Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

8 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Invest in unlisted British firms, PM and Chancellor tell pension funds (msn.com)

As I've been expecting:

'Mr Johnson and Mr Sunak said that ministers would explain more about their plans in the coming weeks.  They said: “We need an investment big bang, to unlock the hundreds of billions of pounds sitting in UK institutional investors and use it to drive the UK’s recovery.”'

Methinks time to listen to the latest from Prof Napier!

[Harley]

I do my long term deals each Monday (with the Asians completing during the night).

Based on select fundamentals and the weekly/monthly chart actions:

. Buy - A machinery company (Hong Kong)

. Buy - A cement company (Hong Kong)

. Buy - A precious metals miner (Australia)

. Buy - A medical company (Singapore)

. Sell - An industrial machinery company (Hong Kong)

. Buy - A media company (Japan)

. Buy - A precious metals miner (UK)

. Buy - A precious metals miner (UK)

. Buy - A precious metal

. Buy - A steel manufacturer (UK)

. Buy - A metals/minerals miner (UK)

. Sell - A tobacco company (UK)

. Sell - An electric utility (UK)

Just an fyi, a slightly higher weekly volume, mix of adds, downs, ins and outs.

Most have been (sell) downs for the last few weeks.

Not advice, discussion purposes only, DYOR!

Maybe we should have another thread to post our anonymised deals for the week. 

Would help to see what sectors are hot/cold among our cohort.

A bit like our own Zoe app!

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, Don Coglione said:

It should, but benefits are so generous for so many and an entire generation has been raised with no semblance of a work ethic. As I have posted elsewhere, you could offer 50 quid an hour and you would still struggle to fill some roles in certain areas, unless benefits were slashed. This is the squaring of the circle of immigration forcing labour costs down, whilst simultaneously the State offering trampolines for all.

Much pain ahead 

Given the much-publicised lorry driver shortage, out of curiosity I did some job searches last night.

Hourly rate is still not much higher than it was two years ago when I last drove.

It would need to go up at least 50% for me to consider it. Even then I'd only go part time which isn't what logistics companies want.

[No One]

22 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

I'm reading through the original 'deflation' topic from 2018 in preparation for a longer post here regarding what to do with my savings but it's interesting to see things that were thought to be over-values in 2018 and have doubled since...

Here's a perfect example - can someone tell me why the fuck Netflix is worth 60 times what it was in 2012??

Their userbase in 2021 was a tiny fraction of what it is now. Back then Netflix was not really seen as a competitor to TV, now they are n1 online film viewing platform, (HBO Max, Disney Plus, Roku as competitors). 

 

see:

 

[sancho panza]

17 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

 the XOM earnings call transcript is worth a scan. Interesting snippet:

 

 

This is an example of what XOM does: buys into the Permian, applies its R&D and financial discipline and does it better than the rest. This may be why US production has remained flat when it should have fallen, along with the DUC drawdown. I have no idea how they are doing that, but it doesn't really matter to us. Just accelerates the peak of the Permian (all the other shale plays have peaked). It may also prevent a spike in the near term, allowing a more gradual rise in prices. Better for the thread thesis, and I've added more XOM, but I'm a more cautious on the 6-9mth LEAPS I've been running.

That's outside of the current price movements, I suspect that's still a normal consolidation which will run for a few more weeks till excess physical crude is mopped up outside the US. Doesnt matter for long term holds, it allows us accumulate more. But I'm now more interested in gold and silver for the speculative itch. Still have March 22 WTI calls mind you to cover a last run up fomo.

I'm very pleased with the earnings calls overall, great to see that cash rolling in. They are keeping spending flat too, so every dollar above $35/$40 is going to the bottom line.

The point you raise is one I'd have completely missed otherwise but it does go to explain why the drop is US shale production hasn't been as great as expected.Absolkutely fascinating to see XOM doing with 8 rigs what used to tkae 22.Therfore inferring that reading too much into the rig count could be a decent size error.

For the last couple of years,I've assumed that rig count=rig count and haven't made any allowance for increasing productivity like this.

Potentially hinting that a rig count 50% of 2018 could sustain US production-although there's a big assumption that other companies will follow Exxons lead.

I've been quietly pleased with these earnings so far in teh big oilies.Exactly what I was hoping for,sustainable divi increases for those that cut last year,buy backs etc.And all the time,the long term back drop ref Saudi spare capacity,US shale jsut gets better.

We bought that pullback to 280 on BP and $55 XOM with calls and some cash on the BP.

We're also quite heavy the calls in goldies -GOLD,AU,KGC but my options trading in goldies so far hasn't been great,looks like our Sept barrick's will expire worth squat but such is life.I called the bottom thus far on KGC relatively well tho.

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

s will be those who secure and open the best big basins for wind.Smaller,less suitable areas will be loss making.

So for all BPs mistakes,it could be them and Equinor are best placed because they are trying to get the best basins,even if paying more now than others think they are worth.

Its going to be interesting watching this all play out.

 

So from what you and @Cattle Prod are saying

good ones for wind-EQNR/BP

good ones for gas-SHell,ENI,Total

good ones for exploration-Total Eni,Gazprom

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Art has finally caught up on the DUC story

This is still clearly going to bite when the DUCs run out, despite XOMs advances. Not everyone has that tech or acreage. Going to be an interesting year. Also notable is many of the lesser OPEC lights are producing way below quota, like Angola. Because they are at full capacity and its dropping. They will stop adding back 400kb/month long before the end of their agreement term. I think Saudi only has c. 1.5m sustained capacity left.

You answered my point before I'd replied below ref XOM and their expertise.

For me,the key take home at the minute is whilst I foresee a big kahuna type deflationary wave,I don't think any amount of deflation will take oil back to $25 a barrell.I can see $35(I use my finger in the air) but I can't see sub $20 now given the deterioration in the supply since last year.

As for the final squeeze up to teh BK,like you say could get interesting.I previously researched hsitorical oil price aahead of recession and the 3 in 90,00,08 all featured rising oil prices into the recession between 200%to 270% as I remember (using monthlies) which gives us a target of $85 brent before the bust.I think we're going to exceeed that in the run up.

[sancho panza]

A very imporntant Wolf St piece in the scheme of many important wolf st pieces.

US consumers getting back into debt to the releief of the fed,.

This quote from Wolf says it all

'After 16 months of sweeping this stuff under the rug, there is now a huge mess under the rug,'

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/08/03/state-of-the-american-debt-slaves-the-forbearance-free-money-phenomenon-amid-soaring-prices-of-homes-autos/

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

To the Fed’s great relief, hardy American debt slaves are finally going deeper into debt, after having made unnerving efforts in prior quarters at paying down their credit cards, the most expensive debts with the biggest profit margins for banks. What helped push up total borrowing were massive price increases that had to be financed – particularly homes and vehicles – and the loans to finance these purchases jumped even if the volume of purchases didn’t.

Total household debt – mortgages, HELOCs, credit cards, auto loans, student loans, and other debt – jumped by $313 billion in Q2, from Q1, according to the New York Fed’s Household Debt and Credit report today. This 2.1% jump was the biggest quarter-over-quarter jump in years, matching Q4 2013, and both were the biggest jumps since 2007. The total balance of debt reached nearly $15 trillion.

 

Credit card balances & delinquencies: consumers are finally charging it again.

After paying down their credit cards since the peak in Q4 2019, which had confounded the folks at the Fed in the prior quarter, Americans finally saw their error and backtracked and racked up more debt on their cards, in order to pay 15% or 25% or even 30% in interest in a 0% interest-rate environment.

Credit card balances rose 2.2% from Q1, to $787 billion. Let’s hope that this uptick wasn’t “transitory,” or else the Fed is going to have a cow:

 

Student loans, oh my! Forbearance fixed everything.

Student loan balances ticked down a smidgen – as they often do in Q2, after the jump in Q1 – to $1.57 trillion, still up 1.9% from a year ago:

Even though few student loan borrowers are still making payments – eagerly waiting for the big kahuna to set them free – the serious delinquency rate dropped further, the sixth quarterly drop in a row, to 5.7% of total balances, the lowest in the data going back to 2003.

Delinquencies have dropped not because borrowers are suddenly catching up with their student loans in some magnificent manner, or are wasting their stimmies to catch up, but because student loans were automatically entered into forbearance last spring, and loans in forbearance don’t count as delinquent. Problem solved:

Home-price explosion pumps up mortgages, forbearance cures all.

Mortgage debt jumped 2.8% in Q2 from Q1, the biggest quarter-over-quarter jump since Q2 2007, amid the fastest rise in home prices in recorded US history, as it takes more dollars to finance the same home, and as refis are ballooning.

 

Mass-forbearance is the best thing that ever happened to sweeping delinquencies under the rug. Seriously delinquent mortgage balances dropped to 0.47% of total balances, the lowest in the data going back to 2003:

But forbearance for federally-backed mortgages, after having been extended, is running out this fall. At the end of Q2, there were still nearly two million mortgages in forbearance. To exit forbearance, the borrower will sell the home and pay off the mortgage, or the lender will refinance the mortgage often with lower payments and extended terms to make it easier for the borrower to pay for.

This is all part of a gigantic government-backed extend-and-pretend scheme that includes eviction bans for renters – now expired at the federal level but not at state and local levels – and student loan forbearance, still scheduled to expire at the end of September.

This is an economy where credit problems have been swept under the rug, where many consumers stopped making payments without negative consequences, even as free money hailed down upon them.

Because delinquencies are no longer delinquencies but count as “current,” credit scores rose on average – and in the process, credit scores have become useless for banks to determine the creditworthiness of a potential borrower.

After 16 months of sweeping this stuff under the rug, there is now a huge mess under the rug, and the temptation in government is to just keep it there and forget about it, or have the taxpayer clean it up, rather than consumers, lenders, and investors.

[Starsend]

6 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Could this help government reduce welfare as more local jobs become available?

They'll be scouring the world as we speak looking for cheap labour. They do not want to pay decent wages.

[Noallegiance]

Bank of England to tighten monetary policy to tame runaway inflation (msn.com)

[Starsend]

Looking at some of my bigger oil holdings this morning and their current yields (investing.com)

BP 4.84% (Does this include the recent increase?)

Shell 3.8%

Total 6.98%

Chevron 5.22%

Gazprom 4.45%

Repsol 6.16%

Exxon 5.98%

Pretty happy with the yields on all of those except bloody Shell. They've had the oil price up long enough now and the dividend is still way below what it was (it was 5%+ when the share price was £22). Thinking of selling and distributing the proceeds between some of the higher yielders.

[Loki]

7 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Bank of England to tighten monetary policy to tame runaway inflation (msn.com)

"At some point" 

[GTM]

5 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Looking at some of my bigger oil holdings this morning and their current yields (investing.com)

BP 4.84% (Does this include the recent increase?)

Shell 3.8%

Total 6.98%

Chevron 5.22%

Gazprom 4.45%

Repsol 6.16%

Exxon 5.98%

Pretty happy with the yields on all of those except bloody Shell. They've had the oil price up long enough now and the dividend is still way below what it was (it was 5%+ when the share price was £22). Thinking of selling and distributing the proceeds between some of the higher yielders.

That doesn't seem to take into account the large rise in the divi that Shell announced the other day. 4 quarterly payments $0.24 payments looks more like a ~4.7% yield.

[Starsend]

20 minutes ago, GTM said:

That doesn't seem to take into account the large rise in the divi that Shell announced the other day. 4 quarterly payments $0.24 payments looks more like a ~4.7% yield.

Ah good stuff, much better, job to keep up with yields over the last year or so.

Very tempted to increase my holding in Total with a yield at almost 7%. Anybody have any thoughts as to how sustainable that yield is especially given they just missed second quarter earning expectations?

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

Anybody have any thoughts as to how sustainable that yield is especially given they just missed second quarter earning expectations?

If you go to Simply Wall Street I believe you get a few free tries so you could type in TotalEnergies and go to the dividend section for a yield history and forecast.  You can also go to a site such as investing.com and look at their cash flow statement for the last 5 years to see how dividends compare to operating cash flow now and historically, etc

[DurhamBorn]

This will grow and grow.If i drive past a big factory near me with around 400 cars in the car park,id guess around half couldnt afford to pay more than £2k/£5k for a car.Half the workforce that still bothers working wouldnt be able to get to work.I expect they have no chance of a ban,and will fluff it by saying hybrids are ok for much longer.Boris is on borrowed time and i expect Sunak to sink it all somehow.Probably by saying any spending increase has to have new funded tax increases and he will simply ask Boris what taxes he wants putting up by massive amounts.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/15782776/tory-rebels-fight-2030-ban-petrol-diesel-cars/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebarweb

German gas demand in the below 21 to 23.Should be noted energy prices are rocketing in Germany,and even worse in Spain.Both need massive grid investments,but the grids wont invest because politicians are trying to force them to take lower margins to try to hold down massive increases onto consumers and business because of their carbon credits etc and they have only just started.Inflation tends to find out politicians.

https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2021/07/13/10662735/germany-revises-2030-power-demand-estimate-up-by-13

[DurhamBorn]

BOE predicted 2.5% inflation as the peak,  i had 3.8% as the target in the autumn from two years ago and its looking very good for that now.

How can the BOE be so wrong?.Surely they are simply lieing?,because what they are really doing is funding the governments structural deficit,mostly welfare spending and government workers pensions rather than make the government deal with it.All main CBs are working together here so no-one suffers a big currency hit by them all printing.One will stop QE though and then it gets interesting.

I think we might hit 4.3-4.6% (14% in basics so bottom 30% will be seeing around 9%/12% inflation) then a slow down where they think 2% is back in line,but then a new turn upwards that lasts the cycle.

 

 

[Hancock]

48 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

but then a new turn upwards that lasts the cycle.

When do you see the next cycle ending.

[reformed nice guy]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

BOE predicted 2.5% inflation as the peak,  i had 3.8% as the target in the autumn from two years ago and its looking very good for that now.

How can the BOE be so wrong?.Surely they are simply lieing?,because what they are really doing is funding the governments structural deficit,mostly welfare spending and government workers pensions rather than make the government deal with it.All main CBs are working together here so no-one suffers a big currency hit by them all printing.One will stop QE though and then it gets interesting.

I think we might hit 4.3-4.6% (14% in basics so bottom 30% will be seeing around 9%/12% inflation) then a slow down where they think 2% is back in line,but then a new turn upwards that lasts the cycle.

 

 

is it mis-aligned incentives? The BOE pension scheme is all index linked bonds I think. Maybe they should be inverse index linked - if inflation is 1% their pensions go up 5%. If inflation is 5% their pensions go up 1%. That would sharpen minds

[Sugarlips]

2 hours ago, Hancock said:

When do you see the next cycle ending.

This guy reckons any day now, the market has lost its momentum as is due to correct, watch 4300 on the s&p

 

[Barnsey]

[jamtomorrow]

Apologies if already posted (been dipping in and out last few weeks), but I thought this new SEEDs was a belter.

Almost completely off-topic by Tim's standards, this one is all about dollar valuation and trends in how the FX markets value the dollar compared to how you might value the dollar based on PPP.

I've not seen an analysis like this before, utterly fascinating. It's not that long by usual standards, so pasting the whole thing ...

https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2021/08/02/207-could-the-dollar-crack/

#207. Could the dollar crack?

Posted on August 2, 2021

MEASURING THE USD PREMIUM

How big is the Chinese economy? On one level, that question is easily answered – last year, China’s GDP was RMB 91 trillion.
For comparative purposes, though, what’s that worth in dollars? Authoritative sources will tell you that China’s dollar GDP in 2020 was $14.7tn. Those same sources will also inform you that it was $24.1tn. That’s a huge difference. On the first basis, the Chinese economy remains 30% smaller than that of the United States ($20.9tn). On the second, it’s already 15% bigger.
The explanation for this very big difference lies, of course, in the two ways in which economic data from countries other than the United States can be converted into dollars. One of these is to apply average market exchange rates for the period in question. For convenience, we can call this market conversion.
The alternative is PPP, meaning “purchasing power parity”. To apply this conversion, statisticians compare the prices of the same products and services in different countries. (One such common product is a hamburger, which is why, in its early days, PPP was sometimes called “the hamburger standard”).
The differences between market and PPP calibrations of GDP are enormous. Last year, world GDP was $85tn on the market convention, but $132tn in PPP terms. At the same time, the use of PPP conversion diminishes America’s share of the global economy. Last year, the United States accounted for 25% of global GDP in market terms, but only 16% on the PPP basis.
Using PPP instead of market conversion doesn’t make the economy ‘bigger’, of course. It just means that a higher dollar value is ascribed to economic activity outside the United States.
There’s no ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ way of converting non-American economic numbers into dollars. To a certain extent, it’s case of selecting the convention best suited to the topic being examined. Market conversion is appropriate for transaction values, such as trade, and cross-border assets and liabilities. PPP provides a better measure of the comparative sizes of economies around the world. (The SEEDS economic model produces parallel output on both conventions, though with a preference for PPP).
For macroeconomic purposes, the PPP convention is arguably more meaningful than market conversion, because it better reflects the economic scale of countries like China and India. Additionally, it leaves both market sentiment and short-term vicissitudes out of the process. PPP conversion has been with us for decades, and is carried out by reputable authorities, such that we can accept it as a valid and consistent alternative basis of currency comparison.
Market rates are determined by many factors other than economic comparison. FX market players have multifarious reasons for liking or disliking various currencies. Their opinions do not constitute economic ‘facts’.
An obvious example here is the reaction to the “Brexit” vote. British citizens obviously didn’t wake up 20% poorer on the morning after the referendum, but that’s what market dollar valuation of the UK economy implied. By the same token, market-rate conversion asks us to believe that the economy of resource-rich Russia is a lot smaller (at $1.4tn) than that of Italy ($1.9tn).
People in Russia, China, India and elsewhere are not poorer because FX markets don’t, relatively speaking, like their currencies. Currency undervaluation against PPP equivalence does make these countries’ imports more expensive, but it also gives their exports a competitive advantage.
Benchmarking the market dollar premium
For present purposes, the importance of having two FX conversion conventions is that it enables us to benchmark the dollar itself. Using world economic data going back over four decades, we can examine the relationship between the PPP and the market valuations of the dollar.
In 2020, for example, the GDP of the world outside the United States (WOUSA) was $63tn on the market basis, but $111tn in PPP terms. From this we can infer, either that market conversion undervalues the WOUSA economy, or that the market dollar trades at a premium to its PPP equivalent.
For convenience, we can call this difference the market dollar premium, and calculate the ratio for 2020 at 1.74:1. Put another way, the market dollar commanded a 74% premium over the PPP dollar last year.
There’s nothing abnormal about the dollar enjoying a valuation premium over other currencies. The dollar’s pre-eminence can be traced back to 1945, when America accounted for half of the global economy, and was the world’s biggest creditor. The dollar, after all, is the world’s reserve currency, and the benchmark against which other currencies are measured. Most oil trade continues to take place in dollars, providing a ‘petro-prop’ for the USD, because anyone wanting to purchase oil must first buy dollars.
This being so, it’s no surprise that PPP comparison reveals a market dollar premium.
What’s interesting, though, is the upwards trend in this premium.
In 1980, it stood at 30%.  It reached 40% in 2001, and 50% during 2005-06. The market dollar premium reached 60% in 2009, and 70% in 2015. Based on consensus projections, the premium is expected to carry on rising, from 74% last year to 79% by 2026. Perhaps most strikingly, the dollar premium is twice as big now (74%) as it was in 1999 (37%).
Does the market’s attachment of a widening premium to the dollar make economic sense? It’s at least arguable that it doesn’t. Quite aside from the rise of economies such as China – and America’s falling share of world GDP – there are reasons to suppose that the economic pre-eminence of the United States is eroding, and that the market dollar premium, far from widening, should be contracting.
The most obvious negatives for the market dollar premium are to be found in the fiscal and monetary spheres. Starting in 2008, the Fed has operated monetization policies on a gargantuan scale, lifting the Fed’s assets from $0.8tn in June 2008 to $8.1tn today. Interest rates have been below any realistic estimate of inflation since the 2008-09 global financial crisis (GFC) and, with inflation now rising, are negative to the tune of at least 4.0%, and probably more. With the administration seemingly addicted to fiscal stimulus, and with the Fed apparently willing to go on monetizing deficits, these trends seem set to continue.
Scaling back or reversing QE – or, for that matter, raising rates to head off inflation – would prompt a greatly-amplified repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum”, and tightening monetary policy could harm the US economy, would trigger sharp falls in asset prices, and would push up the cost of government borrowing. Neither monetization, large scale money creation or negative real rates can be considered positive for the value of a currency.
There’s a clear danger, then, that the US could push the dollar’s “exorbitant privilege” too far.
Meanwhile, the Fed also has to be mindful of the shadow banking system, sometimes called “non-bank financial intermediation”. This isn’t the place for a detailed consideration of shadow banking, but the system resembles an inverted pyramid, with very large assets (which have been put at $200tn) resting on a narrow base of collateral. Government bonds in general, and American bonds in particular, play a central role in this collateral.
Simply stated, a battle royal is likely to be waged between not-so-“transitory” inflation, on the one hand, and, on the other, pressing reasons for not raising the cost of money. 
This might not matter all that much if the market dollar premium hadn’t risen as far as it has. The use of PPP for benchmarking isn’t common practice, but the calculations required for calibrating the market dollar premium aren’t exactly rocket-science – and the implications of this calculation are stark.        
The conclusion seems to be that the dollar now trades at a more-than-exorbitant premium to other currencies – just as America is getting mired in a tug-of-war between stimulus and inflation.

[Majorpain]

Nice chart on exactly what's going on with shipping and curiously it doesn't seem to be showing any sign of stopping yet.  Its the trade not being two way that is going to kill globalism and China, this is going to cause the CCP some problems.

[planit]

Wow, things are happening really quickly, there are so many great posts highlighting issues in the last 3 days that this thread has been discussing recently (and earlier).

The comments on the Twitter post @Cattle Prod posted yesterday were asking all the same questions just months later than on here (directed by @Cattle Prod  )

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

German gas demand in the below 21 to 23.Should be noted energy prices are rocketing in Germany,and even worse in Spain.Both need massive grid investments,but the grids wont invest because politicians are trying to force them to take lower margins to try to hold down massive increases onto consumers and business because of their carbon credits etc and they have only just started.Inflation tends to find out politicians.

https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2021/07/13/10662735/germany-revises-2030-power-demand-estimate-up-by-13

This is also right on theme too, Petrol/Diesel hold a lot of [chemical] energy and this article shows existing calculations are pie in the sky. This chartshows the shortfall - not the blue line but the black dot at the top right.

Also from the article The hydrogen supply shortfall is even worst, over 80%! (I doubt they even have allowed for any electricity in the graph below to produce it so push up the balck dot a lot further)

 

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

German gas demand in the below 21 to 23.Should be noted energy prices are rocketing in Germany,and even worse in Spain.Both need massive grid investments,but the grids wont invest because politicians are trying to force them to take lower margins to try to hold down massive increases onto consumers and business because of their carbon credits etc and they have only just started.Inflation tends to find out politicians.

https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2021/07/13/10662735/germany-revises-2030-power-demand-estimate-up-by-13

This is a constant theme, not doing the maths right and ignoring the supply/demand in an international market. Why would anyone invest in Germany with these rules when you could build in Poland and then screw the Germans over with really high priced energy.

8 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Apache reveals it has blown its DUC wad, for one:

I suspect there will be more.

This fits in with the post yesterday, they have all pushed production up as much as possible which increased rates but with a shorter well lifetime. This is lining up exactly as you predicted which would be an amazing call if it realises. Steady decline in US production over a couple of months will push up prices from an already high level. I watched Looney talk and reading between the lines he expects oil price to be higher in the short and medium term. His phrasing when asked was something like "we expect there to be constrained supply dynamics which will support the price".

 

Democrats Propose Big Oil Polluters’ Fund

He also mentioned “companies like ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, and Chevron” as the biggest polluters, saying they would have to shell out some $5-6 billion annually for the fund. 

 

So the polluters are the oil companies, this is something else I have been waiting for. Again this pushes things the wrong direction and will result in even higher prices and more supply constraint. Easier to go after the seller than the consumer-polluter.

 

[DurhamBorn]

8 hours ago, Hancock said:

When do you see the next cycle ending.

Roughly between 27 and 30,and a currency collapse,however lots of time for that to change,we still have a deflation pull in many areas with price inflation.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Just had my quote for when my fix expires: £55pcm to £82pcm!  I like them as I do not need a smart meter.  Nice to hear JHB challenge an "expert" today who was trying to argue how they help lower costs for the hard up - no they don't, they're for the benefit of the suppliers/HMG as they'll increase costs as they enable suppliers to charge differential pricing (times, etc)! 

PS:  I meant to say, assuming this is the new standard, then £984 pa with NG. yielding 5.30% means a tax exempt holding of £18,566!  A bit of a bullish pennant chart pattern forming on the weekly and apparent tramlines (re. John Burford) on the daily or is that (using candles) a bearish descending chart pattern on the weekly?  Effing TA!  But what's interesting (and I'm seeing it a lot) is how many UK stocks are up against resistance levels so maybe such confusion is to be expected.  Take yer bets, as usual!