Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

1 hour ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

Trump must be short the markets again....

TRUMP SAYS WE COULD CUT OFF WHOLE RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA: FOX EXCLUSIVE

Australia is in an increasingly tough place.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

What happened at 3pm to make various share prices jump back up ????

 

 

3 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

Any dip buyers today?

I know I said I'd buy BT at 99p but I'm having second thoughts now 

so you think WW III incoming? 

It's a fair bet.

[Transistor Man]

13 minutes ago, JMD said:

Are Rolls-Royce jet engines part of Rolls-Royce cars, and all/both owned by BMW?

I'm thinking if Rolls-Royce jet engines are a separate company, and not foreign owned, then their 'mini off-the-shelf' nuclear technology might be of interest to British government.  

No, rolls Royce cars are owned by bmw.

They licence the name. A funny thing happened with VW buying Bentley and the “winged woman”, but not the name RR. I forget the details.

Aero Engines and submarine nuclear are separate. 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

That's interesting DB, I can only imagine what a royal kicking the big pension funds have been giving them. Perhaps BP has played the smarter hand: wait till next quarter and see if the smoke has cleared. That said, the BP CEO is making some odd noises, for example about peak demand. I need to hear more strategic clarity from him too. 

Yeah,i think its certain big shareholders have warned them.I think the divi should of been cut at Shell,but 30% cut not 66%.I expect it will go back to what will be a 30% to 40% cut.

Im really pleased that Trump is now putting it out there about China,a key part of the inflation road map is that this would happen and force both blocks to put the pedal to the metal.Uk should be able to supply lots of arms to the Aussie's they will want ships for certain.

I think a lot will come back west,but the easy stuff will go to India.Expect moves soon where the US and the UK really start to big up India.They hate the chinks and a strong India is a nightmare for China.

[nirvana]

5 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

What happened at 3pm to make various share prices jump back up ????

the PPT jumped into action 

it is interesting that it bottomed exactly on the hour, don't you think??

the markets are rigged for sure!! ......this is why you'll never get rich on Gold or Silver.....as long as US $ hegemony remains intact....I'm convinced of this 

[Harley]

21 minutes ago, JMD said:

....but isn't this what they call synchronicity?!

Thanks, I'll have to look that up and learn.  I do know that history often rhymes in its own off-beat way.

24 minutes ago, JMD said:

I shan't get too freaked out

Good lad!  As in my diver days when things got a bit hairy, just hug yourself!  This could be one freaky ride.  And as DB says, the main (maybe most realistic) objective is to just to manage to do less bad.  I've suffered paralysis for too long and am now royally sick of it.  This stuff is really hard mentally but I've got better support and recognition this time round and maybe more (slowly accumulated) critical mass to build on.  I've banked too many good (non-material) things in life to be scared anymore so "whatever".  Bring it on, if the cowardly bullies dare!   I may crudely go on about such "off topic" shite but getting in the right head space is paramount.  Too many castles have been in built in the sand.   Resilience.

3 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

 

Squeaky bum time or what?!!!

[Harley]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Trying to pick the winning complex trades here is insomnia inducing to me.

Yup, that and trying to work how to get a bit more off grid financially has been doing my head in.  I finally had enough and did what they shouted at me all those years ago "Just effing do something Harley, effing anything, just effing do it".  And then I fell asleep!

[TheCountOfNowhere]

11 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

the PPT jumped into action 

it is interesting that it bottomed exactly on the hour, don't you think??

the markets are rigged for sure!! ......this is why you'll never get rich on Gold or Silver.....as long as US $ hegemony remains intact....I'm convinced of this 

The more shares I've looked at most of them shot up at 3.

Something must have been announced.

[JMD]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes this thread is about road maps.I have no concerns over price today,none.My concerns now are about positioning.Im tracking the liquidity in the plumbing because i know the lags on that roughly.The more that builds the more certain sectors will gain.Of course everyone would love to pick the bottom,but iv never met anyone who can,and i never will.I have zero idea if oil stocks will be down 20% of up 20% in a month,or a year.I do have pretty high confidence oil will be over $100 by the end of the cycle,much more likely $200 and an outside chance of $300.

Telcos i feel are massively undervalued.I dont know if they go down a lot more or not.I do think inflation will help them.Vod for instance.I have zero idea about price this year.I do think they will be between £3 and £4 + divis by 2029.

This threads whole train of thought was that the consumer would be swept away and we are being proved 100% right on that.We didnt guess on what would cause it,but that is why now we need to change positioning in some areas.

I concur completely with what you say DB. For me, this forum is about the macro trends and which I find fascinating and really do help 'illuminate world events' - but more importantly from an investor perspective, such insights help me to position my portfolio. In turn, I hope this can deliver the practical 'edge' traders talk so often about - though i hasten to add that i am a mere investor, not a trader.

I have sometimes asked for clarification about future prices (but only if such info. has been offered/discussed prior) - but this is only so that i can calculate my personal risk/reward. Too be honest, this is the area where i struggle. Risk/reward is a crucial thing to get right (feeds into portfolio balance, asset allocations, etc), but is so often ignored. Anyway, I am still learning and note that over the last few years i have become more and more risk averse, and now find i'm fully 'subscribed' to the de-complex trade.

I'll sign-off by saying big thanks DB for starting (and sticking with) this excellent forum, i think at the start of this blog you said that it would be a rollercoaster and you weren't wrong!

[Harley]

22 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

They hate the chinks and a strong India is a nightmare for China.

Indeed.  They still have an unfinished war!

[JMD]

22 minutes ago, Transistor Man said:

No, rolls Royce cars are owned by bmw.

They licence the name. A funny thing happened with VW buying Bentley and the “winged woman”, but not the name RR. I forget the details.

Aero Engines and submarine nuclear are separate. 

Thanks TransistorMan. I think that's important to know. RR nuclear tech might not be completely read-to-go off-the-shelf, but British government might just contract them to develop it if there is half chance of RR delivering, especially if electricity supplies become strained in future. I think such technology could provide a very valuable stop gap, before (hydrogen, etc) renewables come on stream.   

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Cant find any news that broke at 3pm. 

 

Did the BoE asset purchaser have the morning off ?

[nirvana]

6 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Something must have been announced.

PPT = plunge protection team, someone at the FED gave the nod to buy the markets at 10am New York time methinks.......

once the US markets are open, the whole world just follows them.....even the Germans  the DAX had a dramatic bounce too

Individual stocks are pretty much irrelevant, it's just 'follow the money markets'.......

[JMD]

45 minutes ago, Harley said:

I wasn't limiting myself to the oilies, by a long way.  I once had cause to trace an ownership chain as part of an acquisition and ended up with a secretive private equity company resident in the Caribbean.  All sorts could be going on, including secretive shares for favours.  Great if you are on the inside proper (i.e. not a patsy just thinking you are).  there is also a TED talk on the matter by a biologist(?) who used their trace techniques to look into who owns what in the world.  Ultimately came down to a handful, like 60 or 600 odd people/organisations/families.  Max Keiser has been all over this subject.  

thanks Harley, its that kind of insight that has helped me greatly with understanding risk, etc. To think i didn't even know what a synthetic etf was until a couple years ago, i really was a danger to my self!, not to mention my my wealth!!

[nirvana]

Bernie Sanders Hasn’t Quite Captured What Wall Street Does: It’s Actually a Fraud-Monetization System with a Money-Printing Unit Called the New York Fed 

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/01/bernie-sanders-hasnt-quite-captured-what-wall-street-does-its-actually-a-fraud-monetization-system-with-a-money-printing-unit-called-the-new-york-fed/

[TheCountOfNowhere]

20 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

PPT = plunge protection team, someone at the FED gave the nod to buy the markets at 10am New York time methinks.......

once the US markets are open, the whole world just follows them.....even the Germans  the DAX had a dramatic bounce too

Individual stocks are pretty much irrelevant, it's just 'follow the money markets'.......

It's criminal.

If you know it's coming you can make a fortune.

At some point I reckon the bankers will be strung up for what they've done.

It's all going 1920's Germany

[nirvana]

I just checked BT, they bounced start going up just after 3pm BST, coincidence or did the MD just announce a new contract win? 

Anyway I got a tip to buy RDSB at £10.26 ......let's see 

@TheCountOfNowhere exactly, the primary dealers get the nod, us plebs just have to rummage around looking at the charts for 'scraps' 

4 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

At some point I reckon the bankers will be strung up for what they've done

they won't cos the one percenters are all in on it and getting even richer 

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

I am quite concerned at the moment of staying in cash. This is on both the personal and business side of things (with more cash 'exposed' with the latter). I accept it's a nice problem to have but it's a problem nonetheless. I sincerely believe that we are now at a point in history where anything can happen, socially, politically, financially. Despite the FSCS £85K scheme, I remain to be convinced that this is entirely watertight if more than one bank happens to go under. Our business cash is our pension but it not yet fully 'made up' in that we need 3 more years of earnings nor is the current balance ready to be deployed into the right areas (which might include property). I've moved a tranche into bullionvault but I'm not confident enough to chuck it all into PM. Bought some stocks as well but again it's too volatile at the moment. If there was a NS&I scheme for businesses I would probably move all surplus cash into there (but there isn't).

I was very interested to catch up with David Hunter's latest macro blog and his prediction of a final melt up to labor day and then the big slide downwards for stocks (and also temporarily for PM). However, even that brings problems if one was to temporarily cash out before going back in later. eg even more cash in the bank just when the wheels are falling off.

It's going to be a bumpy ride for the next 2 to 3 years. I think the path will be clearer by then (even if it's full of burning wreckage)

Yes, the realisation of a future systemic market collapse happening (2028?) has personally 'hit me' big time since the CV19 entered our lives. Yes, we were warned about the prospect of a black swan event happening, but when it did arrive, i admit the policy response, lockdown, etc (and lapped up by the public, which i have found equally as shocking) has figuratively knocked me for six, because i now appreciate how quick these things can/will happen and how far our leaders are likely to go (with, in all likelihood, the blessing of the electorate). But i am now forewarned, so not all bad i suppose!

Like you i have a similar - 'nice problem' to have - in that i have a large amount sitting in cash. I need to decide what to do with it, but do have it currently in different banks. But what worries me is how much i should reasonably invest into my single Interactive Investor sipp. I will be transferring my DB pension into my sipp later in the year and so for a time (perhaps a long period of time) my sipp will be holding a large cash amount. Of course once invested in equities, etc, i will still be investing via one platform provider (ie interactive investor), but I am assuming that this problem is a common one experienced by many sipp investors and could really only be mitigated by opening several sipps with different providers?          

[Harley]

3 minutes ago, JMD said:

I am assuming that this problem is a common one experienced by many sipp investors and could really only be mitigated by opening several sipps with different providers?          

Is the problem not that the compensation scheme limit is per bank and the providers are sharing the same banks (but good luck getting that level of detail from them)?  I'm actively researching drawdown.   Take out 25% tax free, shove in NS&I, etc and then filter back into ISAs, etc.  And that includes a normal trading account (overseas?).  People forget the first £12,300 or whatever of gains per person per year is CGT free which would be enough for me to live on, should I be lucky enough to make that much (even more if I include up to another £12,500 income).  So a couple could take out £24,600 capital gains plus £25,000 tax free income a year.  Far more than we need.

[Sasquatch]

5 minutes ago, JMD said:

Yes, the realisation of a future systemic market collapse happening (2028?) has personally 'hit me' big time since the CV19 entered our lives. Yes, we were warned about the prospect of a black swan event happening, but when it did arrive, i admit the policy response, lockdown, etc (and lapped up by the public, which i have found equally as shocking) has figuratively knocked me for six, because i now appreciate how quick these things can/will happen and how far our leaders are likely to go (with, in all likelihood, the blessing of the electorate). But i am now forewarned, so not all bad i suppose!

Like you i have a similar - 'nice problem' to have - in that i have a large amount sitting in cash. I need to decide what to do with it, but do have it currently in different banks. But what worries me is how much i should reasonably invest into my single Interactive Investor sipp. I will be transferring my DB pension into my sipp later in the year and so for a time (perhaps a long period of time) my sipp will be holding a large cash amount. Of course once invested in equities, etc, i will still be investing via one platform provider (ie interactive investor), but I am assuming that this problem is a common one experienced by many sipp investors and could really only be mitigated by opening several sipps with different providers?          

It's impossible to be sure of making the right decision but decisions ultimately need to be made. I think the majority view amongst the dosbods lot and similar minded people outside is that cash will be a very poor choice long term as inflation takes hold. I want to get our personal money into the right long term home (we are trying to move at the moment!) and bring this new house up to a high spec level in terms of repair and fit out. Second to this is buying all of the useful gear one would aspire to owning (garden equipment and tools, trailer for car etc, DIY equipment, ) and then leisure equipment (ie bicycles, walking gear and the like). At that point any spare cash needs to be kept somewhere - maybe in premium bonds or a decent interest bearing account with the best bank/surety you can find. Business money may end up being used to buy property and partly drawn down on an annual basis. We may help our children buy their first homes and it's also possible we could buy our aged parents a house which they could rent back from our business. Again, we need to get the business money out of cash as a medium term goal (3 to 5 years). We are aiming to be fully retired within the next 5 years.

Finally I have a SIPP which I took into my 100% total control last year (it was previously a SIPP being partly handled by an IFA). It's with James Hay. 65% is in gold (via bullionvault), 20% in reflation stocks, 15% currently in cash. I may put the remaining cash into gold but will see if there is a pull back later in the summer before doing this. The SIPP is above the £85,000 FSCS compensation level but I'm reasonably relaxed as more than half of the SIPP money is sat in bullionvault. Worst case scenario would be the SIPP provider going bust and the inevitable delay as my SIPP got transferred to a new provider. The bullionvault account and Selftrade accounts would presumably simply transfer across. I haven't dug deep into the consequences of a SIPP provider going bust but unless someone can tell me otherwise, I would think the only risk would be monies held in the cash above the £85,000 level.

[CVG]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

he's got it out the wazoo

Please stop it. I cant get this ad out of my mind

 

[Harley]

5 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

I think the path will be clearer by then (even if it's full of burning wreckage)

 

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Thanks for highlighting that @sancho panza - I take your point and your subsequent Big Kahuna comment. I'm not basing my decisions on anyone's specific advice here or elsewhere but simply a gut feeling I need to spread what little cash I have around to cover myself and already have outside of stocks and shares. All the best

Hi GL,

have a listen to some of the podcasts about 5 pages ago and then form your own opinion based on these and other factors...that's what I did...whether it will play out the that way though who knows :-)

[geordie_lurch]

28 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Hi GL,

have a listen to some of the podcasts about 5 pages ago and then form your own opinion based on these and other factors...that's what I did...whether it will play out the that way though who knows :-)

Yes I have listened to most of them and I'm well aware there's no guarantees for any of life.

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

What happened at 3pm to make various share prices jump back up ????

 

 

It's a fair bet.

@YRS bought them in the morning before they dropped and then after a good lunch changed his mind and sold them in the afternoon? :-) :-) :-)