Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

@Cattle Prod i see a big risk at Brent  $58 to $60 for a pull back based on my dollar liquidity work.Interesting to see if that happens or not.However after that its a long run up ahead.Id actually be really pleased if the supply falls see oil through $60 and onward.Oil at $80 could be on and it would likely provide us with a big choice to make.Take then huge profits off the table and wait for the BK,it wont be far behind,or hold through it.Im torn at the moment as my road map is clear on gas being the best performing asset after silver in the cycle ahead and im very concerned to try to trade around the rise and end up out of the stocks.

One things for certain,its a bloody nice place to be worrying and doing work on that.If we get gaps filled on the stocks people who arent invested should use that chance to top up.

 

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

saw it on twatter, some geezer said it should have been $128B lol

FED Clarida is on the wires too talking like a turkey re Bond purchases and some other geezer was 'talking like a turkey' too lol

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-harker-says-qe-tapering-may-begin-late-2021-goldman-says-not-so-fast

*CLARIDA: CAN BE QUITE SOME TIME BEFORE WE THINK ABOUT TAPERING

I have them tapering 2 months after 3% inflation prints twice,if they do it before they will cause a massive financial dislocation.They need a few more trillion,not billion 

[nirvana]

6 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

You've just reminded me of this classic from 8 years ago

thanks I had to do a replay on those 'bouncy buttocks' 

I noticed Timmy Geithner in there, one of biggest wankers ever to be Treasury Secretary 

[nirvana]

22 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yes, short term puts, long term calls. Nothing fancy like MvR can do, and hasnt fully hedged todays call loss, but it pays me when there is a dip like this to buy the dip if I want to.

watching 1850 on CFD........don't wanna hold over the weekend cos I might get raped come Sunday night 

[nirvana]

11 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

watching 1850 on CFD

it's gone! 25 on Silver looking vulnerable too 

[Loki]

13 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

it's gone! 25 on Silver looking vulnerable too 

24.9

[Noallegiance]

 

 

 

[kibuc]

32 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

@Cattle Prodmy road map is clear on gas being the best performing asset after silver in the cycle ahead

Silver is pain.

[nirvana]

talking about holding the line, this is a good movie for the weekend The King https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7984766/

Gonna have to go, been on the special soup and laughing too much now 

[harp]

42 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Silver is pain.

I wonderwhat triggered the sell off in PM's? I've looked everywhere for the answer. Then I found it!
That twat David Hunter's tweet 4 days ago after yet another little pump. Up he fucking pops to say it's all systems go! The VERY next day it starts to drop. They should put that cunt out to grass.

[Loki]

1 hour ago, harp said:

I wonderwhat triggered the sell off in PM's? I've looked everywhere for the answer. Then I found it!
That twat David Hunter's tweet 4 days ago after yet another little pump. Up he fucking pops to say it's all systems go! The VERY next day it starts to drop. They should put that cunt out to grass.

Was it you that noticed it that time before? 

It's uncanny 

[working woman]

Nigel Farage - Love him or loath  him............. 

I have just been on YouTube and wierdly an advert with Nigel Farage appeared.

He was promoting a free website and newsletter https://fortuneandfreedom.com that he is involved in, aimed at the ordinary man/woman in the street.

There are several articles and video interviews. It is an interesting read, he talks about Covid-19, vaccines, the lockdowns, Brexit obviously, inflation coming next,  gold, cryptocurrencies, where the UK will go after Brexit, what will happen to the EU.  He is looking / thinking long term.

Would be interesting to hear what people think.

No idea why that advert came up, I keep getting bl**dy grammarly ones.

Please excuse any poor spelllling and gramma :)

 

[Green Devil]

2 hours ago, kibuc said:

Silver is pain.

Buy the Dip  

[Bobthebuilder]

35 minutes ago, working woman said:

Please excuse any poor spelllling and gramma

Did not download grammarly then?

I added some HMY today, been on my list for a while. Using a ladder approach these days, takes the emotion out. Lesson learnt, thank you everyone.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

54 minutes ago, working woman said:

Nigel Farage - Love him or loath  him............. 

I have just been on YouTube and wierdly an advert with Nigel Farage appeared.

He was promoting a free website and newsletter https://fortuneandfreedom.com that he is involved in, aimed at the ordinary man/woman in the street.

There are several articles and video interviews. It is an interesting read, he talks about Covid-19, vaccines, the lockdowns, Brexit obviously, inflation coming next,  gold, cryptocurrencies, where the UK will go after Brexit, what will happen to the EU.  He is looking / thinking long term.

Would be interesting to hear what people think.

No idea why that advert came up, I keep getting bl**dy grammarly ones.

Please excuse any poor spelllling and gramma

 

 

I liked Nigel Farage until he sided with the DEVIL..!

 

Check out the video below ...

 

Besides what can Farage / Nick Hubble...give ya what YOU can't get here right on this OUTSTANDING remarkable Thread ?

 

Look...I'm NOT the sharpest pencil in the box, (buying at the TOP mostly lol  ) ....HOWEVER, logged in HL today to read a secure message, AND see my portfolio is UP now by 32%!

 

[working woman]

56 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Did not download grammarly then?

Obviowsly knot  

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, working woman said:

Nigel Farage - Love him or loath  him............. 

I have just been on YouTube and wierdly an advert with Nigel Farage appeared.

He was promoting a free website and newsletter https://fortuneandfreedom.com that he is involved in, aimed at the ordinary man/woman in the street.

There are several articles and video interviews. It is an interesting read, he talks about Covid-19, vaccines, the lockdowns, Brexit obviously, inflation coming next,  gold, cryptocurrencies, where the UK will go after Brexit, what will happen to the EU.  He is looking / thinking long term.

Would be interesting to hear what people think.

No idea why that advert came up, I keep getting bl**dy grammarly ones.

Please excuse any poor spelllling and gramma

 

I've been on the Fortune & Freedom mailing list since it started.

Load of salesman bullshit and hours of videos without actually being helpful. Subscription required for 'the good stuff' of course.

Nothing new for those here assembled.

[Errol]

5 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

You've just reminded me of this classic from 8 years ago.

I always liked this one as well:

 

[Loki]

5 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yes, I've been waiting for this one. 

I got very excited last night when I saw Art had revised his model to where I am on his slides, I think I mentioned I challenged him on some of his assumptions, like extrapolating tight decline to conventional. I wondered would he reference the exchange on the podcast, but actually Erik did. Full credit to him, he didn't hide, admitted he was wrong and revised his model. That's how science works: challenge -> revision, ad nauseum. I emailed Erik this morning about one or two other weaknesses in the analysis to ask him to bring it up with Art next time. He agreed with my point.

Anyway, my view hasn't changed, though the continuation of lockdows is clearly delaying inventory clearing. I thought end Q4, but I'll go along with what Art suggests of another 6 weeks. So mid Feb. The key point is that it's not going to magically stop there. Yes, OPEC will start releasing oil, but when Saudi unilaterally cuts, it tells you they want much higher oil. Saudi exports to the US last week were zero, for the first time in decades. Saudi are no longer afraid of US shale, they know they can't respond to a price spike like Saudi can: Art's work on the leads and lags for this is very good, and reflects the experience of someone who actually drills wells. I had to shut down my last well because of inexperience crew (either that or lose an arm) too, and it's no joke trying to staff these things up after a downturn. Many of them are making a fortune driving trucks right now.

So the fun to watch will be as inventory levels go toward around minus 40m bbl. As you can see on his plot, when that happens prices spike (ignore his green line, he'll be deleting that in a few months time). We could be there by early summer. Art sees 65 WTI, so 70 Brent. I see a case for 80 Brent, I think Erik is more bullish. @DurhamBorn will calm us down I'm sure by laying liquidity over that and telling us it's lower. But it's sure lining up neatly for an oil run up into a BK!

 

 

Curve is clearly backwardated as I thought it would, and it's steepening. I was doing some work on this yesterday, and it seems to be coming to a pivot point around the end of March. This is also when The UK and USA at least will start to be freed up by the vaccines, who said markets were discounting mechanisms?!

This was so good I've read it three times now 

[Democorruptcy]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

@Cattle Prod i see a big risk at Brent  $58 to $60 for a pull back based on my dollar liquidity work.Interesting to see if that happens or not.However after that its a long run up ahead.Id actually be really pleased if the supply falls see oil through $60 and onward.Oil at $80 could be on and it would likely provide us with a big choice to make.Take then huge profits off the table and wait for the BK,it wont be far behind,or hold through it.Im torn at the moment as my road map is clear on gas being the best performing asset after silver in the cycle ahead and im very concerned to try to trade around the rise and end up out of the stocks.

One things for certain,its a bloody nice place to be worrying and doing work on that.If we get gaps filled on the stocks people who arent invested should use that chance to top up.

 

Taking the profits off the table was why I was asking a while back about somewhere to park them, rather than leaving it as raw cash in a trading account during a BK. I've looked at some so called Money Market Funds on HL but haven't found anything that looks close enough to risk free. A lot are tied to bank depositories but that partly defeats the object in a BK.

[Talking Monkey]

3 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Taking the profits off the table was why I was asking a while back about somewhere to park them, rather than leaving it as raw cash in a trading account during a BK. I've looked at some so called Money Market Funds on HL but haven't found anything that looks close enough to risk free. A lot are tied to bank depositories but that partly defeats the object in a BK.

Could that ibtl be a place to park through the BK, we've discussed that as a possibility

[DurhamBorn]

15 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Taking the profits off the table was why I was asking a while back about somewhere to park them, rather than leaving it as raw cash in a trading account during a BK. I've looked at some so called Money Market Funds on HL but haven't found anything that looks close enough to risk free. A lot are tied to bank depositories but that partly defeats the object in a BK.

Its a huge problem especially for bigger portfolios.The answer is gilts and treasuries,but only for the short term.I think we need to turn the threat to what to do if/when oil hits $65 so we are ready between that and $80.I might just trim a lot by 30% or do nothing.Lets get there first.

[Democorruptcy]

10 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Could that ibtl be a place to park through the BK, we've discussed that as a possibility

I'm not sure. If you knew you could buy bonds at par and then cash them in at par that would be OK but can you? At the moment IBTL has 40 holdings. These are presumably tradeable Treasury bonds. What if you invest as demand for them increases and they are priced a lot over par so IBTL is trading higher. Then when you sell, demand has dropped, the bonds are trading less above par so IBTL trades lower? It could work if you buy (low) and sell (high) earlier enough but I think timing matters.

[Democorruptcy]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its a huge problem especially for bigger portfolios.The answer is gilts and treasuries,but only for the short term.I think we need to turn the threat to what to do if/when oil hits $65 so we are ready between that and $80.I might just trim a lot by 30% or do nothing.Lets get there first.

Yes, I'm trying to think ahead and get ready. I suppose just taking profits off the table is one option. Though in a BK not selling the holding as well, misses out on cheaper extra units and their future dividends.

[Hancock]

Why is the consensus on here that there will be a BK? (as in akin to March 2020 or worse)

We'll be freed soon, spring is coming, people have more savings than ever in the western world, and they're desperate to get out and have a good time. Thus the Mcjob losses will be replaced. 

Is it an interest rate hike when inflation hits shortly that will bring down the house of cards?

Quite easy to see where we are now as being as close to rock bottom as possible.