Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[No One]

8 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

The problem is they 'got' £280k [or was it £270k?!], and so accepting anything else will feel like "Giving it away"...this is how property prices get into peoples psyche, and they forget something is only worth what someone is prepared to GIVE you at THAT particular TIME.

The price of any asset or commodity is whatever the marginal buyer is willing to pay.

[MrXxxx]

17 minutes ago, No One said:

The price of any asset or commodity is whatever the marginal buyer is willing to pay.

...in a limited/dropping market yes, but in a rising one there are always enough fools to pay for the tulips!

[HousePriceMania]

Nationwide index gone yoy -ve, now down 6% from peak

 

 

 

[AlfredTheLittle]

16 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

The house is going back on over the next month or so - the EA has told them to put it on not at what it was listed for a year and a bit ago when IR's were low, but to list it at the value of the highest bid that it got (that fell through) when interest rates were a fraction of what they are now, because apparently there's no evidence that prices are falling.

So it would appear the ever soaring asking prices are being driven by EA's not the people who own the houses.

I don't think agents control the price, they will always be telling people their house is worth as much as possible, and prices will stay high as long as people can afford to pay those high prices. At the moment, it looks like anything decent is still selling for high prices, I think there are a lot of people about who can afford it but the rubbish is sitting on the market unsold, which is progress compared to this time last year.

[HousePriceMania]

55 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

...in a limited/dropping market yes, but in a rising one there are always enough fools to pay for the tulips!

Which do we have ?  

[MrXxxx]

11 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Which do we have ?  

Well lets hope the one you are predicting above, as some of us on her have 'grown old/grey' waiting for the HPC! :-)

Edited March 1, 2023 by MrXxxx

[HousePriceMania]

17 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Well lets hope the one you are predicting above, as some of us on her have 'grown old/grey' waiting for the HPC! :-)

It's the budget soon.  I'd be expecting 10 houses Sunak and 5 flats Hunt to throw something at this scam.

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Nationwide index gone yoy -ve, now down 6% from peak

 

 

 

 

You see that incline/increase after 2020?

Thatll be gone end of year.

30% off. Mianly in the South.

 

 

[eek]

1 hour ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

I don't think agents control the price, they will always be telling people their house is worth as much as possible, and prices will stay high as long as people can afford to pay those high prices. At the moment, it looks like anything decent is still selling for high prices, I think there are a lot of people about who can afford it but the rubbish is sitting on the market unsold, which is progress compared to this time last year.

First thing for an agent is to ensure the property is sat on his books and not that of a competing agent - that may mean set stupidly high price, it may mean put it on at this price to get sold quickly (the agent needs to read the seller and pick the appropriate option).

Then it's a matter of trying to get the seller to accept whatever price is offered - but thats irrelevant until step 1 is reached.

Edited March 1, 2023 by eek

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

It's the budget soon.  I'd be expecting 10 houses Sunak and 5 flats Hunt to throw something at this scam.

I think that is part of the "we need tax cuts" push in parts of the politics-media-complex, to force Hunt to declare that there is no money for that and hence tie his hands on house price props. A crash seems to be accepted as necessary by parts of the estabishment, and is actively being pushed by some mainstream media too IMO.

 

[HousePriceMania]

53 minutes ago, spygirl said:

 

You see that incline/increase after 2020?

Thatll be gone end of year.

30% off. Mianly in the South.

 

 

It's a hell of a drop, but it's going to keep going down.

 

[HousePriceMania]

34 minutes ago, eek said:

First thing for an agent is to ensure the property is sat on his books and not that of a competing agent - that may mean set stupidly high price, it may mean put it on at this price to get sold quickly (the agent needs to read the seller and pick the appropriate option).

Then it's a matter of trying to get the seller to accept whatever price is offered - but thats irrelevant until step 1 is reached.

This is why insane low IRs, QE funded sub-prime debt and incentivising people to buy/speculate on housing is a bad thing

They made it easy for idiots to push prices to untenable levels. 

[HousePriceMania]

Persimmon plc

1,321.50 GBX−131.00 (9.02%)today

 

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-11806785/Persimmon-warns-profits-slashes-dividend-75.html

Edited March 1, 2023 by HousePriceMania

[Stuey]

It's a great time to buy 

Just before the spring (starts today) bounce. 

[JoeDavola]

2 hours ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

I don't think agents control the price, they will always be telling people their house is worth as much as possible, and prices will stay high as long as people can afford to pay those high prices. At the moment, it looks like anything decent is still selling for high prices, I think there are a lot of people about who can afford it but the rubbish is sitting on the market unsold, which is progress compared to this time last year.

Yes I suspect the lack of choice and increasingly apalling state of the housing market in the UK may keep prices high albeit with an ever-shrinking pool of buyers.

The last two times my folk sold this house it was to buyers from outside of NI, and in all cases except one to buyers for whom English was not their first language. That's quite telling IMO.

[MrXxxx]

Several indicators of 'good' news?..well for prospective buyers anyway!

 

[Bobthebuilder]

41 minutes ago, Stuey said:

It's a great time to buy 

Just before the spring (starts today) bounce. 

Beware the Ides of March.

[HousePriceMania]

[Covid19 and life to go]

22 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Interesting to see how things are working from the inside.

"Lets take the top offer you had last year that wasn't even a valid offer and use that as the starting price now" seems insane, but I have learned the housing market follows no logic and heck they could end up selling it for even more again this year.

Probably factoring in the sector's that have had wage rises.... While ignoring wider inflation.

[spygirl]

On 04/01/2023 at 10:39, spygirl said:

https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/UK-mortgage-approvals-hit-lowest-since-mid-2020-Bank-of-England--42654760/

 

LONDON, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Mortgage approvals by lenders in Britain fell in November to the lowest level since June 2020, Bank of England data showed on Wednesday.

Lenders approved 46,075 mortgages in November, down from 57,875 in October, the BoE said. A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to approvals of 55,000. (Reporting by Andy Bruce, editing by David Milliken)

 

And thats Nov 22 figures.

 

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/uk-mortgage-approvals-slump-for-fifth-straight-month-as-higher-rates-hit-buyers-114646339.html

Around 39,600 mortgages were approved for house purchase in January, down from 40,500 in December, marking the lowest monthly total since May 2020. January data also marked the fifth consecutive monthly drop in approvals.

Read more: Inflation data will dictate Bank of England's next interest rate call, says Andrew Bailey

Excluding the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, January’s figure was the lowest level of approvals since the 2009 financial crisis housing crash.

[JoeDavola]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

To be pedantic of course mortage rates are irrelevant for those who actually own their homes.

But I appreciate that "homeowners" fits on the drawing whereas "folk with several decades of already crippling mortgage debt ahead of them" doesn't

Edited March 1, 2023 by JoeDavola

[spygirl]

Mortgage demand plummets to a 28-year low as average interest rates hit 6.71% - just as spring home buying season is supposed to be heating up

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11807843/Mortgage-demand-plummets-28-year-low-average-rates-hit-6-71.html

Err comapred to today, and to be heosnt, sicen 2008,  mortgage approvals/sales were realively healthy in 1995.

 

 

 

[Ash4781b]

9 hours ago, spygirl said:

 

You see that incline/increase after 2020?

Thatll be gone end of year.

30% off. Mianly in the South.

 

 

Blimey with inflation at 10% these are massive falls already. Still I see bricks and raw materials are rising in price. But I guess so are mortgages, eggs, well most things.

Looks like the gov’ will have to intervene else those house builders will revert to hibernation mode. Heard an advert on radio about buying a new build said prices go up. Builders will be lobbying hard. They need to shift what they got and re-group.

[onlyme]

They missed a word out, failed spring buying season. 

Not going to happen, they are running out of ways to positively spin last year's stats by slicing and icing measurement periods / changes and regardless affordability just isn't there.

 

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

Mortgage demand plummets to a 28-year low as average interest rates hit 6.71% - just as spring home buying season is supposed to be heating up

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11807843/Mortgage-demand-plummets-28-year-low-average-rates-hit-6-71.html

Err comapred to today, and to be heosnt, sicen 2008,  mortgage approvals/sales were realively healthy in 1995.

 

 

 

 

[AlfredTheLittle]

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

Mortgage demand plummets to a 28-year low as average interest rates hit 6.71% - just as spring home buying season is supposed to be heating up

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11807843/Mortgage-demand-plummets-28-year-low-average-rates-hit-6-71.html

Err comapred to today, and to be heosnt, sicen 2008,  mortgage approvals/sales were realively healthy in 1995.

 

 

 

That's a weird article, it's in a UK paper and presented as if it's about the UK, but if you read it, it's a US article about the US. Looks like the DM don't even bother reading their own articles anymore, probably written by ChatGPT