Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[eek]

36 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

There are two property porals in NI:

https://www.propertypal.com

and

https://www.propertynews.com/

Most houses appear on both. I have no idea why we have two of them.

EDIT: Oh and I'd add that the rising interest rates don't appear to have made a dent in NI prices at all. Some are selling but it's taking them longer. Some still sitting on the market. But suggests that the cost of mortgages are essentially of little importance to whether many houses sell here or not?

It's obvious but Interest rate rises have a long lead time before prices fall - houses need to sit for months / years before people grasp the house they thought was worth £x is worth £x-20/30%

But for years we've only seen the reverse because the time it takes for interest rate cuts to increase prices is 1ms.

[JoeDavola]

Just now, eek said:

It's obvious but Interest rate rises have a long lead time before prices fall - houses need to sit for months / years before people grasp the house they thought was worth £x is worth £x-20/30%

But for years we've only seen the reverse because the time it takes for interest rate cuts to increase prices is 1ms.

Yep, a possibility, and it makes sense logically - I've just long since given up on the housing market following any sense of logic.

I'll have a first hand account of a house sale and attempts to buy a house via my folks at some point in the next 3 months or so which should be interesting.

[eek]

Just now, JoeDavola said:

Yep, a possibility, and it makes sense logically - I've just long since given up on the housing market following any sense of logic.

I'll have a first hand account of a house sale and attempts to buy a house via my folks at some point in the next 3 months or so which should be interesting.

Can give you the full story now.

It falls apart when their buyer asks for a discount because of XYZ and your dad throws a fit because he isn't giving it away.

[JoeDavola]

8 minutes ago, eek said:

Can give you the full story now.

It falls apart when their buyer asks for a discount because of XYZ and your dad throws a fit because he isn't giving it away.

That is precisely what happened last year:

1. Bidding war up to £280K.

2. Winning bidder a week or two later admitted the mortgage company wouldn't lend him £280K (even at the lower IR's that were in place back then).

3. Bid dropped down to £270K i.e. the second highest bidder (Mum complaining that she'd been "robbed of £10K", no she fucking hadn't), and sat there for months as interest rates rose and rose and my parents couldn't find anything spectacular enough.

4. £270K bidder said he couldn't afford that at the higher IR's now and dropped his offer to £250K.

5. Parents were disgusted as they're not giving it away, house taken off market.

Edited February 22, 2023 by JoeDavola

[CVG]

2 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

As I've said before, ownership of a hot tub is generally in an indicator in NI that you're on some sort of state benefits, my Tesco mate has one, and before my mate in Larne moved his next door neighbour was a 'single mum' whose son had 'autism' and was coining it in on bennies and she had one.

I matain my assertion that it's those on benefits and the occasional rich boomer like you that buy hot tubs

No one wants a second hand sex pond.

[MrXxxx]

On 21/02/2023 at 11:44, Boon said:

and the numbers won't add up for a landlord to buy it.

...unless they drop the price significantly which they won't do, and hence why they became an 'Accidental landlord'!

[Democorruptcy]

8 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

It is aye, although not detached in most places.

Looking most likely that I'll move to about an hour outside of Belfast to something like this to get better value for money:

https://www.propertypal.com/18-brooklands-crescent-whitehead-carrickfergus/775751

If you had showed me the photos before telling me the price, I'd have gone more than £250k for it. I thought houses were more expensive over there. It makes those flats you post look poor value.

By comparison to over here, this 3 bed was reduced to £399k yesterday

[JoeDavola]

8 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

If you had showed me the photos before telling me the price, I'd have gone more than £250k for it. I thought houses were more expensive over there. It makes those flats you post look poor value.

By comparison to over here, this 3 bed was reduced to £399k yesterday

Bear in mind this is an hour outside of Belfast in a nice but unfashionable village.

I could show you small 3 bed semis in crap condition for £50k more because they’re in ‘middle class’ areas of Belfast.

[Chewing Grass]

Seems to be a lot of property pouring onto the market locally or ones that are already on not selling, can't work out which end it is, might be both.

[MrXxxx]

On 21/02/2023 at 17:50, onlyme said:

A healthy market doesn't price out participants or rely on unaffordable debt based on interest rates that bear no relation to either inflation, the rate of money printing or general stability of the rest of the economy.

Be interesting to compare that figure with how strict [in favour of the tenant] the housing laws are in each country...well here's Europe [with USA, China, India, & Japan at bottom]:

[https://www.eupedia.com/europe/legal_maps_of_europe.shtml#tenant_landlord]

 

....and 'Surprise, surprise' the lowest prices are found in those countries where tenants have greater protection [or stated another way, less need to buy]...and the most expensive property in found in the UK where its 'Pro Landlord'...the only exception here is Japan, but I think they are probably an outlier due to their economy in the last 30+ years

[MrXxxx]

On 21/02/2023 at 18:32, One percent said:

What?  Well i guess the establishment thought that you couldn’t possibly catch covid when viewing a house but could outside in a park. They really did take some of us for fools didn’t they.  

FTFY!

[King Penda]

I’m outraged zoopla claims my house has droped in value by 1k twigs in vases to the rescue they should add 5k on 

[MrXxxx]

On 21/02/2023 at 18:34, One percent said:

See my post above. The contempt with which we allowed these people treat us is disgusting.

FTFY

[One percent]

3 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

FTFY

Bloody hell, how often are you going to fix my post?  

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

Accidental landlord incoming.

Looks like an inheritance. On the market in August for £525k. Clearly overpriced (or it would have sold)

Reduced in September to £495k

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/125969717#/?channel=RES_BUY

Still no takers, so bunged on the rental market today for £1,500 per month.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/131906927#/?channel=RES_LET

Just cut the price and stop being such a greedy muppet. You will be a shit landlord.

Even at £450K that would only be a 4% yield BEFORE you take off expenses/tax ect...

[Wight Flight]

2 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Even at £450K that would only be a 4% yield BEFORE you take off expenses/tax ect...

Yep.

And my place is £300 less per month but 'worth' a lot more.

The market is screwed.

[MrXxxx]

11 minutes ago, One percent said:

Bloody hell, how often are you going to fix my post?  

I'm a Dosbodder...not only are we 'tight' with our money, we are 'tight' with our words as well!...well some of us are :-)))

[MrXxxx]

1 minute ago, Wight Flight said:

Yep.

And my place is £300 less per month but 'worth' a lot more.

The market is screwed.

As I posted somewhere else, although I have 'waited for this moment' for a long time perhaps buying in the next couple of years isn't the thing to do, as you are getting better value by renting, and letting a LL in essence pay you to live in their property...pity 'Security of tenure' is so bad in the UK :-(

[Wight Flight]

1 minute ago, MrXxxx said:

As I posted somewhere else, although I have 'waited for this moment' for a long time perhaps buying in the next couple of years isn't the thing to do, as you are getting better value by renting, and letting a LL in essence pay you to live in their property...pity 'Security of tenure' is so bad in the UK :-(

Historically a property is worth 10x annual rental value.

Currently they are 35x.

They will settle somewhere in between the two, but fuck knows exactly where, or when.

[One percent]

7 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Historically a property is worth 10x annual rental value.

Currently they are 35x.

They will settle somewhere in between the two, but fuck knows exactly where, or when.

Christ. That’s going to hurt when it pops.   Btw, I’ve some very nice tulip bulbs if you would like to purchase some.  

[tank]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Be interesting to compare that figure with how strict [in favour of the tenant] the housing laws are in each country...well here's Europe [with USA, China, India, & Japan at bottom]:

[https://www.eupedia.com/europe/legal_maps_of_europe.shtml#tenant_landlord]

 

....and 'Surprise, surprise' the lowest prices are found in those countries where tenants have greater protection [or stated another way, less need to buy]...and the most expensive property in found in the UK where its 'Pro Landlord'...the only exception here is Japan, but I think they are probably an outlier due to their economy in the last 30+ years

It should surprise no one when you look at Britain's history and politics, especially over the last 40 years.

The Tory Party represent wealthy landowners and rentiers, Always have and always will. They have never represented ordinary working folk. They have been in government for 30 of the last 40 odd years and are largely responsible for converting our once mixed, post war economy into a rentier hell. Most on here blame Blair and Broon but they were a symptom of the neoliberal disease aka Thatcherism. 

Property is about the only thing of value the UK has left to sell. Everything else has been flogged off or shut down by neoliberals. We now have an unproductive rentier economy fuelled by huge fiscal supports and mass immigration. All our former white colonies have gone the same way, but unlike Australia and Canada, we don't have natural resources to bail out our per capita living standards. All we've got is property and people farming hence Brexit. There are a lot more Pakistanis than Poles. 

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Bear in mind this is an hour outside of Belfast in a nice but unfashionable village.

I could show you small 3 bed semis in crap condition for £50k more because they’re in ‘middle class’ areas of Belfast.

The £400k isn't in a good spot. It's the worst sort of set up to me, close neighbours but no facilities. If I were going to pay 400k be out in the sticks, I'd at least want to know I had some peace.

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, tank said:

The Tory Party

Which one?...we have two at the moment!

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, tank said:

we don't have natural resources to bail out our per capita living standards

Are you sure this is correct?...we have North Sea oil, we have fisheries, we have hydro power, we have people capital [in a strong bespoke engineering industry], we have arts/film/music, we have finance...

...I think it's very easy to paint a 'Doom and Gloom' picture [this is usually me as well!], but although the UK is no longer the Colonial Superpower it once was [although it's people naively think it still is via politicians nationalist 'encouragement'] it has a lot to offer, it just needs to be managed properly i.e. leaders who want to manage for the benefit of the country itself rather than their self-gain/aggrandisement, and on a medium/long-term basis rather than short-term political gains....basically we need 'Lions rather than sheep'

[JoeDavola]

10 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

Historically a property is worth 10x annual rental value.

Currently they are 35x.

They will settle somewhere in between the two, but fuck knows exactly where, or when.

"When" being the biggest question - there could easily be two or three 'lost' generations unable to afford housing in many parts of the world before this mess sorts itself out, if it ever does.