Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[onlyme]

10 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Decent enough wee bungalow came on sale the other day, nice but nothing specacular, but it's not really the bungalow that's important:

https://www.propertynews.com/property-for-sale/5-brooklands-crescent-whitehead-bt38-9sw/property/BED807234/

what's really eye opening is the cost of a mortgage on an only slightly above average house at these higher rates...the rates they're using on the website's calculator are 6.25% - they're defaulting the repayment to 30 years but fuck that I put it down to 25 cause I'm not playing that game whre this generation suddenly need 30 years of debt instead of 25...

The costs as you can see below are £1400 a month. Add the £100 a month council tax to that (I know that's low compared to the rest of the UK), then add the average yearly maintenance and heating costs....fuck me it's going to take basically all of one decent wage just to pay for the roof over your head.

 

There's the argument that lower ownership in the 20/30's age group provides significant support / demand to prop the housing market as they are able to buy in larger numbers in a falling market. there's a problem though.  FTB's used to be 25 or , now more like 35. At that age they are around 10 years from peak earnings and a thirty year mortgage (their first one on their entry level property) takes them right up to retirement age. 2nd, 3rd, purchases are gong to have to be bought on  reducing terms - how is that going to work, especially when in a falling/static market they are not getting any collateral gains and they are also spending more time and money compressed into having children in that later age profile. 

No matter which way you look at it the market is a ton of bricks with dodgy foundations.

[JoeDavola]

5 minutes ago, onlyme said:

There's the argument that lower ownership in the 20/30's age group provides significant support / demand to prop the housing market as they are able to buy in larger numbers in a falling market. there's a problem though.  FTB's used to be 25 or , now more like 35. At that age they are around 10 years from peak earnings and a thirty year mortgage (their first one on their entry level property) takes them right up to retirement age. 2nd, 3rd, purchases are gong to have to be bought on  reducing terms - how is that going to work, especially when in a falling/static market they are not getting any collateral gains and they are also spending more time and money compressed into having children in that later age profile. 

No matter which way you look at it the market is a ton of bricks with dodgy foundations.

It just makes less and less sense in the long term - only thing that might save it is stagnant prices against huge wage inflation but we'll see about that - the pattern seems to be ever-shrinking wages related to everything else.

There was also a post on reddit that I meant to post here about boomers in the USA suddenly needing to sell their houses when they get old to fund medical care and then eventually care in old people's homes, now that might not be the case in the UK as much (though with a collapsing NHS it might) - but I think the point is that in the long run all that housing equity might flow into other pockets rather than staying in the housing market via being handed down to the next generation to spend on housing.

[MrXxxx]

12 hours ago, nirvana said:

maybe I should build bridges.

Where he would mysteriously disappear into the foundations al la Mafioso?

[nirvana]

Just now, MrXxxx said:

Where he would mysteriously disappear into the foundations al la Mafioso?

lol, no mate, I'm not really a fighter.....just a bit of a lost soul with a big gob sometimes and a penchant for 'fighting the system'.....but that appears to be a lost cause too eh???

let's relax and talk to buddha instead eh??.......ommmmmmmm nommmmmmm ommmmmmm

[Stuey]

2 hours ago, onlyme said:

FTB's used to be 25 or , now more like 35. At that age they are around 10 years from peak earnings and a thirty year mortgage (their first one on their entry level property) takes them right up to retirement age. 

 

[AlfredTheLittle]

4 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Decent enough wee bungalow came on sale the other day, nice but nothing specacular, but it's not really the bungalow that's important:

https://www.propertynews.com/property-for-sale/5-brooklands-crescent-whitehead-bt38-9sw/property/BED807234/

what's really eye opening is the cost of a mortgage on an only slightly above average house at these higher rates...the rates they're using on the website's calculator are 6.25% - they're defaulting the repayment to 30 years but fuck that I put it down to 25 cause I'm not playing that game whre this generation suddenly need 30 years of debt instead of 25...

The costs as you can see below are £1400 a month. Add the £100 a month council tax to that (I know that's low compared to the rest of the UK), then add the average yearly maintenance and heating costs....fuck me it's going to take basically all of one decent wage just to pay for the roof over your head.

EDIT: And if you were commuting to Belfast where the jobs are, you'd have to add another £100 a month for the train ticket.

Is that so out of reach though? I would think it must be very common for a couple to bring in at least £60k between them (say £40k full-time dad, plus £20k part-time mum). That's over £4k each month, after tax. And that's before you add in child benefit etc. So this mortgage still leaves £2.5k per month to cover bills and food, which would be no problem at all.

Based on what I'm seeing there doesn't seem to be much of a house price fall at all, and I'm starting to think house prices might only drop by inflation. £300k seems to be the floor for anything half decent across the whole south of England, at least.

[belfastchild]

6 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Decent enough wee bungalow came on sale the other day, nice but nothing specacular, but it's not really the bungalow that's important:

 

Quarter of a million quid (almost) to live in a shrine to Liberace (ok slight exaggeration but fuck me, you just have an idea shes going to be a pain in the hole to deal with'.
Reminds me of the one I went to see where she went round pointing out all the shrubs that had sentimental value and she was taking with her and that I could negotiate a price for the carpets, dado rails and picture rails.

How about, no?

Loads of pictures of kids and a play kitchen in the living room but no kids rooms so grandparents, which to be fair as you pointed out in another thread that could be mid 30s up in this country.
Still looks more like boomers selling up.

[JoeDavola]

3 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Quarter of a million quid (almost) to live in a shrine to Liberace (ok slight exaggeration but fuck me, you just have an idea shes going to be a pain in the hole to deal with'.

Agree the living room needs redecorating, but if you think that's overpriced, fucking brace yourself for this:

https://www.propertypal.com/41-ravenhill-gardens-belfast/808486

Small 2 bed terrace in a crumbling street near quarter a mill because you can walk to the fucking Ormeau park.

Mental.

Edited March 3, 2023 by JoeDavola

[belfastchild]

3 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Agree the living room needs redecorating, but if you think that's overpriced, fucking brace yourself for this:

https://www.propertypal.com/41-ravenhill-gardens-belfast/808486

Small 2 bed terrace in a crumbling street near quarter a mill because you can walk to the fucking Ormeau park.

Mental.

You can say you live near Ardenlee. Just dont mention the free ps on the corner. Sunday must be a right laugh there.

[JoeDavola]

2 hours ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Is that so out of reach though? I would think it must be very common for a couple to bring in at least £60k between them (say £40k full-time dad, plus £20k part-time mum). That's over £4k each month, after tax. And that's before you add in child benefit etc. So this mortgage still leaves £2.5k per month to cover bills and food, which would be no problem at all.

I'd need a realistic assessment of what it costs on top of the mortgage to look after the kids, pay for creche fees etc, run one or two cars (you'd need two cars really where that's located) etc...none of which I know owt about. Still sounds tight to me and if Mum loses the part time job it sounds like the family is screwed, but I guess that's the norm these days.

Surely a £40K + £20K household don't receive any meaningful child benefit?

[JoeDavola]

1 minute ago, belfastchild said:

You can say you live near Ardenlee. Just dont mention the free ps on the corner. Sunday must be a right laugh there.

A relative used to live across the street in what I think are council houses. Before the area got all posh and you had to spunk a quarter mill to live there.

[JoeDavola]

3 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

You can say you live near Ardenlee.

For the same money you can live ON Ardenlee; this has been on for months:

https://www.propertypal.com/162-ardenlee-avenue-belfast/777117

[belfastchild]

2 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

For the same money you can live ON Ardenlee; this has been on for months:

https://www.propertypal.com/162-ardenlee-avenue-belfast/777117

Fuck me, didnt get past the stone cladding photo.

[JoeDavola]

1 minute ago, belfastchild said:

Fuck me, didnt get past the stone cladding photo.

OK a slight hint of Jack and Vera's house from Corrie but the inside is OK!

[belfastchild]

Just now, JoeDavola said:

OK a slight hint of Jack and Vera's house from Corrie but the inside is OK!

Just also noticed the 'let by' sign on the house next door.

Imagine living next door to renters. Fuck me.

[JoeDavola]

1 minute ago, belfastchild said:

Just also noticed the 'let by' sign on the house next door.

Imagine living next door to renters. Fuck me.

Well spotted hawkeye, I think that's two doors down though?

Even so everyhwere has renters these days.

My brother lives next door to renters and he's never had much trou.....actually no they've been shit

[belfastchild]

Just now, JoeDavola said:

Well spotted hawkeye, I think that's two doors down though?

Even so everyhwere has renters these days.

My brother lives next door to renters and he's never had much trou.....actually no they've been shit

Phew, theres a one house buffer! You'd never have to make eye contact.
Still, youve seen it now.

[Axeman123]

28 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

I could negotiate a price for the carpets, dado rails and picture rails.

err...aren't those two things usually nailed to the wall?

People wanting paid for non-made-to-measure curtains sort of have a sort of a point, not really part of the property and could well be reused.

People wanting paid for fitted carpets should have their bluff called everytime, unless the sum is nominal. What are they really going to do with it - pay a fitter to cut it down and install it in smaller rooms at the next place?

Anything can be agreed at a price, but taking dado rails is up there with wanting to take the baluster rail and internal doors.

[Democorruptcy]

7 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Decent enough wee bungalow came on sale the other day, nice but nothing specacular, but it's not really the bungalow that's important:

https://www.propertynews.com/property-for-sale/5-brooklands-crescent-whitehead-bt38-9sw/property/BED807234/

I always think the ones you post don't look bad compared to here. I suppose you are selective and don't post the complete crap.

3 bed 'in need of modernisation' on a busy main road 350k

3 bed 'requiring updating' but snapped up! 290k

Well what can you say about this? 330k

 

[AlfredTheLittle]

23 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

I'd need a realistic assessment of what it costs on top of the mortgage to look after the kids, pay for creche fees etc, run one or two cars (you'd need two cars really where that's located) etc...none of which I know owt about. Still sounds tight to me and if Mum loses the part time job it sounds like the family is screwed, but I guess that's the norm these days.

Surely a £40K + £20K household don't receive any meaningful child benefit?

They'd get full  child benefit but I don't think they'd get child tax credits. Grandparents help look after the children, or if not childcare is only for a few years anyway and not all that expensive as most people won't put their children in full-time 40 hours a week and the government gives you 15 hours - it's just something you hear a lot about because women moan about it.

Maybe our thought process here of "quarter of a million for that shithole" is actually wrong - other people think of it as "only £1,500 per month and we'll still have £2,500 left". Even with interest rates higher I think there's still room for an average working couple to buy for £300k, and wages going up will support house prices. Minimum wage is £21,680 from April (40 hours pw, £10.42 per hour)

[JoeDavola]

6 minutes ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

They'd get full  child benefit but I don't think they'd get child tax credits. Grandparents help look after the children, or if not childcare is only for a few years anyway and not all that expensive as most people won't put their children in full-time 40 hours a week and the government gives you 15 hours - it's just something you hear a lot about because women moan about it.

Maybe our thought process here of "quarter of a million for that shithole" is actually wrong - other people think of it as "only £1,500 per month and we'll still have £2,500 left". Even with interest rates higher I think there's still room for an average working couple to buy for £300k, and wages going up will support house prices. Minimum wage is £21,680 from April (40 hours pw, £10.42 per hour)

Yes minimum wage going up is definately a factor.

Oh and I don't think that bungalow is a shithole I think it's quite nice, it's in a cheaper area of NI if it was in a posh area you'd slap another £100K onto it easily.

Child benefit for first child is over £1100 a year which is more than I was expecting. About £1900 a year for two kids.

Edited March 3, 2023 by JoeDavola

[belfastchild]

11 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

err...aren't those two things usually nailed to the wall?

People wanting paid for non-made-to-measure curtains sort of have a sort of a point, not really part of the property and could well be reused.

People wanting paid for fitted carpets should have their bluff called everytime, unless the sum is nominal. What are they really going to do with it - pay a fitter to cut it down and install it in smaller rooms at the next place?

Anything can be agreed at a price, but taking dado rails is up there with wanting to take the baluster rail and internal doors.

Yep. Mate bought a house and went round the night before with a bottle of wine to wish them luck. They looked really embarrassed. When he moved in the curtain poles, wall fixings and some of the internal door locks and light fittings were sitting in a pile in the kitchen.

My mum and dad moved into a house where all the wee plastic/metal screw things on the light fittings to hold your lightshades on had been taken - like what the fuck?

[belfastchild]

5 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Yes minimum wage going up is definately a factor.

Oh and I don't think that bungalow is a shithole I think it's quite nice, it's in a cheaper area of NI if it was in a posh area you'd slap another £100K onto it easily.

Seriously Joe, I know places where you will get the same house for 70-80k less.

Its boomer ex-screw, ex-peeler, ex-civil service central which means the prices are ridiculous for what you get.
Heres a detached place with a fair bit of land (about an acre) and outbuildings out in the country for less - ok needs decoration etc but the price difference would more than cover it.
https://www.propertypal.com/21-magherafelt-road-tobermore-magherafelt/807735

Heres a quarter mil house https://www.propertypal.com/82-hillhead-road-toomebridge/757111

120k needs a kitchen and redecorating, cash buyer only - https://www.propertypal.com/66-gallagh-road-toomebridge/788151

Heres one not too far from me ;-) YOu could call in for a decent coffee ;-) https://www.propertypal.com/102-tudor-park-newtownabbey/795382

[JoeDavola]

24 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I always think the ones you post don't look bad compared to here. I suppose you are selective and don't post the complete crap.

3 bed 'in need of modernisation' on a busy main road 350k

3 bed 'requiring updating' but snapped up! 290k

Well what can you say about this? 330k

NI is cheaper than the south of England.

I think prices have been so high for so long NI seems cheap to some.

[JoeDavola]

3 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Seriously Joe, I know places where you will get the same house for 70-80k less.

Its boomer ex-screw, ex-peeler, ex-civil service central which means the prices are ridiculous for what you get.
Heres a detached place with a fair bit of land (about an acre) and outbuildings out in the country for less - ok needs decoration etc but the price difference would more than cover it.
https://www.propertypal.com/21-magherafelt-road-tobermore-magherafelt/807735

Heres a quarter mil house https://www.propertypal.com/82-hillhead-road-toomebridge/757111

120k needs a kitchen and redecorating, cash buyer only - https://www.propertypal.com/66-gallagh-road-toomebridge/788151

Heres one not too far from me ;-) YOu could call in for a decent coffee ;-) https://www.propertypal.com/102-tudor-park-newtownabbey/795382

The first few are in the areshole of nowehre by my standards, way the other side of Lough Neagh looking at the map on that £120K one, not commutable to Belfast at all I'd have thought even a couple of times a week if I could drive.

Acually I just put that into google maps and it seems a smilar distance away than whitehead but just in a completely different direction. But its ages away from Belfast and no mates that live near there so there'd be no point, would be basically an hour away from anybody that I know.

Newtonabbey is a possibility being on the Metro bus route. My apologies in advance if I do move there and property prices near you collapse as a result