Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[invalid]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

US divs are free of tax for UK SIPPs but not ISAs so hold US in SIPP,most of the rest tax at source,so you lose it.All things being equal if Orange for instance paid 16% instead of 26% the shares would be 10% higher when you bought them.It is annoying though.Brasil is zero though and Spain etc isnt too bad at 19% given they way they tax companies probably works out with the divi tax.

 

I can see this changing in the UK.

Whenever the little guy gets a break and manages to make a few quid the government of the day start to look for ways to take a slice. With the recent increases in average joe investors buying shares on an app on their phone I can see the goal posts being moved even for ISA and SIPPs and some sort of new tax coming in.

Probably under the 'save the NHS' banner to get public approval.....

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Sums it up with his usual bombastic style...

 

Yep.  My new side strategy is to buy enough stocks of each relevant sector for the divs to cover my living costs.  Electric, oil, water, food, etc.  Shame my council is not listed, although that'll need to be a lot of divs!

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Nice fat divi from VOD today, tempted to back the van up at this yield.

5.5% after withholding tax on Orange SA at the moment and a good chance that divi will start to rise in a year or two.Add Orange to VOD 6% average across the two and you pretty much get the biggest telcos in all the half decent African countries and right around the Med rim.French government still own about a quarter though so a risk of political meddling.

Telefonica Germany also has maybe the cleanest balance sheet in the sector and a nice fat divi.There is a chance it could expand into Czech/Poland etc going forward through mergers etc.

I like VOD for how its positioned,but that debt is still a bit too high and really needs to come down a third.

I think Telcos could start share buybacks in a year or two,once they get long term price mechanisms from regulators.

 

[DoINeedOne]

20 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

This guy reckons any day now, the market has lost its momentum as is due to correct, watch 4300 on the s&p

 

This popped up on Twitter today, talking about todays price action

https://kingworldnews.com/michael-oliver-8-6-2021/

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Starsend said:

The 1.1% is the charge levied by the fund themselves? Least I think that's what "Investment charges" means.

HL charge .45%.

The total charges (which include dealing costs) are 2.23% per year averaged out over a five year period. This includes selling in year 5. The average yearly fee will drop a little the longer you hold.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/h/henderson-far-east-income-ltd-ord-npv/costs

 

Yes your correct the 1.1% fee is the fund manager fee, I have lazily gotten into habit of thinking about it as 'my platform charge' because I use HL for my ISA and interactive investor for my sipp - And the same fund when available on both, sometimes has a different fee on either platform, because HL frequently negotiates lower fund fees.                                                                                                                                      The cost page you highlight is useful but as Durhamborn says not always relevant if a trust. I think other costs might be overstated also, and are listed more for regulatory reasons, not to be ignored, but not 100% accurate... Crikey, these charges are more complicated than the divi WHT discussion!!

[Presuming Ed]

17 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

They dont charge that as its an investment trust not a unit trust and im already way over the maximum for charges so adding anything to my accounts results in no extra charge at all apart from the dealing fee.I think my charges are something like 0.04% platform fees.

In an ISA that 0.45% maxes out at £10k as the £45 max fee kicks in,so £20k is 0.225%,£40k 0.1125%

etc etc

My understanding is that investment trust charges come out of the trusts' assets/income, not directly from shareholders.  The 'Ongoing Charge' figure quoted on HL for trusts is a way of keeping an eye on how much the managers are paying themselves in 'annual management' & other opaque fees. Obviously some of them are making out like absolute bandits & eye-watering charges will inevitably eat into overall investment returns. 

[Starsend]

19 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

They dont charge that as its an investment trust not a unit trust and im already way over the maximum for charges so adding anything to my accounts results in no extra charge at all apart from the dealing fee.I think my charges are something like 0.04% platform fees.

In an ISA that 0.45% maxes out at £10k as the £45 max fee kicks in,so £20k is 0.225%,£40k 0.1125%

etc etc

Ah I see. So although the illustration I showed earlier includes a .45% fee from HL you'll only pay it in effect if you have less than about £45k in your SIPP (substantially less in an ISA).

That's good to know, makes buying some more HFEL more palatable.

[arrow]

On 06/08/2021 at 14:31, Harley said:

I understand you cannot invest directly in the Indian stock exchange unless you are an Indian national?

Yes, rules are a bit strange. 

 

[DurhamBorn]

11 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Ah I see. So although the illustration I showed earlier includes a .45% fee from HL you'll only pay it in effect if you have less than about £45k in your SIPP (substantially less in an ISA).

That's good to know, makes buying some more HFEL more palatable.

SIPP has maximum £200 charge on shares trusts and ETFs so once over £45k in SIPP it starts to drop as a percentage,so say £100k would be 0.2%,£200k 0.1% etc yes,

ISA has max £45 fee so once over £10k is gets less as a percentage.

HL is very very cheap for larger ISAs and SIPPs,they also have no withdraw fees on the SIPP when in drawdown.

They make most of their money from fees on holding funds,most people i suspect will hold a few odd shares but mostly funds.

 

 

[arrow]

22 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

So at this rate i will be buying miners again

yes, bought more gdxj on friday. as usual probably bought far too early

[Starsend]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

SIPP has maximum £200 charge on shares trusts and ETFs so once over £45k in SIPP it starts to drop as a percentage,so say £100k would be 0.2%,£200k 0.1% etc yes,

ISA has max £45 fee so once over £10k is gets less as a percentage.

HL is very very cheap for larger ISAs and SIPPs,they also have no withdraw fees on the SIPP when in drawdown.

They make most of their money from fees on holding funds,most people i suspect will hold a few odd shares but mostly funds.

 

 

Thanks DB, good to understand what they're charging you.

You sure about investment trusts though? This is from their site. Maybe it's changed?

[M S E Refugee]

 

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, Starsend said:

Thanks DB, good to understand what they're charging you.

You sure about investment trusts though? This is from their site. Maybe it's changed?

Yes investment trusts are the same as shares so included in the 0.45% up to £200 max fee as it says above,anything over £45k in the SIPP starts to lower the average.For bigger SIPPs say £250k+ the fee is tiny.If mine was with an IFA id be looking at between £6 and £8k a year in fees.HL its £200 plus dealing charges.My living expenses are around £14k a year so almost half what i need to live on would be going on fees.Some IFAs are even more expensive and you can be looking at 2% fees including the IFA their platform fee and the fund fees.Its one reason i think most pensions might be in trouble the next decade.Last decades they would get letters saying up 6%,up 5%,up 7% after fees every year and most would be happy and not even consider the fees.As soon as they get letters says down 3%,down 2%,down 4% the fees will be in focus.A 2% annual loss with a 2% fee and a 4% drawdown amount means an empty pension within 10 years without accounting for inflation.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Love Lyns way of cutting through the bullshit 

[JREWING]

Hey DB.

What's going on with Silver. I remember six months ago you were big on the shinny stuff. You're lad had bought loads and was going to pay his mortgage off if it went up into the 30's.

You lost confidence in metals and miners now. Not seen you mention either recently. Just telcos.

What's you're take on the recent slap downs. $24. Will it go lower.

AG and AU struggling. Seems the FED and the LMBA\Comex have it in their sights to keep a lid on prices.

The sector is unloved.

[Loki]

1 hour ago, JREWING said:

Hey DB.

What's going on with Silver. I remember six months ago you were big on the shinny stuff. You're lad had bought loads and was going to pay his mortgage off if it went up into the 30's.

You lost confidence in metals and miners now. Not seen you mention either recently. Just telcos.

What's you're take on the recent slap downs. $24. Will it go lower.

AG and AU struggling. Seems the FED and the LMBA\Comex have it in their sights to keep a lid on prices.

The sector is unloved.

The mortgage thing was towards the end of the decade, when it could be $300+

 

As for the recent price action who knows.  The Yanks always say "Buying opportunity" 

I say "20% VAT on silver bullion now, no thanks".  I think I now own all the silver I ever will

[ThoughtCriminal]

38 minutes ago, Loki said:

The mortgage thing was towards the end of the decade, when it could be $300+

 

As for the recent price action who knows.  The Yanks always say "Buying opportunity" 

I say "20% VAT on silver bullion now, no thanks".  I think I now own all the silver I ever will

Thats what puts me off. 

 

It might go up x10 but that VAT is a piss take lol

[Loki]

Just now, ThoughtCriminal said:

Thats what puts me off. 

 

It might go up x10 but that VAT is a piss take lol

Yeah, when gold is VAT free it just doesn't make sense.  And I agree with durhamborn on trying to avoid VAT. 

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, JREWING said:

Hey DB.

What's going on with Silver. I remember six months ago you were big on the shinny stuff. You're lad had bought loads and was going to pay his mortgage off if it went up into the 30's.

You lost confidence in metals and miners now. Not seen you mention either recently. Just telcos.

What's you're take on the recent slap downs. $24. Will it go lower.

AG and AU struggling. Seems the FED and the LMBA\Comex have it in their sights to keep a lid on prices.

The sector is unloved.

Silver is likely going to $100,probably $200 and maybe $300 an oz at some point in this cycle.My son paid an average of £11.80 in sterling i think.He and his partner got a ten year fix mortgage and are overpaying it by around £7k a year + £2.5k capital repayment,its £92k now house £140k,he is 22.The idea is he will sell the silver and re-pay the mortgage when they meet.He should be mortgage free by 28 years old with silver at this price on a nice semi.I gave him no money and he works in a warehouse for a supermarket.

I sold some goldies after they doubled,trebled and quadrupled and bought other areas (some of them have trebled since as well like potash).Im retired and 49 and im not aiming now for big capital growth.My aims are a steady income that at least keeps up with inflation,and hopefully capital as well.I still own several silver miners and iv being adding recently to Yamana and smaller amounts in Harmony.

Silver itself im not interested really,it will get to where its going in its own time.If i didnt have mine id gladly buy it here.

DYOR etc

[Noallegiance]

3 hours ago, JREWING said:

 

The sector is unloved.

Just what we like to hear!

[ThoughtCriminal]

At the risk of displaying my ignorance, ive seen numerous references to this being the basement and we the basement dwellers. 

 

I was under the impression that this thread was the centrepiece of the forum. Do you mean to tell me that we are merely a sideshow? The freaks, degenerates and ne'er do wells of the forum? 

 

In short, what im asking is: 

[leonardratso]

hehe, maybe.

[DurhamBorn]

Here we go.Inflation feedback loops already starting and showing up how idiotic most MPs are and how they have zero macro understanding.

If i drive over to any factory over half the cars will be sub £5k.I doubt many of them can afford or will afford an electric car,2nd hand means a new battery and those will be over £5k alone.No car no job.Inflation will batter these idiot MPs.Worse they have already ensured not enough capital flowing to areas to keep inflation down to tolerable levels.

The electric market will soon see a huge shake out as smaller suppliers go under.Our grids are un-investable because of ROCE rates too low.

Between the benefit class and middle class is a big wedge of people who cant afford any of the governments ideas,never mind all of them.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/08/07/boris-johnsons-push-net-zero-plunged-chaos/

Toyota are warning again as well that going all electric is a disaster and has zero chance at the moment.Not that we cant in time,just no hope in the timescale.

The trade was and is a fantastic contrarian set up and with the macro clearly onside.

The only real risk is political,that politicians try to tax away the profits to cover their folly.

Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, is said to be increasingly concerned about a looming crisis over the cost of living for British households, as the country faces the triple threat of rocketing energy bills, the potential for rising prices as a result of inflation, and an as-yet unspecified suite of policies to enable the country to meet the net zero target.

[Hancock]

17 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, is said to be increasingly concerned about a looming crisis over the cost of living for British households, as the country faces the triple threat of rocketing energy bills, the potential for rising prices as a result of inflation, and an as-yet unspecified suite of policies to enable the country to meet the net zero target.

He isnt so worried about banging up the price of shelter by about 20% in 14 months.

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, Hancock said:

He isnt so worried about banging up the price of shelter by about 20% in 14 months.

Most people already own so arent affected,sad,but true.That will be coming though as rates are forced up.BOE will be watching failed bond auctions.