Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[Noallegiance]

25 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

That'll be the avocado toast.

I'm surprised at those prices that many of the young aren't just leaving that part of the country as they've no hope?

Once the London lay offs start properly it will be carnage. We're a big commuter town.

[Rare Bear]

28 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

That'll be the avocado toast.

I'm surprised at those prices that many of the young aren't just leaving that part of the country as they've no hope?

There was a posting on a local newsgroup this morning. Guy needs to re-home his cat. He's leaving the country as he can't afford to live here any more.

[Axeman123]

Some good charts in the twitter thread:

All seems very persuasive of a big move south coming for prices.

[Noallegiance]

27 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Some good charts in the twitter thread:

All seems very persuasive of a big move south coming for prices.

Discussed here this morning

 

[JoeDavola]

1 hour ago, Rare Bear said:

There was a posting on a local newsgroup this morning. Guy needs to re-home his cat. He's leaving the country as he can't afford to live here any more.

Yeah there must be a lot of the country where the average single person is just about getting by housing themselves on a single wage, or perhaps forced to rent in an HMO.

And if that's gonna be your life, you can see why it would be tempting to go and be poor somewhere that's at least a bit sunnier.

[dnb24]

On 19/02/2023 at 17:45, dnb24 said:

Been a quiet couple of weeks but in the last week there’s been a real increase- now sitting at 2200 listings.

Since sept 2022- 1600 listings- now 2200.

2300 hit

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Some good charts in the twitter thread:

All seems very persuasive of a big move south coming for prices.

29,000 mortgage approvals for Jan is beyond dire.Interesting Charlie points out the 39,000 was seasonally adjusted.I've had a quick google and the transactions data is really poor but seasonally adjusted up to a repsectable level.Key thing is whether this line holds.I suspect it wont

from 23/2/23

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/monthly-property-transactions-completed-in-the-uk-with-value-40000-or-above/uk-monthly-property-transactions-commentary

 

from the alex groundwater twitter post

I feel duty bound to psot some of these charts for psoterity as they're very informative

Edited March 6, 2023 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

https://propertyindustryeye.com/third-of-landlords-could-be-forced-to-sell-up-after-failing-their-lenders-affordability-test-to-remortgage/

One in three buy-to-let landlords are struggling to remortgage after failing their lender’s affordability test, warns Mortgages for Business.

Fresh research by the buy-to-let specialist, carried out on behalf of the Daily Mail, found that some investors are being forced to accept variable rates as high as 9.5% as a result of failing affordability tests for remortgages. Others are selling up because they can no longer afford their loans.

Gavin Richardson, MD of Mortgages for Business, said: “It’s a critical situation for small landlords at the moment. They are worried about Section 21 reform and EPC regulations and tax.  On top of that, they’re having to worry about higher mortgage rates.  They’re right to be worried.

“We’re seeing landlords coming off rates of 3.5% and being unable to remortgage because, according to the lender’s stress test, their loan is no longer affordable. Unable to secure a new deal and with nowhere else to go their loans are reverting to the lenders standard variable rate, which average about 7.5%.

 

[Guest]

43 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

https://propertyindustryeye.com/third-of-landlords-could-be-forced-to-sell-up-after-failing-their-lenders-affordability-test-to-remortgage/

 

Quote

“The money markets are proving tricky for lenders to navigate and many are sticking with ‘computer says no’. Having a good broker has never been important,” he added.

More like "price signals say no" but sure, blame the computers.

[AWW]

This sort of thing puzzles me. I'm seeing it quite a lot round my way. No interest at £1,475,000, but only cut the price by £25k. It's going to have absolutely no effect. Is it the agents who are deluded, or the sellers? Do we have any agents on here?

[AWW]

...and this one. At some point surely they realise that they are chasing the market down and will need to get ahead of it in order to sell?

 

If anyone's interested, I'm waiting for the £1.25m places to hit £750k.

[VeryMeanReversion]

14 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

“We’re seeing landlords coming off rates of 3.5% and being unable to remortgage because, according to the lender’s stress test, their loan is no longer affordable

 

Therefore, it was only affordable if record low interest rates continued for the lifetime of the mortgage.

Yet these BTL mortgages were granted on that basis. Short term thinking that went on too long.

Stupid regulators, banks being banks, stupid customers.

The customers will eventually realise that the losses end up with them. Maybe their best hope is rent paid in a new CBDC whilst their debts stay in the old worthless currency (£).

Of course, no regulator will lose their job.

Meanwhile, the rest of us also get to pay via higher house prices and devalued currency. The banks get the interest on money created from nothing.

The biggest winners are those BTL'rs that got out in time and never declared the rental income or capital gains.

Edited March 7, 2023 by VeryMeanReversion

[Plan-b]

6 hours ago, AWW said:

...and this one. At some point surely they realise that they are chasing the market down and will need to get ahead of it in order to sell?

Here's my favourite, going nowhere for nearly 2 years.

'Well were not going to give it away are we' 

 

[spygirl]

On 05/03/2023 at 21:12, sancho panza said:

Looks like  a marekt dropping from the top down

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/surrey-named-house-price-discount-160949461.html

Surrey Heath has been named the house price discount capital of Britain, with three out of five sales done at a cut the price to their initial listing.

The Home Counties borough, which covers towns such as Camberley, Frimley and Bagshot, had almost double the national average of discounted property sales last month.

59pc of homes sold in the Surrey commuter belt district in February had a price change before a sale was agreed, according to TwentyCi, a data company.

 

The national average last month stood at 32pc.

Julian de la Poer Beresford, of Hamptons estate agents in Sunningdale, said discounts in Surrey Heath average between 5pc and 8pc.

Sellers in London and the South East are having to make the biggest adjustments. Across the South East, more than 5,000 properties were sold at a discount in February, accounting for 37pc of all sales in the region.

A year earlier only 26pc of sales in the South East faced a discount.

 

also Ozzies facing 10th straight rate rise

Surrey Heath ..

These areas, between 10mile and ~60 mile circles  outside of London are going to get hammered.

That circle is now a job less wasteland.

Lower paying orgs left to cheaper areas.

Higher paying ones moved into London.

All thats left is single parents.

Totally ar dependent in an area where congestion is horrendous. Be lucky to go 30miles in 1h.

Few people with jobs face double of whammy of expensive car to drive to station, then expensive rail ticket into London.

 

 

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

Hooray, Halifax has saved the country, house prices up 1.1% in a month.

18 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

“We’re seeing landlords coming off rates of 3.5% and being unable to remortgage because, according to the lender’s stress test, their loan is no longer affordable. Unable to secure a new deal and with nowhere else to go their loans are reverting to the lenders standard variable rate, which average about 7.5%.

 

Dont the rent rises pay for the higher mortgage ?

Edited March 7, 2023 by HousePriceMania

[haroldshand]

12 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Hooray, Halifax has saved the country, house prices up 1.1% in a month.

Dont the rent rises pay for the higher mortgage ?

Just logged onto TOS for the first time in ages and as usual for a website that should be more specialised in the property market and more importantly a crash it so badly looks in the wrong direction for data and always gets it so wrong, I nearly started laughing for real at some of the posters now wanting to cut their wrists or jump off a building because of this Halifax data.

Just to get one thing straight from the start THE PROPERTY MARKET CRASH IS STILL FULLY ONGOING, and I am/was the biggest fence sitter on DOSBODS. And even though in the last 6 months the indicies are confirming a property correction it is totally the wrong set of data to be looking at right now. Interest rates have risen dramatically as have mortgages, the reality is even though inflation is reducing it is still massively high, in short and in very rapid time peoples monthly expenses have shot up overnight compared to the booming 2010's where you could budget to the nearest penny and many did.

The data I am totally focused on right now is unsecured borrowing such as personal loans and the good old credit card, that data tells a dozen  stories right now and the main one is of people desperately trying to hold on until  tomorrow "when things get better and go back to normal" and where inflation goes to 2% and the BOE base rate goes back to 1%. Unsecured borrowing in the last year has shot up and is the final nail in the coffin for many who can only hold on so long.

The likes of TOS did they really think normal people just throw the towel in overnight and say "fair cop" as they reduce their property values by 20% a month, no they desperately fight to the bitter end until they are forced to face reality.

[HousePriceMania]

 

[AWW]

Why are people fretting about monthly data when the trend is obvious and transaction levels are on their arse?

[HousePriceMania]

28 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

Just logged onto TOS for the first time in ages and as usual for a website that should be more specialised in the property market and more importantly a crash it so badly looks in the wrong direction for data and always gets it so wrong, I nearly started laughing for real at some of the posters now wanting to cut their wrists or jump off a building because of this Halifax data.

Just to get one thing straight from the start THE PROPERTY MARKET CRASH IS STILL FULLY ONGOING, and I am/was the biggest fence sitter on DOSBODS. And even though in the last 6 months the indicies are confirming a property correction it is totally the wrong set of data to be looking at right now. Interest rates have risen dramatically as have mortgages, the reality is even though inflation is reducing it is still massively high, in short and in very rapid time peoples monthly expenses have shot up overnight compared to the booming 2010's where you could budget to the nearest penny and many did.

The data I am totally focused on right now is unsecured borrowing such as personal loans and the good old credit card, that data tells a dozen  stories right now and the main one is of people desperately trying to hold on until  tomorrow "when things get better and go back to normal" and where inflation goes to 2% and the BOE base rate goes back to 1%. Unsecured borrowing in the last year has shot up and is the final nail in the coffin for many who can only hold on so long.

The likes of TOS did they really think normal people just throw the towel in overnight and say "fair cop" as they reduce their property values by 20% a month, no they desperately fight to the bitter end until they are forced to face reality.

100% agree.

I think after years of outright market rigging people are just sick of this madness and want reality to strike.

It's worth remembering that the criminals in power introduced the stamp duty cut and that might have an effect on the data too.

The price of new stuff being listed on right move is eye watering, the agents dont look like they are throwing in the towel for sure, maybe they expect the budget to bail them out again, maybe they'll be rught.

 

[JoeDavola]

25 minutes ago, AWW said:

Why are people fretting about monthly data when the trend is obvious and transaction levels are on their arse?

I guess in part because they're wondering how long the market can stumble along with these low transaction levels coupled with a refusal to reduce prices.

There could easily be 5 years of very low transaction levels with what little activity does happen in the market fuelled by the Bank of Boomer and said boomers trying to swap houses with each other and not letting them go "for less than they're worth".

There has been very little of quality coming on the market for 3+ years now and I expect that to continue as most people just don't want to or can't afford to move.

The only thing that might result in some additions to the market (beyond divorce and death) is the exit of BTL-ers but then again those houses are often in bad nick and not the most desirable.

One trick I'm noticing locally which signifies a slight shift is that the kite-flying prices are now prefixed by "asking price" or "offers around" whereas last year it might have been "offers over".

But even so I imagine if someone made an offer say 10% under asking they'd be told not to waste the seller's time. And the market would need to drop about 20% to go back to what it was pre-pandemic when IR's were far lower and the inflation hadn't kicked off.

Edited March 7, 2023 by JoeDavola

[kibuc]

9 hours ago, AWW said:

This sort of thing puzzles me. I'm seeing it quite a lot round my way. No interest at £1,475,000, but only cut the price by £25k. It's going to have absolutely no effect. Is it the agents who are deluded, or the sellers? Do we have any agents on here?

I see it every now and then.

Not giving it away for free, that's for sure.

BTW if you're tempted by the thumbnails, check out the whole thing. I've seen meth labs in better condition.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=POSTCODE^1414063&sortType=6&savedSearchId=43772306&minBedrooms=2&radius=0.25&propertyTypes=detached%2Cterraced%2Csemi-detached&includeSSTC=true

Edited March 7, 2023 by kibuc

[Frank Hovis]

35 minutes ago, AWW said:

Why are people fretting about monthly data when the trend is obvious and transaction levels are on their arse?

 

A fair point.

I suggest that it's trying to identify the point at which a trickle starts to turn into an unstoppable torrent and whether the government will step in before that occurs.

Once house prices are actually tumbling then the government won't be able to stop it but it has taken years to reach that point in past crashes.  Though not all crashes are the same.

[JoeDavola]

9 minutes ago, kibuc said:

I see it every now and then.

Not giving it away for free, that's for sure.

BTW if you're tempted by the thumbnails, check out the whole thing. I've seen meth labs in better condition.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=POSTCODE^1414063&sortType=6&savedSearchId=43772306&minBedrooms=2&radius=0.25&propertyTypes=detached%2Cterraced%2Csemi-detached&includeSSTC=true

I know a bloke in Ohio spent less than that on a 6000 square foot mansion earlier in the year.

How is the UK housing market not a meme at the moment? How is it not the laughing stock of the world?

[HousePriceMania]

 

[Wight Flight]

3 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

I know a bloke in Ohio spent less than that on a 6000 square foot mansion earlier in the year.

Might not have been the best place to buy.