Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[Herby]

1 hour ago, Henry Waddle said:

As per usual, the Guardian omits the impact of mass immigration in that article.

True. But don't a lot of the more dodgy one's going to hotels or HMO?

[roundhouse]

10 hours ago, moneyscam said:

Found this based on EPC data, shows how south east would distort an average price for England and Wales.

https://houseprices.anna.ps/

Great find! But be aware: last updated 2018 (small print at bottom).

[Herby]

21 minutes ago, roundhouse said:

Great find! But be aware: last updated 2018 (small print at bottom).

Nice find. Shame it's not been updated since then. Would be amazing if it could show you a slider showing incremental changes over the years. 👍🙌

[No One]

On 29/10/2022 at 16:33, No One said:

Like clockwork - Linear correlation, today we are up to 370 listings

This is 31% more listings than mid-summer. I should start collecting more stats, maybe work out the gradient to forecast future listing numbers, and then also try to scrub no-of-reductions and plot that as well. I could chuck IR BOE raises on another axis for comparison.

 

Sentiment Index for HPC - I use 3 different terms for accuracy as people could use different phrases in searches.

Update:

Data shows a marked decrease in the public [uk] searching for a house price crash.

But Interest rates and Bank of England are at historic highs

[roundhouse]

6 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Does that make the print edition though?

There was a similar piece in the Telegraph or Independent last year which was great but turned out to be an online only opinion post which very few would read.

That one is also an opinion post so I suspect it might be the same.

An opinion piece on The Guardian website rather than "The Guardian".

I would be happy, nay delighted, to be corrected.

It talks about Labour policy on housing so I think more likely would make the print edition?

Unfortunately it seems Labour housing policy includes Help To Buy for FTBs.  Not that price pumper again! And whilst big on council housing and home ownership it suggests buying houses off LL selling,or rather (as DB predicted) insurance companies buying them, and leasing them back to councils to renovate and rent out. That sounds fine except a big chunk of houses that could be released back from rental to OO market will then be unavailable for purchase. 

Still, at least they have put ideas out there I suppose.

[roundhouse]

Been thinking about the Halifax MOM rise. If their figs based only on mortgages, and if those people mostly buying NBs, well as others have highlighted, housebuilders have been offering incentives (10 months mortgage paid etc) in order to keep prices artificially as they were/high/higher/otherwise unaffordable.  So might this *influence* the MOM figure?

Also in December EAs here were on about the spring bounce like everything is still quite normal in housing. 

[HousePriceMania]

10 hours ago, Henry Waddle said:

As per usual, the Guardian omits the impact of mass immigration in that article.

As per usual, people who think supply and demand is the issue omits the impact of the criminal central bankers

https://positivemoney.org/2019/09/bank-of-england-confirms-positive-money-analysis-of-house-prices/

 

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

10 hours ago, roundhouse said:

Been thinking about the Halifax MOM rise. If their figs based only on mortgages, and if those people mostly buying NBs, well as others have highlighted, housebuilders have been offering incentives (10 months mortgage paid etc) in order to keep prices artificially as they were/high/higher/otherwise unaffordable.  So might this *influence* the MOM figure?

Also in December EAs here were on about the spring bounce like everything is still quite normal in housing. 

That is a great point.  So much so I raised it with Halifax...no reply of course.

 

 

Edited March 8, 2023 by HousePriceMania

[Guest]

22 hours ago, moneyscam said:

Found this based on EPC data, shows how south east would distort an average price for England and Wales.

https://houseprices.anna.ps/

There are at least 30 million people living south of the Severn-Wash line where house prices are consistently very high. That is the housing market that most of the population of England and Wales is experiencing, hardly a "distortion".

[Henry Waddle]

3 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

As per usual, people who think supply and demand is the issue omits the impact of the criminal central bankers

https://positivemoney.org/2019/09/bank-of-england-confirms-positive-money-analysis-of-house-prices/

 

 

 

So you think mass immigration has had no impact on house prices?

[moneyscam]

12 minutes ago, Darude said:

There are at least 30 million people living south of the Severn-Wash line where house prices are consistently very high. That is the housing market that most of the population of England and Wales is experiencing, hardly a "distortion".

We were discussing average price per square metre. If we assume average property sizes by type are the same across the country (unless you can show otherwise by region) then those high prices south of Severn line skew the average per sq m higher for all of England and Wales. Perhaps I should have said skew instead of distort, I hope that is clearer now.

Edited March 8, 2023 by moneyscam

[HousePriceMania]

18 minutes ago, Henry Waddle said:

So you think mass immigration has had no impact on house prices?

I think it's had an impact on people willing to invest in property but without the levered debt house prices would be no where near the levels they are now.

This is not me saying this...this is the BoE.

 

 

Edited March 8, 2023 by HousePriceMania

[HousePriceMania]

24 minutes ago, Darude said:

There are at least 30 million people living south of the Severn-Wash line where house prices are consistently very high. That is the housing market that most of the population of England and Wales is experiencing, hardly a "distortion".

S.E. also has London, where people get paid more, loads of city types willing to invest in property.

Without the QE/low IRs and a government willing to run a pyramid scam economy house prices would be much lower.

[Google247]

12 hours ago, roundhouse said:

Great find! But be aware: last updated 2018 (small print at bottom).

I was thinking that there aren't many places in the south east you can buy for less than 4000/m2 these days.

A lot of the northern stuff under 1500/m2, you couldn't even build the house for that these days

[Frank Hovis]

16 minutes ago, Google247 said:

I was thinking that there aren't many places in the south east you can buy for less than 4000/m2 these days.

A lot of the northern stuff under 1500/m2, you couldn't even build the house for that these days

 

No.  I do remember 1500/m2 for new builds but that was about 2012 when the big developers were struggling for business.  It soon went to 1750/m2 and is presumably even higher today.

Though if you take a step back from our collective housing madness why shouldn't an older house be on sale for under 1500/m2?

The fabric has aged and used up some of its life, like any second hand product.

[Herby]

1 hour ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

No.  I do remember 1500/m2 for new builds but that was about 2012 when the big developers were struggling for business.  It soon went to 1750/m2 and is presumably even higher today.

Though if you take a step back from our collective housing madness why shouldn't an older house be on sale for under 1500/m2?

The fabric has aged and used up some of its life, like any second hand product.

There's the often quoted mantra of "well it's been standing for 130 years, it's not going to fall down now" 😔

[Axeman123]

An up-beat feel-good story from BTLegraph:

Headline: The city where house prices are already down 17pc

"House prices have already plunged by almost a fifth in some areas, in a troubling sign of a slowing property market. The biggest drop was in Southampton, where agreed sales prices nosedived from a peak of £463,000 in June to £383,350 last month, according to market analyst TwentyCi. The 17pc slump in the city is worse than in other postcode areas, but signs of a property downturn are evident across the market, experts have said.

The national average 'agreed sales' price has fallen 7pc from a high of £375,770 in June, to £348,910 last month. Jonathan Hopper, of buying agents Garrington Property Finders, said Southampton was facing a 'mass exodus of landlords' which had increased the supply of properties on the market and driven prices down..."

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/city-where-house-prices-already-140000941.html

[JoeDavola]

Example just came on that shows what I don't like about modern renovations, the sterile cold feeling in them everything a different shade of grey, the shiny tiles on every floor downstairs:

https://www.propertypal.com/21-cicero-gardens-belfast/809529

I do wonder if this uber-modern look will look very dated compared to a more traditional house in a decade or two.

[No One]

The Volume in my Local market has broken the slow upwards trend that was at play since we came back form the holidays.

 

[Noallegiance]

28 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Example just came on that shows what I don't like about modern renovations, the sterile cold feeling in them everything a different shade of grey, the shiny tiles on every floor downstairs:

https://www.propertypal.com/21-cicero-gardens-belfast/809529

I do wonder if this uber-modern look will look very dated compared to a more traditional house in a decade or two.

I'm more laughing at the trends for Greek-style flooring in a country where over 20 degrees is 4 months of the year, and the apparent dislike for having rooms in favour of one giant room.

Both trends = massive heating bills.

[JoeDavola]

6 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I'm more laughing at the trends for Greek-style flooring in a country where over 20 degrees is 4 months of the year, and the apparent dislike for having rooms in favour of one giant room.

Both trends = massive heating bills.

A home is supposed to be cosy - these places just remind me of hospital wiating rooms.

Oh and the giant room thing is because these are actually quite small semis that have been extended so that people forget they're actually small semis and pay near £300K for something that would have been £150K a few years ago.

Edited March 8, 2023 by JoeDavola

[Stuey]

46 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Example just came on that shows what I don't like about modern renovations, the sterile cold feeling in them everything a different shade of grey, the shiny tiles on every floor downstairs:

https://www.propertypal.com/21-cicero-gardens-belfast/809529

I do wonder if this uber-modern look will look very dated compared to a more traditional house in a decade or two.

I'm looking forward to seeing your decorating brosif. Got anywhere in mind yet? 

[JoeDavola]

6 minutes ago, Stuey said:

I'm looking forward to seeing your decorating brosif. Got anywhere in mind yet? 

You will never be seeing any photos of the inside of my gaff when I do buy one!

[sancho panza]

bit of a nice summary but known to many on here i gues.Interesting stats on mortgage payments going from £1279 to £2041

[tank]

On 07/03/2023 at 23:00, moneyscam said:

Found this based on EPC data, shows how south east would distort an average price for England and Wales.

https://houseprices.anna.ps/

Capital flight from the shithole on the Thames. 

Notice how the London money doesn't really spill into Wales nor much of the North suggesting that there are limits to the Tory Party's so called levelling up plan.

If Scotland was factored in, it would look similar with bits of red around Edinburgh and Glasgow but otherwise relatively affordable. 

Edited March 8, 2023 by tank