Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[Boon]

That's basically an AirBNB but also chancing it on Rightmove (hence the £150 a night). Doesn't seem very suitable as one.

Its a desperate pitch hoping there is an idiot out there willing to pay somehow. 

Not a terrible sign really, not too many steps to capitulation and selling up.

 

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Been trying to find that cartoon that was oft seen on TOS. Think it was by "Matt".

Bloke in estate agents:

"How much is this house"?

..............

"How much is it now"?

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

[Bus Stop Boxer]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Aye saw that one the other day. The original was pre internet really so cant find a scan.

[Boon]

This thread might be worth keeping an eye on:

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6394248/how-are-people-actually-coping-with-mortgage-payments-increasing

It has to be a slow burner because not all deals are up at the same time and the rise in mortgage rates has been real rapid. 

Another factor, at lower levels of borrowing the pain might be manageable, finding £200-300 month just means cutting back on other things, like holidays. At higher levels then it changes. Others might have a big equity cushion, so they can sell and downside at least.

The epicentre is gonna be months and months away I feel, and if there is a realisation the government are going to do nothing then that will compound it. At the moment much like bond market I sense there is a point of pain at which something will be done.

[spygirl]

4 minutes ago, Boon said:

This thread might be worth keeping an eye on:

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6394248/how-are-people-actually-coping-with-mortgage-payments-increasing

It has to be a slow burner because not all deals are up at the same time and the rise in mortgage rates has been real rapid. 

Another factor, at lower levels of borrowing the pain might be manageable, finding £200-300 month just means cutting back on other things, like holidays. At higher levels then it changes. Others might have a big equity cushion, so they can sell and downside at least.

The epicentre is gonna be months and months away I feel, and if there is a realisation the government are going to do nothing then that will compound it. At the moment much like bond market I sense there is a point of pain at which something will be done.

Hard to say.

Unlike the 90s when most were on SVR, so any IR raise went straight onto next months payment, now people are fixed 2-5 years.

Slow burn, but a burn none the less.

 

 

 

[Noallegiance]

Anecdotal:

There's a person I know about whom I have found out some detail.

Bought flat in 1998. IO. Mortgage due next year.

Trying to get rid of tenant to repossess and sell.

Lease down to 50 years next year. £50k to extend to 199 years. Difference of up to 50% in potential sale price.

Recent council introduction of £750 to register as fit and proper LL property for rental even though they're trying to not be a LL now.

Incomplete documentation over life of rental means may be refused repossession order.

Many hundreds of LL in area afflicted with same box-ticking problem.

 

The only way it could get worse for them is if they somehow succeed in repossession, pay to extend the lease and then can't sell the flat.

[Guest]

 

Edited October 21, 2022 by Guest

[tlc]

22 minutes ago, Boon said:

This thread might be worth keeping an eye on:

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6394248/how-are-people-actually-coping-with-mortgage-payments-increasing

It has to be a slow burner because not all deals are up at the same time and the rise in mortgage rates has been real rapid. 

Another factor, at lower levels of borrowing the pain might be manageable, finding £200-300 month just means cutting back on other things, like holidays. At higher levels then it changes. Others might have a big equity cushion, so they can sell and downside at least.

The epicentre is gonna be months and months away I feel, and if there is a realisation the government are going to do nothing then that will compound it. At the moment much like bond market I sense there is a point of pain at which something will be done.

Quote

We have £477k left on our mortgage, house worth £850k so approx 55% LTV. Monthly payment £1750. 26 yrs remaining. 
Current fix of 1.09% end in May 2023. ERC is £14k! This is with Santander. 

The follow on rate is 5.5% which would put our monthly payments up to £2835. +£1085. Now, this wouldn't be so bad except I am towards the end of maternity leave and nursery fees will now be £1200 a month also. I will be working full time in a stressful role for nothing basically. 

I don't know whether to try and secure a new deal now and add the ERC onto the mortgage or wait until the New Year? I feel at a loss quite honestly. 

I don't even think we can increase the term as my husband is 44 and me 39. 

It's going to be a tough few years I think. 

 

[Wight Flight]

4 minutes ago, Darude said:

Wanting £4500pcm in rent (plus £5190 deposit) but can't be bothered to spend £60+VAT to create a floorplan so potential customers can understand how much house they'd be getting for the money

Rentals never get a floor plan. Unless it is also for sale.

We didn't even get photographs of our current place (luckily so as it happens)

[Wight Flight]

The day I, as renter scum, get offered a lower interest rate on a car loan than a mortgaged homeowner does, will be the day the music has stopped.

[sancho panza]

59 minutes ago, tlc said:

We have £477k left on our mortgage, house worth £850k so approx 55% LTV. Monthly payment £1750. 26 yrs remaining. 
Current fix of 1.09% end in May 2023. ERC is £14k! This is with Santander. 

The follow on rate is 5.5% which would put our monthly payments up to £2835. +£1085. Now, this wouldn't be so bad except I am towards the end of maternity leave and nursery fees will now be £1200 a month also. I will be working full time in a stressful role for nothing basically. 

I don't know whether to try and secure a new deal now and add the ERC onto the mortgage or wait until the New Year? I feel at a loss quite honestly. 

I don't even think we can increase the term as my husband is 44 and me 39. 

It's going to be a tough few years I think. 

Hard to read that.

I think the top end of the market is really fubar here due to the cost of carry being relatively fixed eg council tax/minimal heating.

lower end less so.

but those figures......going from monthly payment of £1750 to £3920 plus £1200 in nursery fees.

there's jsut no way out of that car crash unlessyou get a big pay rise/inherit.

I'd also say here current LTV is likely somewhere north of 75% if she was honest with herself.possibly worse.

spend 20 years building your equity and then it's gone in 2 or 3 if IRs dont come back down

[One percent]

4 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

This is how landlords are going to bail themselves out.

Just triple the price and shorten the term. Bingo.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/128264264?#/?channel=RES_LET

(Similar houses in that street were £1,100 earlier this year)

That’s the holiday let rates, yes?  

[Chewing Grass]

I know two local business owners at the larger end of small businesses who have just put their houses up for sale, one does engineering maintenance the other has an employment agency. Both are wanting to downsize and both properties are about the £1M mark with the most expensive one having horsey land.

I get the impression that despite them talking about the burden of maintenance and having 'other land' for the horses it is a more a case of the businesses starting to be less profitable and the mortgages metastasising.

I wouldn't have expected either of them to downsize...

[Wight Flight]

3 minutes ago, One percent said:

That’s the holiday let rates, yes?  

Three months is a long holiday let.

It might be the new homeless but not potless rental market.

[One percent]

3 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Three months is a long holiday let.

It might be the new homeless but not potless rental market.

Please do keep an eye on it. Hope the greedy cunt comes a cropper. 

[Chewing Grass]

On 07/10/2022 at 15:34, Chewing Grass said:

Just been for a look at the first half of my postcode and we are at 221.

So 239-223-228-231-226-226-224 -221over the last 60 days.

Looks like the rush for the exit is over and things have plateaued oop north.

Just been back for a looky see and we have just hit a new record of 246.

Back in the Spring it was 150-160.

So 239-223-228-231-226-226-224 -221-246 over the last 74 days.

 

[Axeman123]

Did you ever think we would see headlines like this?

UK housing sales fall but real ‘horror story’ yet to come

(Gaurdian via Yahoo Finance)

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-housing-sales-fall-real-132606643.html

Why you should wait until 2024 to buy a house

(Telegraph, again via YF and actually from Wednesday)

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-wait-until-2024-buy-170000598.html

 

[HousePriceMania]

1 minute ago, Axeman123 said:

Did you ever think we would see headlines like this?

UK housing sales fall but real ‘horror story’ yet to come

(Gaurdian via Yahoo Finance)

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-housing-sales-fall-real-132606643.html

Why you should wait until 2024 to buy a house

(Telegraph, again via YF and actually from Wednesday)

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-wait-until-2024-buy-170000598.html

 

I always thought we would see headlines like this, what I didnt expect was the reasons.

The should have raised IRs years ago

House prices are the least of our worries

[Noallegiance]

40 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Hard to read that.

I think the top end of the market is really fubar here due to the cost of carry being relatively fixed eg council tax/minimal heating.

lower end less so.

but those figures......going from monthly payment of £1750 to £3920 plus £1200 in nursery fees.

there's jsut no way out of that car crash unlessyou get a big pay rise/inherit.

I'd also say here current LTV is likely somewhere north of 75% if she was honest with herself.possibly worse.

spend 20 years building your equity and then it's gone in 2 or 3 if IRs dont come back down

You forgot the £4k energy bill......

[Plan-b]

4 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

The CBs are hoping that inflation burns itself out through demand destruction, thats the bet and is risky if inflation get embedded the kitchen sink will be required to tame the beast. 

Edited October 21, 2022 by Plan-b

[Plan-b]

In the early 1980s Volcker had to reduce the M1 money supply to such an extent that this then caused interest rates to rise to 20% before finally dealing with 14.8% inflation.

Mass unemployment and civil unrest resulted.

Thats the only successful modern times precedent we have on what may be required if CBs/Fed leave it too long before inflation is dealt with.

Those that fail to learn from the mistakes of history are doomed to repeat them.

 

Edited October 21, 2022 by Plan-b

[Axeman123]

15 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Thats the only successful modern times precedent we have on what may be required if CBs/Fed leave it too long before inflation is dealt with.

Those that fail to learn from the mistakes of history are doomed to repeat them.

You and I know they won't have the stomach, and that we are doomed to repeat everything:

 

[Plan-b]

25 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

You and I know they won't have the stomach, and that we are doomed to repeat everything:

 

Yes they are adamant not to burst the Everything Everywhere Bubbles that infest the west.

Perhaps they can all be deflated gently over a long time who knows if they'll pull it off?

Meanwhile the man in the street will suffer while all of them and their mates enjoy a wonderful lifestyle gained off the backs of a controlled population.  

A reasonable place to call home and a decent lifestyle is all most people would want but Nah not them. The Greed of the few.

[RWJ]

3 hours ago, Boon said:

This thread might be worth keeping an eye on:

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6394248/how-are-people-actually-coping-with-mortgage-payments-increasing

Frightening sums. 

And this one https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6389959/greedy-mortgage-company

"I have contacted the mortgage company to ask for help, they advised me to change mortgage company" 

Feels like 08 over again.  It's going to be utter carnage soon, with 1.5m mortgages coming off a fixed rate next year. 

Either carnage or bail out, one of the two.