Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[Don Coglione]

On 22/02/2023 at 21:09, MrXxxx said:

Be interesting to compare that figure with how strict [in favour of the tenant] the housing laws are in each country...well here's Europe [with USA, China, India, & Japan at bottom]:

[https://www.eupedia.com/europe/legal_maps_of_europe.shtml#tenant_landlord]

 

....and 'Surprise, surprise' the lowest prices are found in those countries where tenants have greater protection [or stated another way, less need to buy]...and the most expensive property in found in the UK where its 'Pro Landlord'...the only exception here is Japan, but I think they are probably an outlier due to their economy in the last 30+ years

Sweden and Denmark cheap? Not anywhere you'd want to live, they're not!

[JoeDavola]

47 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Had the unfortunate experience of talking to a commission based 2nd hand house salesman yesterday, according to him the market is buoyant, everything is selling at (bubble mania level) asking prices and no one is going to accept low ball offers.

Would explain the prices I'm seeing in NI, which still continue to rise albeit slightly more slowly.

I also think that society is splitting very much into winners and losers separate but a significant wealth difference, and it'll be the winners competing for the few nice houses in this country at levels that are totally divorced from even a 'good' wage in this country.

Perhaps I just know people who are quite lucky but the standard joint family income in NI to be doing OK seems to be over £100K now.

[MrXxxx]

9 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

Sweden and Denmark cheap? Not anywhere you'd want to live, they're not!

It's relative to median salary earned in these countries...

[No One]

[Long time lurking]

18 hours ago, apples said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/house-prices-falling-now-best-time-move/ (full article text in quote)

House prices may be falling – but now is the best time to move

 

I just fell into a river now is the wrong time to start swimming 

[reformed nice guy]

2 hours ago, Don Coglione said:

Haven't you got that arse-backwards? What you are referring to is mark-to-model.

Mark-to-market is reality, ie we're fucked!

No idea what the original quote means; I suspect wannabe word salad, in an attempt to sound smart.

yes, apologies for the mix up

Mark to model is the made up one

[spunko]

Noticed today that Savills are putting an Indian agent's phone number on their "high end" listings, above the UK agent.

https://search.savills.com/in/en/property-detail/gbcbrscks220314

+91 is the country code for India

 

[Axeman123]

Sometimes you see a tweet that you couldn't have put better yourself:

 

[Bobthebuilder]

I don't keep accurate records for my search area, but today a 2 bed terrace has been listed at £195k. First time I have seen one below £200k in a while now, would have been around £160k pre convid.

[Noallegiance]

3 hours ago, spunko said:

Noticed today that Savills are putting an Indian agent's phone number on their "high end" listings, above the UK agent.

https://search.savills.com/in/en/property-detail/gbcbrscks220314

+91 is the country code for India

 

 

[No One]

[nirvana]

On 10/02/2023 at 14:35, Democorruptcy said:

SONIA 2yr swap rate has gone back above 4% from the 3.7% last Thursday night.

https://www.chathamfinancial.com/technology/european-market-rates

SONIA is 4.528% and US 1 year has gone above 5% today........keep watching, it's gonna be a bloodbath

[Democorruptcy]

2 minutes ago, nirvana said:

SONIA is 4.528% and US 1 year has gone above 5% today........keep watching, it's gonna be a bloodbath

Saving rates are a disgrace though, if they were above base rate like in the old days, mortgage rates would be higher.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk//money/article-1583859/Best-savings-rates-General-savings-Internet-branch.html

Commercial banks getting 4% on their deposits at the BoE (paid for by taxpayers) and ripping savers off to suppress mortgage rates. I posted a few saving rates on here at Truss time, some 5 year and they have had the rate cut and/or terms shortened, even though the base rate is well up since.

[onlyme]

5 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

I just fell into a river now is the wrong time to start swimming 

A great time to get out of that one and jump into a bigger one though, apparently.

[belfastchild]

6 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Would explain the prices I'm seeing in NI, which still continue to rise albeit slightly more slowly.

Mate was telling me yesterday, house across the road from him is up for sale, next door to one that sold just over a year ago.
He bought his as covid opened up for 135k.
The year ago one sold for 181k
The latest one is on for 155k and thinking about dropping it further for a quick sale.

Outside Belfast.

[MrXxxx]

Latest Rightmove above, and a 'new' perspective on the UK housing issue by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation below:

https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/reboot-building-housing-market-works-all

Edited February 24, 2023 by MrXxxx

[XswampyX]

47 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Latest Rightmove above, and a 'new' perspective on the UK housing issue by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation below:

https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/reboot-building-housing-market-works-all

Hmmm....

Quote

Modest price falls and tighter mortgage conditions risk the creation of a cash buyers’ market. Those with existing capital will be able to swoop in and buy property for letting as private rentals, short lets or other suboptimal uses – or simply to leave homes empty while waiting for house price growth. Meanwhile, those seeking to buy homes to live in, particularly first-time buyers, will find any benefit from modest price falls offset by higher interest rates. These factors risk exacerbating the current, unequal distribution of homes, which the Joseph Rowntree Foundation’s 2022 report 'Making a house a home' found is at the heart of the UK’s housing crisis.

You can get 4.25% for doing fuck all.

https://www.raisin.co.uk/savings-accounts/fixed-rate-bonds/1-year/#:~:text=Our best 1 Year Fixed,with large high street banks.

Ooooofgh!

 

Edited February 24, 2023 by XswampyX

[Boon]

That report reads like someone who doesn't want house prices to fall at all..... let's not have a cash buyers market by allowing mortgaged buyers to outbid them!

If you look at their balance sheet they have almost £200m of properties and a boat load of quoted investments (maybe these are property related as well).

Doesn't seem to be debts, but so is there some kind of ulterior motive?

[Ash4781b]

https://amp.theguardian.com/money/2023/feb/24/lots-of-us-are-very-anxious-why-britains-buy-to-let-landlords-are-selling

“Philip Harris, a 42-year-old designer who has properties in south and east London, became a landlord by accident after meeting his now wife. She already had a flat, but rented it out, and the couple bought a property off-plan, when it was still at the design stage. When their children were born, they needed more space and bought a third property, renting out the second one. At the time, they saw their small portfolio as a retirement investment, but now, worried about mounting costs, they want to reduce the risk by selling one of the homes.”

I don’t think accidental landlords exist. On one hand it’s investment then an accidental landlord.

[Bilbo]

Bear food from today Daily Telegraph.

Free link

https://archive.ph/2023.02.25-085810/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/news/have-entered-property-ice-age-coming-next/

 

[Long time lurking]

 

[Long time lurking]

11 hours ago, XswampyX said:

Hmmm....

You can get 4.25% for doing fuck all.

https://www.raisin.co.uk/savings-accounts/fixed-rate-bonds/1-year/#:~:text=Our best 1 Year Fixed,with large high street banks.

Ooooofgh!

 

Then factor it all the other debts likely now compared to 1989 credit  card car finance etc 

It`s looking like it`s really going to happen this time 

[Covid19 and life to go]

22 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Sometimes you see a tweet that you couldn't have put better yourself:

 

Kind of a bad correlation unless wages go to 2001 as well.

[JoeDavola]

19 hours ago, belfastchild said:

Mate was telling me yesterday, house across the road from him is up for sale, next door to one that sold just over a year ago.
He bought his as covid opened up for 135k.
The year ago one sold for 181k
The latest one is on for 155k and thinking about dropping it further for a quick sale.

Outside Belfast.

Interesting - perhaps Belfast is a separate market but if prices were to 'crash' to where they were 3 years ago before the pandemic I'd be very very happy with that - now they weren't cheap back then, just not as ridiculous as now.

No sign of that happening in Belfast, and I don't think it will to be honest especially in 'desirable' areas - some folk seem to be getting big big raises my mate who works for a certain American fintech place you have mates in is on basically £100K now by the time you add base salary, overtime, bonus and pension contribs for being a lead developer. Not doing mental hours or anything.

Salaries like that just didn't exist here 5 years ago.

Could see the arse falling out of BTL and nobody wanting to buy the ex-BTL terraces in what are now multicultural slums, but that's a totally different market.

Edited February 25, 2023 by JoeDavola

[JoeDavola]

26 minutes ago, Covid19 and life to go said:

Kind of a bad correlation unless wages go to 2001 as well.

I'd add that it's not just about wages + mortgage rates.

It's also about housing as a store of cumulative intergenerational wealth - people in the UK are housing obsessed and many see it as the only investment/asset class.

And to get even more doomer about it, UK housing is now a store of global cumulative intergenerational wealth, as that post from spunko showed where they're trying to sell mansions in Kent to Indians.