Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time

[spygirl]

Londoners more likely to struggle with mortgages than rest of UK, says regulator

High house prices leave capital particularly exposed to rising home loan costs, Financial Conduct Authority warns

https://www.ft.com/content/8a678073-0983-434f-844b-c0c4c4fdf1a8

Well, Doh!

 

You that hear that whoosing sound?

That IR going up and all the well payign jobs leaving London.

London is going back to the jobless poverty riddled shithole it was pre Big Bang in 1985.

Just with a lot more mgriants.

 

 

[sancho panza]

Some histoircal transactions data from the land reg.They're still not publishing Nov Data.

I've put in bold where key transactions volume changes precede price changes

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/monthly-property-transactions-completed-in-the-uk-with-value-40000-or-above

Month and year UK UK (seasonally adjusted) April 2005 107,190 109,680 May 2005 109,010 110,270 June 2005 124,660 112,460 July 2005 129,170 113,610 April 2007 126,450 136,980 May 2007 140,110 139,920 June 2007 161,680 139,530 July 2007 151,390 137,980 August 2007 162,330 137,040 September 2007 129,210 133,260 October 2007 133,700 124,980 November 2007 134,320 119,940 December 2007 107,680 109,440 January 2008 79,350 103,660 February 2008 84,540 99,300 March 2008 82,050 91,920 October 2008 72,020 62,890 November 2008 54,910 55,610 December 2008 59,180 56,400 January 2009 41,060 51,660 February 2009 42,750 55,930 March 2009 57,990 63,250 October 2013 101,920 94,870 November 2013 109,670 99,190 December 2013 104,700 100,380 January 2014 87,280 104,010 February 2014 85,940 105,380

March 2020 86,920 90,910 April 2020 37,350 42,270 May 2020 46,160 48,100 June 2020 67,430 63,570 July 2020 80,660 72,010 August 2020 85,050 81,890 September 2020 99,070 95,860 October 2020 121,740 106,710 November 2020 121,180 115,410 December 2020 132,900 127,630 January 2021 97,810 118,750 February 2021 121,260 141,290 March 2021 174,080 176,120 April 2021 113,790 120,640 May 2021 102,980 114,080 June 2021 214,540 205,620 July 2021 83,520 76,150 November 2022 [provisional] 112,050 103,610 December 2022 [provisional] 106,690 99,260 January 2023 [provisional estimates] 77,390 96,650 End of worksheet

[HousePriceMania]

Just now, spygirl said:

Londoners more likely to struggle with mortgages than rest of UK, says regulator

High house prices leave capital particularly exposed to rising home loan costs, Financial Conduct Authority warns

https://www.ft.com/content/8a678073-0983-434f-844b-c0c4c4fdf1a8

Well, Doh!

 

You that hear that whoosing sound?

That IR going up and all the well payign jobs leaving London.

London is going back to the jobless poverty riddled shithole it was pre Big Bang in 1985.

Just with a lot more mgriants.

 

 

Idiots who bought expensive houses in the most expensive areas at the peak of a bubble mania...to suffer the most.

While, they hoped to profit the most.

 

The phraseology is sickening. 

[No One]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Speaking to a friend yesterday whose Mrs is trying to buy a hosue and the prices are somtimes delusional,even now.He had a chat with a frined of his who's a former CEO of a small building society and was told that they call it 'vendors premium'. ie you take the EA's reccommendation (which in the fomer CEO's experience is geared to getting a transaction) then add the 'vendors premium' and you get the asking price.

I'd never heard of that before.It explains a lot to me about where we are asking price wise given transaction levels msut be murdering the EA's.

Transactions data on RM is 6 months out of date

Moving Home with Charlie has a livestream about this yesterday at 8pm

[sancho panza]

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ftse-100-berkeley-group-home-sales-fall-100922548.html

FTSE 100: Berkeley Group to keep ‘cautious approach' as home sales fall 25%

London-focused housebuilder Berkeley (BKG.L) has said sales are still running 25% behind compared to a year ago, amid continued "volatility" in the UK property sector.

 

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/over-700-homeowners-a-day-at-risk-of-missing-mortgage-payment-000136429.html

There are 356,000 homeowners at risk of missing their mortgage payments, and this on top of those who are already behind, the financial regulator has warned.

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said that borrowers aged 18-34 are more likely to be financially stretched than the rest of the working age population. Those living in London and the South East are most likely to be struggling.

The regulator said that, in addition to the 200,000 mortgage borrowers who were behind on payments as of June 2022, a further 356,000 mortgage borrowers could face payment difficulties by the end of June 2024.

This figure has been revised downwards from the FCA previous estimate in September last year due to changes in market expectations of the Bank of England base rate. At that point the FCA was predicting a jump of 570,000 borrowers.

 

[Stuey]

5 hours ago, spygirl said:

Londoners more likely to struggle with mortgages than rest of UK, says regulator

High house prices leave capital particularly exposed to rising home loan costs, Financial Conduct Authority warns

https://www.ft.com/content/8a678073-0983-434f-844b-c0c4c4fdf1a8

Well, Doh!

 

You that hear that whoosing sound?

That IR going up and all the well payign jobs leaving London.

London is going back to the jobless poverty riddled shithole it was pre Big Bang in 1985.

Just with a lot more mgriants.

 

 

Yep.

It's going to be London/SE and Belfast.

Everyone else will keep on partying...

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ftse-100-berkeley-group-home-sales-fall-100922548.html

FTSE 100: Berkeley Group to keep ‘cautious approach' as home sales fall 25%

London-focused housebuilder Berkeley (BKG.L) has said sales are still running 25% behind compared to a year ago, amid continued "volatility" in the UK property sector.

 

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/over-700-homeowners-a-day-at-risk-of-missing-mortgage-payment-000136429.html

There are 356,000 homeowners at risk of missing their mortgage payments, and this on top of those who are already behind, the financial regulator has warned.

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said that borrowers aged 18-34 are more likely to be financially stretched than the rest of the working age population. Those living in London and the South East are most likely to be struggling.

The regulator said that, in addition to the 200,000 mortgage borrowers who were behind on payments as of June 2022, a further 356,000 mortgage borrowers could face payment difficulties by the end of June 2024.

This figure has been revised downwards from the FCA previous estimate in September last year due to changes in market expectations of the Bank of England base rate. At that point the FCA was predicting a jump of 570,000 borrowers.

 

Theres ~7m outstanding mrotgages.

Most will be more than half way paid - more mortgages were sold ~15-25y ago then 10y-today)

We ar heading to 1% of mrotgages in arrears.

At a guess that will be a hefty percentage of mrotgages sold inthe last 10y.

 

 

[Stuey]

2 hours ago, spygirl said:

Theres ~7m outstanding mrotgages.

Most will be more than half way paid - more mortgages were sold ~15-25y ago then 10y-today)

We ar heading to 1% of mrotgages in arrears.

At a guess that will be a hefty percentage of mrotgages sold inthe last 10y.

 

 

Outstanding mortgages are dwarfed by the Bank of Boomer ready to pounce on any "bargains" 10% below peak to be had. 

[spygirl]

19 minutes ago, Stuey said:

Outstanding mortgages are dwarfed by the Bank of Boomer ready to pounce on any "bargains" 10% below peak to be had. 

Bank of boomer have fuck all free cash.

Most 55+ haven't a pot.

[Stuey]

2 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Bank of boomer have fuck all free cash.

Most 55+ haven't a pot.

They've got £100s of k and only cruises to spend it on 

[Guest]

18 hours ago, spygirl said:

Theres ~7m outstanding mrotgages.

Most will be more than half way paid - more mortgages were sold ~15-25y ago then 10y-today)

We ar heading to 1% of mrotgages in arrears.

At a guess that will be a hefty percentage of mrotgages sold inthe last 10y.

 

 

Yes, the rise of BTL and decline in mortgaged owner occupiership means the pain of rising interest rates and falling/negative equity is going to be concentrated on a small part of the population, probably something like 15% of households.

It's not like the early 1990s when mortgaged owner occupiership was by far the largest housing tenure.

One issue is that many journalists are working age London/SE residents with huge mortgages so they like to write about the economy as if every household is sitting on several hundred grand in debt when really they are the outliers.

Edited March 11, 2023 by Guest

[spygirl]

1 minute ago, Darude said:

Yes, the rise of BTL and decline in mortgaged owner occupiership means the pain of rising interest rates and falling/negative equity is going to be concentrated on a small part of the population, probably something like 15% of households.

It's not like the early 1990s when mortgaged owner occupiership was by far the largest housing tenure.

One issue is that many journalists are working age London/SE residents with huge mortgages so they like to write about the economy as if every household is sitting on several hundred grand in debt when really they are the outliers.

Youve also got all the unresolved resi IO mortgage from 2002 -> MMR (2014ish) when they banned

BoE, despite, Herculean efforts, have only managed to get 50% of the IO lump cleared - moved to repayment, RIO etc etc.

The people whove had the IO mortgages sorted tend to be younger/higher earners/more flush or old and more equity (hence RIO)

The remaining 50% are stuck. Too poor, too little equity , too stupid-

https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/research/fca-interest-only-mortgage-review.pdf

These mortgages are starting to end  over  the next 10y.

Put it this way, theres probably going to be more IO mortgage ending each month than there are mortgage being sold (sub 50k).

In somewhere like Scabby, where there was huge levels of piss poor IO mortgage for resi, loads of IO BTL and a very high percentage of OAPs households and low incomes....

Clusterfuck of supply.

 

[spygirl]

Id add that the early 90s UK demographics were still favourable - lots of young people i nte workforce.

Now, 30y on, theres lot of OAPs looking to unroll properdee positions - Its me pension innit.

 

 

[Ash4781b]

1 hour ago, Darude said:

Yes, the rise of BTL and decline in mortgaged owner occupiership means the pain of rising interest rates and falling/negative equity is going to be concentrated on a small part of the population, probably something like 15% of households.

It's not like the early 1990s when mortgaged owner occupiership was by far the largest housing tenure.

One issue is that many journalists are working age London/SE residents with huge mortgages so they like to write about the economy as if every household is sitting on several hundred grand in debt when really they are the outliers.

I have a concern that with many age 50+ reportedly reducing workforce participation this means limited spare capacity in the labour market. They can’t import this labour because it will be skilled. If the days of ‘cheap’ energy’ are over this suggests to me much higher inflation and interest rates. I see lots of price pressures in the supply chain. It’s relentless. I don’t understand where this rates will peak at 4.5% comes from. My gut is base rates are going to 5.5-6%. It’s the same as when we were at 0.5%. But if one is retired with no mortgage where’s the problem ?a lot of  Interest only BTL will be a disaster zone. It’s pretty much going as I expected with more and more articles on BTL models breaking down.
 

 

[Democorruptcy]

Impressively fast cliff collapse 17ft in a week, how long before it takes houses on the West coast?

 

Quote

 

Sue, who did not want to give her surname, said she wished more could have been done to save her home of three years.

This time last week there was up to 20ft between her property and the cliff edge, and now there was just 3ft.

She was told she would have to get planning permission for her home to be moved back from the cliff edge but there was not enough time.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-64924782

 

 

 

 

[Ash4781b]

5 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Impressively fast cliff collapse 17ft in a week, how long before it takes houses on the West coast?

 

 

 

 

Also impressive that the planning process would progress at same speed. Planning agreed! Great but my house fell into the sea months ago

[Red Debt Redemption]

On 12/02/2023 at 19:11, JoeDavola said:

Yep, a point we have disussed here before, you're the first one I remember mentioning it.

Expensive "family" homes with not one room you could comfortably sit a family of 4 or 5, and no dining table.

(The second one does have a dining table however in the corner of the open plan kitchen.)

I suspect the days when working class people could have expected to own a house with enough room for a the a dining table are gone. It's eating on the sofa for them, in front of a wall mounted telly.

Lucky if there is 3 living in the house to sit round a dining table.

[Frank Hovis]

22 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Impressively fast cliff collapse 17ft in a week, how long before it takes houses on the West coast?

 

 

 

 

 

The report on which houses would be allowed to be lost to the sea has been available since 2018.

It very clearly shows for Hemsby which houses would be allowed to fall into the sea, and which wouldn't.

Yellow means "managed realignment", as in everything shaded yellow will be allowed to go.

Yet the people interviewed say they bought four or three years ago, when they were buying a house that had already been marked to be allowed to fall into the sea.

Well they're braver than I am.

 

https://onehome.org.uk/campaign/campaigns/coast/interactive-map/#map

[spygirl]

5 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

The report on which houses would be allowed to be lost to the sea has been available since 2018.

It very clearly shows for Hemsby which houses would be allowed to fall into the sea, and which wouldn't.

Yellow means "managed realignment", as in everything shaded yellow will be allowed to go.

Yet the people interviewed say they bought four or three years ago, when they were buying a house that had already been marked to be allowed to fall into the sea.

Well they're braver than I am.

 

https://onehome.org.uk/campaign/campaigns/coast/interactive-map/#map

My mums about 150m from a cliff south, 100m East from a cliff - the road goes along a pointy out bit.

Have you read the EA cliff report I asked?

No she said.

The report for our village is quite specific as it puts a number to the houses they expect to lose in the next 50y.

It's pretty easy to work out. Mums isnt one - the house ought to be fine for 150+ y.

Anyhow, 150m South is one where it will go. Just in my lifetime theyve gone from having a 40m garden to 20m.

This road pretty much follows the cliff. The big pub has had panes of glass screwed into the cellar to detect any movement.

Anyhow, I mention this as the woman in house was trying yo sell it a few years ago, going - Weve not had any offers.

I said - Do you have a cliff survey?

And she goes - Well there was an issue when we bought it. We could not get a mortgage...

I'd reckon the last 5 houses on mums street are unmortgable.

And I reckon one @One percent posted one last week is also unmortgageble.

You need a good 100m of stable ish to get a mainstream mortgage.

 

 

 

[One percent]

3 minutes ago, spygirl said:

My mums about 150m from a cliff south, 100m East from a cliff - the road goes along a pointy out bit.

Have you read the EA cliff report I asked?

No she said.

The report for our village is quite specific as it puts a number to the houses they expect to lose in the next 50y.

It's pretty easy to work out. Mums isnt one - the house ought to be fine for 150+ y.

Anyhow, 150m South is one where it will go. Just in my lifetime theyve gone from having a 40m garden to 20m.

This road pretty much follows the cliff. The big pub has had panes of glass screwed into the cellar to detect any movement.

Anyhow, I mention this as the woman in house was trying yo sell it a few years ago, going - Weve not had any offers.

I said - Do you have a cliff survey?

And she goes - Well there was an issue when we bought it. We could not get a mortgage...

I'd reckon the last 5 houses on mums street are unmortgable.

And I reckon one @One percent posted one last week is also unmortgageble.

You need a good 100m of stable ish to get a mainstream mortgage.

 

 

 

What did I post last week?     was it the foghorn?  

[spygirl]

27 minutes ago, One percent said:

What did I post last week?     was it the 

One you were surprised it was a local.

[HousePriceMania]

Weekly run from property lion showing a £1k asking price increase with supply still rising

 

So a definitely an unwelcome spring bounce 

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Weekly run from property lion showing a £1k asking price increase with supply still rising

 

So a definitely an unwelcome spring bounce 

Asking prices are so last decade

[reformed nice guy]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

Asking prices are so last decade

Asking prices are so last decade

THE DAY OF THE ASKING PRICE IS OVER

[JoeDavola]

Saw a stat that NI is up 5% this year i.e. the IR rises have not stopped the price rises.

As mentioned my folks house is being listed at 10% higher than it was listed just before all the IR rises started.

The test of course will be, will it sell and if it does will they actually find anywhere to move to.