Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

9 hours ago, arrow said:

yes, bought more gdxj on friday. as usual probably bought far too early

Yep, I've been buying individual miners and am down a fair bit.  Not meant to happen!

[wherebee]

So just did my annual tax for the year here in Australia (july_June).

Made 35k profit on buys/sells/dividends after all costs.  That's not chickenfeed at all.  And still have all the ongoing positions in oilies and miners for the future.

A debt of gratitude is owed to @DurhamBorn and all those who have contributed here.

[Hancock]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Most people already own so arent affected,sad,but true.That will be coming though as rates are forced up.BOE will be watching failed bond auctions.

Must be getting closer, about a decade ago they used to claim about 65% owned , but it turned out that number included adults still living with their parents.

If for the sake of argument it was correct then, the number has to be considerably lower now.

 

[Castlevania]

14 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

 

He’s walking around my old hood

[Castlevania]

9 hours ago, Loki said:

The mortgage thing was towards the end of the decade, when it could be $300+

 

As for the recent price action who knows.  The Yanks always say "Buying opportunity" 

I say "20% VAT on silver bullion now, no thanks".  I think I now own all the silver I ever will

The premiums at the moment are too high. My bullion dealer wants a 30% premium over spot for 100 oz bars. That’s to be held in a vault so no VAT. 30% is insane.

[Heart's Ease]

 

Read this piece by Nate Fisher last night and see there's a little more chat in the thread with DH making a 'few corrections'.

[Queasing]

5 hours ago, Hancock said:

Must be getting closer, about a decade ago they used to claim about 65% owned , but it turned out that number included adults still living with their parents.

If for the sake of argument it was correct then, the number has to be considerably lower now.

 

62% in 2017

Figure 1 shows the increase in the percentage of households in privately rented accommodation over the past decade from 13% in financial year ending (FYE) 2007 to 20% in FYE 2017. This contrasts with the percentage of owner occupiers, which has seen a decline over the same period. For the period FYE 2017, the most recent data available, private renters accounted for 20% of all households, compared with 62% for owner occupiers and 17% for social housing occupants.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/articles/ukprivaterentedsector/2018

 

Declining owner occupier a disaster when 'generation rent' enter retirement with crap pensions and no owned outright residence. I'm sure those in power / housebuilders have a plan to fix this, compulsory Help to buy?

[Castlevania]

14 minutes ago, PrincessDrac said:

Me too.

Ref:Hargreaves Lansdown.

Are there any long term Fresnillo holders on here with experience of the dividend payout structure.

I understand the Mexican authorities withhold 10℅ for local tax's.

Do Hargreaves Lansdown claim this back on your behalf.

If not. Can you claim it back.

If not. Can you offset this tax paid against tax owed to her Majesty.

So in essence pay less tax to the HMRC due to the Mexican witholding payment not being claimed back.

They have upped their interim to 0.099 cents. Great results and financials. Pity its not reflected in the SP.

Thanks.

They had a tax rebate with the Mexican government for years, so all dividends were exempt from withholding taxes. I think that’s now been used up so dividends will be liable for withholding tax. If held in a taxable account you can offset the withholding tax against U.K. dividend income tax assuming there’s a double taxation treaty between the U.K. and Mexico. If held in a tax wrapper (ISA or SIPP) then there’s nothing you can do.

[planit]

We have hit peak green

There have been loads of articles over the last 2 weeks where governments, the MSM, investors etc have realised the numbers don't add up.

There is no affect on a much bigger system when something very small doubles or triples. But now they are trying to come up with plans where most of our usage will change over the next 8 years (average change of 12.5% per year but would be accelerating), even coming up with a 3 year plan needs to cover  a decent portion of overall use.

This should push attention back to the shortfall and existing systems and how they will cope, like the shortfall in the German electricity supply yesterday (will they have blackouts when they shut their nuclear plants in 2022?). 

When this happens there could be re-ratings in loads of places as old and new compete for resources (DB feedback effects in action).

It's difficult to time this but I doubt things will stay as they are for the rest of 2021.

 

After the above when a recession kicks in there will be no one willing to keep saying we should push 100's of billions to fantasy green projects. 

 

[DurhamBorn]

6 hours ago, Hancock said:

Must be getting closer, about a decade ago they used to claim about 65% owned , but it turned out that number included adults still living with their parents.

If for the sake of argument it was correct then, the number has to be considerably lower now.

 

Lots of cross market affects go on as well.Lots of people who dont own have parents who do who they think they will inherit from so they dont want houses down.Most of the young i know are in free housing from welfare and dont care,or buy new builds with HTB and only look at the monthly payment.Iv never met one that understands rates can go up.

The UK housing market is the only real tool the government has for keeping people working and paying tax.They want houses to be just in reach,but expensive enough to mean most have to work for 30 years from buying just to pay it off.

I think we are getting to the point where a lot of people inherit from boomers,and will already own themselves and will sell to retire early.More supply and more taxpayers leaving work.

Most of the problems are from immigration,welfare and BTL.It needs a structural deficit and the BOE to stop printing,we have the first,the 2nd wont be long.

[Barnsey]

49 minutes ago, Queasing said:

62% in 2017

Figure 1 shows the increase in the percentage of households in privately rented accommodation over the past decade from 13% in financial year ending (FYE) 2007 to 20% in FYE 2017. This contrasts with the percentage of owner occupiers, which has seen a decline over the same period. For the period FYE 2017, the most recent data available, private renters accounted for 20% of all households, compared with 62% for owner occupiers and 17% for social housing occupants.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/articles/ukprivaterentedsector/2018

 

Declining owner occupier a disaster when 'generation rent' enter retirement with crap pensions and no owned outright residence. I'm sure those in power / housebuilders have a plan to fix this, compulsory Help to buy?

Inheritance?

[Queasing]

3 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Inheritance?

For some

[DurhamBorn]

15 minutes ago, planit said:

We have hit peak green

There have been loads of articles over the last 2 weeks where governments, the MSM, investors etc have realised the numbers don't add up.

There is no affect on a much bigger system when something very small doubles or triples. But now they are trying to come up with plans where most of our usage will change over the next 8 years (average change of 12.5% per year but would be accelerating), even coming up with a 3 year plan needs to cover  a decent portion of overall use.

This should push attention back to the shortfall and existing systems and how they will cope, like the shortfall in the German electricity supply yesterday (will they have blackouts when they shut their nuclear plants in 2022?). 

When this happens there could be re-ratings in loads of places as old and new compete for resources (DB feedback effects in action).

It's difficult to time this but I doubt things will stay as they are for the rest of 2021.

 

After the above when a recession kicks in there will be no one willing to keep saying we should push 100's of billions to fantasy green projects. 

 

Most windfarms are loss making without subs and when they run out they will simply shut,or go bust and be taken over by big oil with the cash.Inflation running hard and the work im doing now says costs wont come down for wind as government thinks.Massive energy cost increases will be political suicide as you say and there is no chance it happens as stated.I think the petrol car ban will be pushe back as well,or they will allow hybrids for much much longer to get around the ban.Macro is superb for our areas.Im going to send the head of NEST a thankyou card for selling me NMW workers BP shares at £2.

[DurhamBorn]

10 minutes ago, Queasing said:

For some

Yes of course,some,but still a large amount of wealth about to be passed on.The biggest gainers from HPI werent the boomers,its their kids who bought in their early 20s.They are 46 to 55 now roughly.

I should add this is part of the reason we are entering a distribution cycle,at least in the west.That and inflation.

[Long-game]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Silver is likely going to $100,probably $200 and maybe $300 an oz at some point in this cycle.My son paid an average of £11.80 in sterling i think.He and his partner got a ten year fix mortgage and are overpaying it by around £7k a year + £2.5k capital repayment,its £92k now house £140k,he is 22.The idea is he will sell the silver and re-pay the mortgage when they meet.He should be mortgage free by 28 years old with silver at this price on a nice semi.I gave him no money and he works in a warehouse for a supermarket.

I sold some goldies after they doubled,trebled and quadrupled and bought other areas (some of them have trebled since as well like potash).Im retired and 49 and im not aiming now for big capital growth.My aims are a steady income that at least keeps up with inflation,and hopefully capital as well.I still own several silver miners and iv being adding recently to Yamana and smaller amounts in Harmony.

Silver itself im not interested really,it will get to where its going in its own time.If i didnt have mine id gladly buy it here.

DYOR etc

DB care to recommend any potash shares that might be worth a look at ? Thanks

[DurhamBorn]

40 minutes ago, Long-game said:

DB care to recommend any potash shares that might be worth a look at ? Thanks

Its a bit late on them to be honest K+S probably has some value left DYOR etc for anyone who wants exposure to the sector and doesnt have any,iv been selling down most of my other ones.The best way to play the sector is to buy Mosaic whenever the sector or market crashes,and for quality Nutrien.

I got a bit lucky during the sell off because i made Mosaic my 2nd biggest holding in my portfolio and i got nearly all buys at the bottom because it fell through my ladders that quick i missed most of them out.

[Long-game]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its a bit late on them to be honest K+S probably has some value left DYOR etc for anyone who wants exposure to the sector and doesnt have any,iv been selling down most of my other ones.The best way to play the sector is to buy Mosaic whenever the sector or market crashes,and for quality Nutrien.

I got a bit lucky during the sell off because i made Mosaic my 2nd biggest holding in my portfolio and i got nearly all buys at the bottom because it fell through my ladders that quick i missed most of them out.

Thanks I will keep a lookout for some drops, been upping my pm collection once again after getting a wee cash windfall.

[King Penda]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes of course,some,but still a large amount of wealth about to be passed on.The biggest gainers from HPI werent the boomers,its their kids who bought in their early 20s.They are 46 to 55 now roughly.

I should add this is part of the reason we are entering a distribution cycle,at least in the west.That and inflation.

The number geting one will decrease over time I’m guessing 

[Harley]

21 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

HL is very very cheap for larger ISAs and SIPPs,they also have no withdraw fees on the SIPP when in drawdown.

I recently noticed Interactive Investors no longer charge you extra for going into drawdown.

[goldbug9999]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Most of the problems are from immigration,welfare and BTL.It needs a structural deficit and the BOE to stop printing,we have the first,the 2nd wont be long.

... which is never going to happen right up until we have sovereign currency collapse.

[Noallegiance]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its a bit late on them to be honest K+S probably has some value left DYOR etc for anyone who wants exposure to the sector and doesnt have any,iv been selling down most of my other ones.The best way to play the sector is to buy Mosaic whenever the sector or market crashes,and for quality Nutrien.

I got a bit lucky during the sell off because i made Mosaic my 2nd biggest holding in my portfolio and i got nearly all buys at the bottom because it fell through my ladders that quick i missed most of them out.

Don't fancy Intrepid any more?

[DurhamBorn]

42 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

... which is never going to happen right up until we have sovereign currency collapse.

Im not sure on that.I think we might get another £100billion then a taper down.Currency collapse will likely be at the end of the cycle and not from printing,but from the fact they wont be able to print when they need to.The end of the cycle haunts my thoughts because once they cant print everything goes down to zero or close to zero.

Governments have a cycle to run their liabilities below inflation and they need to if they are to have any hope of avoiding currency collapse late in the decade.

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Don't fancy Intrepid any more?

I like them all,but took a lot of profit on them ,im positioning more inflation defensive now as a BK is still a threat.Out of all the sectors potash landed very lucky for me.I actually expected them to run after oilies not before and not to the extent that they did so early.

[ThoughtCriminal]

When ideology runs into reality.............

[goldbug9999]

21 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im not sure on that.I think we might get another £100billion then a taper down.Currency collapse will likely be at the end of the cycle and not from printing,but from the fact they wont be able to print when they need to.

Whats going to stop them ? not inflation thats for sure - it can be redefined / ignored / talked away with suitable PR. We will be softened up to expect inflation as the new normal redefined using some fancy words that sound good like "value expansion" just like money printing was redefined as this nice friendly thing called QE.

The new paradigm is not to raise rates to curb inflation but to print even more and give it to people so they can afford the higher prices. There is no cycle any more, there no going back, no reversion to mean, no BK etc (at least nominally).