Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[HousePriceMania]

3 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

I know a bloke in Ohio spent less than that on a 6000 square foot mansion earlier in the year.

How is the UK housing market not a meme at the moment? How is it not the laughing stock of the world?

Because the currency is f**ked ?

[Wight Flight]

19 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

There could easily be 5 years of very low transaction levels with what little activity does happen in the market fuelled by the Bank of Boomer and said boomers trying to swap houses with each other and not letting them go "for less than they're worth".

Is there a situation when everyone that bought in the last few years can't do the second step?

Would they be able to get the mortgage now that they got then? And with falling prices, will they be able to have the LTV required?

The market might literally be frozen at the second step.

[JoeDavola]

6 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Is there a situation when everyone that bought in the last few years can't do the second step?

I know plenty of folk who bought 10 years ago when prices were 40% cheaper in NI and they still can't do the second step. Or if they can, they're not taking out an extra £100K+ of mortgage debt at age 40 just to get an extra bedroom or a few extra square meters of space, cause that's insane.

In fact I only know one person who did a 'second step' and he's earning over double the average salary for NI, so very much an outlier and even he is worried about the IR rises and as assuming they'll come back down again in 2 years when he needs to remortage.

There is no housing ladder any more in most cases. And certainly for those who bought in the last 3 years with a hefty mortgage there will be no ladder.

In a high IR, high asking price environment, there absolutely is no ladder for most people any more unless they inherit high 5 or 6 figures.

Edited March 7, 2023 by JoeDavola

[Stuey]

Did anyone else buy the plateau?

Energy prices cratering now which is going to make everyone feel loaded again. 

[Noallegiance]

[moneyscam]

Compared to Europe, if you're looking to get out of Dodge then Italy, Spain and Cyprus offer value with better weather and similar living standards.

 

 

 

Edited March 7, 2023 by moneyscam

[Castlevania]

8 minutes ago, moneyscam said:

Compared to Europe, if you're looking to get out of Dodge then Italy, Spain and Cyprus offer value with better weather and similar living standards.

 

 

 

Bottom table looks wrong. €21k per square metre would have the average two bed flat in the U.K. at €1m

[Long time lurking]

23 minutes ago, Stuey said:

 

Energy prices cratering now which is going to make everyone feel loaded again. 

Not for long ,23% fuel duty increases is still on the table ,the EU/UK/USA have just sanctioned themselves regarding many hydrocarbon related productids 

The government are desperate for the extra VAT /fule taxes 

[moneyscam]

Just now, Castlevania said:

Bottom table looks wrong. €21k per square metre would have the average two bed flat in the U.K. at €1m

I agree, it must be a mistake. There must be an accurate stat somewhere given all properties sold have to have an EPC with sq ft/m on it. 

[moneyscam]

Found this based on EPC data, shows how south east would distort an average price for England and Wales.

https://houseprices.anna.ps/

Edited March 7, 2023 by moneyscam

[No One]

On 04/03/2023 at 13:15, Ash4781b said:

Just looking at my local Rightmove search area and it’s utter carnage, every page with multiple properties with notes referencing reductions. I thought the agents managed that so couldn’t flag as reduced.

There is a clear 2023 trend where volume is slowly going upwards, Moving Home with Charlie has also identified that we are in a stage where sellers are in the deluded stage. False hope of props and support to boost prices again.

On 04/03/2023 at 14:47, Bilbo said:

The agents like a reduction, however small, as it puts the property to the top of the list with the newly listed option.

There is definitely a trend where discounts are seen as positive by SA as they can get more interest from FTBs looking for a bargain.

On 04/03/2023 at 16:17, Chewing Grass said:

Now 239-223-228-231-226-226-224 -221-246-249-250-253-241-261-268 over the last 205 days.

Number of listed properties is creeping up, no real rush to market, appears to be the more expensive places not shifting.

 

[Boon]

Do Halifax/Nationwide release figures on LTV of mortgages? Or accepted vs declines?

What I am seeing is an extremely slow stagnation of listings upward. So for London listings on the 1st December were 50164, that went down over Christmas, but has not come back yet, yesterday was 49067

On a very low number of mortgages it is entirely possible that things could still go up. Because some of the properties which would actually produce a decrease in the statistic aren't getting sold. Either falling through via valuation or owners not wanting to accept the current market price.

Doesn't seem to be much change in the overall trend; houses that are reasonable and reasonably priced go quickly. But flats do not.

Also by and large the market doesn't really seem in desperation phase.

Of course the news is full of landlords declaring they are selling up but if they were you would think this would be reflected in the sales listings numbers. So I think it's a bit of a bluff, the threat to sell is a bit of a bluff. As we seen in a few other listings, the finances don't work for another landlord to buy it as a investment. Regular buyers aren't gonna be interested without vacant possession. And getting vacant possession might mean a really long void, if it is a flat.

[HousePriceMania]

This is a lot...

 

 

[Herby]

The guardian are very bearish

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/05/house-prices-freefall-property-ownership-rent-britain?CMP=share_btn_tw

House prices are crumbling – and so is Britain’s faith in property ownership

John Harris

[HousePriceMania]

53 minutes ago, Herby said:

The guardian are very bearish

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/05/house-prices-freefall-property-ownership-rent-britain?CMP=share_btn_tw

House prices are crumbling – and so is Britain’s faith in property ownership

John Harris

Wasn't that...House prices are crumbling – and so is Britain’s faith in property ownership...So Keir 4 house Starmer will save us and push up prices ?

 

[Frank Hovis]

54 minutes ago, Herby said:

The guardian are very bearish

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/05/house-prices-freefall-property-ownership-rent-britain?CMP=share_btn_tw

House prices are crumbling – and so is Britain’s faith in property ownership

John Harris

 

Does that make the print edition though?

There was a similar piece in the Telegraph or Independent last year which was great but turned out to be an online only opinion post which very few would read.

That one is also an opinion post so I suspect it might be the same.

An opinion piece on The Guardian website rather than "The Guardian".

I would be happy, nay delighted, to be corrected.

[haroldshand]

7 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

100% agree.

I think after years of outright market rigging people are just sick of this madness and want reality to strike.

It's worth remembering that the criminals in power introduced the stamp duty cut and that might have an effect on the data too.

The price of new stuff being listed on right move is eye watering, the agents dont look like they are throwing in the towel for sure, maybe they expect the budget to bail them out again, maybe they'll be rught.

 

What I forget to mention and why I think TOS got it so badly wrong is that they looked at the world in a commonsense way where it was full of rainbows, flowers and butterflies and where people did the right thing for the right reason.

I's like most of us want to live in good communities with good honest kind people who look out for each other and I am willing to bet 90% of people I come across or are even here want the same, yet we all know through years of experience that is no mean feat when a small minority can totally fuck it up.

TOS looked at the property market  with good maths and economics and totally expelled the damage politics can and will do while in the pockets of bankers and MSM

[spunko]

59 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Does that make the print edition though?

There was a similar piece in the Telegraph or Independent last year which was great but turned out to be an online only opinion post which very few would read.

That one is also an opinion post so I suspect it might be the same.

An opinion piece on The Guardian website rather than "The Guardian".

I would be happy, nay delighted, to be corrected.

Has there ever been a study into the percentages of Britons that think house prices only ever go up? The MSM like to tell us that everyone believes it except the journalist of course but I'm not sure. 

Same with the "high house prices = good" idea.  I don't think even half of people in the UK buy either of these ideas personally. 

The issue is that these viewpoints are representative of people who read newspapers. 

[Frank Hovis]

2 minutes ago, spunko said:

Has there ever been a study into the percentages of Britons that think house prices only ever go up? The MSM like to tell us that everyone believes it except the journalist of course but I'm not sure. 

Same with the "high house prices = good" idea.  I don't think even half of people in the UK buy either of these ideas personally. 

The issue is that these viewpoints are representative of people who read newspapers. 

 

I would think that the percentage thinking both of those things was very to incredibly high amongst home owners with big mortgages and fairly high amongst home owners with mortgages paid off.

I doubt that they themselves would be able to tell you how much was genuine belief and how much wishful thinking.

If I had just bought a house with a crippling mortgage then I would have justified it to myself by saying that house prices only ever go up and high house prices are a good thing so the government will do its utmost to keep them high.

I would be in the same position if I bought a load of gold with debt finance - convincing myself that gold only ever goes up, any fall in value is market manipulation by central banks - because to admit otherwise would be to admit to myself that I have just made the greatest gamble of my life and it might well fail.

As would house prices crashing make the hypothetical mortgagee fail.

Oh and double that for anyone with a BTL; they will have a very strong faith in the gravity defying properties of UK house prices and that this is a very good thing.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Wasn't that...House prices are crumbling – and so is Britain’s faith in property ownership...So Keir 4 house Starmer will save us and push up prices ?

 

It’s seven, with a value ( haha) of £10million. Man of the peeps don’t cha know.

[nirvana]

8 hours ago, Stuey said:

Did anyone else buy the plateau?

Energy prices cratering now which is going to make everyone feel loaded again. 

DXY is going apeshit bruv......the day of judgement is a comin

[spygirl]

Two-year Treasury yield tops 5% for the first time since 2007

Kate Duguid in New York

The two-year Treasury yield, which moves with interest rate expectations, topped 5 per cent for the first time since 2007.

The yield reached a peak of 5.01 per cent - up 0.13 percentage points on the day - following remarks on Tuesday by Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell, who indicated that the US central bank may be prepared to accelerate the pace of interest rate increases in response to hotter-than-expected economic data.

At the start of the year, investors were betting the Fed’s key interest rate would peak in the second quarter just below 5 per cent, and be cut at least twice by year-end. Investors now expect a peak of 5.6 per cent in September, with some chance of a single cut priced in by December.

If you've a mortgage you need to be stress testing for 10% svr.

If you've an io btl then 15%

[spygirl]

7 hours ago, Boon said:

Do Halifax/Nationwide release figures on LTV of mortgages? Or accepted vs declines?

What I am seeing is an extremely slow stagnation of listings upward. So for London listings on the 1st December were 50164, that went down over Christmas, but has not come back yet, yesterday was 49067

On a very low number of mortgages it is entirely possible that things could still go up. Because some of the properties which would actually produce a decrease in the statistic aren't getting sold. Either falling through via valuation or owners not wanting to accept the current market price.

Doesn't seem to be much change in the overall trend; houses that are reasonable and reasonably priced go quickly. But flats do not.

Also by and large the market doesn't really seem in desperation phase.

Of course the news is full of landlords declaring they are selling up but if they were you would think this would be reflected in the sales listings numbers. So I think it's a bit of a bluff, the threat to sell is a bit of a bluff. As we seen in a few other listings, the finances don't work for another landlord to buy it as a investment. Regular buyers aren't gonna be interested without vacant possession. And getting vacant possession might mean a really long void, if it is a flat.

No.

Probate is going to start driving local markets.

[Democorruptcy]

Halifax up but the BBC are strangely quiet about it? All I could find was a non headline mention in here. The governbankment proganda mouthpiece aren't keeping quiet about it because it might look like there was no excuse for a new housing market prop in the March 15th budget?

[Henry Waddle]

4 hours ago, Herby said:

The guardian are very bearish

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/05/house-prices-freefall-property-ownership-rent-britain?CMP=share_btn_tw

House prices are crumbling – and so is Britain’s faith in property ownership

John Harris

As per usual, the Guardian omits the impact of mass immigration in that article.