Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

6 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

This guy reckons any day now, the market has lost its momentum as is due to correct, watch 4300 on the s&p

 

A good listen.  I was listening to it so hard yesterday while sorting stones that I missed the red ants.  I'm swelling up nicely this morning!  An Omen?

[Bricormortis]

6 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

This guy reckons any day now, the market has lost its momentum as is due to correct, watch 4300 on the s&p

 

Michael Oliver is usualy worth a listen,  he thinks momentum has now turned on the S and P, different thoughts from DH on the Big Kahuna, reckons more of a bear market with continued Fed intervention step down and rotation iirc, natural gas to $9 and iirc the DXY going to 70 or lower.

[planit]

Up to now the transition advocates have been shielded by the low numbers of green consumers. So, for example, the number of EV's could double and it wouldn't affect the electricity grid or supply metrics. They use this maths in all of their projections.

But they are changing the entire system so their calculations are wrong, at the best wishful thinking and at the worst will be responsible for serious hardship for people.

Here is yet another reality check, I like this paragraph

Quote

According to the paper, a 15-percent reduction in the number of residential gas customers would mean that bills would rise by around $30 per year for the remaining customers. For a 90-percent reduction in nat gas customers, those bill increases would be an extra $1,500 per year.

But I still don't think they have added in EV use or hydrogen production, these people will also be competing for the electricuty and pushing up prices. I need to find a paper that addresses all the demands together.

 

[DurhamBorn]

26 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Michael Oliver is usualy worth a listen,  he thinks momentum has now turned on the S and P, different thoughts from DH on the Big Kahuna, reckons more of a bear market with continued Fed intervention step down and rotation iirc, natural gas to $9 and iirc the DXY going to 70 or lower.

Thats roughly my mid term target for gas and the dollar so im going to have a listen to the guy.Rotation is certain,yet most are missing that point.The big risk for us in the basement is political risk.Like posted above governments hungry for revenue and jobs might decide to take all the oilies profits.Of course that would just mean consumers and industry end up paying.

CBs and government would like all free cash invested rather than paying dividends,but with them creating structural problems companies would rather buy back shares and divi's.BP prime example.Instead of investing in growth,maybe better tech for petrol cars,better carbon capture,maybe even offsetting new oil with planting trees due to government meddling and narrative they invest in something that only rewards their own shareholders.Buybacks.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Just had my quote for when my fix expires: £55pcm to £82pcm!  I like them as I do not need a smart meter.  Nice to hear JHB challenge an "expert" today who was trying to argue how they help lower costs for the hard up - no they don't, they're for the benefit of the suppliers/HMG as they'll increase costs as they enable suppliers to charge differential pricing (times, etc)! 

PS:  I meant to say, assuming this is the new standard, then £984 pa with NG. yielding 5.30% means a tax exempt holding of £18,566!  A bit of a bullish pennant chart pattern forming on the weekly and apparent tramlines (re. John Burford) on the daily or is that (using candles) a bearish descending chart pattern on the weekly?  Effing TA!  But what's interesting (and I'm seeing it a lot) is how many UK stocks are up against resistance levels so maybe such confusion is to be expected.  Take yer bets, as usual!

Mines gone from £90 to £105 on a two year fix,same here i used them because no smart meter.The Octopus fixed have no early exit charges so if we get a dip can re-fix.My gas is very low as in winter set at 17.5 but electric is the main one.Then again i do have four freezers  ,

[DurhamBorn]

If any of you live near one of these 

https://www.companyshopgroup.co.uk/

Its well worth joining if you can.If you cant anyone you know who can join can then join you,every member is allowed to nominate one other person for a card.

The prices are amazing,though you never know what will be in.This week i got Seriously Cheese 350g blocks for 50p each,cut in half and all froze.Extra large Sainsbury Chickens £2.44,less than half price Aldi 1kg chicken fillets usually £4.89 for £2 etc.I even got loads of grated Mozzorella cheese at 50p a bag,i dont usually as it is bulked with potato starch but rel bargain for my pizzas.

Best bargain though,,,,2.5k catering tins of Branston Beans 20p  

Perfect for my camping trips .

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Bricormortis said:

Michael Oliver is usualy worth a listen,  he thinks momentum has now turned on the S and P, different thoughts from DH on the Big Kahuna, reckons more of a bear market with continued Fed intervention step down and rotation iirc, natural gas to $9 and iirc the DXY going to 70 or lower.

I don't see it on the S&P, yet.  My momentum indicator although overbought is still up as is MACD, although that is starting to increase at a slower rate.  That applies to pretty much all time periods.  Much more aggressive than the 2016 to 2018 run so could well end more violently than that one.  Nat Gas annoying as I traded earlier at a loss and it's now done well post my exit!  DXY may change but atm on the monthly its just bounced off very long term support for the nth time and momentum and MACD are on the up.  It has however broken its very long term upward channel so any bounce could fail at that line (i.e. fail at what was once support but is now resistance).

[Democorruptcy]

19 hours ago, Starsend said:

Looking at some of my bigger oil holdings this morning and their current yields (investing.com)

BP 4.84% (Does this include the recent increase?)

Shell 3.8%

Total 6.98%

Chevron 5.22%

Gazprom 4.45%

Repsol 6.16%

Exxon 5.98%

Pretty happy with the yields on all of those except bloody Shell. They've had the oil price up long enough now and the dividend is still way below what it was (it was 5%+ when the share price was £22). Thinking of selling and distributing the proceeds between some of the higher yielders.

Don't forget withholding tax?

[Starsend]

12 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

BOE predicted 2.5% inflation as the peak,  i had 3.8% as the target in the autumn from two years ago and its looking very good for that now.

How can the BOE be so wrong?.Surely they are simply lieing?,because what they are really doing is funding the governments structural deficit,mostly welfare spending and government workers pensions rather than make the government deal with it.All main CBs are working together here so no-one suffers a big currency hit by them all printing.One will stop QE though and then it gets interesting.

I think we might hit 4.3-4.6% (14% in basics so bottom 30% will be seeing around 9%/12% inflation) then a slow down where they think 2% is back in line,but then a new turn upwards that lasts the cycle.

 

 

Yes, they are lying, plain and simple.

I read a detailed analysis once of Bank of England inflation predictions. Their predictions of where inflation would be a year or two out were wrong something like 98% of the time - curiously they were always under. Is it really likely they would be wrong that much of the time? If they are that incompetent then surely we should get rid of them. Nope, they're doing exactly what they're supposed to be doing to us - misleading us.

The BoE is not there to keep inflation under 2% or whatever their current remit is. They are there to manage expectations, to trick people into believing that inflation is lower than it is - and if it isn't right now then don't worry it soon will be. They're confidence tricksters working hand and hand with the Government to steal from the masses. Clear as day once you see how the game is played.

5 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Don't forget withholding tax?

Shouldn't be any taxes in a SIPP or a ISA?

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Yes, they are lying, plain and simple.

I read a detailed analysis once of Bank of England inflation predictions. Their predictions of where inflation would be a year or two out were wrong something like 98% of the time - curiously they were always under. Is it really likely they would be wrong that much of the time? If they are that incompetent then surely we should get rid of them. Nope, they're doing exactly what they're supposed to be doing to us - misleading us.

The BoE is not there to keep inflation under 2% or whatever their current remit is. They are there to manage expectations, to trick people into believing that inflation is lower than it is - and if it isn't right now then don't worry it soon will be. They're confidence tricksters working hand and hand with the Government to steal from the masses. Clear as day once you see how the game is played.

Shouldn't be any taxes in a SIPP or a ISA?

https://topforeignstocks.com/2021/01/14/dividend-withholding-tax-rates-by-country-for-2021/

[Heart's Ease]

 

[Starsend]

46 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://topforeignstocks.com/2021/01/14/dividend-withholding-tax-rates-by-country-for-2021/

Still unclear as to whether they apply to SIPPs and ISA. I'm going to have a good luck at the end of the year at all the dividends I've actually received and see if I can figure out what taxes have been witheld.

Further thoughts. The article only applies to US citizens receiving dividends from Australia, Singapore and India. 30%, 0% and 20% even held in a retirement account. But do the same rules apply to the UK?

One thing is for sure though, Australia can stick it, 30% way too high.

[Lightscribe]

If the interest rates have to stay at zero or thereabout forever (like we’re told) then why have MBNA sent me this letter about changes to the term and conditions on October 15th?

They seem awfully keen to move the goalposts to link to the base rate.
 

[arrow]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

Still unclear as to whether they apply to SIPPs and ISA. I'm going to have a good luck at the end of the year at all the dividends I've actually received and see if I can figure out what taxes have been witheld.

Further thoughts. The article only applies to US citizens receiving dividends from Australia, Singapore and India. 30%, 0% and 20% even held in a retirement account. But do the same rules apply to the UK?

One thing is for sure though, Australia can stick it, 30% way too high.

The UK has a double taxation treaty with Australia, so I believe dividend tax is at 15% from Australian companies. The Uk also has a double taxation treaty with the USA, so in a SIPP dividend tax is usually zero, outside SIPPs it's 15%. These are for US corporations. Partnerships the tax can be as high as 45%.

[arrow]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

Still unclear as to whether they apply to SIPPs and ISA. I'm going to have a good luck at the end of the year at all the dividends I've actually received and see if I can figure out what taxes have been witheld.

Further thoughts. The article only applies to US citizens receiving dividends from Australia, Singapore and India. 30%, 0% and 20% even held in a retirement account. But do the same rules apply to the UK?

One thing is for sure though, Australia can stick it, 30% way too high.

Double taxation with India. So for a UK resident, India I believe is 10% tax on dividends and Singapore doesn't tax dividends for foreign residents.

 

I use PWC for tax rates. But it's not completely accurate, as it doesn't mention sipps for US dividend income. Click on the foreign country then scroll down to the UK to find out how much you'll be taxed. Don't forget to read the notes at the bottom of the page that tell you if multiple tax rates apply, when each will apply.

 

https://taxsummaries.pwc.com/quick-charts/withholding-tax-wht-rates

 

[Barnsey]

2 hours ago, Starsend said:

Yes, they are lying, plain and simple.

I read a detailed analysis once of Bank of England inflation predictions. Their predictions of where inflation would be a year or two out were wrong something like 98% of the time - curiously they were always under. Is it really likely they would be wrong that much of the time? If they are that incompetent then surely we should get rid of them. Nope, they're doing exactly what they're supposed to be doing to us - misleading us.

The BoE is not there to keep inflation under 2% or whatever their current remit is. They are there to manage expectations, to trick people into believing that inflation is lower than it is - and if it isn't right now then don't worry it soon will be. They're confidence tricksters working hand and hand with the Government to steal from the masses. Clear as day once you see how the game is played.

Shouldn't be any taxes in a SIPP or a ISA?

Exactly, only those like us who've followed the path meticulously so far know the score really. Seriously getting fed up of all the "incompetent BoE" rhetoric, they know exactly what they're doing.

The only way to get sustainable growth is to run the economy seriously hot, employment in particular, to create the demand for goods and services needed.

Surprised?

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Starsend said:

Shouldn't be any taxes in a SIPP or a ISA?

My understanding (not advice):

. Foreign WHT depends on the rules for the country in which the paying company is domiciled.

. In most (all?) cases WHT is applied regardless of the type of account you have in the UK.

. Additionally, the US (ano?) see a UK SIPP like their own country's IRA so will charge zero WHT.

. Most brokers will apply for reduced WHT for US (ano?) stocks for you (s.t. WBEN completion)).

. You can try and claim WHT back from other countries' tax authorities which permit this but good luck!

. You can (s.t. conditions) claim some relief for WHT paid with HRMC (not with tax free accounts though).

Just my understanding.  That is, there are no UK taxes on divs in SIPPs and ISAs but for WHTs, depends.

 

[Starsend]

11 minutes ago, arrow said:

The UK has a double taxation treaty with Australia, so I believe dividend tax is at 15% from Australian companies. The Uk also has a double taxation treaty with the USA, so in a SIPP dividend tax is usually zero, outside SIPPs it's 15%. These are for US corporations. Partnerships the tax can be as high as 45%.

I've just been doing some reading and it's all clear as mud.

US

• Inside a SIPP 0% as most brokers usually claim it back.
• Inside a ISA 15%.
• Outside a SIPP/ISA 15%

Important to check that your broker handles the W8-BEN form and you've filled it out or I think you will pay 30% on everything. All the main brokers do.

 

Canada

The rate is 25% unless you fill out a NR301 form. You'll then get 15%. AJ Bell do the NR301, not sure who else does. Not sure if this gets you 0% in a SIPP. Bit moot anyway for me as I don't think HL do the NR301.

 

Russia

15% and that's that as far as I can see.

 

In general it appears that you have the list of withholding rates as linked to above by DB and then some individual double taxation agreements between countries that alter those rates. From the little reading I've seen it is possible to claim back withholding tax but none of the brokers bother with the exception of for US shares.

The above is just what I've pieced together from a brief bit of reading so don't take as gospel.

In general I think I'll stick to UK/US and Russian shares. I do hold Canadian shares but don't think I'd buy too many more for their dividends as 25% is a big whack.

 

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Starsend said:

Still unclear as to whether they apply to SIPPs and ISA. I'm going to have a good luck at the end of the year at all the dividends I've actually received and see if I can figure out what taxes have been witheld.

Further thoughts. The article only applies to US citizens receiving dividends from Australia, Singapore and India. 30%, 0% and 20% even held in a retirement account. But do the same rules apply to the UK?

One thing is for sure though, Australia can stick it, 30% way too high.

US divs are free of tax for UK SIPPs but not ISAs so hold US in SIPP,most of the rest tax at source,so you lose it.All things being equal if Orange for instance paid 16% instead of 26% the shares would be 10% higher when you bought them.It is annoying though.Brasil is zero though and Spain etc isnt too bad at 19% given they way they tax companies probably works out with the divi tax.

[Starsend]

5 minutes ago, Harley said:

My understanding (not advice):

. Foreign WHT depends on the rules for the country in which the paying company is domiciled.

. In most (all?) cases WHT is applied regardless of the type of account you have in the UK.

. Additionally, the US (ano?) see a UK SIPP like their own country's IRA so will charge zero WHT.

. Most brokers will apply for reduced WHT for US (ano?) stocks for you (s.t. WBEN completion)).

. You can try and claim WHT back from other countries' tax authorities which permit this but good luck!

. You can (s.t. conditions) claim some relief for WHT paid with HRMC (not with tax free accounts though).

Just my understanding.  That is, there are no UK taxes on divs in SIPPs and ISAs but for WHTs, depends.

 

Matches what I've just read. In theory brokers could claim WHT back from many other countries but only really do for the US and a few for Canada as well.

Makes it very hard to know what you'll actually pay for many other countries given the number of double taxation agreements. I'm just going to keep it simple I think, US, UK, Russia and some Canadians (mostly non or small dividend paying oil juniors/mid tiers).

[DurhamBorn]

6 minutes ago, Starsend said:

I've just been doing some reading and it's all clear as mud.

US

• Inside a SIPP 0% as most brokers usually claim it back.
• Inside a ISA 15%.
• Outside a SIPP/ISA 15%

Important to check that your broker handles the W8-BEN form and you've filled it out or I think you will pay 30% on everything. All the main brokers do.

 

Canada

The rate is 25% unless you fill out a NR301 form. You'll then get 15%. AJ Bell do the NR301, not sure who else does. Not sure if this gets you 0% in a SIPP. Bit moot anyway for me as I don't think HL do the NR301.

 

Russia

15% and that's that as far as I can see.

 

In general it appears that you have the list of withholding rates as linked to above by DB and then some individual double taxation agreements between countries that alter those rates. From the little reading I've seen it is possible to claim back withholding tax but none of the brokers bother with the exception of for US shares.

The above is just what I've pieced together from a brief bit of reading so don't take as gospel.

In general I think I'll stick to UK/US and Russian shares. I do hold Canadian shares but don't think I'd buy too many more for their dividends as 25% is a big whack.

 

 

 

Hargreaves claim it on Canadian ,you just fill in the W8 form i think.Iv had lots of Canadian divs and looks like 15% tax.

Im trying to work out when Brasil stocks py their divs etc,and it doesnt make much sense.They seem to add some to the divi every month then pay when they feel like it.Does anyone understand it?,For Telefonica Brasil for instance?

Where possible we will claim reduced withholding tax payments on US and Canadian stocks for investors who have provided us with a valid W-8BEN form. However, we will not reclaim tax credits on dividends or income from any other foreign countries.

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, Starsend said:

Matches what I've just read. In theory brokers could claim WHT back from many other countries but only really do for the US and a few for Canada as well.

Makes it very hard to know what you'll actually pay for many other countries given the number of double taxation agreements. I'm just going to keep it simple I think, US, UK, Russia and some Canadians (mostly non or small dividend paying oil juniors/mid tiers).

Iv had it out many times with HL on this sort of thing and others and with family accounts its six figures,but they arent interested.They make more from someone with £80k in funds than from my family.I would guess investment trusts would claim the tax back,it would be interesting to know.I might email Henderson and try to find out.

[Harley]

1 minute ago, Starsend said:

My understanding (not advice).

I've just been doing some reading and it's all clear as mud.

US

• Inside a SIPP 0% as most brokers usually claim it back.

The SIPP is seen as like an IRA by the IRS so, subject to completing a WBEN, no tax.

• Inside a ISA 15%.

The WBEN gives you this reduced rate at the time the div is paid

• Outside a SIPP/ISA 15%

If a WBEN is completed as and when required.

Important to check that your broker handles the W8-BEN form and you've filled it out or I think you will pay 30% on everything. All the main brokers do.

 

Canada

The rate is 25% unless you fill out a NR301 form. You'll then get 15%. AJ Bell do the NR301, not sure who else does. Not sure if this gets you 0% in a SIPP. Bit moot anyway for me as I don't think HL do the NR301.

Thank,s I've never been sure.

Russia

15% and that's that as far as I can see.

Even better in several Asian countries!  I simply gross up dividends by the WHT for each country so I have a level playing field when comparing international stocks.  That is, I assume (bar the US), that the WHT is an unrecoverable expense.

In general it appears that you have the list of withholding rates as linked to above by DB and then some individual double taxation agreements between countries that alter those rates.

You can read the treaties on the HRMC website but the issue I have is they seem to talk about dividends, etc between companies in most cases so does that apply to us as well?

From the little reading I've seen it is possible to claim back withholding tax but none of the brokers bother with the exception of for US shares.

Yes, I read up on the French reclaim process and gave up!

The above is just what I've pieced together from a brief bit of reading so don't take as gospel.

Indeed, neither mine!

In general I think I'll stick to UK/US and Russian shares. I do hold Canadian shares but don't think I'd buy too many more for their dividends as 25% is a big whack.

Just to mention the possibility (subject to personal circumstances) you may be able to claim relief for WHT from the HRMC via your tax return (maybe a form too).

 

[Starsend]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Hargreaves claim it on Canadian ,you just fill in the W8 form i think.Iv had lots of Canadian divs and looks like 15% tax.

Im trying to work out when Brasil stocks py their divs etc,and it doesnt make much sense.They seem to add some to the divi every month then pay when they feel like it.Does anyone understand it?,For Telefonica Brasil for instance?

Where possible we will claim reduced withholding tax payments on US and Canadian stocks for investors who have provided us with a valid W-8BEN form. However, we will not reclaim tax credits on dividends or income from any other foreign countries.

Stuff I read said you needed a NR301 form for Canada which just goes to show how much info there is out there that is misleading.

Handy to know only 15% on Canadian stocks and it's covered by a W-8BEN form (for HL anyway).

[Harley]

5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im trying to work out when Brasil stocks py their divs etc,and it doesnt make much sense.They seem to add some to the divi every month then pay when they feel like it.Does anyone understand it?,For Telefonica Brasil for instance?

I wonder if that is related to exchange controls.  Some countries have to get approval, etc from the Central Banks, etc for overseas payments.  Maybe "store and forward" is a more efficient, etc approach.