

[RJT1979]

My dad had a 900k sipp last march. He lost 300k in the sell off. I told him to sell everything but didn't listen. He stayed invested but swapped into gold miners hydrogen and ev stocks. He now has 1.7m. Its unbelievable. I have told him to sell everything but don't think he will. Surely a crash coming within days. Does anybody know anyone who has done so well with a broad portfolio of stocks? Not just got lucky on a 30 bagger with 50k down. He has been using an online stock advisor service that he paid 5k for 5 years ago. Parents already have million quid house and don't spend anything much. I asked about giving more to myself and siblings but don't think he wants to pay 40pc tax. Crazy world.

[dgul]

3 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Personally I would trust the squaddies over anyone else.

And army medics 100x over NHS.

[wherebee]

Through the roof today and yesterday for oilies and others.  

Problem is I am now getting the urge to sell and lock in some profits ahead of the BK - but could be 6 months early during which time the value shares I sell will rocket up more and more.

I did sell the rest of one uranium miner, which put me 110% up on it in under a month.  Not a huge amount, turned 1k into 2k, but that's nice.

dilemmas.  dilemmas.

[Hardhat]

3 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Through the roof today and yesterday for oilies and others.  

Problem is I am now getting the urge to sell and lock in some profits ahead of the BK - but could be 6 months early during which time the value shares I sell will rocket up more and more.

I did sell the rest of one uranium miner, which put me 110% up on it in under a month.  Not a huge amount, turned 1k into 2k, but that's nice.

dilemmas.  dilemmas.

I'm holding or adding oil and telecoms through another crash, but will take profits in PMs and a few other sectors if we hit some of the DaveH meltup targets (or aren't far off).

A few companies like Siemens are on my buy list for a BK. I think we will get one at some point. Then again, BP and Shell are only 20% off their March lows - it's not a bubble in commods, just in a few giant cap tech stocks and bitcoin, so who knows if the BK will even hit commods?

I've also been taking some cash off the table for a few months, although I have just gambled most of my cash pile on ARB.

[RJT1979]

This bubble won't burst until slow jo is in the oval office. Maybe a few months after.

[Metalheadz]

I'm interested to hear peoples strategies related to the BK. I think it's pretty much nailed on for this year, every day I read something new and think "this is nuts" and I'm sure it can't go on much longer. Elon Musk becoming the world richest man today feels like the perfect "shoeshine boy" indicator for me.

I'm sitting on a pile of "high risk" mining stocks and I have no intention of riding them through a BK. I did a bit of research and the average drop in March for my current portfolio was 50-70% so I'm pretty confident they'll get hammered. I dodged March completely (being a conspiracy nut-job is occasionally helpful) but not sure I'll have so much warning next time.

I'm hoping for DH style parabolic metals top around March/April that will give me a nice opportunity to cash out and then run for the hills... or at least rotate in something more dull and liquid. I get horrible FOMO and have zero patience but if I see DH's calls playing out I should be able to stick to my plan.

I've been updating stop losses each weekend but have had to keep them very loose - e.g. 25%+ as these things jump all over the place. For some large positions I've set multiple stops e.g. 15%, 20%, 25% as they'll be harder to offload. My platform (II) doesn't let me set stop losses for Australian shares so those are giving me sleepless nights - those will be the first to go.

The other thing that keeps me awake at night is GREED - I have nice gains on these already but the thought of cashing out at the top then buying back in at 70% off is quite exciting. Could save me a few years of working!

[Hunty]

Guys.

Why is it Retail investors. Find it easier to sit on a loss rather than a profit.

Don't sell BP. It's as cheap as chips.

We'll see a 4 handle this year.

The institution bandits want your shares. Don't sell.

I'm in @ 96k shares @ £250k. Would I sell. Go figure.

It's a bond paying 6% per annum along with capital growth.

Go figure. Buy in the dips. Hold long.

GLA...

[wherebee]

2 hours ago, Hunty said:

Guys.

Why is it Retail investors. Find it easier to sit on a loss rather than a profit.

Don't sell BP. It's as cheap as chips.

We'll see a 4 handle this year.

The institution bandits want your shares. Don't sell.

I'm in @ 96k shares @ £250k. Would I sell. Go figure.

It's a bond paying 6% per annum along with capital growth.

Go figure. Buy in the dips. Hold long.

GLA...

I know you're right.  

But I also know my fingers are itchy.  I just have to go chop down trees until they stop.

[ThoughtCriminal]

On 06/01/2021 at 13:54, Rave said:

Yes, that Ferguson, whose continued presence as a government advisor is what precipitated JMD's original post that I responded to. I took no issue with his observation of this fact.

 

Who's doing that then mate? Because if you think it's me, you very clearly need to try and improve your reading comprehension skills beyond primary school level.

You defended him. And got shown up because you're not acquainted with facts you clown. 

 

Run along sunshine. 

[CVG]

10 hours ago, Hancock said:

This is why i've dumped so much into my SIPP as to avoid income tax and by default getting child tax credits. Got a decent batch of money arriving soon once invoices are paid up to drop into the SIPP, then can save another 20-30k by the end of summer .. so should have 40/50K ish in cash if there is an epic crash in the coming months. Not sure whether to gamble that there will be or not.

Just a quick reminder for anyone who can (I know i Know) to pay into a Junior SIPP for their children. £2880 paid in and £720 added by the taxman, per year.

[geordie_lurch]

54 minutes ago, CVG said:

Just a quick reminder for anyone who can (I know i Know) to pay into a Junior SIPP for their children. £2880 paid in and £720 added by the taxman, per year.

I'm early 40s and haven't even started a SIPP for myself yet as never been in the position to but this last 12 months I have finally been able to max my ISA allowance for the first time. I'm hoping to try and do that each year for several years and if I can also commit a little to a SIPP too but I don't like my cash being locked into that until the Government say I can have access to it

Thanks again all on this thread for giving me the confidence to finally get my current stocks and shares ISA set up rather than cash ISAs

[Democorruptcy]

17 hours ago, Errol said:

I've been thinking this as well. My gut tells me something is not right. It's almost like people are being herded into Bitcoin/Crypto (and away from gold or anything else). CNBC and other media outlets are full of bitcoin this and bitcoin that.

Also there is the incessant nonsense about Bitcoin versus gold, when hardly any gold 'bugs' would even mention it (they don't care). But you can barely look at a gold post on Twitter without someone replying with 'bitcoin is better' etc.

It's also becoming increasingly strange that every article or media slot about bitcoin features a picture of bitcoin depicted as a gold coin (!).

Thanks for the info Errol. I had no idea Bitcoin was so much more popular than gold now. Thanks again for the tip and bringing this to light.

[Barnsey]

Confirmation somewhat of my house hunting experience shared on here in recent weeks

 

[Hancock]

2 hours ago, CVG said:

Just a quick reminder for anyone who can (I know i Know) to pay into a Junior SIPP for their children. £2880 paid in and £720 added by the taxman, per year.

Ive just stuck the child tax credit money in there. you saying they'll put even more in for me? Or are you talking about from taxable income?

[Barnsey]

One of the key relationships to pay attention to right now